Riding-by-Riding Projection January 14

Province Region Riding CPC LPC NDP GPC BQ OTH

Alberta Calgary Calgary – Nosehill 61.27 18.12 8.66 10.57 0 1.14
Alberta Calgary Calgary Centre 50.4 19.3 11.29 16.82 0 1.94
Alberta Calgary Calgary Centre-North 50.92 16.6 14.1 16.29 0 1.85
Alberta Calgary Calgary East 58.8 14.24 11.74 13.03 0 1.94
Alberta Calgary Calgary Northeast 50.45 22.86 8.56 8.29 0 9.59
Alberta Calgary Calgary Southeast 64.81 13.82 7.63 12.44 0 1.05
Alberta Calgary Calgary Southwest 66.54 12.42 7.81 11.35 0 1.63
Alberta Calgary Calgary West 53.37 22.96 6.87 13.35 0 3.2
Alberta Edmonton Edmonton – St. Albert 54.94 19.2 14.45 10.19 0 0.97
Alberta Edmonton Edmonton Centre 46.64 28.77 12.85 9.87 0 1.62
Alberta Edmonton Edmonton East 43.48 20.99 25.19 8.71 0 1.39
Alberta Edmonton Edmonton--Leduc 53.95 21.82 12.61 10.21 0 1.15
Alberta Edmonton Edmonton--Mill 51.33 24.34 14.28 8.36 0 1.44
Woods--Beaumont
Alberta Edmonton Edmonton--Sherwood 39.73 16.3 12.85 10.4 0 20.47
Park
Alberta Edmonton Edmonton--Spruce 60.49 16.31 11.89 10.1 0 0.97
Grove
Alberta Edmonton Edmonton-- 38.03 15.06 35.55 9.45 0 1.66
Strathcona
Alberta Rural Alberta Crowfoot 73.5 8.81 7.72 8.75 0 0.97
Alberta Rural Alberta Fort McMurray-- 56.33 15.94 15.08 9.17 0 3.23
Athabasca
Alberta Rural Alberta Lethbridge 60.42 13.16 13.53 8.73 0 3.92
Alberta Rural Alberta Macleod 70.51 9.19 6.75 11.13 0 2.16
Alberta Rural Alberta Medicine Hat 67.89 9.39 10.11 8.33 0 4.03
Alberta Rural Alberta Peace River 59.71 10.74 13.21 9.09 0 6.99
Alberta Rural Alberta Red Deer 68.08 9.37 10.44 10.72 0 1.14
Alberta Rural Alberta Vegreville-- 69.83 8.3 9.37 10.89 0 1.36
Wainwright
Alberta Rural Alberta Westlock--St. Paul 64.69 13.63 10.01 9.15 0 2.27
Alberta Rural Alberta Wetaskiwin 70.09 8.97 8.7 10.5 0 1.47
Alberta Rural Alberta Wild Rose 66.37 9.28 8.13 14.64 0 1.33
Alberta Rural Alberta Yellowhead 65.17 8.02 11.96 11.29 0 3.31
British Columbia Interior British Columbia 25.23 13.08 48.38 13.39 0 -0.32
Southern Interior
British Columbia Interior Cariboo--Prince 47.25 14.08 26.88 9.94 0 1.59
George
British Columbia Interior Chilliwack--Fraser 52.94 13.31 20.96 11.51 0 1.02
Canyon
British Columbia Interior Kamloops-- 38.32 15.43 35.61 10.93 0 -0.54
Thompson--Cariboo
British Columbia Interior Kelowna--Lake 47.76 18.32 18.19 15.55 0 -0.07
Country

Aaron Ginsberg All Politics Is Local

 Riding-by-Riding Projection January 14
British Columbia Interior Kootenay--Columbia 51.88 9.71 26.05 12.7 0 -0.59
British Columbia Interior Okanagan-- 49.62 15.36 20.14 15 0 -0.36
Coquihalla
British Columbia Interior Okanagan--Shuswap 43.92 14.03 24.57 16.31 0 0.91
British Columbia Interior Prince George--Peace 56.67 10.05 20.37 12.94 0 -0.27
River
British Columbia Interior Skeena--Bulkley 29.87 8.71 49.46 8.25 0 3.45
Valley
British Columbia Lower-Mainland Abbotsford 57.73 14.95 16.66 9.96 0 0.45
British Columbia Lower-Mainland Fleetwood--Port Kells 35.28 26.98 26.62 9.63 0 1.23
British Columbia Lower-Mainland Langley 51.92 15.15 19.64 12.24 0 0.8
British Columbia Lower-Mainland Newton--North Delta 25.85 34.14 30.48 9.01 0 0.27
British Columbia Lower-Mainland Pitt Meadows--Maple 42 12.12 34.95 10.2 0 0.48
Ridge--Mission
British Columbia Lower-Mainland South Surrey--White 46.82 24.73 16.61 11.81 0 -0.22
Rock--Cloverdale
British Columbia Lower-Mainland Surrey North 27.17 15.26 39.21 8.5 0 9.61
British Columbia Vancouver Burnaby--Douglas 27.67 23.84 39.14 9.28 0 -0.19
British Columbia Vancouver Burnaby--New 26.87 18.72 44.02 10.06 0 0.08
Westminster
British Columbia Vancouver Delta--Richmond East 46.03 23.46 19.67 10.95 0 -0.37
British Columbia Vancouver New Westminster-- 30.17 15.48 44.34 9.27 0 0.49
Coquitlam
British Columbia Vancouver North Vancouver 34.76 38.04 13.77 13.62 0 -0.44
British Columbia Vancouver Port Moody-- 46.57 16.72 24.7 10.49 0 1.27
Westwood--Port
Coquitlam
British Columbia Vancouver Richmond 39.58 34.87 15.27 9.84 0 0.19
British Columbia Vancouver Vancouver Centre 23.42 31.06 27.24 17.7 0 0.32
British Columbia Vancouver Vancouver East 8.85 19.07 57.7 13.43 0 0.69
British Columbia Vancouver Vancouver Kingsway 18.34 33.4 37.54 9.5 0 0.98
British Columbia Vancouver Vancouver Quadra 28.86 44.88 13.37 12.68 0 -0.04
British Columbia Vancouver Vancouver South 28.38 40.8 21.96 8.53 0 0.08
British Columbia Vancouver West Vancouver-- 35.77 29.22 19.36 15.89 0 -0.5
Sunshine Coast--Sea
to Sky Country
British Columbia Vancouver Esquimalt--Juan de 25.68 33.55 28.48 12.03 0 0
Island Fuca
British Columbia Vancouver Nanaimo--Alberni 38.95 12.15 34.43 13.88 0 0.34
British Columbia Island
Vancouver Nanaimo--Cowichan 30.24 9.68 47.82 12.26 0 -0.25
British Columbia Island
Vancouver Saanich--Gulf Islands 35.24 33.19 15.74 15.53 0 0.05
British Columbia Island
Vancouver Vancouver Island 37.68 7.95 42.9 11.5 0 -0.28
Island North
British Columbia Vancouver Victoria 20.71 21.28 43.48 14.32 0 -0.06
Manitoba Island
Rural Manitoba Brandon--Souris 54.17 11.75 16.95 16.51 0 0.38
Manitoba Rural Manitoba Churchill 32.2 31.78 24.32 8.19 0 3.27

Aaron Ginsberg All Politics Is Local

 Riding-by-Riding Projection January 14
Manitoba Rural Manitoba Dauphin--Swan 58.24 14.63 16.23 10.46 0 0.19
River--Marquette
Manitoba Rural Manitoba Portage--Lisgar 66.85 12.3 6.94 11.85 0 1.8
Manitoba Rural Manitoba Provencher 63.23 14.55 10.74 10.47 0 0.75
Manitoba Rural Manitoba Selkirk--Interlake 54.24 9.55 26.44 9.74 0 -0.22
Manitoba Winnipeg Charleswood--St. 49.21 26.83 13.86 10.57 0 -0.73
James--Assiniboia
Manitoba Winnipeg Elmwood--Transcona 37.97 8.19 43.33 10.16 0 0.1
Manitoba Winnipeg Kildonan--St. Paul 46.96 17.34 26.44 9.09 0 -0.09
Manitoba Winnipeg Saint Boniface 39.72 36.33 14.43 9.66 0 -0.4
Manitoba Winnipeg Winnipeg Centre 18.46 19.28 46.65 14.41 0 0.94
Manitoba Winnipeg Winnipeg North 18.23 14.92 57.48 9.24 0 -0.12
Manitoba Winnipeg Winnipeg South 39.75 36.32 13.88 9.74 0 0.07
Manitoba Winnipeg Winnipeg South 35.78 42 11.97 10.95 0 -0.95
Centre
New Brunswick ALL Acadie--Bathurst 17 22.78 55.79 5.29 0 -1.11
New Brunswick ALL Beauséjour 29.85 45.02 17.24 8.96 0 -1.33
New Brunswick ALL Fredricton 39.23 33.43 17.88 10.32 0 -1.11
New Brunswick ALL Fundy Royal 49.8 19.49 22.65 9.04 0 -1.23
New Brunswick ALL Madawaska-- 32.45 41.71 19.98 7.06 0 -1.46
Restigouche
New Brunswick ALL Miramichi 38.17 37.04 17.97 6.83 0 -0.28
New Brunswick ALL Moncton--Riverview-- 32.57 41.34 17.12 10.09 0 -1.38
Dieppe
New Brunswick ALL New Brunswick 53.76 22.01 17.39 7.76 0 -1.18
Southwest
New Brunswick ALL Saint John 41.58 35.38 15.99 7.62 0 -0.82
New Brunswick ALL Tobique--Mactaquac 51.36 27.91 14.05 7.81 0 -1.4
Newfoundland ALL Avalon 42.67 40.04 12.04 4.24 0 0.76
and Labrador
Newfoundland ALL Bonavista--Gander-- 29.69 56.89 8.14 4.06 0 0.97
and Labrador Grand Falls--Windsor
Newfoundland ALL Humber--St. Barbe-- 21.85 57.99 13.88 2.98 0 3.04
and Labrador Baie Verte
Newfoundland ALL Labrador 22.59 57.81 12.1 5.24 0 2.02
and Labrador
Newfoundland ALL Random--Burin--St. 29.48 45.07 20.03 4.34 0 0.82
and Labrador George's
Newfoundland ALL St. John’s East 27.69 16.26 49.79 3.93 0 2.08
and Labrador
Newfoundland ALL St. John’s South- 28.93 33.99 31.02 4.03 0 1.78
and Labrador Mount Pearl
Northwest ALL Western Arctic 26.03 21.75 41.05 9.23 0 1.68
Territories
Nova Scotia ALL Cape Breton--Canso 24.16 47.35 22.54 8.79 0 -3.1

Aaron Ginsberg All Politics Is Local

 Riding-by-Riding Projection January 14
Nova Scotia ALL Central Nova 45.6 7.3 25.33 23.58 0 -2.06
Nova Scotia ALL Cumberland-- 37.95 16.09 20.62 5.44 0 19.65
Colchester--
Musquodoboit Valley
Nova Scotia ALL Dartmouth--Cole 23.35 37.79 33.1 8.09 0 -2.59
Harbour
Nova Scotia ALL Halifax 20.04 27.36 44.77 10.36 0 -2.78
Nova Scotia ALL Halifax West 22.54 41.63 29.26 9.06 0 -2.74
Nova Scotia ALL Kings--Hants 26.81 42.11 21.81 8.28 0 -1.71
Nova Scotia ALL Sackville-- Eastern 22.08 14.87 58.14 7.45 0 -2.85
Shore
Nova Scotia ALL South Shore -- St. 37.48 23.45 32.4 7.96 0 -1.48
Margaret’s
Nova Scotia ALL Sydney--Victoria 20.31 47.13 27.12 7.93 0 -2.8
Nova Scotia ALL West Nova 39.4 35.07 19.22 7.52 0 -1.52
Nunavut ALL Nunavut 26.25 34.14 22.88 11.77 0 4.71
Ontario Eastern Ontario Carleton--Mississippi 51.66 24.82 9.93 13.12 0 0.22
Mills
Ontario Eastern Ontario Glengarry--Prescott-- 42.65 37.41 9.92 9.73 0 0.05
Russell
Ontario Eastern Ontario Haliburton--Kawartha 48.15 25.66 13.8 11.68 0 0.45
Lakes--Brock
Ontario Eastern Ontario Kingston and the 26.61 42.39 16.24 14.14 0 0.35
Islands
Ontario Eastern Ontario Lanark--Frontenac-- 51 23.81 12.07 11.93 0 0.93
Lennox and
Addington
Ontario Eastern Ontario Nepean--Carleton 51.2 26.64 9.32 12.58 0 0
Ontario Eastern Ontario Northumberland-- 42.55 31.74 14.04 11.61 0 -0.19
Quinte West
Ontario Eastern Ontario Ottawa Centre 19.81 27.17 37.69 14.34 0 0.74
Ontario Eastern Ontario Ottawa South 31.75 47.15 8.93 10.86 0 1.06
Ontario Eastern Ontario Ottawa West--Nepean 40.8 36.04 11.37 10.53 0 1
Ontario Eastern Ontario Ottawa--Orléans 40.38 39.4 9.7 10.16 0 0.11
Ontario Eastern Ontario Ottawa--Vanier 24.3 45.27 16.97 12.57 0 0.63
Ontario Eastern Ontario Peterborough 39.33 33.19 16.09 10.96 0 0.18
Ontario Eastern Ontario Prince Edward-- 45.77 29.39 12.74 11.42 0 0.43
Hastings
Ontario Eastern Ontario Stormont--Dundas-- 51.92 23.31 11.61 9.17 0 3.73
South Glengarry
Ontario Golden Ajax – Pickering 33.09 46.11 8.96 10.84 0 0.74
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Ancaster--Dundas-- 40 30.44 17.14 12.01 0 0.16
Horsehoe/905 Flamborough--
Westdale
Ontario Golden Bramalea--Gore-- 32.16 46.76 11.07 9.38 0 0.37
Horsehoe/905 Malton

Aaron Ginsberg All Politics Is Local

 Riding-by-Riding Projection January 14
Ontario Golden Brampton West 35.99 42.86 10.98 9.99 0 -0.07
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Brampton-- 32.53 43.2 12.83 11.11 0 0.08
Horsehoe/905 Springdale
Ontario Golden Brant 36.28 34.41 17.42 10.84 0 0.8
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Burlington 42.63 34.86 11.33 10.94 0 0
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Dufferin--Caledon 47.45 24.52 8.77 18.62 0 0.38
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Durham 45.1 29.94 10.59 13.35 0 0.77
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Haldimand--Norfolk 40.01 33.44 10.73 8.65 0 6.92
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Halton 42.42 38.93 7.19 11.08 0 0.11
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Hamilton Centre 17.85 21.09 47.75 11.61 0 1.45
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Hamilton East-- 21.2 30.79 37.64 8.55 0 1.57
Horsehoe/905 Stoney Creek
Ontario Golden Hamilton Mountain 26.71 24.91 38.99 9.07 0 0.06
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Markham--Unionville 27.78 54.03 8.74 8.35 0 0.84
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Mississauga East-- 28.45 51.14 9.91 9.06 0 1.19
Horsehoe/905 Cooksville
Ontario Golden Mississauga South 35.95 44.91 8.02 10.86 0 0
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Mississauga-- 28.23 50.28 10.5 10.17 0 0.57
Horsehoe/905 Brampton South
Ontario Golden Mississauga--Erindale 37.35 44.16 7.82 10.26 0 0.15
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Mississauga-- 32.07 46.15 9.16 10.68 0 1.68
Horsehoe/905 Streetsville
Ontario Golden Newmarket--Aurora 41.02 37.9 7.46 11.52 0 1.85
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Niagara Falls 41.04 29.91 17.58 11.47 0 -0.25
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Oak Ridges-- 37.09 44.03 7.9 10.36 0 0.36
Horsehoe/905 Markham
Ontario Golden Oakville 41.15 40.5 6.5 11.81 0 -0.22
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Oshawa 36.6 19.77 32.5 10.46 0 0.42
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Pickering-- 28.76 51.14 9.42 10.15 0 0.29
Horsehoe/905 Scarborough East

Aaron Ginsberg All Politics Is Local

 Riding-by-Riding Projection January 14
Ontario Golden Richmond Hill 30.25 49.97 8.36 11.01 0 0.16
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden St. Catharines 39.24 32.09 17.53 10.36 0 0.53
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Thornhill 40.12 44.7 5.44 8.99 0 0.49
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Vaughan 27.77 53.5 7.61 10.6 0 0.26
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Welland 27.75 31.17 30.31 9.33 0 1.19
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Whitby--Oshawa 44.1 31.46 12.43 11.4 0 0.36
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden York--Simcoe 49.91 23.82 10.81 13.34 0 1.87
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Northern Ontario Algoma--Manitoulin-- 17 34.79 39.16 8.6 0 0.2
Kapuskasing
Ontario Northern Ontario Kenora 33.36 33.13 24.69 8.76 0 -0.19
Ontario Northern Ontario Nickel Belt 16.11 32.57 41.23 8.65 0 1.19
Ontario Northern Ontario Nipissing-- 30.69 43.88 14.83 10.16 0 0.18
Timiskaming
Ontario Northern Ontario Parry Sound-- 42.72 31.19 10.58 15.02 0 0.23
Muskoka
Ontario Northern Ontario Renfrew--Nipissing-- 56.47 22.45 9.87 9.94 0 1.01
Pembroke
Ontario Northern Ontario Sault Ste. Marie 29.22 23.72 38.18 8.17 0 0.47
Ontario Northern Ontario Sudbury 21.18 34.74 32 10.8 0 1.02
Ontario Northern Ontario Thunder Bay--Rainy 22.05 33.67 35.47 8.14 0 0.42
River
Ontario Northern Ontario Thunder Bay-- 21.9 32.04 33.81 11 0 1
Superior North
Ontario Northern Ontario Timmins--James Bay 13.95 27.43 51.24 7.31 0 -0.19
Ontario Southwestern Barrie 45.05 30.14 10.32 14.07 0 0.17
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Bruce--Grey--Owen 43.54 21.82 8.69 25.06 0 0.64
Ontario Sound
Ontario Southwestern Cambridge 44.76 27.14 16.03 11.92 0 -0.1
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Chatham-Kent--Essex 42.68 30.62 16.17 10.14 0 0.14
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Elgin--Middlesex-- 42.81 25.77 18.47 10.79 0 1.9
Ontario London
Ontario Southwestern Essex 35.49 34.32 21.6 8.45 0 -0.11
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Guelph 26 35.21 19.7 17.92 0 0.92
Ontario

Aaron Ginsberg All Politics Is Local

 Riding-by-Riding Projection January 14
Ontario Southwestern Huron--Bruce 38.17 36.83 13.51 9.21 0 2.02
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Kitchener Centre 31.31 39.03 16.84 12.05 0 0.52
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Kitchener--Conestoga 42.32 30.5 13.56 13.5 0 -0.13
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Kitchener--Waterloo 30.29 40.13 14.16 14.45 0 0.72
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Lambton--Kent-- 46.81 26.82 14.04 10.71 0 1.36
Ontario Middlesex
Ontario Southwestern Leeds--Grenville 49.95 22.46 14.25 12.65 0 0.44
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern London North Centre 28.44 39.26 16.3 15.6 0 0.15
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern London West 33.41 35.98 17.14 12.4 0 0.82
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern London--Fanshawe 26.23 29.05 34.27 9.97 0 0.23
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Niagara West-- 46.22 27.52 13.58 10.55 0 1.87
Ontario Glanbrook
Ontario Southwestern Oxford 47.12 22.84 15.8 10.72 0 3.27
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Perth--Wellington 43.82 25.28 15.67 12.69 0 2.28
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Sarnia--Lambton 41.95 26.35 18.89 10.48 0 2.08
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Simcoe North 42.71 32.32 10.72 13.79 0 0.21
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Simcoe--Grey 48.66 26.34 9.49 12.91 0 2.34
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Wellington--Halton 50.78 26.01 8.98 12.95 0 1.03
Ontario Hills
Ontario Southwestern Windsor West 18.55 21.81 49.24 9.43 0 0.71
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Windsor--Tecumseh 20.88 23.89 45.13 9.89 0 -0.04
Ontario
Ontario Toronto Beaches--East York 14.01 41.49 31.32 12.63 0 0.3
Ontario Toronto Davenport 7.82 47.65 30.53 12.58 0 1.16
Ontario Toronto Don Valley East 27.22 50.15 11.66 10.3 0 0.42
Ontario Toronto Don Valley West 32.98 48.55 8.16 9.9 0 0.16
Ontario Toronto Eglinton--Lawrence 34.85 44.35 8.58 11.65 0 0.32
Ontario Toronto Etobicoke Centre 30.74 51.55 7.7 9.21 0 0.55
Ontario Toronto Etobicoke North 25.36 51.7 12.72 8.88 0 1.08
Ontario Toronto Etobicoke--Lakeshore 32.48 45.35 10.66 11 0 0.26

Aaron Ginsberg All Politics Is Local

 Riding-by-Riding Projection January 14
Ontario Toronto Parkdale--High Park 11.14 40.69 35.36 11.65 0 0.9
Ontario Toronto Scarborough Centre 25.51 51.16 13.97 9.29 0 -0.19
Ontario Toronto Scarborough 24.4 44.06 18.88 12.13 0 0.28
Southwest
Ontario Toronto Scarborough-- 23.87 58.82 8.35 8.45 0 0.25
Agincourt
Ontario Toronto Scarborough-- 25.83 51.67 13.1 9.12 0 0.03
Guildwood
Ontario Toronto Scarborough--Rouge 17.85 59.97 11.39 7.18 0 3.36
River
Ontario Toronto St. Paul’s 22.77 51.28 13.32 12.21 0 0.17
Ontario Toronto Toronto Centre 14.14 54.14 15.8 14.79 0 0.88
Ontario Toronto Toronto--Danforth 7.49 32 44.41 15.24 0 0.6
Ontario Toronto Trinity – Spadina 8.96 37.17 40.77 11.73 0 1.12
Ontario Toronto Willowdale 27.52 52.36 8.05 10.36 0 1.47
Ontario Toronto York Centre 31.38 47.08 11.19 9.96 0 0.12
Ontario Toronto York South--Weston 20.53 50.8 19.21 9.26 0 -0.05
Ontario Toronto York West 13.49 60.9 15.51 9.04 0 0.81
PEI ALL Cardigan 31.38 48.47 8.9 7.25 0 6.07
PEI ALL Charlottetown 32.13 44.74 13.57 8.16 0 0.97
PEI ALL Egmont 38.65 42.5 10.17 7.82 0 0.27
PEI ALL Malpeque 37.31 41.66 10.54 10.03 0 0.27

Aaron Ginsberg All Politics Is Local

 Riding-by-Riding Projection January 14
Québec Eastern Bas-Richelieu-- 14.17 18.44 5.94 6.89 51.19 2.62
Townships Nicolet--Bécancour
Québec Eastern Brome--Missisquoi 13.47 30.31 7.18 7.71 36.62 3.95
Townships
Québec Eastern Compton--Stanstead 16.29 22.73 8.19 8.42 41.07 2.54
Townships
Québec Eastern Drummond 17.81 19.41 11.33 7.3 40.84 2.55
Townships
Québec Eastern Richmond-- 22.83 14 7.1 7.17 45.01 3.15
Townships Arthabaska
Québec Eastern Shefford 15.17 24.88 8.64 7.78 40.23 2.54
Townships
Québec Eastern Sherbrooke 11.69 19.88 10.13 5.59 48.71 3.24
Townships
Québec Laurentides Berthier--Maskinongé 18.85 20.17 7.77 7.49 42.34 2.61
Québec Laurentides Joliette 14.05 14.84 7.7 8.31 51.73 2.61
Québec Laurentides Laurentides--Labelle 9.87 25.3 7.34 8.01 46.02 2.7
Québec Laurentides Marc-Aurèle-Fortin 11.14 24.3 9.52 8.18 43.49 2.61
Québec Laurentides Montcalm 10.24 21.98 10.35 7.2 46.82 2.65
Québec Laurentides Repentigny 10.59 15.16 10.99 6.73 53.07 2.71
Québec Laurentides Rivière – des – Milles 14.31 18.31 9.62 8.26 46.25 2.49
– Îles
Québec Laurentides Terrebonne--Blainville 10.27 15.32 10.04 7.57 53.18 2.85
Québec Montérégie Beauharnois-- 16.47 16.34 8.95 7.29 47.72 2.49
Salaberry
Québec Montérégie Brossard--La Prairie 13.96 32.4 9.61 7.12 33.32 2.83
Québec Montérégie Chambly--Borduas 12.13 16.2 10.59 8.17 49.66 2.48
Québec Montérégie Châteauguay--Saint- 12.65 22.46 10.44 7.4 43.79 2.5
Constant
Québec Montérégie Longueuil--Pierre- 11.38 21.56 10.98 7.74 44.72 2.87
Boucher
Québec Montérégie Saint-Hyacinthe-- 18.24 14.04 10.05 7.4 46.85 2.66
Bagot
Québec Montérégie Saint-Jean 13.18 17.83 8.03 8 49.06 3.15
Québec Montérégie Saint-Lambert 11.34 28.69 10.84 7.67 38 2.7
Québec Montérégie Vaudreuil-Soulanges 16.23 25.93 7.33 8.01 38.98 2.76
Québec Montérégie Verchères--Les 11.61 15.22 10.76 7.19 51.77 2.69
Patriotes
Québec Montreal Ahuntsic 6.09 38.63 7.49 6.86 37.6 2.57
Québec Montreal Alfred-Pellan 11.59 28.73 9.03 7.54 39.42 2.93
Québec Montreal Bourassa 8.97 47.84 6.35 6.98 26.18 2.92
Québec Montreal Hochelaga 6.11 21.31 13.77 8.36 45.83 3.87
Québec Montreal Honoré-Mercier 10.4 42.17 8.25 7.09 28.5 2.85
Québec Montreal Jeanne-Le Ber 6.43 32.49 11.82 8.34 36.02 4.14
Québec Montreal La Pointe-de-l'Île 7.3 21.83 9.74 6.92 50.17 3.27

Aaron Ginsberg All Politics Is Local

 Riding-by-Riding Projection January 14
Québec Montreal Lac-Saint-Louis 17.67 44.52 12.16 11.46 10.88 2.55
Québec Montreal LaSalle-- Émard 9.2 39.34 10.82 8 27.68 4.21
Québec Montreal Laurier--Sainte-Marie 1.55 21.5 14.68 11.23 46.15 4.14
Québec Montreal Laval 14.33 27.62 9.71 7.54 37.21 2.84
Québec Montreal Laval--Les-Îles 13.39 38.13 9.07 7.17 28.3 3.19
Québec Montreal Mount Royal 17.78 56.11 8 8.31 5.85 3.2
Québec Montreal Notre-Dame-de- 10.82 44.11 12.98 10.56 17.41 3.36
Grâce--Lachine
Québec Montreal Outremont 6.6 37.64 32.2 7.97 11.68 3.16
Québec Montreal Papineau 5.99 40.5 7.61 7.27 34.58 3.3
Québec Montreal Pierrefonds--Dollard 20.5 45.28 8.35 10.26 12.02 2.84
Québec Montreal Rosemont--La Petite- 3.26 18.82 13.41 9.11 51.26 3.39
Patrie
Québec Montreal Saint-Bruno--Saint- 11.17 22.2 10.43 7.86 44.63 2.97
Hubert
Québec Montreal Saint-Laurent-- 10.57 62.23 7.86 5.44 9.8 3.34
Cartierville
Québec Montreal Saint-Léonard--Saint- 9.36 58.48 8.62 6.67 12.91 3.2
Michel
Québec Montreal Westmount--Ville- 11.43 47.92 18.98 11.26 6.53 3.13
Marie
Québec Nord Abitibi--Baie-James-- 20.34 21.51 6.54 7.41 40.9 2.55
Nunavik--Eeyou
Québec Nord Abitibi-- 13.8 22.66 8.36 6.46 44.8 3.16
Témiscamingue
Québec Nord Chicoutimi--Le Fjord 24.72 20.96 6.07 6.7 38.2 2.59
Québec Nord Jonquière--Alma 42.36 13.67 4.63 5.27 30.64 2.66
Québec Nord Manicouagan 17.91 17.56 6.42 7.06 47.61 2.68
Québec Nord Rivière-du-Nord 10.69 13.94 10.54 7.34 53.67 3.06
Québec Nord Roberval--Lac-Saint- 35.53 11.93 4.16 6.56 38.52 2.55
Jean
Québec Nord Saint-Maurice-- 19.94 20.3 6.53 7.25 42.57 2.66
Champlain
Québec Nord Trois-Rivières 19.88 17.95 7.58 7.18 43.91 2.74
Québec Outaouais Argenteuil-- 14.86 20.71 9.11 7.78 44.12 2.67
Papineau--Mirabel
Québec Outaouais Gatineau 10.91 27.08 18.57 6.75 33.14 2.81
Québec Outaouais Hull--Aylmer 10.43 34.3 15.89 8.84 26.84 2.94
Québec Outaouais Pontiac 25.73 24.85 12.16 8.49 24.94 3.07
Québec Québec/Beauce Beauce 52.62 12.23 5.95 8.09 17.63 2.74
Québec Québec/Beauce Beauport--Limoilou 28.79 18.88 9.5 7 31.48 3.59
Québec Québec/Beauce Charlesbourg--Haute- 31.8 15.39 9.5 6.75 32.47 3.34
Saint-Charles
Québec Québec/Beauce Lévis--Bellechasse 38.79 14.55 7.94 7.14 26.24 4.58
Québec Québec/Beauce Lotbinière--Chutes- 42.66 12.43 9.67 6.87 24.73 2.89
de-la-Chaudière

Aaron Ginsberg All Politics Is Local

 Riding-by-Riding Projection January 14
Québec Québec/Beauce Louis-Hébert 22.3 21.87 8.99 6.77 35.81 3.5
Québec Québec/Beauce Louis-Saint-Laurent 39.6 14.02 7.86 6.88 27.57 3.3
Québec Québec/Beauce Mégantic--L'Érable 37.39 13.68 6.74 6.69 32.25 2.48
Québec Québec/Beauce Montmorency-- 21.15 16.95 6.41 6.99 45.19 2.55
Charlevoix--Haute-
Côte-Nord
Québec Québec/Beauce Portneuf--Jacques- 2.41 13.97 8.63 7.12 32.97 34.14
Cartier
Québec Québec/Beauce Québec 20.04 16.99 9.29 7.48 41.95 3.49
Québec Sud du Saint Gaspésie--Îles-de-la- 18.9 27.55 5.39 7.1 37.56 2.74
Laurent Madeleine
Québec Sud du Saint Haute-Gaspésie--La 15.23 31.77 4.58 7.15 36.86 3.66
Laurent Mitis--Matane--
Matapédia
Québec Sud du Saint Montmagny--L'Islet-- 25.82 20.3 5.02 6.94 38.31 2.86
Laurent Kamouraska--Rivière-
du-Loup
Québec Sud du Saint Rimouski-Neigette-- 13.57 20.74 8.74 6.24 44.41 5.55
Laurent Témiscouata--Les
Basques

Aaron Ginsberg All Politics Is Local

 Riding-by-Riding Projection January 14
Saskatchewan ALL Battlefords-- 56.85 9.73 20.17 8.84 0 4.15
Lloydminster
Saskatchewan ALL Blackstrap 49.13 23.36 17.76 9.78 0 -0.27
Saskatchewan ALL Cypress Hills-- 59.44 14.69 14.71 10.21 0 0.7
Grasslands
Saskatchewan ALL Desnethé-- 46.8 29.11 15.27 8.45 0 0.12
Missinippi--Churchill
River
Saskatchewan ALL Palliser 41.15 18.04 31.93 9.06 0 -0.43
Saskatchewan ALL Prince Albert 53.89 12.27 25.01 8.93 0 -0.36
Saskatchewan ALL Regina--Lumsden-- 44.75 19.53 26.16 9.3 0 0.01
Lake Centre
Saskatchewan ALL Regina--Qu'Appelle 45.37 15.19 30.28 9.47 0 -0.56
Saskatchewan ALL Saskatoon--Humboldt 47.13 14.25 25.88 9.95 0 2.55
Saskatchewan ALL Saskatoon-- 43.92 7.03 39.82 8.76 0 0.22
Rosetown--Biggar
Saskatchewan ALL Saskatoon-- 51.81 17.35 20.84 10.25 0 -0.5
Wanuskewin
Saskatchewan ALL Souris--Moose 62.11 10.59 13.63 9.93 0 3.49
Mountain
Saskatchewan ALL Wascana 30.47 48.19 12.91 8.9 0 -0.72
Saskatchewan ALL Yorkton--Melville 64.68 7.96 17.99 9.31 0 -0.19
Yukon ALL Yukon 24.67 45.09 14.97 14.23 0 0.79

Aaron Ginsberg All Politics Is Local