Riding-by-Riding Projection December 14

Province Region Riding CPC LPC NDP GPC BQ OTH

Alberta Calgary Calgary – Nosehill 63.62 19.32 6.77 11.58 0 -1.55
Alberta Calgary Calgary Centre 52.76 20.51 9.4 17.83 0 -0.75
Alberta Calgary Calgary Centre-North 53.27 17.8 12.21 17.3 0 -0.84
Alberta Calgary Calgary East 61.16 15.45 9.85 14.03 0 -0.75
Alberta Calgary Calgary Northeast 52.8 24.06 6.68 9.3 0 6.9
Alberta Calgary Calgary Southeast 67.16 15.03 5.75 13.45 0 -1.63
Alberta Calgary Calgary Southwest 68.89 13.62 5.92 12.36 0 -1.05
Alberta Calgary Calgary West 55.72 24.17 4.99 14.36 0 0.51
Alberta Edmonton Edmonton – St. Albert 57.29 20.4 12.56 11.2 0 -1.71
Alberta Edmonton Edmonton Centre 49 29.98 10.96 10.88 0 -1.07
Alberta Edmonton Edmonton East 45.84 22.19 23.3 9.72 0 -1.3
Alberta Edmonton Edmonton--Leduc 56.31 23.03 10.73 11.22 0 -1.53
Alberta Edmonton Edmonton--Mill 53.68 25.55 12.39 9.37 0 -1.24
Woods--Beaumont
Alberta Edmonton Edmonton--Sherwood 42.08 17.5 10.97 11.41 0 17.79
Park
Alberta Edmonton Edmonton--Spruce 62.84 17.52 10 11.1 0 -1.71
Grove
Alberta Edmonton Edmonton-- 40.39 16.27 33.66 10.46 0 -1.03
Strathcona
Alberta Rural Alberta Crowfoot 75.85 10.02 5.84 9.76 0 -1.71
Alberta Rural Alberta Fort McMurray-- 58.69 17.14 13.2 10.17 0 0.55
Athabasca
Alberta Rural Alberta Lethbridge 62.77 14.36 11.64 9.74 0 1.23
Alberta Rural Alberta Macleod 72.87 10.4 4.87 12.14 0 -0.53
Alberta Rural Alberta Medicine Hat 70.24 10.6 8.22 9.34 0 1.35
Alberta Rural Alberta Peace River 62.06 11.95 11.33 10.1 0 4.31
Alberta Rural Alberta Red Deer 70.43 10.58 8.55 11.73 0 -1.54
Alberta Rural Alberta Vegreville-- 72.19 9.51 7.48 11.9 0 -1.33
Wainwright
Alberta Rural Alberta Westlock--St. Paul 67.05 14.83 8.12 10.16 0 -0.41
Alberta Rural Alberta Wetaskiwin 72.45 10.18 6.82 11.51 0 -1.21
Alberta Rural Alberta Wild Rose 68.72 10.49 6.24 15.65 0 -1.35
Alberta Rural Alberta Yellowhead 67.52 9.22 10.07 12.3 0 0.63
British Columbia Interior British Columbia 27.78 11.05 47.16 14.62 0 -0.86
Southern Interior
British Columbia Interior Cariboo--Prince 49.81 12.05 25.66 11.18 0 1.05
George
British Columbia Interior Chilliwack--Fraser 55.5 11.29 19.74 12.74 0 0.48
Canyon
British Columbia Interior Kamloops-- 40.87 13.4 34.39 12.16 0 -1.08
Thompson--Cariboo
British Columbia Interior Kelowna--Lake 50.31 16.29 16.97 16.78 0 -0.61
Country

Aaron Ginsberg All Politics Is Local

 Riding-by-Riding Projection December 14
British Columbia Interior Kootenay--Columbia 54.43 7.68 24.83 13.94 0 -1.13
British Columbia Interior Okanagan-- 52.17 13.33 18.92 16.24 0 -0.9
Coquihalla
British Columbia Interior Okanagan--Shuswap 46.47 12 23.35 17.54 0 0.37
British Columbia Interior Prince George--Peace 59.22 8.02 19.15 14.17 0 -0.81
River
British Columbia Interior Skeena--Bulkley 32.42 6.68 48.24 9.49 0 2.91
Valley
British Columbia Lower-Mainland Abbotsford 60.28 12.92 15.44 11.2 0 -0.09
British Columbia Lower-Mainland Fleetwood--Port Kells 37.84 24.95 25.4 10.87 0 0.69
British Columbia Lower-Mainland Langley 54.48 13.12 18.41 13.48 0 0.26
British Columbia Lower-Mainland Newton--North Delta 28.4 32.11 29.26 10.25 0 -0.27
British Columbia Lower-Mainland Pitt Meadows--Maple 44.55 10.1 33.73 11.43 0 -0.06
Ridge--Mission
British Columbia Lower-Mainland South Surrey--White 49.37 22.7 15.39 13.04 0 -0.76
Rock--Cloverdale
British Columbia Lower-Mainland Surrey North 29.72 13.23 37.99 9.73 0 9.07
British Columbia Vancouver Burnaby--Douglas 30.22 21.81 37.92 10.52 0 -0.73
British Columbia Vancouver Burnaby--New 29.42 16.69 42.8 11.3 0 -0.46
Westminster
British Columbia Vancouver Delta--Richmond East 48.59 21.43 18.45 12.19 0 -0.91
British Columbia Vancouver New Westminster-- 32.72 13.45 43.12 10.5 0 -0.05
Coquitlam
British Columbia Vancouver North Vancouver 37.31 36.01 12.55 14.86 0 -0.98
British Columbia Vancouver Port Moody-- 49.13 14.69 23.48 11.73 0 0.73
Westwood--Port
Coquitlam
British Columbia Vancouver Richmond 42.13 32.84 14.05 11.08 0 -0.35
British Columbia Vancouver Vancouver Centre 25.98 29.04 26.02 18.93 0 -0.22
British Columbia Vancouver Vancouver East 11.41 17.04 56.48 14.67 0 0.15
British Columbia Vancouver Vancouver Kingsway 20.89 31.37 36.32 10.74 0 0.44
British Columbia Vancouver Vancouver Quadra 30.59 44.49 12.36 12.87 0 -0.56
British Columbia Vancouver Vancouver South 30.93 38.77 20.74 9.77 0 -0.46
British Columbia Vancouver West Vancouver-- 38.33 27.19 18.14 17.13 0 -1.04
Sunshine Coast--Sea
to Sky Country
British Columbia Vancouver Esquimalt--Juan de 28.23 31.53 27.26 13.27 0 -0.54
Island Fuca
British Columbia Vancouver Nanaimo--Alberni 41.5 10.12 33.21 15.11 0 -0.2
British Columbia Island
Vancouver Nanaimo--Cowichan 32.79 7.65 46.6 13.5 0 -0.79
British Columbia Island
Vancouver Saanich--Gulf Islands 37.79 31.16 14.52 16.77 0 -0.49
British Columbia Island
Vancouver Vancouver Island 40.23 5.93 41.67 12.74 0 -0.82
Island North
British Columbia Vancouver Victoria 23.26 19.25 42.26 15.56 0 -0.6
Manitoba Island
Rural Manitoba Brandon--Souris 58.15 10.49 16.13 14.73 0 0.25
Manitoba Rural Manitoba Churchill 36.18 30.52 23.5 6.41 0 3.14

Aaron Ginsberg All Politics Is Local

 Riding-by-Riding Projection December 14
Manitoba Rural Manitoba Dauphin--Swan 62.22 13.37 15.41 8.69 0 0.06
River--Marquette
Manitoba Rural Manitoba Portage--Lisgar 70.83 11.04 6.12 10.07 0 1.68
Manitoba Rural Manitoba Provencher 67.21 13.29 9.92 8.7 0 0.63
Manitoba Rural Manitoba Selkirk--Interlake 58.21 8.29 25.63 7.96 0 -0.35
Manitoba Winnipeg Charleswood--St. 53.19 25.57 13.04 8.8 0 -0.86
James--Assiniboia
Manitoba Winnipeg Elmwood--Transcona 41.95 6.93 42.51 8.38 0 -0.03
Manitoba Winnipeg Kildonan--St. Paul 50.94 16.08 25.62 7.32 0 -0.21
Manitoba Winnipeg Saint Boniface 43.7 35.07 13.61 7.89 0 -0.52
Manitoba Winnipeg Winnipeg Centre 22.44 18.02 45.84 12.63 0 0.81
Manitoba Winnipeg Winnipeg North 22.21 13.65 56.66 7.47 0 -0.25
Manitoba Winnipeg Winnipeg South 43.73 35.06 13.06 7.96 0 -0.06
Manitoba Winnipeg Winnipeg South 39.75 40.74 11.16 9.18 0 -1.08
Centre
New Brunswick ALL Acadie--Bathurst 18.63 21.89 55.24 5.45 0 -1.47
New Brunswick ALL Beauséjour 31.48 44.13 16.69 9.13 0 -1.69
New Brunswick ALL Fredricton 40.86 32.54 17.33 10.48 0 -1.47
New Brunswick ALL Fundy Royal 51.43 18.61 22.09 9.21 0 -1.59
New Brunswick ALL Madawaska-- 34.09 40.82 19.43 7.23 0 -1.82
Restigouche
New Brunswick ALL Miramichi 39.81 36.15 17.42 7 0 -0.64
New Brunswick ALL Moncton--Riverview-- 34.2 40.46 16.56 10.26 0 -1.74
Dieppe
New Brunswick ALL New Brunswick 55.4 21.12 16.84 7.93 0 -1.54
Southwest
New Brunswick ALL Saint John 43.22 34.49 15.43 7.79 0 -1.18
New Brunswick ALL Tobique--Mactaquac 53 27.02 13.5 7.98 0 -1.76
Newfoundland ALL Avalon 44.3 39.15 11.48 4.41 0 0.4
and Labrador
Newfoundland ALL Bonavista--Gander-- 31.33 56 7.58 4.23 0 0.61
and Labrador Grand Falls--Windsor
Newfoundland ALL Humber--St. Barbe-- 23.49 57.11 13.33 3.15 0 2.68
and Labrador Baie Verte
Newfoundland ALL Labrador 22.98 57.72 11.53 5.51 0 2.01
and Labrador
Newfoundland ALL Random--Burin--St. 31.12 44.18 19.48 4.51 0 0.46
and Labrador George's
Newfoundland ALL St. John’s East 29.32 15.37 49.23 4.1 0 1.72
and Labrador
Newfoundland ALL St. John’s South- 30.56 33.1 30.46 4.2 0 1.42
and Labrador Mount Pearl
Northwest ALL Western Arctic 30.12 19.53 39.67 9.65 0 0.78
Territories
Nova Scotia ALL Cape Breton--Canso 25.8 46.46 21.99 8.96 0 -3.46

Aaron Ginsberg All Politics Is Local

 Riding-by-Riding Projection December 14
Nova Scotia ALL Central Nova 47.23 6.41 24.78 23.75 0 -2.42
Nova Scotia ALL Cumberland-- 39.58 15.2 20.07 5.61 0 19.29
Colchester--
Musquodoboit Valley
Nova Scotia ALL Dartmouth--Cole 24.99 36.91 32.55 8.26 0 -2.95
Harbour
Nova Scotia ALL Halifax 21.67 26.47 44.22 10.53 0 -3.14
Nova Scotia ALL Halifax West 24.18 40.74 28.71 9.23 0 -3.1
Nova Scotia ALL Kings--Hants 28.44 41.22 21.25 8.44 0 -2.07
Nova Scotia ALL Sackville-- Eastern 23.71 13.98 57.59 7.61 0 -3.21
Shore
Nova Scotia ALL South Shore -- St. 39.11 22.56 31.85 8.13 0 -1.84
Margaret’s
Nova Scotia ALL Sydney--Victoria 21.94 46.25 26.57 8.1 0 -3.16
Nova Scotia ALL West Nova 41.04 34.18 18.66 7.69 0 -1.88
Nunavut ALL Nunavut 30.33 31.92 21.49 12.2 0 3.81
Ontario Eastern Ontario Carleton--Mississippi 56.08 21.16 9.69 13.35 0 -0.52
Mills
Ontario Eastern Ontario Glengarry--Prescott-- 47.06 33.75 9.68 9.95 0 -0.7
Russell
Ontario Eastern Ontario Haliburton--Kawartha 52.57 22 13.56 11.9 0 -0.29
Lakes--Brock
Ontario Eastern Ontario Kingston and the 31.03 38.73 16 14.37 0 -0.39
Islands
Ontario Eastern Ontario Lanark--Frontenac-- 55.42 20.15 11.83 12.16 0 0.19
Lennox and
Addington
Ontario Eastern Ontario Nepean--Carleton 55.62 22.98 9.08 12.81 0 -0.74
Ontario Eastern Ontario Northumberland-- 46.96 28.08 13.79 11.84 0 -0.93
Quinte West
Ontario Eastern Ontario Ottawa Centre 24.23 23.51 37.45 14.57 0 0
Ontario Eastern Ontario Ottawa South 36.17 43.49 8.69 11.09 0 0.31
Ontario Eastern Ontario Ottawa West--Nepean 45.22 32.38 11.13 10.76 0 0.26
Ontario Eastern Ontario Ottawa--Orléans 44.8 35.74 9.46 10.39 0 -0.64
Ontario Eastern Ontario Ottawa--Vanier 28.72 41.61 16.73 12.8 0 -0.12
Ontario Eastern Ontario Peterborough 43.75 29.53 15.84 11.19 0 -0.56
Ontario Eastern Ontario Prince Edward-- 50.19 25.73 12.5 11.64 0 -0.32
Hastings
Ontario Eastern Ontario Stormont--Dundas-- 56.33 19.65 11.37 9.4 0 2.99
South Glengarry
Ontario Golden Ajax – Pickering 37.51 42.45 8.72 11.07 0 0
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Ancaster--Dundas-- 44.41 26.78 16.9 12.24 0 -0.59
Horsehoe/905 Flamborough--
Westdale
Ontario Golden Bramalea--Gore-- 36.58 43.1 10.83 9.61 0 -0.37
Horsehoe/905 Malton

Aaron Ginsberg All Politics Is Local

 Riding-by-Riding Projection December 14
Ontario Golden Brampton West 40.41 39.2 10.73 10.22 0 -0.81
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Brampton-- 36.95 39.54 12.59 11.33 0 -0.66
Horsehoe/905 Springdale
Ontario Golden Brant 40.7 30.75 17.17 11.07 0 0.06
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Burlington 47.05 31.2 11.09 11.17 0 -0.75
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Dufferin--Caledon 51.87 20.86 8.53 18.85 0 -0.37
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Durham 49.52 26.28 10.35 13.57 0 0.03
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Haldimand--Norfolk 44.43 29.78 10.49 8.88 0 6.17
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Halton 46.84 35.27 6.95 11.31 0 -0.63
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Hamilton Centre 22.27 17.43 47.51 11.84 0 0.7
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Hamilton East-- 25.61 27.13 37.4 8.78 0 0.83
Horsehoe/905 Stoney Creek
Ontario Golden Hamilton Mountain 31.13 21.25 38.75 9.29 0 -0.68
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Markham--Unionville 32.2 50.37 8.5 8.58 0 0.09
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Mississauga East-- 32.87 47.48 9.67 9.29 0 0.44
Horsehoe/905 Cooksville
Ontario Golden Mississauga South 40.37 41.25 7.78 11.09 0 -0.74
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Mississauga-- 32.65 46.62 10.25 10.4 0 -0.17
Horsehoe/905 Brampton South
Ontario Golden Mississauga--Erindale 41.77 40.5 7.58 10.49 0 -0.59
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Mississauga-- 36.49 42.49 8.92 10.91 0 0.94
Horsehoe/905 Streetsville
Ontario Golden Newmarket--Aurora 45.44 34.24 7.22 11.75 0 1.1
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Niagara Falls 45.46 26.25 17.34 11.7 0 -0.99
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Oak Ridges-- 41.51 40.37 7.66 10.59 0 -0.38
Horsehoe/905 Markham
Ontario Golden Oakville 45.57 36.84 6.26 12.04 0 -0.97
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Oshawa 41.02 16.11 32.26 10.69 0 -0.32
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Pickering-- 33.18 47.48 9.17 10.37 0 -0.45
Horsehoe/905 Scarborough East

Aaron Ginsberg All Politics Is Local

 Riding-by-Riding Projection December 14
Ontario Golden Richmond Hill 34.67 46.31 8.12 11.24 0 -0.59
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden St. Catharines 43.66 28.43 17.28 10.59 0 -0.21
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Thornhill 44.54 41.04 5.19 9.22 0 -0.25
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Vaughan 32.19 49.83 7.37 10.83 0 -0.48
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Welland 32.17 27.51 30.06 9.56 0 0.45
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Whitby--Oshawa 48.52 27.8 12.18 11.63 0 -0.39
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden York--Simcoe 54.32 20.16 10.57 13.57 0 1.12
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Northern Ontario Algoma--Manitoulin-- 21.42 31.13 38.91 8.83 0 -0.55
Kapuskasing
Ontario Northern Ontario Kenora 37.78 29.47 24.45 8.99 0 -0.93
Ontario Northern Ontario Nickel Belt 20.53 28.91 40.98 8.88 0 0.45
Ontario Northern Ontario Nipissing-- 35.11 40.22 14.59 10.39 0 -0.56
Timiskaming
Ontario Northern Ontario Parry Sound-- 47.14 27.53 10.34 15.25 0 -0.52
Muskoka
Ontario Northern Ontario Renfrew--Nipissing-- 60.89 18.79 9.63 10.17 0 0.27
Pembroke
Ontario Northern Ontario Sault Ste. Marie 33.63 20.06 37.94 8.39 0 -0.28
Ontario Northern Ontario Sudbury 25.6 31.08 31.76 11.02 0 0.28
Ontario Northern Ontario Thunder Bay--Rainy 26.47 30.01 35.22 8.37 0 -0.32
River
Ontario Northern Ontario Thunder Bay-- 26.31 28.38 33.57 11.23 0 0.26
Superior North
Ontario Northern Ontario Timmins--James Bay 18.37 23.77 51 7.54 0 -0.93
Ontario Southwestern Barrie 49.46 26.47 10.08 14.3 0 -0.57
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Bruce--Grey--Owen 47.96 18.15 8.45 25.29 0 -0.11
Ontario Sound
Ontario Southwestern Cambridge 49.17 23.48 15.78 12.15 0 -0.84
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Chatham-Kent--Essex 47.1 26.96 15.93 10.37 0 -0.6
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Elgin--Middlesex-- 47.23 22.11 18.22 11.02 0 1.16
Ontario London
Ontario Southwestern Essex 39.9 30.66 21.35 8.68 0 -0.85
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Guelph 30.42 31.55 19.46 18.15 0 0.17
Ontario

Aaron Ginsberg All Politics Is Local

 Riding-by-Riding Projection December 14
Ontario Southwestern Huron--Bruce 42.59 33.17 13.27 9.44 0 1.28
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Kitchener Centre 35.73 35.37 16.6 12.28 0 -0.22
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Kitchener--Conestoga 46.74 26.84 13.31 13.73 0 -0.87
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Kitchener--Waterloo 34.7 36.47 13.91 14.68 0 -0.02
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Lambton--Kent-- 51.23 23.16 13.8 10.94 0 0.62
Ontario Middlesex
Ontario Southwestern Leeds--Grenville 54.36 18.8 14.01 12.88 0 -0.31
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern London North Centre 33.54 36.25 17.26 13.28 0 -0.59
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern London West 37.83 32.32 16.9 12.62 0 0.07
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern London--Fanshawe 30.64 25.39 34.03 10.2 0 -0.51
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Niagara West-- 50.63 23.86 13.34 10.78 0 1.13
Ontario Glanbrook
Ontario Southwestern Oxford 51.54 19.18 15.56 10.95 0 2.53
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Perth--Wellington 48.24 21.62 15.43 12.92 0 1.54
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Sarnia--Lambton 46.36 22.69 18.65 10.71 0 1.34
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Simcoe North 47.13 28.66 10.48 14.02 0 -0.54
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Simcoe--Grey 53.08 22.68 9.25 13.14 0 1.6
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Wellington--Halton 55.19 22.34 8.74 13.18 0 0.29
Ontario Hills
Ontario Southwestern Windsor West 22.97 18.15 49 9.66 0 -0.03
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Windsor--Tecumseh 25.29 20.23 44.89 10.12 0 -0.78
Ontario
Ontario Toronto Beaches--East York 18.43 37.83 31.08 12.86 0 -0.44
Ontario Toronto Davenport 12.24 43.99 30.29 12.81 0 0.42
Ontario Toronto Don Valley East 31.63 46.49 11.42 10.53 0 -0.33
Ontario Toronto Don Valley West 37.39 44.89 7.92 10.13 0 -0.58
Ontario Toronto Eglinton--Lawrence 39.26 40.69 8.33 11.88 0 -0.42
Ontario Toronto Etobicoke Centre 35.16 47.89 7.46 9.43 0 -0.19
Ontario Toronto Etobicoke North 29.78 48.04 12.48 9.11 0 0.34
Ontario Toronto Etobicoke--Lakeshore 36.9 41.69 10.42 11.23 0 -0.48

Aaron Ginsberg All Politics Is Local

 Riding-by-Riding Projection December 14
Ontario Toronto Parkdale--High Park 15.56 37.03 35.12 11.88 0 0.16
Ontario Toronto Scarborough Centre 29.93 47.5 13.73 9.52 0 -0.93
Ontario Toronto Scarborough 28.82 40.4 18.63 12.36 0 -0.46
Southwest
Ontario Toronto Scarborough-- 28.29 55.16 8.11 8.68 0 -0.49
Agincourt
Ontario Toronto Scarborough-- 30.25 48.01 12.85 9.35 0 -0.71
Guildwood
Ontario Toronto Scarborough--Rouge 22.27 56.31 11.15 7.4 0 2.61
River
Ontario Toronto St. Paul’s 27.18 47.62 13.07 12.44 0 -0.58
Ontario Toronto Toronto Centre 19.3 49.58 16.79 13.99 0 0.09
Ontario Toronto Toronto--Danforth 11.91 28.34 44.17 15.47 0 -0.14
Ontario Toronto Trinity – Spadina 13.37 33.51 40.53 11.96 0 0.38
Ontario Toronto Willowdale 31.84 48.18 8.63 10.37 0 0.73
Ontario Toronto York Centre 35.8 43.42 10.95 10.19 0 -0.62
Ontario Toronto York South--Weston 24.95 47.14 18.97 9.48 0 -0.8
Ontario Toronto York West 17.9 57.24 15.26 9.27 0 0.07
PEI ALL Cardigan 33.01 47.58 8.35 7.42 0 5.71
PEI ALL Charlottetown 33.76 43.85 13.02 8.33 0 0.61
PEI ALL Egmont 40.28 41.61 9.62 7.99 0 -0.09
PEI ALL Malpeque 38.95 40.77 9.99 10.19 0 -0.09

Aaron Ginsberg All Politics Is Local

 Riding-by-Riding Projection December 14
Québec Eastern Bas-Richelieu-- 17.27 16.36 5.84 7.76 52.98 -0.53
Townships Nicolet--Bécancour
Québec Eastern Brome--Missisquoi 16.57 28.22 7.08 8.59 38.41 0.8
Townships
Québec Eastern Compton--Stanstead 19.4 20.64 8.09 9.3 42.86 -0.61
Townships
Québec Eastern Drummond 20.91 17.33 11.23 8.18 42.63 -0.61
Townships
Québec Eastern Richmond-- 25.93 11.91 7 8.04 46.8 -0.01
Townships Arthabaska
Québec Eastern Shefford 18.27 22.79 8.54 8.66 42.02 -0.61
Townships
Québec Eastern Sherbrooke 14.79 17.79 10.03 6.47 50.5 0.09
Townships
Québec Laurentides Berthier--Maskinongé 21.96 18.09 7.67 8.37 44.13 -0.54
Québec Laurentides Joliette 17.15 12.76 7.6 9.19 53.52 -0.55
Québec Laurentides Laurentides--Labelle 12.98 23.22 7.24 8.89 47.81 -0.46
Québec Laurentides Marc-Aurèle-Fortin 14.24 22.21 9.42 9.06 45.28 -0.54
Québec Laurentides Montcalm 13.34 19.9 10.25 8.08 48.61 -0.51
Québec Laurentides Repentigny 13.62 13.37 10.98 7.99 54.38 -0.67
Québec Laurentides Rivière – des – Milles 17.41 16.22 9.52 9.14 48.04 -0.67
– Îles
Québec Laurentides Terrebonne--Blainville 13.37 13.24 9.94 8.45 54.97 -0.3
Québec Montérégie Beauharnois-- 19.89 14.17 8.88 8.21 49.51 -0.78
Salaberry
Québec Montérégie Brossard--La Prairie 17.06 30.31 9.51 8 35.11 -0.32
Québec Montérégie Chambly--Borduas 15.23 14.12 10.49 9.05 51.45 -0.67
Québec Montérégie Châteauguay--Saint- 15.75 20.37 10.34 8.28 45.58 -0.65
Constant
Québec Montérégie Longueuil--Pierre- 14.48 19.47 10.88 8.62 46.51 -0.29
Boucher
Québec Montérégie Saint-Hyacinthe-- 19.76 12.25 9.64 8.3 50.39 -0.67
Bagot
Québec Montérégie Saint-Jean 16.28 15.74 7.93 8.87 50.85 -0.01
Québec Montérégie Saint-Lambert 14.44 26.61 10.74 8.55 39.79 -0.45
Québec Montérégie Vaudreuil-Soulanges 19.33 23.85 7.23 8.88 40.77 -0.39
Québec Montérégie Verchères--Les 15.04 13.05 10.7 8.11 53.56 -0.59
Patriotes
Québec Montreal Ahuntsic 9.19 36.55 7.39 7.73 39.39 -0.58
Québec Montreal Alfred-Pellan 15.02 26.56 8.96 8.46 41.21 -0.34
Québec Montreal Bourassa 12.08 45.76 6.25 7.85 27.97 -0.24
Québec Montreal Hochelaga 9.21 19.23 13.67 9.23 47.62 0.71
Québec Montreal Honoré-Mercier 13.5 40.08 8.15 7.96 30.29 -0.3
Québec Montreal Jeanne-Le Ber 9.53 30.4 11.72 9.21 37.81 0.99
Québec Montreal La Pointe-de-l'Île 10.41 19.75 9.64 7.8 51.96 0.12

Aaron Ginsberg All Politics Is Local

 Riding-by-Riding Projection December 14
Québec Montreal Lac-Saint-Louis 20.78 42.44 12.06 12.34 12.67 -0.61
Québec Montreal LaSalle-- Émard 12.3 37.25 10.72 8.88 29.47 1.05
Québec Montreal Laurier--Sainte-Marie 4.65 19.41 14.58 12.1 47.94 0.98
Québec Montreal Laval 17.43 25.53 9.61 8.41 39 -0.32
Québec Montreal Laval--Les-Îles 16.49 36.04 8.97 8.04 30.09 0.04
Québec Montreal Mount Royal 20.88 54.03 7.9 9.18 7.63 0.05
Québec Montreal Notre-Dame-de- 13.92 42.03 12.88 11.43 19.2 0.2
Grâce--Lachine
Québec Montreal Outremont 10.23 36.33 28.31 9.17 15.73 -0.1
Québec Montreal Papineau 9.09 38.41 7.51 8.14 36.37 0.15
Québec Montreal Pierrefonds--Dollard 23.6 43.19 8.25 11.13 13.81 -0.32
Québec Montreal Rosemont--La Petite- 6.36 16.73 13.31 9.98 53.05 0.24
Patrie
Québec Montreal Saint-Bruno--Saint- 14.27 20.11 10.33 8.73 46.42 -0.19
Hubert
Québec Montreal Saint-Laurent-- 13.67 60.14 7.76 6.31 11.59 0.19
Cartierville
Québec Montreal Saint-Léonard--Saint- 12.46 56.4 8.52 7.55 14.7 0.04
Michel
Québec Montreal Westmount--Ville- 14.53 45.83 18.88 12.13 8.32 -0.02
Marie
Québec Nord Abitibi--Baie-James-- 23.44 19.43 6.44 8.29 42.69 -0.61
Nunavik--Eeyou
Québec Nord Abitibi-- 16.9 20.57 8.26 7.34 46.59 0
Témiscamingue
Québec Nord Chicoutimi--Le Fjord 27.82 18.87 5.97 7.58 39.99 -0.56
Québec Nord Jonquière--Alma 45.47 11.58 4.53 6.15 32.43 -0.49
Québec Nord Manicouagan 21.01 15.47 6.32 7.94 49.4 -0.47
Québec Nord Rivière-du-Nord 13.79 11.86 10.44 8.22 55.46 -0.09
Québec Nord Roberval--Lac-Saint- 35.82 9.61 4.46 7.76 42.61 -0.61
Jean
Québec Nord Saint-Maurice-- 23.37 18.13 6.46 8.17 44.36 -0.61
Champlain
Québec Nord Trois-Rivières 22.98 15.87 7.48 8.05 45.7 -0.41
Québec Outaouais Argenteuil-- 17.96 18.62 9.01 8.65 45.91 -0.49
Papineau--Mirabel
Québec Outaouais Gatineau 14.01 24.99 18.47 7.62 34.93 -0.35
Québec Outaouais Hull--Aylmer 13.53 32.21 15.79 9.72 28.63 -0.21
Québec Outaouais Pontiac 28.83 22.76 12.06 9.37 26.73 -0.08
Québec Québec/Beauce Beauce 55.72 10.14 5.85 8.96 19.42 -0.42
Québec Québec/Beauce Beauport--Limoilou 31.89 16.79 9.4 7.87 33.27 0.44
Québec Québec/Beauce Charlesbourg--Haute- 34.9 13.3 9.4 7.63 34.26 0.18
Saint-Charles
Québec Québec/Beauce Lévis--Bellechasse 41.89 12.46 7.84 8.01 28.03 1.43
Québec Québec/Beauce Lotbinière--Chutes- 45.76 10.35 9.57 7.74 26.52 -0.27
de-la-Chaudière

Aaron Ginsberg All Politics Is Local

 Riding-by-Riding Projection December 14
Québec Québec/Beauce Louis-Hébert 25.4 19.78 8.89 7.65 37.6 0.35
Québec Québec/Beauce Louis-Saint-Laurent 42.71 11.94 7.76 7.75 29.36 0.15
Québec Québec/Beauce Mégantic--L'Érable 40.49 11.6 6.64 7.57 34.04 -0.67
Québec Québec/Beauce Montmorency-- 24.25 14.86 6.31 7.87 46.98 -0.61
Charlevoix--Haute-
Côte-Nord
Québec Québec/Beauce Portneuf--Jacques- 5.51 11.89 8.53 8 34.76 30.99
Cartier
Québec Québec/Beauce Québec 23.14 14.9 9.19 8.36 43.74 0.34
Québec Sud du Saint Gaspésie--Îles-de-la- 22.01 25.47 5.29 7.97 39.35 -0.42
Laurent Madeleine
Québec Sud du Saint Haute-Gaspésie--La 18.33 29.68 4.48 8.03 38.65 0.51
Laurent Mitis--Matane--
Matapédia
Québec Sud du Saint Montmagny--L'Islet-- 28.92 18.21 4.92 7.82 40.1 -0.3
Laurent Kamouraska--Rivière-
du-Loup
Québec Sud du Saint Rimouski-Neigette-- 16.67 18.66 8.64 7.11 46.2 2.39
Laurent Témiscouata--Les
Basques

Aaron Ginsberg All Politics Is Local

 Riding-by-Riding Projection December 14
Saskatchewan ALL Battlefords-- 61.08 8.54 19.35 7.35 0 3.42
Lloydminster
Saskatchewan ALL Blackstrap 53.35 22.17 16.94 8.29 0 -1
Saskatchewan ALL Cypress Hills-- 63.66 13.5 13.89 8.72 0 -0.02
Grasslands
Saskatchewan ALL Desnethé-- 50.18 29.14 14.18 6.85 0 -0.6
Missinippi--Churchill
River
Saskatchewan ALL Palliser 45.38 16.85 31.11 7.57 0 -1.15
Saskatchewan ALL Prince Albert 58.11 11.08 24.2 7.44 0 -1.09
Saskatchewan ALL Regina--Lumsden-- 48.97 18.33 25.34 7.82 0 -0.72
Lake Centre
Saskatchewan ALL Regina--Qu'Appelle 49.6 13.99 29.46 7.98 0 -1.29
Saskatchewan ALL Saskatoon--Humboldt 51.35 13.05 25.06 8.46 0 1.82
Saskatchewan ALL Saskatoon-- 48.14 5.84 39 7.27 0 -0.5
Rosetown--Biggar
Saskatchewan ALL Saskatoon-- 56.04 16.16 20.02 8.76 0 -1.23
Wanuskewin
Saskatchewan ALL Souris--Moose 66.33 9.4 12.81 8.44 0 2.76
Mountain
Saskatchewan ALL Wascana 34.69 46.99 12.09 7.41 0 -1.44
Saskatchewan ALL Yorkton--Melville 68.9 6.76 17.17 7.83 0 -0.92
Yukon ALL Yukon 28.75 42.87 13.58 14.65 0 -0.11

Aaron Ginsberg All Politics Is Local