ILO report for Southeast Asia and the Pacific

The South-East Asia and the Pacific region includes a number of economies
that are highly dependent upon foreign trade and investment flows.
Accordingly, among the Asian regions, it has been the hardest hit by the
crisis in terms of reduced economic growth. In the region as a whole,
economic growth for 2009 is expected to be 0.5 per cent, down from 4.4 per
cent in 2008 and from average annual growth of more than 6 per cent prior
to the onset of the crisis. The countries that have experienced the largest
drop in output in 2009 include Cambodia (growth fell to -2.7 per cent versus
6.7 per cent in 2008 and versus more than 10 per cent in the years leading
up to the crisis), Malaysia (-3.6 per cent growth in 2009), Thailand (-3.5 per
cent growth in 2009), Singapore (-3.3 per cent) and Fiji (-2.5 per cent).

Growth in Indonesia, the region’s largest country in terms of both population

and economic size, has held up well throughout the crisis... This, in turn, has
benefited the Indonesian labour market as well as the economic and labour
market figures for the region as a whole.

The regional unemployment rate in South-East Asia and the Pacific is

estimated to have risen to 5.6 per cent in 2009, up 0.2 percentage points
versus 2007. The rate for men rose from 5.2 per cent to 5.5 per cent while
for women, it remained nearly unchanged. Young people remain far more
likely than adults to be unemployed, with the region’s youth unemployment
rate reaching 15.3 per cent in 2009, versus a rate of only 3.4 per cent for
adults...

With slightly less than two-thirds of the working-age population in

employment, South-East Asia and the Pacific has the third highest
employment-to-population ratio among the regions of the world, lower than
only East Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. The regional employment-to-
population ratio has not changed a great deal during the crisis, as
employment grew by 1.7 per cent in 2009. There has been a much more
prominent effect on labour productivity in the region than on employment
generation, with output per worker falling by 1.8 per cent in 2009.
There is a substantial gender gap in labour force participation in South-East
Asia and the Pacific, with 82 per cent of men of working age (15 years and
older) active in the labour market versus approximately 57 per cent of
women...
Both the proportion and the number of workers in vulnerable employment in
South-East Asia and the Pacific have risen since 2008, with... a projected
increase of almost 5 million. This trend is to be expected, as many workers
who have lost their job in export-oriented manufacturing cannot afford to
join the ranks of the unemployed and instead will take up employment in the
informal sector, perhaps working in agricultural activities or in informal
services, such as street vending...

Because of an absence of recent country-level poverty data, it is not clear

whether the crisis has led to an increase in the incidence of the working
poor… Yet it is clear that while much progress has been made in terms of
economic development and while the region has recognized tremendous
growth, in no small part because of rapid export growth, much remains to be
done to eliminate decent work deficits and promote sustainable long-term
development.
 The forecast for the region’s unemployment rate in 2010 is that it will
remain around its current rate of 5.6 per cent, with a confidence interval of
5.2-5.9 per cent. Economic growth in the region is projected to rebound to 4
per cent in 2010.

Two things to note about the ILO report:

• "Vulnerable employment" is defined as "self-employment or unpaid family work"
by the report.
• The labour participation rate is somewhat different for Singapore residents.
A Ministry of Manpower press release issued on November 30 said:

As at June 2009, there were 1.99 million residents in the labour force
comprising 1.13 million (57%) males and 0.86 million (43%) females.

Now look at these tables from the ILO Global Employment Trends report. The figures for
2009 are preliminary estimates.
Unemployment rate in by region (%)
2007 2008 2009
World 5.7 5.8 6.6
Developed 5.7 6.0 8.4
economies
and European
Union
Central and 8.3 8.3 10.3
Southeastern
Europe (non-
EU) and CIS
East Asia 3.8 4.3 4.4
Southeast 5.4 5.3 5.6
Asia and the
Pacific
South Asia 5.0 4.8 5.1
Latin America 7.0 7.0 8.2
and the
Caribbean
Middle East 9.3 9.2 9.4
North Africa 10.1 10.0 10.5
Sub-Saharan 8.0 8.0 8.2
Africa
Employment-to-population rate (%)
2007 2008 2009
World 61.0 60.9 60.4
Developed 57.3 57.3 55.5
economies
and European
Union
Central and 54.4 54.5 53.2
Southeastern
Europe (non-
EU) and CIS
East Asia 70.5 69.9 69.8
Southeast 65.6 65.7 65.6
Asia and the
Pacific
South Asia 56.0 56.0 55.8
Latin America 60.6 60.9 60.0
and the
Caribbean
Middle East 46.2 46.4 46.7
North Africa 46.1 46.3 46.4
Sub-Saharan 65.7 65.8 65.8
Africa
Annual employment growth rate (%)
2007 2008 2009
World 1.9 1.4 0.7
Developed 1.4 0.6 -2.5
economies
and European
Union
Central and 2.1 0.7 -2.2
Southeastern
Europe (non-
EU) and CIS
East Asia 0.9 0.3 0.9
Southeast 2.5 2.0 1.7
Asia and the
Pacific
South Asia 2.4 2.4 1.8
Latin America 2.1 2.2 0.2
and the
Caribbean
Middle East 2.2 3.0 3.7
North Africa 2.7 2.6 2.4
Sub-Saharan 3.0 2.9 2.8
Africa
Output per worker, level and annual growth (%)
Output 2007 2008 2009
per
worker
World 21,708 3.0 1.8 -2.5
Developed 71,425 1.0 0.2 -1.3
economies
and
European
Union
Central and 25,035 5.3 5.0 -4.7
Southeastern
Europe (non-
EU) and CIS
East Asia 11,499 7.6 3.6 4.0
Southeast 9,208 3.8 2.1 -1.8
Asia and the
Pacific
South Asia 6,661 6.1 4.4 2.6
Latin 23,002 3.3 1.9 -3.5
America and
the
Caribbean
Middle East 35,161 2.9 3.7 -2.5
North Africa 16,081 2.9 3.2 0.6
Sub-Saharan 5,166 3.4 2.0 -1.7
Africa