Professional Documents
Culture Documents
April 2015
Table of Contents
HIGH RENEWABLE
ENERGY PENETRATION
SCENARIO: VISION AND
CONSENSUS
02
HIGH RENEWABLE
ENERGY PENETRATION
SCENARIO: PATHWAY
04
2050
HIGH RENEWABLE
ENERGY PENETRATION
SCENARIO: ACTION PLAN
18
01
Do not ever think about that we can escape, our every each step determine the
final outcome, our foot steps are moving towards the end of own chosen target.
Milan Kundera
Regional
optimized
deployment
model system
Macroeconomic
impact
assessment
model system
policy
evaluation
model
system
Technical and
economic
evaluation
system
02
MODEL
OUTPUT
INFORMATION OUTPUT
PLATFORM
Development plan of
renewable energy, allocation
of renewable energy
development targets
Submit to energy
authority the research
findings and policy
recommendations
Information disclosure
and report release to
public
Industry forecasts
reports and other paid
information services
Economic indicators
of renewable energy
technology, roadmap for
equipment manufacturing
industry and technology
R&D, industry development
forecast
Publications
03
50
Units: 100 million tce (calorific value calculation)
45
40
35
30
Solar power
25
20
Wind power
Hydropower
15
Nuclear power
Natural gas
Petroleum
Coal
0
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
04
05
3000.00
Agricultural
Transportation
2500.00
Residential
Commercial
Metal
2000.00
By 2050, the national total power generation will be 15.2 trillion kWh, 86% of
which will be renewable power and 91% non-fossil energy, while coal power
drops to below 7%.
Manufacturing
Chemical
1500.00
Coke
Electric Power
1000.00
500.00
0.00
Ocean energy
Geothermal power
Wood pellets power
Straw and stalks power
Biogas power
Municipal Solid Waste power
Solar power
Wind power
Hydropower
Nuclear power
Oil power
Natural gas power
Coal power
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Figure 2 China's Coal Consumption by Sector in High Penetration Scenario (million tce)
06
07
Various areas of the country will have the ability of developing wind
power and solar power on a large scale, laying equal emphasis on
centralized and distributed development.
172
247
141
469
183
395
36
100
86
67
38
46
6
7
25
2500000
2050
2000000
2.056 billion kW, by 2040
1500000
1000000
51
139
307 million kW, by 2020
500000
42
139
33
12
20
11
20
13
20
15
20
17
20
19
20
21
20
23
20
25
20
27
20
29
20
31
20
33
20
35
20
37
20
39
20
41
20
43
20
45
20
47
20
49
Wind power
Solar power
35
117
86
19
54
8
99
165
65
Figure 4-1 Development Phase Diagram of Wind and Solar Power
Generation in High Penetration Scenario
92
167
51
96
102
46
70
96
85
70
83
37
40
54
88
12
08
51
79
59
172
3000000
31
31
10
56
0
3
139 8
125
09
By 2050, Chinas end-use energy consumption will reach 3.2 billion tons
of coal equivalent, of which electricity will account for 60%, 36 percentage
points higher than that of 2010. Electricity will become the main form of
energy for peoples production and living.
16.000
Coal
14.000
Electric power
12.000
Solar heating
Petroleum
10.000
8.000
6.000
Geothermal heating
4.000
Natural gas
397
283
Biomass heating
2.000
0.000
Industry
Building
Transportation
220
715
250
290
40
315
79
214
56
365
515
256
467
209
140
203
Geothermal heating 3%
Others (residue heat) 3%
Solar heating 6%
Coal 7%
Biomass heating 3%
354
352
197
188
155
216
98
Petroleum 11%
303
46
160
192
267
634
Natural gas 5%
46
Electric power 60%
11
The contribution of variable power will rise from 30% to 60% in high penetration
scenario as compared with in reference scenario, making it more challenging to
ensure the real-time balance between electricity supply and demand. Variability
and uncertainty associated with high-penetration wind power and solar power will
be managed through increasing power trading in market, adding flexible generation
capacity, improving the flexibility of coal power, using energy storage technology and
demand response mechanism, as well as expanding transmission infrastructure.
2,500,000
2,000,000
0.800
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
T001
T003
T005
T007
T009
T011
T013
T015
T017
T019
T021
T023
12
0.700
0.746
0.701
0.689
0.683
0.672
0.666
0.674
2011
0.180
0.000
0.259
0.021
0.022
0.229
2015
0.182
0.001
0.265
0.021
0.027
0.211
2020
0.183
0.001
0.269
0.020
0.029
0.193
2025
0.186
0.001
0.260
0.019
0.031
0.189
2030
0.190
0.001
0.235
0.018
0.035
0.188
2035
0.194
0.001
0.220
0.017
0.039
0.192
2040
0.199
0.002
0.206
0.017
0.043
0.194
0.678
0.685
0.600
RMB/kWh
Nuclear power
Coal power
Hydropower
Natural gas power
Wind power
Wood pellets power
Solar power
Geothermal power
Biogas power
Straw and stalks power
Municipal solid waste power
Ocean energy
Oil power
Pumped hydro storage
0.500
0.400
0.300
0.200
0.100
0.000
Transmission cost
Start-up cost
Fuel cost
Variable cost O&M
Fixed cost O&M
Capacity cost
2045
0.205
0.002
0.192
0.018
0.049
0.189
2050
0.211
0.002
0.185
0.018
0.053
0.194
13
The high renewable energy penetration scenario will create 12 million jobs in
2050 in the renewable energy and related industries, which will promote the
transmission of Chinas employed population from traditional manufacturing to
high value add industries.
Emerging industries like wind power, solar power, and electric vehicle
will become a new economic growth point. In 2050, the added value
of renewable energy industries will grow to RMB17 trillion, making a
contribution of 6.2% to the GDP of that year. The added value of electric
vehicle industry will grow to close to RMB 8 trillion, accounting for 2.9% of
the GDP.
600
7.0%
6.2%
6.0%
500
5.0%
400
4.0%
300
481
377
250
2.9%
3.0%
2.5%
1.6%
2.0%
1.0%
2015
2050
0.9%
200
125
65
100
81
15
36
13
0
Solar energy
0.0%
2010
46
2020
2030
Wind power
Hydropower
Biomass energy
Others
2050
14
15
10
Note: China's data after 2010 is scenario analysis data and the
data of other countries is trend prediction data from IEA ETP 2014
100.0
90.0
80.0
70.0
60.0
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
50.0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
40.0
30.0
3000
20.0
2500
10.0
2000
0.0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
1500
1000
China
USA
EU
Proportion of China's
CO2 in world's total
Figure 10-1 China's CO2 Emission in the Global Contrast in High Penetration Scenario
16
500
0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
GOVERNMENT
RENEWABLE
ENERGY
INDUSTRY
POWER
SECTOR
IV. JOINT
ACTIONS OF
THE WHOLE
SOCIETY
18
2020
2030
2050
Fully popularize the utilization of lowtemperature solar heat and meet the
heat demand of all buildings and some
industrial users.
19
2010
2020
2030
50
2040
2050
70%
60%
40
35
50%
30
40%
25
20
30%
25
20%
15
10
10%
5
20
0
Solar and geothermal heating
Wind power
Nuclear power
Petroleum
Solar power
Biomass power
Hydropower
Natural gas
Coal
21
CH
UN
IE
RSI
NORT
TY
PARTNERS
NA
ELE
CTRIC
POW
ER
TECHNICAL SUPPORT