METHODOLOGY

Mainstreet Research surveyed a random sample of 5,546 Canadians

by Smart IVR on October 14-15, 2015. A mixture of landlines and cell
phones were surveyed. Results were weighed by language, age
and gender based on the 2011 Canadian Census.This poll has a
margin of error of +/- 1.46 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

REGIONAL MARGINS OF ERROR

ATLANTIC
+/- 4.73%, 19 times out of 20
QUBEC
+/- 3.09%, 19 times out of 20
ONTARIO
+/- 3.03%, 19 times out of 20
MANITOBA
+/- 3.61%, 19 times out of 20
SASKATCHEWAN
+/- 3.66%, 19 times out of 20
ALBERTA
+/- 3.46%, 19 times out of 20
BRITISH COLUMBIA
+/- 3.44%, 19 times out of 20

ATTRIBUTION
Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright.
The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished
with full and proper credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.

A3

A VERY LONG ELECTION.

When this election campaign began, Justin Trudeau was languishing in third, looking lost and out
of his depth. The bloom was o the rose. It appeared as if a year of Conservative ads, painting the
Liberal leader as just not ready, were indeed correct. Meanwhile, Tom Mulcair and the NDP were
enjoying a surge of support, with close to 70% of the electorate having an appetite for a change
in government. Our polling showed that while support for the NDP was not particularly strong,
they had an opportunity to solidify and expand it.
As I watched the rst debate, and the others after it, it occurred to me that as a child of the 1970s
and a boxing fan, Justin Trudeau surely was playing rope-a-dope. This strategylooking weak and
letting your opponents punch themselves out, while absorbing body blows and protecting the
headworked as it did in 1974. The Justin Trudeau of August 6th onward was a whole dierent
man; much more condent and poised. As he entered the nal rounds of this ght, his true
strength was revealed. It turns out he was ready all along.
Our numbers throughout the campaign showed three factors that ultimately decided the
outcome. Firstly, 70% of voters wanted a change in government in Ottawa. Secondly and thirdly,
only 30-45% of Liberal supporters indicated they could change their minds before election day,
while over 50% of NDP supporters said they could change theirs.
The deadlock in the national numbers throughout August and September kept those supporters
in their camps. The deadlock broke in early October with the rise of the Niqab debate in Quebec.
As the NDP dropped, national trends revealed a growing gap between the Liberals and the NDP.
This triggered a mass migration of votes from the NDP to the Liberals, as it became clear to the
70% who wanted change that the Liberals had the better chance of defeating the Conservatives.
The NDP strategy to outank the Liberals on the centre right might have workedoutside of that
national context. Positioning Tom Mulcair close to Stephen Harper on myriad economic issues, like
balanced budgets and the F-35 procurement, was a fatal blow to the NDP. This amounted to
unsuccessfully selling the same as change. This move to the right also alienated the NDP base
across Canada, where we found many provincial NDP voters not supporting Tom Mulcairs federal
party.
We saw a similar story last year, in Ontario. It doesnt appear the federal NDP learned any lessons
from Andrea Horwaths defeat.
Stephen Harper called the longest election in modern history hoping that he could massively
outspend his opponents, that Trudeau would trip up, or maybe something else. Whatever the plan
was, it hasnt worked out.
Though the Conservatives are positioned to make gains in Quebec, they face massive losses in
Ontario. New riding boundaries in Saskatchewan will cost them seats, as will newfound Liberal
support in British Columbia and Manitoba.
On Monday night, the long campaign closes, and itll be a rollercoaster ride right to the end. Would
we want it any other way?
- QM

A4

LIBERALS LEAD TORIES IN HOME STRETCH

October 17, 2015 (Toronto, ON) With less than 72 hours remaining before the polls open on election day,
Justins Trudeaus Liberal Party is rmly in the lead, sitting ve points above Stephen Harpers
Conservatives with Tom Mulcairs NDP far behind. The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of
1.46%, 19 times of out 20.
The Conservatives continue to enjoy the most dedicated supportersfully 89% of Conservative supporters
describe their support as strong, while just 9% of saying they might change their minds. The Liberals now
have the strong support of 77% of their voters, compared to just 15% who might switch. The NDP has
similar but weaker numbers, with 72% strong support and 23% potentially changing their minds.
The Liberals have continued to surge in this nal week of the campaign and now hold a four percent
leader over the Conservatives among all voters, and ve percent among decided and leaning voters, said
Quito Maggi, president of Mainstreet Research. With 37.8% support, the Liberals may now be on the cusp
of a majority. The Conservatives, with 32.6% support will surely be in opposition and the NDP at 20.8% will
return to third place in the House of Commons, with a reduced but still substantial caucus.
The Liberals have a dominant lead in Atlantic Canada; only in New Brunswick is the race remotely close,
though the Liberals are still comfortably ahead of the Conservatives. We are not expecting many
non-Liberal MPs to make it out of Atlantic Canada. We expect most, if not all, of Nova Scotia,
Newfoundland & Labrador and Prince Edward Island to return Liberal MPs to Ottawa, continued Maggi.
Liberals now lead in Quebec, 32% to 25% for the NDP, with the Conservatives and Bloc at 22% and 17%
respectively. This will likely mean signicant gains for the Liberals, as well as pick-ups for the
Conservatives and the Bloc, both of whom were all but wiped in 2011. The most interesting races to watch
on election night, and likely those that will determine the minority/majority government, are in Quebec
outside of Montreal and Quebec City. In the rest of Quebec, it is a four-way tie between the Liberals,
Conservatives, NDP and the Bloc.
In Ontario, the Liberals have opened an eleven point lead over the Conservatives, 44% to 33%, with the
NDP at just 19%. They lead in every region of Ontario, with the exception of South Central Ontario and the
Greater Toronto Area, where the parties are neck and neck. This shift in Ontario, compared to previous
regional polls, is most pronounced in Southwestern and Eastern Ontario, where Conservatives once
enjoyed very signicant leads.
Manitoba will be very interesting to watch, as the Liberals are just one point back of the Conservatives,
37% to 36% and lead substantially in Winnipegbut their strength outside the city may translate into
additional pickups, Maggi added.
Saskatchewan is continuing to buck national trends, with the Conservatives (44.8%) leading over the NDP
(29.5%), and the Liberals (20.1%) in third. New riding boundaries should spell trouble for the Conservatives
on election night. This is one bright spot for the NDP, which should see gains in the province.

A5

Alberta is another province where many interesting races are developing. The Liberals are now at a
substantial 26% across the province, running second in Calgary with a three-way tie in Edmonton. Look for
Liberals to make small signicant gain in Alberta and for some very close races in Edmonton.
In British Columbia, where the NDP led substantially for the vast majority of the campaign, the Liberals
have now surged ahead, with 33% to 32% for the Conservatives and 24% for the NDP. The Liberals are now
ahead substantially in Greater Vancouver, the NDP continue to lead on the Island and the Conservatives
lead in the rest of BC. BC will have the second most three-way races (after Quebec), expect lots of late
night drama as these results come in.
When you look at those whove indicated theyve already voted, however, we see a dierent picture.
Among those who voted early, 34.2% said they voted for the Conservatives, 33.7% for the Liberals, 19.5%
for the NDP, 4.5% for the Green Party and 2.4% for the Bloc, while 5.7% of those who voted early didnt say.
This is a pretty clear indication of the resilient Conservative vote, which could produce some surprises.
With dozens of close four-way races in Quebec and three-way races in BC, the next government could
largely be determined by the success of each partys ground game, concluded Maggi.
ABOUT MAINSTREET RESEARCH
Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of
government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion,
having predicted an NDP majority government in Alberta (2015), a Liberal majority government in British
Columbia, and a Liberal majority government in Ontario. Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate
pollster of last Octobers Toronto mayoral election.
-30Available for interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, President, quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
For more information: David Valentin, 613-698-5524, david@mainstreetresearch.ca

A6

LEANING & DECIDED

5%

4%

38%

21%

33%

CONSERVATIVE
33% -3%
NDP
21% +1%
LIBERAL
38% +3%
BLOC QUBECOIS 4%
GREEN PARTY
5%
-

CPC NDP LPC BQ GPC

CONSERVATIVE
NDP
LIBERAL
BLOC QUBECOIS
GREEN PARTY

BC
32%
24%
33%
x
11%

AB
57%
13%
26%
x
4%

SK
45%
29%
21%
x
5%

MB
37%
19%
36%
x
8%

ON
33%
19%
44%
x
4%

QC
22%
25%
32%
17%
4%

Atlantic
19%
21%
56%
x
3%

A7

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION - INCLUDING UNDECIDED VOTERS

The Question Was:

If the Federal Election were today,
which party would you support?

CONSERVATIVE (CPC)
NDP
LIBERAL (LPC)
BLOC QUBECOIS (BQ)
GREEN PARTY (GPC)
UNDECIDED (UD)

Party and Leader Name were given

ie. The Conservative Party led by
Stephen Harper

18-34
28%
22%
32%
3%
6%
9%
605

CONSERVATIVE
NDP
LIBERAL
BLOC QUBECOIS
GREEN PARTY
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE

CONSERVATIVE
NDP
LIBERAL
BLOC QUBECOIS
GREEN PARTY
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE

BC
30%
22%
31%
x
9%
9%
812

AB
53%
12%
24%
x
3%
9%
803

35-49
31%
18%
35%
3%
4%
10%
1319
SK
39%
25%
18%
x
3%
16%
715

50-64
29%
18%
35%
4%
3%
11%
1724
MB
33%
17%
33%
x
6%
10%
735

30%
19%
34%
4%
4%
10%

-3%
+1%
+3%
+1%
-1%
-

65+ Male Female

32% 31%
28%
15% 18%
19%
35% 34%
33%
4%
3%
4%
3%
5%
4%
11%
9%
12%
1898 2553 2993
ON
30%
17%
40%
x
4%
9%
1044

QC Atlantic
20% 16%
23%
17%
29% 48%
16%
x
3%
3%
10%
16%
1007 430

A8

CPC NDP LPC BQ GPC UD

10%

4%

4%

34%

19%

30%

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION - INCLUDING UNDECIDED VOTERS

A9

REGIONAL BREAKDOWNS - INCLUDING UNDECIDED

British Columbia

Alberta

Saskatchewan

CPC NDP LPC BQ GPC UD

Manitoba

A10

REGIONAL BREAKDOWNS - INCLUDING UNDECIDED

Ontario

Qubec

CPC NDP LPC BQ GPC UD

Atlantic

A11

DECIDED VOTERS ONLY (NOT INCLUDING LEANING)

5%

33% -4%
21% +1%
38% +3%
4%
5%
-

4%

38%

21%

33%

CONSERVATIVE
NDP
LIBERAL
BLOC QUBECOIS
GREEN PARTY

CPC NDP LPC BQ GPC

CONSERVATIVE
NDP
LIBERAL
BLOC QUBECOIS
GREEN PARTY

BC
32%
24%
33%
x
10%

AB
58%
13%
26%
x
3%

SK
46%
29%
21%
x
4%

MB
37%
19%
37%
x
7%

ON
33%
19%
44%
x
4%

QC Atlantic
22%
19%
25%
20%
32%
57%
17%
x
3%
4%

A12

WHICH PARTY ARE YOU LEANING TOWARDS? (UNDECIDED ONLY)

9%

10%

16%
61%
1%
4%

CPC NDP LPC BQ GPC UD

A13

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you wil
change you mind before the next election?

2%

9%

CONSERVATIVE
STRONG
MIGHT CHANGE MIND
DONT KNOW

89%
9%
2%

NDP
STRONG
MIGHT CHANGE MIND
DONT KNOW

72%
23%
5%

LIBERAL
STRONG
MIGHT CHANGE MIND
DONT KNOW

77%
15%
7%

89%

5%

23%

72%

7%

15%

77%

A14

CPC NDP LPC BQ GPC UD

18%

8%

4%

25%

33%

12%

And who would be your second choice? (MIGHT SWITCH/DONT KNOW ONLY)

A15

And who would be your second choice? (MIGHT SWITCH/DONT KNOW ONLY)

CONSERVATIVES
NDP
LIBERAL
BQ
GREEN
UNDECIDED

23%
34%
3%
8%
32%

NDP SUPPORTERS
CONSERVATIVE
LIBERAL
BQ
GREEN
UNDECIDED

11%
53%
8%
10%
18%

LIBERALS
CONSERVATIVE 16%
NDP 60%
BQ 2%
GREEN 8%
UNDECIDED 14%

A16

And who would be your second choice? (MIGHT SWITCH/DONT KNOW ONLY)

BLOQUISTES
CONSERVATIVE
NDP
LIBERAL
GREEN
UNDECIDED

16%
60%
2%
8%
14%

GREENS
CONSERVATIVE
NDP
LIBERAL
BQ
UNDECIDED

24%
21%
42%
2%
11%

A17

SCRIPT
How likely are you to vote in the upcoming Federal Election?
Voted in the Advance Poll or by Special Ballot
Absolutely certain to vote
Likely to vote
Might vote
Unlikely to vote
And if the Federal Election were today, which party would you support?
Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper
NDP led by Tom Mulcair
Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau
Bloc Qubcois led by Gilles Duceppe
Green Party led by Elizabeth May
Undecided
And which party are you leaning towards voting for? [Undecided Only]
Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper
NDP led by Tom Mulcair
Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau
Bloc Qubcois led by Gilles Duceppe
Green Party led by Elizabeth May
Undecided
Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will change your mind
before the next election? [Selected a Party Q2]
Strong supporter
Might change your mind
Dont know
And who would be your second choice? [Might Change/Dont Know Only]

Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all
three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator

public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority
Liberal government in British Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario.
Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of Octobers Toronto mayoral
election.

CONNECT WITH US:

WEBSITE
mainstreetresearch.ca

TWITTER
@MainStResearch

FACEBOOK
fb.com/mainstresearch

2015 Mainstreet Research. All rights reserved