THE HALIFAX/IPSOS

GLOBAL SNAPSHOT
RESULTS AND ANALYSIS OF A GLOBAL @DVISORY WAVE SURVEY
CONDUCTED OCTOBER 2015

John K. Glenn, Policy Director, U.S. Global Leadership Coalition

Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs
Peter Van Praagh, President of Halifax International Security Forum

CHALLENGING THE CONSENSUS

As global leaders converge on Halifax, Nova Scotia for the 7th Halifax International Security Forum,
it is worth remembering that security and foreign policy, like all public policy, is about people. The
Halifax/IPSOS Global Snapshot presents a view of what the global public thinks about challenges
facing the world today and challenges widely held assumptions in the political debate.
The assumptions examined herethat people are war weary and want to pull back; economic crisis
leads to isolationism; Canada and Americas image in the world need restoring; and the world just
cant get along anymoreare fundamental to framing the public and private conversations taking
place this weekend.
Every year since 2011, Halifax International Security Forum and IPSOS have cooperated to produce
The Halifax/IPSOS Global Snapshot that gauges concerns and dangers as people around the world
see them. Conducted over the past 5 years
80%
in 24 countries around the world, the annual survey provides a keen and comprehen70%
sive understanding of how the public sees
potential global threats.
60%
Everybody Fears that Third World
War is on the Horizon, Except Germany and Japan
With news of extreme violence in Syria and
Iraq, refugees flooding into Europe, Russia
breaking international norms and rules and
China testing them, it should not be surprising that six out of ten people say they
could see another world conflict involving
superpowers similar to the First and Second World Wars in the next 25 years. Even
higher numbers of Canadians and Americans agree. But, interestingly enough, in
Germany and Japan, who lost the Second
World War, the fewest number of people
agree to this statement.

50%

40%

30%

20%
Aug 2010

Nuclear / Chemical
Attack in the World
Terrorist Attack
in Your Country
Major Natural Disaster
in Your Country
Major Health Epidemic
in Your Country
Your Country Entering
Armed Conflict with
Another Country

May 2011

Sept 2012

Oct 2013

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

44%

57%

59%

67%

57%

64%

43%

54%

56%

56%

55%

69%

55%

54%

57%

56%

54%

58%

39%

35%

44%

46%

59%

52%

31%

41%

43%

44%

51%

54%

GLOBAL THREAT PERCEPTION

Perhaps a focus on crisis is not misplaced

at the Halifax International Security Forum

How real do you feel the threat is of any of the

following happening in the next twelve months?
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THE HALIFAX/IPSOS GLOBAL SNAPSHOT

where policy makers meet whose job is to deal with crises. Yet is this really the world we confront?
In fact, by many measures, conflict has actually been declining around the world in recent decades,
the number of people living in extreme poverty around the world has fallen by half, and we are on
the brink of an AIDS-free generation for the first time since it emerged.
Despite this good news, there is no question that people see the world as a more dangerous place
than five years ago. Compared with 2010, people are more worried about a terrorist attack in their
country, a nuclear or chemical attack in the world, their country entering an armed conflict, or a
major health epidemic. Compared with 2010, people are more worried about a terrorist attack in
their country, a nuclear or chemical attack in the world, their country entering an armed conflict, or a
major health epidemic. After the attacks in Paris last weekend, we have every reason to think threat
perceptions could rise even further.
At Halifax International Security Forum, remedies for global concerns will be debated. In the conversations about peace and security in East Asia, should it raise a warning flag that over 70% of
Americans and Chinese more than any other country believe that under certain conditions, war
is necessary to achieve justice? Perhaps even more remarkably, only 38% of Russians agree with
that statement. Especially after the Metrojet disaster where over 200 Russians died over Egypt, this
should be an important backdrop to understanding President Putins military options in the Middle
East, and indeed, in Ukraine.
CHANGE
FROM 2014

TOTAL n/c

STRONGLY AGREE

13%

United States 2%

76%

52%

22%

Saudi Arabia 1%

72%

50%

25%

67%

43%

15%

67%

52%

Australia 1%

15%

48%

63%

Canada 1%

14%

48

62%

India 10%

20%

France 4%

13%

Belgium 3%

13%

Turkey 9%

10%

South Africa 2%

12%

Sweden 10%

Hungary 5%
Russia 7%

40%
30%
20%

30%

41%
39%
38%

24%

38%

30%
23%

Brazil 2%

22%

35%

10%
0%
2011

2012

Canada

2013

2014

2015

United States

35%
33%
26%

20%

6% 15%

50%

44%

9%

5% 5%

54%

44%

30%

10%

65%
60%

31%

28%

Japan

46%

39%

11%

81%

79%

70%

45%

13%

12%

80%

34%

Spain 8% 8%

Argentina 1%

49%

31%

Germany 4% 8%
Mexico 1%

56%

35%

14%

STRONGLY POSITIVE / SOMEWHAT POSITIVE

90%

58%

43%

South Korea 4% 6%
Italy 2%

61%

41%
45%

17%

Poland 3%

TOTAL AGREE

49%

24%

China n/c
Great Britain 4%

SOMEWHAT AGREE

35%

21%

VIEWS OF CANADIAN AND US INFLUENCE

ON WORLD AFFAIRS
WAR NECESSARY TO ACHIEVE JUSTICE

Under some conditions war is necessary

to obtain justice. To what extent do you
agree or disagree?

Thinking about the next decade,

would you say the following countries
or organizations will have an overall
positive or a negative influence on the
world affairs?

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THE HALIFAX/IPSOS GLOBAL SNAPSHOT

Restoring America and Canadas image in the world? Or Not.

Calls for leadership on the world stage and promises to restore your countrys image in the world are
common in election campaigns. After an election in Canada last month that saw calls for restoring
Canadas place in the world, newly elected Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Canada would again be
a strong and positive actor on the world stage, particularly on climate change. In the United States,
Republican candidates for president promise to restore American global leadership, blaming what
they see as its absence for todays dangerous world.
However, there is little sign among world opinion that either countrys image in the world has suffered in recent years. Since 2011, Canada has consistently been seen by 80% of the countries in our
survey as having a positive influence on the world. Negative views of the United States during the
Bush Administration were widely observed, but US influence on world affairs has been seen as positive since 2011, with an uptick this year to 65% in the countries surveyed.
Maybe the new government in Canada and the next government in the United States wont be starting from such a bad place after all.
No Future for Isolationists.
What a difference a year can make. A little over a year ago, the isolationist U.S.
Senator Rand Paul was called the most
interesting man in politics on the cover of TIME Magazine, and many warned
about the war weary publics after over
a decade of conflict in Afghanistan and
Iraq. Today, Senator Paul is in single digits in presidential polling, and few are
calling for pulling back from the world.
While people around the world say
they want to focus more at home
than abroad, they also continue to
strongly support helping other countries after natural disasters and famines, imposing economic sanctions
against countries that behave badly,
and assisting countries with less developed economies.
Moreover, and particularly significant,
seven years after President Bush left
office widely criticized for trying to
build democracy in the Muslim world,
three-quarters of those in the countries surveyed say their country should
help with the growth of democracy in
the world.

CHANGE
FROM 2014

My country should help parts

of the world that are experiencing difficulties such as
natural disasters or famines.

3%

79%

My country should help

the growth of democracy
in the world.

1%

75%

My country should support

economic sanctions against
countries that behave badly
in the world, or treat their
own people badly.

1%

74%

My country has a
responsibility to be a
moral leader in the world and
set an example for other
countries to follow.

1%

72%

My country should assist

countries that have less
developed economies.

1%

64%

I support the international

coalition's airstrikes against
the Islamic State in Syria and
the Levant (ISIL).

5%

59%

GLOBAL ENGAGEMENT

To what extent do you agree or disagree

with these statements?

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THE HALIFAX/IPSOS GLOBAL SNAPSHOT

The strongest case for global isolationism

seemed to be that, when the economy is
bad, people look inward and are willing
to do less abroad. Yet, comparing the
views of those who think the economy
is good vs. those who think the economy
is bad shows differences of only 5-10%
lower support among those who see the
economy as bad. While policy makers at
Halifax need to be aware of the impact
of economics on the appetite for global
engagement, perhaps they need not be
handcuffed by it.
Cant We All Just Get Along?
Yes, Says Seoul.
The overriding question at Halifax International Security Forum is to ask
from each other, what is in the realm
of the possible in the effort to secure
our democracies? Can we indeed cooperate on global threats? Globally,
63% of the countries surveyed said
they had enough common values with
the United States to cooperate on solving many international problems. A resounding 81% of Canadians agree.

84%
79%
75%

80%
77%

66%
72%

73%

75%

67%

55%

57%

ASSESS NATIONAL ECONOMY AS GOOD

ASSESS NATIONAL ECONOMY AS BAD

I support
Assist
Has
Support
Help
Help parts
the intercountries responsi- economic growth of
of the
that have
bility to
sanctions democracy
world
national
in the
experienccoalitions
less
be moral
against
airstrikes developed leader in
countries
world
ing diffiagainst
economies world/set
that
culties i.e.
in example
behave
natural
the Islamic
State in
badly in
disasters/Syria and
world or
famines
treat
the Levant
(ISIL)
people
badly

ENGAGEMENT BY ECONOMY

How would you describe the current ecomonic

situation in your country? Is it very good,
somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?

Fewer around the world agreed they have enough common values to cooperate with China (50%)
or Russia (47%). The stand outs were South Koreans, who led the poll in saying they have enough
common values to cooperate with the United States, China and Russia. Given South Koreas dangerous neighborhood, this might be positive, if not indispensable for its security. It also highlights the
urge to cooperate from around the world.
What Do People Want?
Commonly held assumptions, that people are war weary, that economic crisis leads to isolationism,
that Canada and Americas image in the world need restoring, and that the world just cant get along
anymore dont hold up under the scrutiny of global polling.
When people around the world say they are worried about war, taking a momentor even the
weekendto pause and re-examine our political assumptions is important and necessary. Halifax
International Security is proud to convene these important conversations.
*The Global @dvisor Wave Survey has been conducted by Ipsos and the Halifax International Security Forum since 2011. The survey this year
was conducted between September 25th and October 9th 2015 in 24 countries round the world: Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Great Britain, Germany, Hungary, India, Israel, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Spain, Sweden, Turkey
and the United States. 17,242 adults participated in the survey, whose samples were weighted to balance demographics and ensure that the
samples composition reflects that of the adult population according to the most recent country Census data. The survey has an estimated
margin of error of 4.5%.

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