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每日交投策略
MARKET DATELINE
2010 年 4 月 27 日
市场技术解读
这波复苏走势的持续能力仍令人感到质疑…
本地股市的交投指引∶
♦ 本地股市周一在趁低吸购活动于午盘增加下展开了一轮温和的反弹,归功于亚洲股市和欧洲股市因希腊债务问题的疑虑获得
缓和而普遍收高。
♦ 区域投资者扯购股项,主要因为他们认为,希腊在上周五所启动欧盟(EU)和国际货币基金(IMF)的拯救计划将有助于该
国避免违约其债务。同时,美国道琼斯工商指数(DJIA)上周五上冲至 19 个月新高的走势,也改善了交投士气。
技术解读∶
♦ 随着该指数以一根白烛收盘,它已取得了它所需发动技术反弹的确认性蜡烛。
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2010 年 4 月 27 日
每日交投策略∶
♦ 技术而言,昨日所形成的白烛和正面短期解读已加强了技术反弹的展望。
♦ 惟鉴于近来低靡的交投量,这波复苏走势的持续能力仍令人感到质疑。
♦ 再者,随着为期 2 日的美国联邦公开市场操作委员会(FOMC)会议即将来临,加上美国参议院也料将在本周对美国金融体
系的改革进行表决,因此我们认为,在近期市场走向还未转为明朗之前,大部分的投资者将会离场观望。
表 1 ∶每日统计 表 2∶主要海外指数及原产品
4月 4月 4月 4月 4月 变动 变动
收盘
股市摘要 20 日 21 日 22 日 23 日 26 日 本地主要指数 (点) (%)
上升股 富时大马综合指数 1,340.07 3.29 0.2
456 399 333 305 362
下跌股 富时大马 100 指数 8,824.07 19.01 0.2
230 288 307 352 306
平盘 富时大马创业板 4,213.81 39.46 0.9
293 300 324 333 306
无交易 各大海外指数
384 376 398 369 384
道琼斯工商指数 11,205.03 0.75 0.0
市场资本 纳斯达克指数 2,522.95 -7.20 -0.3
总成交量 标准与普尔 500 1,212.05 -5.23 -0.4
(百万股) 797 875 834 818 800 伦敦金融时报指数 5,753.85 30.20 0.5
总成交值 恒生指数 21,587.06 342.57 1.6
(百万令吉) 1,218 1,293 1,190 943 936 雅加达综合指数 2,944.71 19.98 0.7
东京日经 225 指数 11,165.79 251.33 2.3
外汇 首尔综合指数 1,752.20 15.17 0.9
令吉兑美元 3.2045 3.1950 3.1955 3.1900 3.1810 上海综合指数 2,969.50 -14.04 -0.5
曼谷综合指数 764.34 9.76 1.3
资料来源∶RHBInvest &彭博社( Bloomberg) 富时新加坡海峡时报指
数 3,002.62 14.13 0.5
台湾加权指数 8,158.14 153.25 1.9
印度 Sensex 指数 17,745.28 51.08 0.3
主要原产品
纽约商品交易所
(NYMEX)原油期货
(每桶/美元) 84.20 -0.92 -1.1
MDEX 原棕油 – 第 3
个月 (每公吨/令吉) 2,560.00 20.00 0.8
美国利率 目前 最新
10 年 3 月
隔夜联邦基金利率 0-0.25% 无变动
16 日
下个联邦公开市场操作
2010 年 4 月 27 日-28 日
委员会(FOMC)会议
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2010 年 4 月 27 日
图 3∶吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)(日线图) 图 4∶吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)(单日线图)
技术解读∶
♦ 受激励于区域的反弹走势,吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)周一在新趁低吸购活动下向上转高。
♦ 换言之,除非期指今日能够划出另一根白烛,否则它将往下试叩 10 日移动平均线的风险已宣告提高。
♦ 有鉴于此,任何从当前水平反弹的走势料将不如之前所想象中地强。相反地,真正的恐惧在于期指是否会在近日丢失 10 日
移动平均线。
每日交投策略∶
♦ 相反地,“类似上吊线”的形成显示市场已出现回档风险。
♦ 从当前技术前景所出现不明朗的情况看来,交易员料将维持谨慎。
表 3∶吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)收盘
FKLI (月份) 变动
合约 开盘 最高 最低 收盘 (点) 结算 成交量 未平仓宗数
10 年 4 月 1344.50 1345.50 1339.00 1343.00 3.00 1343.00 5382 18751
10 年 5 月 1344.50 1345.00 1339.00 1343.50 4.00 1343.50 3194 1883
10 年 6 月 1343.00 1344.00 1337.00 1342.00 4.00 1342.00 69 505
10 年 9 月 1342.00 1344.00 1336.50 1342.50 4.50 1342.00 16 227
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2010 年 4 月 27 日
图 5∶美国道琼斯工商指数(DJIA)(日线图) 图 6∶美国纳斯达克指数(Nasdaq)(日线图)
美国股市的交投指引∶
♦ 美股周一在银行股带头走低下回吐了早前的升势,鉴于市场担心有关金融领域的改革将会打击该领域的盈利。
技术解读∶
♦ 由于套利活动的出现,这导致它形成一根“十字线”(doji),反映出来日走势不明朗。
♦ 在它形成一根“负面孕线型态”(negative harami)后,这显示近日的多头动力已缓和下来。
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2010 年 4 月 27 日
每日技术焦点∶
图 7∶ 东亚卫星全球( Measat)(日线图) 图 8∶东亚卫星全球(单日线图)
即将在近期进一步下跌…
♦ 尽管如此,这反而触发了强大卖压,并引来持续性的套利活动。
技术解读∶
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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
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