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每日交投策略
MARKET DATELINE
2010 年 4 月 30 日
市场技术解读
仍缺乏正面确认讯号,宜维持谨慎…
本地股市的交投指引∶
♦ 在美国联邦储备局(Federal Reserve)承诺将继续较长时间维持目前宽松的货币政策后,马股便在周四早盘展开一轮温和
的反弹。
♦ 可是,一如大部分亚洲股市一样,本地股市在早盘中段开始往下走低,主要因为市场担心主权债务问题可能会蔓延至其它欧
元区成员国,尤其是在标准与普尔(Standard & Poor’s)调低西班牙的信贷评级后。西班牙的国内生产总值规模几乎相等
于希腊和葡萄牙的 5 倍。
♦ 加上市场也担忧中国将会采取更多紧缩措施,迫使投资者一再返回谨慎格局。这也使到区域股市收盘时起落参半。富时新加
坡海峡时报指数扬升了 0.92%,但是上海综合指数却再挫 1.10%。
技术解读∶
♦ 这意味着市场仍质疑任何潜在的技术反弹。
♦ 该指数必须形成更多白烛以说服市场将在近期出现一轮强劲的技术反弹。否则的话,空方将会迅速回流,以推低该指数回跌
至 40 日移动平均线(即 1,324 点),位于 1,305 点多达 2.6 点的技术缺口,以及 1,300 点心理关口。
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请仔细阅读位于本报告尾页的重要披露( IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES)
2010 年 4 月 30 日
每日交投策略∶
♦ 不过基于它只能恰好挂收于 10 日移动平均线,加上蜡烛形态也缺乏确认讯号,所以这料将无助于发动强力的跟进买盘动
力。
♦ 我们认为,鉴于近来的每日成交量相当缓慢,因此它必须记录更多白烛以激励当前呆滞的交投情绪。
♦ 同时,为了维持技术反弹,每日交投量应达到 10 亿至 12 亿股之间,同时也必须获得一个正面的大盘涨跌家数比率,以便
推动交投活动。
♦ 否则,空方将会趁着市场温和反弹而趁机减少持票。
♦ 因此,我们将维持谨慎,并在市场出现更多技术讯号后,才转换我们的短期看法。
表 1 ∶每日统计 表 2∶主要海外指数及原产品
4月 4月 4月 4月 4月 变动 变动
收盘
股市摘要 23 日 26 日 27 日 28 日 29 日 本地主要指数 (点) (%)
上升股 富时大马综合指数 1,335.86 2.69 0.2
305 362 178 236 347
下跌股 富时大马 100 指数 8,778.16 16.69 0.2
352 306 502 472 363
平盘 富时大马创业板 4,163.63 -13.59 -0.3
333 306 308 276 279
无交易 各大海外指数
369 384 377 385 378
道琼斯工商指数 11,167.32 122.05 1.1
市场资本 纳斯达克指数 2,511.92 40.19 1.6
总成交量 标准与普尔 500 1,206.78 15.42 1.3
(百万股) 818 800 975 831 899 伦敦金融时报指数 5,617.84 31.23 0.6
总成交值 恒生指数 20,778.92 -170.48 -0.8
(百万令吉) 943 936 1,195 1,118 988 雅加达综合指数 2,926.86 23.54 0.8
东京日经 225 指数 10,924.79 0.00 0.0
外汇 首尔综合指数 1,728.42 -5.49 -0.3
令吉兑美元 3.1900 3.1810 3.1860 3.2160 3.1960 上海综合指数 2,868.43 -31.90 -1.1
曼谷综合指数 753.2 3.71 0.5
资料来源∶RHBInvest &彭博社( Bloomberg) 富时新加坡海峡时报指
数 2,959.01 26.97 0.9
台湾加权指数 8,054.05 -27.50 -0.3
印度 Sensex 指数 17,503.47 123.39 0.7
主要原产品
纽约商品交易所
(NYMEX)原油期货
(每桶/美元) 85.17 1.95 2.3
MDEX 原棕油 – 第 3
个月 (每公吨/令吉) 2,531.00 -16.00 -0.6
美国利率 目前 最新
10 年 4 月
隔夜联邦基金利率 0-0.25% 无变动
27 日-28 日
下个联邦公开市场操作
2010 年 6 月 22 日-23 日
委员会(FOMC)会议
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2010 年 4 月 30 日
图 3∶吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)(日线图) 图 4∶吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)(单日线图)
技术解读∶
♦ 经过长达 2 日的显著回档后,吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)周四趁着隔夜美股反弹和欧洲股市早盘走高而回弹。
♦ 从图表看来,FKLI 取得一根小黑烛,显示昨日的复苏走势可能会暂停。
每日交投策略∶
♦ 从疲弱的技术解读看来,期货市场还是有可能会下跌。
表 3∶吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)收盘
FKLI (月份) 变动
合约 开盘 最高 最低 收盘 (点) 结算 成交量 未平仓宗数
10 年 4 月 1333.00 1334.50 1331.00 1333.50 5.50 1333.50 3130 10048
10 年 5 月 1335.00 1335.50 1331.50 1334.50 6.00 1334.50 3909 14647
10 年 6 月 1331.50 1334.50 1330.50 1333.00 6.00 1333.50 92 527
10 年 9 月 1331.00 1332.50 1331.00 1332.00 5.50 1333.00 8 244
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2010 年 4 月 30 日
图 5∶美国道琼斯工商指数(DJIA)(日线图) 图 6∶美国纳斯达克指数(Nasdaq)(日线图)
美国股市的交投指引∶
♦ 华尔街股市周四扩大反弹动力,主要受激励于一些出色的季度业绩和令人鼓舞的经济数据。
♦ 此外,希腊的援助进展和美国金融改革也出现更多确定因素,也有助于重新吸引跟进趁低吸购活动。
♦ 3 个德国主要反对党领袖同意加快批准高达 84 亿欧元的援助金,从而点燃了希腊已逐步接近获得援助计划的希望。另一方
面,美国参议院已开始了金融改革立法的辩论,当中可能会有一些足以大幅修改金融改革条规的修正。
技术解读∶
♦ 通过形成一根巨大的白烛,我们预计来日将会出现更多涨势。
♦ 随着它以一根巨大白烛报收,这显示一轮延伸性的反弹将出现。
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2010 年 4 月 30 日
每日技术焦点∶
图 7∶ 贝利赛( Perisai)(日线图) 图 8∶ 贝利赛(单日线图)
已准备就绪于今日进一步回退…
♦ 不过,该股在触及 10 个月新高后,强大套利活动便涌现,迫使其股价暴跌。
♦ 从动力指标往下转低看来,加上近来利淡的蜡烛形态,该股已准备就绪将在今日进一步回退。
技术解读∶
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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
This report has been prepared by RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd (RHBRI) and is for private circulation only to clients of RHBRI and RHB Investment Bank Berhad
(previously known as RHB Sakura Merchant Bankers Berhad). It is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. The
opinions and information contained herein are based on generally available data believed to be reliable and are subject to change without notice, and may differ or
be contrary to opinions expressed by other business units within the RHB Group as a result of using different assumptions and criteria. This report is not to be
construed as an offer, invitation or solicitation to buy or sell the securities covered herein. RHBRI does not warrant the accuracy of anything stated herein in any
manner whatsoever and no reliance upon such statement by anyone shall give rise to any claim whatsoever against RHBRI. RHBRI and/or its associated persons
may from time to time have an interest in the securities mentioned by this report.
This report does not provide individually tailored investment advice. It has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives
of persons who receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. RHBRI recommends that investors independently evaluate
particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial adviser. The appropriateness of a particular investment or
strategy will depend on an investor’s individual circumstances and objectives. Neither RHBRI, RHB Group nor any of its affiliates, employees or agents accepts
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This report has been prepared by the research personnel of RHBRI. Facts and views presented in this report have not been reviewed by, and may not reflect
information known to, professionals in other business areas of the “Connected Persons,” including investment banking personnel.
The research analysts, economists or research associates principally responsible for the preparation of this research report have received compensation based
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Technical Recommendation:
Trading Buy = Short-term positive opportunity spotted. It is an aggressive trading recommendation with a book to sellers’ price for short-term technical upside.
Bargain Buy = Short-term positive but technical signals have yet to trigger a rally. Traders can park and queue for their desired entry level within a small range.
Buy on Weakness = Short- to Medium-term positiveness anticipated, but technical readings are still negative. Traders can pick-up the stock for future rally.
Sell on Strength = Short-term momentum still positive, Traders are advice to lock in profit base on current strength.
Take Profit = Short-term target achieved. Traders are advice to exit before the technical readings turn bearish.
Avoid = Risky situation in the short-term and high volatility expected on the share price. Traders’ best strategy is staying away until it stabilises.
Technical recommendations are generally short-term in nature and may differ from RHBRI’s equity fundamental view and recommendation on the same company.
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