THE NATIONAL OUTLOOK 1986-2001

NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

NET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED

BY INDUSTRY CATEGORY
net % +/-
% % no % % don’t net % seasonally
INDUSTRY CATEGORIES increase change decrease know +/- adjusted

MINING 31 59 5 5 26 22

CONSTRUCTION 37 52 8 3 29 15

MFG.–DURABLE GOODS 24 56 15 5 9 7

MFG.–NON-DURABLE GOODS 23 60 12 5 11 8

TRANS. & PUBLIC UTILITIES 22 64 9 5 13 12

WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES 32 55 8 5 24 16

FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE 20 67 8 5 12 11

EDUCATION - PUBLIC & PRIVATE 21 63 12 4 9 8

SERVICES 28 60 7 5 21 17

PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION 25 66 5 4 20 15

ALL INDUSTRIES 27 59 9 5 18 13

UNITED STATES
WORLD HEADQUARTERS
5301 North Ironwood Road
Milwaukee, Wisconsin 53217

www.us.manpower.com

The quarterly Employment Outlook

Survey has been conducted as a
public service of Manpower Inc. for
25 years. The survey was designed
and is administered by Manpower’s
Market Research and Analysis
Department, utilizing a statistically
representative sample of nearly 16,000
public and private employers from
among ten industrial sectors in 486
U.S. markets.
The third quarter 2001 survey
is a measurement of employment
plans for the permanent workforce.
The survey results reflect the intentions
of the sample employers interviewed.
Some of these intentions may change
unexpectedly upon the conclusion of
this survey.
 MANPOWER INC.

EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK SURVEY

THIRD QUARTER 2001

DECLINE IN HIRING ACTIVITY
SEEN AHEAD
The slowdown in hiring will THE OUTLOOK BY INDUSTRY 1986-2001
continue throughout the nation
in the upcoming third quarter as MINING CONSTRUCTION
companies across all industries
act very cautiously in taking
on more people. When the
impact of seasonal variation is
removed, staffing projections in
all sectors declined from prior
year levels and present expec-
MANUFACTURING - DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURING - NON-DURABLE GOODS
tations regionally are at or near
one-half of those recorded in
the survey of six months ago.
The past decade has seen
substantial productivity gains,
and staffing patterns due to
this influence are requiring a
consolidation, which should TRANSPORTATION & PUBLIC UTILITIES WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES
not be considered extraordinary.
Not since the early 1980’s has
activity in manufacturing firms
been more sluggish at this time
of year. Best opportunities for
employment are in sectors that
traditionally are active in this
season such as Construction FINANCE, INSURANCE & REAL ESTATE EDUCATION - PUBLIC & PRIVATE
and Wholesale & Retail Trades.

SERVICES PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION

NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

NET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED
THE NORTHEAST OUTLOOK 1986-2001

NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

NET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED

BY INDUSTRY CATEGORY NORTHEAST

% % no % % don’t
net % +/-
net % seasonally
Consistency has been the hallmark of
INDUSTRY CATEGORIES increase change decrease know +/- adjusted the Northeast during the current year.
MINING 0 100 0 0 0 -1 Net hiring strength has remained almost
constant for all three quarters. Job
CONSTRUCTION 35 53 9 3 26 10
opportunities are best in Pennsylvania
MFG.–DURABLE GOODS 20 62 13 5 7 6 and Massachusetts, while New York and
New Jersey lag well behind. Prospects
MFG.–NON-DURABLE GOODS 24 58 12 6 12 9
are better in smaller communities in those
TRANS. & PUBLIC UTILITIES 25 60 11 4 14 11 states than in large metropolitan areas.
The Construction industry, where basic
WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES 34 52 9 5 25 17
work must be completed during a short
FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE 22 60 11 7 11 13 season, is the most aggressive industry,
EDUCATION - PUBLIC & PRIVATE 27 63 6 4 21 23 albeit at a substantially reduced level after
sustained recruiting during the first half
SERVICES 31 58 6 5 25 19
of this year. While plans in Wholesale &
PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION 19 73 5 3 14 10 Retail Trades trail those of last year,
the decline is somewhat tempered as
ALL INDUSTRIES 27 59 9 5 18 14
preliminary recruiting begins for the
year-end holiday rush. Only in this region
CONNECTICUT
MAINE does the outlook remain bright among
MASSACHUSETTS Education employers. Possibilities
NEW HAMPSHIRE among manufacturing companies are
NEW JERSEY
NEW YORK more limited than any like period in
PENNSYLVANIA a decade.
RHODE ISLAND
VERMONT
THE MIDWEST OUTLOOK 1986-2001

NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

NET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED

BY INDUSTRY CATEGORY MIDWEST

% % no % % don’t
net % +/-
net % seasonally
While the outlook in the Midwest
INDUSTRY CATEGORIES increase change decrease know +/- adjusted closely resembles other areas in this
MINING 20 80 0 0 20 11 traditionally busy quarter, on a seasonally
adjusted basis, it is the weakest region
CONSTRUCTION 44 49 4 3 40 18
and there remains much uncertainty.
MFG.–DURABLE GOODS 24 56 15 5 9 5 The number of companies yet undecided
is quite high in a few important markets.
MFG.–NON-DURABLE GOODS 25 60 12 3 13 10
Strength is principally concentrated in
TRANS. & PUBLIC UTILITIES 21 68 7 4 14 13 small towns, while conditions in such
major markets as Chicago, Detroit and
WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES 33 57 7 3 26 14
Cincinnati are far below the national
FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE 17 71 7 5 10 8 average. Minneapolis, Milwaukee and
EDUCATION - PUBLIC & PRIVATE 20 64 13 3 7 4 Cleveland are much more positive.
Patterns by industry conform closely
SERVICES 29 61 6 4 23 18
to the national results. In this weather-
PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION 24 69 5 2 19 10 impacted region, Construction will
respond to seasonal urgency. The drop-
ALL INDUSTRIES 27 60 9 4 18 11
off from like periods of recent years is
ILLINOIS not as pronounced as in other industries.
INDIANA Wholesale & Retail Trades will retain the
IOWA deseasonalized level established three
KANSAS
MICHIGAN months ago, but third quarter hiring
MINNESOTA has been greater every year since 1994,
MISSOURI
NEBRASKA when a trend toward earlier staffing for
NORTH DAKOTA the year-end rush emerged. Among
OHIO Services firms, the reduction from
SOUTH DAKOTA
WISCONSIN recent years, while present, has not
been dramatic.
THE SOUTHERN OUTLOOK 1986-2001

NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

NET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED

BY INDUSTRY CATEGORY SOUTH

% % no % % don’t
net % +/-
net % seasonally
Unlike other regions, large cities in the
INDUSTRY CATEGORIES increase change decrease know +/- adjusted South are major contributors to the
MINING 34 58 4 4 30 27 forecast. Miami, Fort Lauderdale, New
Orleans and Charlotte are very optimistic.
CONSTRUCTION 30 55 10 5 20 13
Atlanta and Louisville are less so.
MFG.–DURABLE GOODS 27 53 15 5 12 10 The volatile Mining industry expressed
significant need three months ago after
MFG.–NON-DURABLE GOODS 20 63 12 5 8 7
a relative slumber of more than two
TRANS. & PUBLIC UTILITIES 20 66 8 6 12 13 years and response from those firms
now indicates the need was not fulfilled.
WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES 29 59 8 4 21 16
A more conventional hiring pattern exists
FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE 18 71 7 4 11 10 in the Public Administration field, where
EDUCATION - PUBLIC & PRIVATE 18 66 11 5 7 7 plans have varied only slightly since
mid-1998. Wholesale & Retail Trades
SERVICES 26 62 7 5 19 18
lags only marginally behind the activity
PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION 26 65 4 5 22 20 of three months ago, although more
is normally expected at this season.
ALL INDUSTRIES 25 61 9 5 16 13
Only in the South, where weather
ALABAMA MARYLAND is less of a factor, do the plans of
ARKANSAS MISSISSIPPI Construction trail three other sectors.
DELAWARE NORTH CAROLINA Expectations are lower than any
DISTRICT OKLAHOMA
OF COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA previous third quarter since 1991.
FLORIDA TENNESSEE
GEORGIA TEXAS
KENTUCKY VIRGINIA
LOUISIANA WEST VIRGINIA
THE WESTERN OUTLOOK 1986-2001

NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

NET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED

BY INDUSTRY CATEGORY WEST

% % no % % don’t
net % +/-
net % seasonally
Major markets in the region – Los
INDUSTRY CATEGORIES increase change decrease know +/- adjusted Angeles, San Francisco, Phoenix,
MINING 33 45 11 11 22 21 Seattle – are not optimistic, but smaller
markets in the area, principally in Califor-
CONSTRUCTION 41 45 11 3 30 14
nia, Washington, and Colorado, are
MFG.–DURABLE GOODS 23 51 21 5 2 0 sufficiently positive for the West to
marginally lead other regions. The brisk
MFG.–NON-DURABLE GOODS 29 52 11 8 18 15
activity will not come from Durable
TRANS. & PUBLIC UTILITIES 27 53 11 9 16 13 Goods Manufacturers, who forecast
WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES 33 50 9 8 24 17
their weakest seasonal hiring plans in
the 25-year history of the survey.
FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE 25 58 10 7 15 14 Prospects in Wholesale & Retail Trades
EDUCATION - PUBLIC & PRIVATE 25 53 17 5 8 8 have diminished from prior year for
the second consecutive quarter and
SERVICES 29 55 8 8 21 16
a three-year major recruiting effort in
PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION 29 62 6 3 23 20 the Education field has come to an
abrupt end. However, the hiring decline
ALL INDUSTRIES 30 52 11 7 19 14
among Construction firms is not
extremely pronounced and prospects
ALASKA
ARIZONA for government jobs appear good.
CALIFORNIA Services reports a steady level of hiring
COLORADO
HAWAII consistent with that of recent quarters
IDAHO and the Mining industry, which has
MONTANA become more active in the past year
NEVADA
NEW MEXICO now indicates sharply increased
OREGON staffing plans.
UTAH
WASHINGTON
WYOMING