Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Presented By
• Government publications
• The different government web-sites
Period and crop : The daily recorded data for the year 2002-
2009 on price and arrival is collected.
Crop :
• Cotton
• Soybean
METHODOLOGY
A) Trend analysis
Trend indicates an increase or decrease of prices over constant
time period.
u2 = α + β u2 (t-1) + γ u2(t-2)
Where,
α = constant
β = Coefficient of first lag
= Coefficient of second lag
u2 (t-1) = lag value of u2 at time (t-1)
u2(t-2) = lag value of u2 at time (t-2)
___
Standard deviation (SD) = √ u2
SD
Volatility per annum = ------------------- x 100
(1 / √ n )
C) To discover the future prices the suitable ARMA and ARIMA
model is found suitable and it is used for fitting trends
METHODOLOGY
C) To discover the future prices the ARIMA model is found
suitable and it is used for fitting trends
A)Trends
Linear
Soybean
Cotton
Exponential
Soybean
Cotton
B)Volatility
Soybean
Cotton