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China: A Tale of Three Swan What Healthcare Success? A Greek Sigh of Relief?
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Posted by: asiablues Post date: 03/25/2010 - 17:56 Post date: 03/25/2010 - 21:06
Post date: 03/25/2010 - 21:07 I get screwed, again. As Greeks celebrated a
The yuan-induced heated debates scaled-down parade for
prompted two prominent Independence Day, an IMF-EU
economists--Paul Krugman and accord was reached in Brussels, but
Jeffrey Frankel--to come up with many questions remain. China is
two versions of swan songs for watching nervously, increasingly
China. Ironically, the two, however worried about the large chunk of its
diverging, could still lead to the $2.4 trillion (£1.6 trillion) of foreign
same "next black swan" scenario reserves held in eurozone bonds.
warned by Albert Edwards at No wonder Trichet reversed course
SocGen last November. and came out in support of the
deal...
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1 of 55 10-03-26 4:51 AM
Goldman on the second, 03-25 22:03: Leucadia National's CFO shed 98% of his
and much more relevant, direct stake, Barrons.com says
part of Obamacare and 03-25 22:02: Warner Chilcott could climb another 30% in
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trade: tax rates going 03-25 22:01: Barrons.com thinks investors can do better
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03-25 22:00: Jim Cramer's "Mad Money"
03-25 20:58: Somaxon 6M share Secondary priced at
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03-25 20:55: Consol Energy 38.5M share Secondary
Tax policy has gained priced at $42.50
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a result of the tax increases in Evans Shoal natural gas field
used to pay for health 03-25 16:49: AAR to acquire Aviation Worldwide Services
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expiration of the Latest News From RAN Squawk
2001/2003 tax cuts and
stimulus tax provisions 03-26 03:14: Greek/German 10-year government bond
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proposed and recently 03-26 03:11: ECB says Eurosystem covered bond
enacted corporate tax purchase total EUR 43.469bln

proposals, and the 03-26 03:11: ECB says EUR 62mln borrowed using
possibility of some form of overnight loan facility, EUR 207.308bln deposited
consumption tax on energy 03-26 03:10: China vice minister says should keep major
or, in the longer term, a currencies stable since financial crisis is not over yet
broader value added tax. 03-26 03:09: SAP (SAP GY) backs 2010 guidance
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relative stability in tax permitted by request
policy (the stimulus
zero hedge's redundancy powered by:
legislation was the one
exception), the next few
years will require decisions
on several fronts:
1. Financing of health
reform. Just under a
quarter of the
fi nancing for the new
spending in the
health bill comes
from an increase in
the Medicare payroll
tax rate on income
over $250,000 (for
couples) and the
addition of a new tax
of 3.8% on “unearned
income” which
includes most forms
of income outside of
wages, including
capital gains,
dividends, and
interest. These tax
increases are
scheduled to take
effect at the start of
2013. The bill also
includes $210 billion
3 of 55 10-03-26 4:51 AM
in health industry Drupal e-commerce provided by Ubercart.

taxes, which take
effect between 2011
and 2014.
2. Extending the
2001/2003 tax cuts.
The administration
proposes extending
most of the tax cuts
set to expire at the
end of the year, but
would have the top
two marginal tax
rates increase from
33% and 35% to 36%
and 39.6% (as they
are scheduled to do
under current law)
and would set the
capital gain and
dividend rate at 20%,
up from 15% now. We
assume that the
marginal rate
incrases will take
place, but that the
capital gains and
dividend rate is likely
to end up closer to
25% for budgtary
reasons. Whatever
the outcome, the rate
increase would take
effect at the start of
2011.
3. Extending stimulus
tax provisions. The
two most significant
tax provisions in the
American Recovery
and Investment Act
(ARRA) were the
“making work pay”
credit for individuals,
which provides a
refund of payroll
taxes paid on the
fi rst $8,000 of
income, and bonus
depreciation for
corporations. Several
other smaller
individual and
corporate provisions
were also included.
We assume that the
making work pay
4 of 55 10-03-26 4:51 AM
credit will be
extended indefinitely.
However, bonus
depreciation, which
expired at the end of
2009, seems unlikely
to be renewed absent
significant renewed
economic weakness.
4. The administration’s
corporate tax
proposals. The
Obama
Administration
included a number of
corporate tax
increases in its fiscal
year 2011 budget,
which if enacted are
estimated to raise
$440 billion in
corporate tax
receipts over 10
years. We don’t
expect many of these
to be enacted this
year due to sentiment
in Congress that
most of these
proposed changes
would be better dealt
with in the context of
broad tax reform.
Given the crowded
political agenda,
large-scale tax
reform appears very
unlikely this year.
5. Climate legislation.
This may seem like
an odd item to
include in a
discussion of tax
policy, but the recent
debate over how to
deal with carbon
emissions has begun
to focus on taxes
more heavily, in two
ways: first, there
appears to be
growing interest in
limiting emissions
from the
transportation sector
through a tax on
gasoline; the energy
5 of 55 10-03-26 4:51 AM
industry has become

more open to a tax,
the auto industry
appears to support it
as a means of
reducing volatility in
fuel prices, and
Senators Kerry
(D-MA), Graham
(R-SC) and Lieberman
(ID-CT), who are
seeking a bipartisan
agreement on a
climate bill, appear
likely to include it in
their approach. An
alternative approach,
though one that
would have similar
implications, is the
“cap-and-dividend”
approach proposed
by Senators Cantwell
(D-WA) and Collins
(R-ME), which would
redirect most of the
revenue collected
from a carbon
emissions reduction
regime back to
consumers through
the tax code.
6. The fiscal
commission and
medium-term fiscal
consolidation. Shortly
after the November
elections, the fiscal
commission
established by the
president is due to
submit
recommendations to
Congress on policies
to balance the
primary budget
deficit by 2015.
Medicare cuts on top
of those just enacted
to finance health
reform would be
difficult to enact, and
the president has
already proposed a
freeze in
non-defense
discretionary
6 of 55 10-03-26 4:51 AM
spending, so there
isn’t a great deal of
spending left on the
table to cut (though
stimulus- and
fi nancial
stabilization-related
spending will taper
off automatically).
Therefore, it seems
likely that the
commission will
propose at least
some tax increases.
It’s not even clear
whether the
commission will be
able to agree on
recommendations—a
supermajority of
members must
agree—but if they do,
this could lead to the
consideration of
significant fiscal
policy changes
toward the end of the
year.
There are too many

unknowns to predict with
certainty what the
combined effect of all of
the various tax issues up
for debate will be, but it is
possible to at least take a
directional view on where
policy is headed:
Higher vs. lower

incomes: It seems
fairly clear that the
income tax rates of
higher income
taxpayers will increase
relative to the rates on
lower income
taxpayers next year.
How much depends on
two issues: first,
whether Congress
extends the tax relief
included in ARRA that
generally benefits low-
and middle-income
households, and
7 of 55 10-03-26 4:51 AM
second, whether
Congress opts to allow
higher income tax cuts
to expire. As noted
above, we expect both
of these to occur,
which should increase
the differential
between high- and
low-income tax rates.
This is likely to mean
an effective rate for
higher incomes similar
to the 1990s, while the
lower income quintiles
remain relatively
unchanged from where
they are currently (the
chart below shows
data only through
2006, due to a long
lag in reporting by the
IRS).
Effective Federal Tax

Rates
Labor vs. capital

income: Policy is likely
take a path leading to
8 of 55 10-03-26 4:51 AM
increased taxation of
passive income, such
as capital gains,
dividends, and
interest, certainly on
an absolute basis, and
potentially as a share
of total taxation. This
is due to the likely
increase noted above
in the capital gains and
dividend tax rates as a
result of the expiration
of the 2001/2003 tax
cuts, as well as the
taxes on passive
income included in the
health reform package.
The combination of
these provisions is
likely to mean a rate as
high as 25% on both
sources of income in
2011, stepping up to
roughly 29% in 2013,
from 15% today. The
chart below puts this
move in the context of
historical rates on both
sources of income.
Historical and
Estimated Tax Rates
on Capital Income
Income vs.
9 of 55 10-03-26 4:51 AM
consumption: An
increasingly prevalent
view among outside
observers is that
lawmakers will
ultimately adopt a
value added tax to
close the chronic
budget gap. There
seems to be much less
discussion of such a
tax among lawmakers
themselves, however.
This isn’t surprising
—there is little reason
to promote the
possibility of such a
tax ahead of an
election—but it does
indicate that such a tax
is probably not just
around the corner.
That said, it seems
likely that the debate
over a a federal
consumption tax in the
US will intensify. First,
as noted above,
lawmakers have begun
what is likely to be a
long but gradual push
toward fiscal
consolidation, with the
potential
recommendations of a
fi scal commission late
this year. As we’ve
noted elsewhere (for
instance see “Fiscal
Consolidation: What
Will It Take?” US
Economics Analyst
10/08, February 26,
2010), a value-added
tax or its equivalent
could be a politically
attractive alternative to
increases in the
income tax, since the
tax rate applied could
be relatively low
compared with an
income tax rate
increase. (There are
clear drawbacks as
well, such as the
regressive nature of
10 of 55 10-03-26 4:51 AM
such a tax and the

need to build an
infrastructure to
collect what would, at
least at the outset,
presumably be a fairly
small tax. This would
argue for applying
such a tax only in the
context of broad
reform, so that income
or payroll taxes can be
adjusted
simultaneously). Apart
from the possibility of
a broad-based
consumption tax,
whatever legislation
Congress ultimately
adopts to reduce
carbon emissions is
likely to impose a de
facto tax on
consumption of
energy. This debate
has become more
transparent of late,
with proposals to tax
transportation fuels
directly as noted
above. Neither of these
is likely to have an
effect on consumers in
the next couple of
years, but in both
cases the policies
could eventually
replace some of the
current revenue
collected from income
and payroll taxes.
Personal vs.
corporate taxes: Apart
from changes in how
individuals are taxed,
there is also likely to
be a shift in the
relative taxation of
individuals and
corporations. The
Obama budget, noted
above, would increase
corporate taxes by 11%
compared with current
projected corporate
tax revenue. The
11 of 55 10-03-26 4:51 AM
health reform package

will increase corporate
taxes by another 5% or
so (these taxes are
concentrated on the
health industry),
bringing the total
increase in corporate
tax liabilities to around
16%. In comparison,
the personal income
tax increases
proposed—most of
which we think will be
adopted—would
increase total income
taxes by around 6%,
and total personal
taxes (including payroll
taxes) by around half
that much. It is also
worth noting that the
last major tax reform
debate, in 1986,
modestly shifted tax
liability from
individuals to
corporations.
The tax changes noted

above are likely to occur
over several years. Tax
rates on high incomes and
capital income will increase
for 2011; tax increases in
the health bill phase in
between 2011 and 2014,
and any taxation that
comes out of climate
legislation or broader tax
reform is likely to be
several years off.
The short term effect of

these changes could vary
substantially depending on
when they are
implemented. For instance,
a capital gains tax increase
in 2011 could have a
counterintuitive effect, by
prompting investors to
liquidate holdings this year
ahead of the increase in
rates. There is empirical
evidence demonstrating
that investors tend to
12 of 55 10-03-26 4:51 AM
spend a portion of cash

coming into brokerage
accounts, though the effect
tends to be stronger for
dividend income than for
capital gains (see for
instance Baker, Malcolm P.,
Nagel, Stefan and Wurgler,
Jeffrey A., “The Effect of
Dividends on
Consumption,” March
2007).
A second possible
counterintuitive effect is
the significant difference in
fi scal multipliers in a zero
interest rate environment.
A recent paper from the
New York Fed explores the
possibility that tax cuts on
capital and labor could
actually have a negative
near term effect on demand
when rates are at zero, by
encouraging additional
saving and reducing wage
pressure with the eventual
effect of higher real interest
rates (see Gauti B.
Eggertsson, “What Fiscal
Policy Is Effective at Zero
Interest Rates? Federal
Reserve Bank of New York
Staff Report No. 402,
November 2009).
A more intuitive result is

that the multiplier attached
to consumption-related
taxes increases
substantially in a zero rate
environment, implying that
if lawmakers were to
attempt to implement one
of the consumption-related
taxes in the near term, it
could have an even more
severe negative effect on
demand than it normally
would. Of course, these
results are relevant mainly
to the short term effect of
temporary tax policies
meant as stimulus rather
than the effects of longer
term tax decisions. And
13 of 55 10-03-26 4:51 AM
there are clearly other

considerations that must
also be taken into account,
such as the potential for a
capital income tax increase
to put pressure on equity
prices, thereby decreasing
demand. The bottom line
is that as lawmakers
undertake what are likely to
be significant changes in
tax policy, they will need to
be recognize that these
changes will take effect in
an economic environment
different from any they
have encountered in the
past.
Alec Phillips
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by Nihilarian
on Thu, 03/25/2010
- 14:29
#275957
Let's call it by what it is:
Economic Tranquilizer.
Login or register to post

comments
by Vacca
on Thu,
03/25/2010 -
14:33
Expect to see more
#275961
businesses moving their
operations overseas as a
result and more individuals
taking as much as they can
offshore. Cant help but think
that the economy will just
get worse as tax rates go up.
This is where the

government might finally
understand how allowing
companies to offshore more
14 of 55 10-03-26 4:51 AM
and more middle class jobs

has not only decimated the
ability of the middle class to
consume, but also to pay
taxes.

comments
by Mako
on Thu,
03/25/2010 -
15:13
All you need is one State
#276017
to cancel their
agreements (repeal
Acts) with the Federal
government and the
rush will be on to that
State.
I have no idea what the

State Attorney Generals
are so upset about.
Cancel the agreements
and be done with it.
The tax bills are going
to have to keep going
up otherwise, until the
States are BKd.
The Federal government

is in charge of running
State programs, that is
how their reach within
the State.... it's done
under State law. If you
don't believe me, go
read your State code.

comments
by cougar_w
on Thu,
03/25/2010 -
14:34
It's either higher taxes, or
#275966
default. Could be both I
suppose. But by promising
to raise taxes "someday" you
can continue to reel in
foreign investors to buy
bonds. So they have no
choice but to say they are
going to raise taxes
15 of 55 10-03-26 4:51 AM
"someday" even if actually

doing so would fatally
poison the economy.
In an informal race you claim

you are not really racing in
the hope that the other guy
might believe you and slow
up. Applies in a race to the
bottom, too. It all comes
down in the end to
subterfuge and information
warfare.

comments
by knukles
on Thu,
03/25/2010 -
15:04
Both!
#276010
You can bet your
bottom quintile taxed
dollar that for all the
extra blood squeezed
from the American
Taxpayer, there'll be
absolutely NO
corresponding
curtailment of
expenditures.
Anybody wanna bet the

under on all the
business and wealth
that's gonna make its
way to more friendly
tax, regulatiory and
legal (read violation of
secured debt holder's
rights a la GM and
Chrysler) environments?
Not to mention the
continued
bastardization of the
free-enterprise system
by the Financial-
Congressional Complex.
Once the money starts

to disappear, that'll be
the final straw along
with diminishing rights,
for once the do-ray-me
is gone, no amount of
bread and circuses
gonna keep the animal
16 of 55 10-03-26 4:51 AM
spirits satisfied.
Let alone.....
Our tax money now
going to bail out Greece
via the IMF? Shoot the
Euro, solidify the dollar's
waning preeminence.
This is getting serious,

folks. Serious.
Time to start
reconsidering traditional
risk premia
relationships.

comments
by
twotraps
on Thu,
03/25/2010 -
that is exactly
19:55
right....no
#276355
curtailment of
expenditures.
Like a restaurant
that has declining
business...they keep
raising prices to
make up for all the
shortfall. Seems
like a good plan.
Pathetic
Login or register to
post comments
by dark
pools of
soros
on Thu,
it truly sucks
03/25/2010 -
since counties
21:50
do go the extra
#276458
mile and cut
their budgets
(at least mine
is) but if we are
going to just
steamrolled by
all this fed
spending.. why
17 of 55 10-03-26 4:51 AM
the fuck
shouldn't we all
just go BK first
before the
country does?
Login or register
to post comments
by Cognitive
Dissonance
on Thu,
03/25/2010 - 15:06
Agreed. When you've
#276014
got nothing left to sell
but still are dependent
upon the income, you
resort to lying, cheating
and stealing, those
wonderful puritanical
values we heard so
much about from
politicans over the last
20 (50? 100?) or so
years.

comments
by
DoChenRollingBearing
on Thu,
Agree with all
03/25/2010 -
above.
16:59
Like I am going to
#276179
invest in anything
now. From here
out, it is wealth
preservation for
me. Invest in
anything, get taxed
more. Hire anyone,
wow, that's taking a
chance! With the
crooks in charge
now...
As my taxes go up,
the only thing I can
see to do is to
spend less.
Spending less has a
bonus that a higher
income does not: no
taxes on unspent
money! Not much
fun spending less
18 of 55 10-03-26 4:51 AM
though.
Buying, holding and

eventually quietly
giving away GOLD is
another good
alternative for
longer term
thinkers.
post comments
by Rick64
on Thu,
03/25/2010 -
14:38
This is inevitable, so even if
#275969
the economy was to recover
and inflation sets in the
taxpayer will still be in a
recession.

comments
by A Man
without Q...
on Thu,
03/25/2010 - 15:12
+101
#276031
Taxpayer is going to get

squeezed with both
higher taxes and yields
that are going to be
below true inflation. For
the average citizen, they
are about to get even
more poor over the next
few years.
But never mind, just buy

stocks and pray the PPT
will watch your back and
make you rich...

comments
by schoolsout
on Thu,
03/25/2010 -
14:40
well....what can one say?
#275972
It's like you're in a horse
19 of 55 10-03-26 4:51 AM
race riding a fukcing cow.

comments
by Sudden Debt
on Thu,
03/25/2010 -
14:42
These last few years, we
#275974
learned 7 important lessons:
1. YES, because we can
2. YOU are part of this

democrazy
3. GIVE, and you will receive
4. MONEY, doesn't make you

happy
5. TO much of anything
isn't good
6. US, land of the brave

comments
by
schoolsout
on Thu,
03/25/2010 - 14:46
Am I not seeing the 7th
#275979
for a reason?

comments
by Nihilarian
on Thu,
03/25/2010
- 14:51
7. Chump change is
#275985
the cost of these
government
entitlements and
bailouts.
post comments
by Problem
Is
on Thu,
03/25/2010 -
7. Whenever a
17:09
Goldmanite speaks,
#276188
look for the cash
20 of 55 10-03-26 4:51 AM
motive.
or
7. Whenever a
Goldmanite speaks,
it is a trail balloon
for the government.
post comments
by Mako
on Thu,
03/25/2010 -
14:58
The only way this stops is if
#275987
you get your State to cancel
all the Federal program
agreements. The States will
be going belly up and the
Federal government will
come in to restructure
otherwise.
Unless you take your State

capital buildings back you
can expect the bills to get
bigger and bigger, until
(insert your State here) goes
belly up. Texas is already
expecting a $20 billion bill
coming it's way, they have
no idea, it's not going to
stop.
Restructuring of your State

governments is coming up if
they don't start canceling
the Acts that allow the
Federal government to reach
into the State. You have
been lied to by your State
government, they setup the
agreements then blame DC
for the problems. The
problem is in your State's
capital dome.
http://worlddarkestdays.blogspot.com/

comments
by bugs_
on Thu,
03/25/2010 -
14:52
Could Goldman be right this
21 of 55 10-03-26 4:51 AM
time?
#275988

comments
by
GlassHammer
on Thu,
They are 03/25/2010
doing God's -
14:54
work so I can't see how
#275990
they are wrong. :)

comments
by
VegasBD
on Thu,
03/25/2010 -
Except in the FX
15:15
markets. Of course,
#276034
God's never been
good with money,
he is all powerful
but still needs
mortals to fund his
franchises
everywhere.
heheheh
post comments
by
Attitude_Check
on Thu,
"Why does GOD
03/25/2010
need a -
19:01
STARSHIP?"
#276314
Login or register
to post comments
by Joe Sixpack
on Thu, 03/25/2010
- 14:53
#275989
"Here Come Higher Taxes:
Goldman On Imminent Tax
Increases"
Translation: Fed, we need

more bailouts. Squeeze the
slaves some more.
22 of 55 10-03-26 4:51 AM

comments
by Problem Is
on Thu,
03/25/2010 -
17:11
+1
#276193
And we Goldmanites will
announce it so Bennie
and Timmay don't have
to...

comments
by docj
on Thu,
03/25/2010 -
15:05
Dang, didn't see that
#276012
coming. < /sarc >

comments
by Shameful
on Thu,
03/25/2010 -
15:11
This is downright comical.
#276028
Hell why not. When you
have already blown out the
economy and are
consolidating it under the
state why not squeeze the
people. Clearly we are to
stupid and lazy to resist.
Where is zombie Thomas
Jefferson when you need
him?!?!?

comments
by crosey
on Thu,
03/25/2010 -
15:34
If you look at him with
#276061
one eye closed....he
could be Jefferson.
http://www.youtube.com
/watch?v=MfkHkdu5IEI

comments
23 of 55 10-03-26 4:51 AM
by Vulgus Porkulus
on Thu, 03/25/2010 -
15:42
#276066
Actually, the Trillion + bank
bailout was the first thing to
clue me in to higher future
taxes, but I guess GS was
busy during that one. Nice
to see they woke up and
noticed entitlement
spending.

comments
by Shameful
on Thu,
03/25/2010 -
15:48
They might have missed
#276077
that one for their
projections...after all
whats a few trillion
dollars between friends?

comments
by the grateful un...

on Thu,
03/25/2010 -
15:42
i still don't see how those
#276069
tax increases are going to
close the deficit? the
problem being that 20% of
the people now have 80% of
the money, and you increase
their rate of taxation what, a
few percent? the system
works a lot better when you
raise taxes incrementally on
a lot of people, (aka the
former middle class)
concerning VAT, on top of

the already 10% my local
constabulary already
charges? I'd like to see that

comments
by
Gordon_Gekko
on Thu,
03/25/2010 - 15:51
The intent never was or
#276084
will be ever to close the
24 of 55 10-03-26 4:51 AM
deficit, but to rob and

pillage the populace as
much as they can.
CONgress/US Govt.
doesn't give two shits
about the deficit.

comments
by Gordon_Gekko
on Thu,
03/25/2010 -
15:49
Let's just call it what it is:
#276083
SLAVERY. I see people going
to cash economy/black
markets (free markets is
really what they are) - not
out of choice (most sheeple
don't have enough brains to
even contemplate such a
thing) but out of necessity.
TAXES = SLAVERY

comments
by Rick64
on Thu,
03/25/2010 -
15:55
They are
#276090
unconstitutional and
one of the biggest
scams they have pulled
on the U.S. citizen.
Check out all the former
IRS agents that say that
there is no law
supporting income tax
on an individual. Don't
take my word for it,
research it.

comments
by
Neophiliac
on Thu,
03/25/2010 -
Wow. Just WOW.
21:10
Glenn Beck much?
#276431
16th Amendment
reads:
"The Congress shall
25 of 55 10-03-26 4:51 AM
have power to lay

and collect taxes on
incomes, from
whatever source
derived, without
apportionment
among the several
States, and without
regard to any
census or
enumeration."
post comments
by
Rick64
on
Thu,
I don't watch
03/25/2010 -
Glenn Beck. He
22:06
is an
#276470
entertainer. The
16th
amendment
was never
ratified by 3/4
of the states as
required by
law. Some of
the states
ratified it
against
provisions in
their state
constitutions .
Besides not
being ratified it
is against the
constitution
itself. A lot of
people mistake
IRS code and
policy as law
but it isn't.
I would like to
hear any
argument on
this.
Login or register
to post comments
by Shameful
on Thu,
03/25/2010 -
15:59
There is a reason why
26 of 55 10-03-26 4:51 AM
#276097
the IRS is arming up
(yeah they need
shotguns...) and they
are trying to kill cash
transactions. Wait till
they try to phase out
cash, that will be "fun".

comments
by
on Thu,
When those "fun"
03/25/2010
days come (no-
17:04
cash), I will be
#276183
comforted by my
gold and my guns.
I suspect millions
more of us will be
comforted by same.
Yeah, come and get

it and see what
happens. Fun
indeed.
post comments
by
Shameful
WellThu,
on the issue
03/25/2010
we will have is-
17:23
Uncle Sugar will
#276211
frown on
transactions
outside of his
grid. Though
that's where the
guns come in.
Hope it will be
millions that
are prepared
but I suspect
the number is
far less.
If you don't
mind me
asking, what
keeps you
here? Reading
sounds like you
do business
27 of 55 10-03-26 4:51 AM
here but why

not bail out and
go to Peru for
example? As a
young man with
few assets I'm
eyeing the
door, and I
assume if I had
wealth that
Uncle Sugar
wanted to steal
I would be
eyeing the door
even more.
Login or register
to post comments
by
Thu,
on staying
Re
03/25/2010
vs. going,
-
my19:14
wife
#276329
(Peruvian)
and I talk
about that
from time
to time.
Our family
business is
in Peru, we
go twice a
year. We
are in our
mid 50s.
USA: More
and better
bookstores,
bit less
crime, air
conditioning,
better (for
now) legal
code,
right-wing
talk radio,
no
European
visa hassles
for my wife
since she
became a
citizen
here.
28 of 55 10-03-26 4:51 AM
Peru:
CHEAP!
Food is
good.
Some
routine
things are
hard to get
done there
though.
The
corruption
is more
blatant,
and you
cannot get
legal
redress if
you are
wronged
(eg, the
cops won't
bust-up
that ring of
counterfeiters
making
fake
Chinese
bearings
that pass
as our
Korean).
.....
A
suggestion!
Take some
of those
few assets
and visit
another
country or
two. Read
up on them
fi rst. Try to
stay at
least a
month so
that you
more or
less know
how things
work
(perhaps a
"between
jobs kind of
thing").
29 of 55 10-03-26 4:51 AM
Also,
before you
bail, it is
important
to note that
speaking
the local
language is
a BIG help.
Login or
register to
post
comments
by
Shameful
Awesome,
on
thanks
Thu,
for the
03/25/2010
reply.
-
My
19:27
plan
#276339
right
now is
to save
and I'm
taking
a trip
this
summer
to look
at
places
with
my
folks
for
their
possible
retirement.
My dad
is
leaning
towards
staying
here or
South
America
and my
mom is
wanting
to see
Asia.
30 of 55 10-03-26 4:51 AM
I get a
insane
amount
of
vacation
so I'm
going
to try
to set
up a
couple
2-3
weeks
trips
this
year.
Agree
on the
languages
but
have
not
picked
a place
yet, so
working
on
trying
to
learn
Mandarin
in case
I pick
China
or
Taiwan.
On the
plus
side I
have
an in
demand
skill-set
so that
does
open
some
doors.
Seems
like
most
of the
places
I'm
interested
in
going
31 of 55 10-03-26 4:51 AM
to
would
let me
in.
Login
or
register
to post
comments
by
Well,
on
your
Thu,
plan
03/25/2010
looks
-
pretty
23:22
good
#276547
re
checking
out
some
destinations.
Parts
of
South
America
(also
Costa
Rica
&
Panama)
are
pretty
nice
places
all
things
considered.
Casey
has
a
ranch
project
in
NW
Argentina
that
looks
good,
at
least
on
paper.
32 of 55 10-03-26 4:51 AM
Their
capital
Buenos
Aires
seemed
like
a
pretty
decent
place
(in
the
good
parts
of
town
only).
Uruguay
might
be
worth
a
look.
Asia
I
know
much
less
about,
having
only
been
to
Japan
and
China
just
once
MANY
years
ago.
Someone
else
a
few
days
ago
said
here
at
ZH
said
that
Asia
can
be
33 of 55 10-03-26 4:51 AM
nice,
but
you
will
never
really
fi t
in
with
the
locals
(with
friendliness
you
CAN
fi t
in
in
places
like
Peru).
Hard
for
me
to
say.
And
Chinese
is
hard!
Singapore
maybe?
English
spoken,
pretty
international
oriented,
and
they
crack
down
on
the
criminal
scum.
You
said
you
have
a
good
skill
set.
I
think
that
34 of 55 10-03-26 4:51 AM
indeed
would
be
another
plus
should
you
choose
to
leave.
Good
luck!
Keep
posting!
Login
or
register
to
post
comments
by
Shameful
I'm
on
a
Fri,
little
03/26/2010
leery
-
of
00:17
Panama
#276580
because
so
many
American
expats
on
a
fi xed
income.
Rapidly
they
will
not
be
welcome,
pretty
sure
those
retires
are
not
hedged
against
the
dollar.
35 of 55 10-03-26 4:51 AM
If
they
get
wiped
out,
I
got
to
think
Americas
might
not
be
as
welcome.
In
SA
I
was
looking
mainly
at
Chile
and
Uruguay.
They
looked
like
the
best
shot
at
stability
and
economic
growth.
One
of
my
dad's
friends
works
for
the
UN
(amazing
the
people
you
meet
in
a
pool
hall)
and
has
36 of 55 10-03-26 4:51 AM
spent
a
lot
of
time
in
Asia.
Had
a
few
conversations
with
him.
Gave
me
a
few
pieces
of
advice,
it's
true
they
will
never
accept
me
as
one
of
them.
Though
he
said
it
never
hurt
him
working
in
Asia,
and
spent
a
long
time
in
Japan
before
getting
hooked
up
with
the
UN.
His
main
37 of 55 10-03-26 4:51 AM
advice
is,
respect
their
culture,
don't
speak
ill
of
anyone
(particularly
their
gov)
and
do
not
get
involved
in
their
internal
affairs.
Basically
keep
my
head
down
and
they
will
treat
me
alright.
He
liked
Singapore
a
lot
and
it's
on
my
list
of
places
I'm
looking
at,
love
the
fact
they
speak
English
and
there
38 of 55 10-03-26 4:51 AM
is
work
there.
If
I
end
up
going
to
Asia
this
summer
I
will
be
stopping
in
Singapore
to
at
least
check
it
out.
My
dad's
friend
said
he
could
also
hook
me
up
with
a
few
people
he
knows
on
that
side
of
the
world
if
I
do
end
up
that
way.
And
yes
learning
Mandarin
39 of 55 10-03-26 4:51 AM
is
the
most
difficult
thing
I
have
ever
studied.
People
who
have
been
honest
with
me
tell
me
that
it
will
be
YEARS
before
I'm
any
good
at
it
unless
I'm
completely
submerged
in
it
and
even
then
it
will
take
a
long
time.
For
a
blue
collar
kid
I
have
a
lot
of
educational
depth,
40 of 55 10-03-26 4:51 AM
including
get
an
advanced
degree
right
now.
Also
I
lucked
out
that
I
found
work
in
software
development,
and
like
doing
it.
From
what
I
can
see
there
is
a
worldwide
shortage
of
skilled
programmers.
Sure
there
is
a
lot
of
guys
from
India,
but
not
to
be
mean
most
of
the
work
I
have
seen
from
41 of 55 10-03-26 4:51 AM
there
is
simply
terrible.
America
still
has
the
best
programmers
in
the
world.
Login
or
register
to
post
comments
by
Well,
on
good
Fri,
luck
03/26/2010
amigo!
-
It
01:00
looks
#276600
like
you
are
doing
your
homework.
Very
good.
If
you
are
better
than
India's
wannabe
programmers,
then
that
is
an
added
plus.
But,
don't
eliminate
the
42 of 55 10-03-26 4:51 AM
USA
too
quickly!
After
every
trip
of
3
weeks
overseas,
I
am ALWAYS
glad
to
be
back
home,
what
with
English,
familiar
food,
my
extended
family,
etc.
Of
course
I
am
54
yrs.
old.
Go
have
fun
and
education
checking
those
places
out!
Take
your
time...
There
is
a
whole
world
to
choose
from.
Login
or
register
43 of 55 10-03-26 4:51 AM
to
post
comments
by
Gwynplaine
on Thu, haven't
Shameful,
03/25/2010 -
you noticed the
17:06
condition of paper
#276186
money recently?
You can't even get
new, crisp bills from
the bank. (Oh,
except for dollar
bills). The
condition of 50s,
20s, and 10s is
atrocious. This
stuff should have
been burned and
reprinted.
The question is:

why hasn't it been
reprinted?
My guess is that by
2020 cash will be a
thing of the past. I
remember reading
somewhere that
cash transactions of
over 2 or 3
thousand euros are
no longer
considered legal in
Greece. Ireland is
also looking to
phase out cash.
How else do you
think they can curb
the inevitable tidal
wave of tax evasion?
post comments
by
Shameful
on Thu,
Have to agree.
03/25/2010
Though not -
17:21
sure on 2020.
#276206
Could happen
sooner with a
44 of 55 10-03-26 4:51 AM
currency crisis.
After all if the
dollar explodes
they will need
new money,
and would be a
great time to
phase in all
digital money. I
have a small
supply of cash
and it's not in
the best shape.
The new 5's I
got last night
look like they
have already
taken a beating.
Cash is
anathema to
the taxing and
control grid.
Once they can
move to digital
money they will
remove the
ability to evade
taxes with
under the
counter
transactions
(baring direct
barter). As a
side bennie for
the master
class pure
digital money
will make
devaluing a
snap. A little
work with a 10
key pad and
add endless
liquidity. And if
the numbers
get to big just
kick a digit off
every one's
account, easy
as a key stroke.
Login or register
to post comments
by Problem
Is
45 of 55 10-03-26 4:51 AM
on Thu,
03/25/2010 - to
" they are trying
17:26
kill cash
#276215
transactions"
A Fed VAT would go

along way to
steering into a no
cash debit/credit
only system.
Once the total sales

tax between city,
county, state and
Fed become
prohibitive... then
that will increase
the incentive for
higher black market
evasion of
oppressive sales tax
rates.
The sheeple will

reduce demand for
corporate crap, start
buying food local
and repair and
recycle goods
instead of more
Walmart and
Amazon.
Gold, Silver Blanks

and Local Scrip
Watch things like

silver blanks to start
circulating amongst
the sheeple.
The Feds can't stop

the underground
economy of 50
million people
selling and
consuming small
amounts of pot.
They can't quash
VAT avoidance
tranactions either.
The EU has tried
and failed.
post comments
by
46 of 55 10-03-26 4:51 AM
+1 Thu,
on
03/25/2010 -
Peru
19:17has a kind
of VAT. Lots of
#276332
people finds
ways around it.
Login or register
to post comments
by
Yardfarmer
on Thu,
And with Americas
03/25/2010 -
new healthcare law
23:57
President Obama’s
#276567
enemies are nearly
the entire
population of the
United States, and
which he is
preparing to meet
and subdue with his
adding into this law
a call for over
16,000 new IRS
agents (added to
the over 100,000 he
already has at his
service) who will
soon be matched
with the formidable
weapons his
government has
already
purchased for them
with his taxpayers
own money.
[Note: The weapons

purchased by
Obama this past
February for his new
tax police forces are
described by the
TFB website as
follows:
“By now you have

probably heard
about the news that
the IRS is buying
Remington 870
shotguns. Why? Who
knows. I have never
heard of a
47 of 55 10-03-26 4:51 AM
government tax
collection agency
arming themselves.
Regardless of the
social issues
associated with
arming tax
collectors, you must
give those
accountants some
credit: they know
how to choose a
decent gun. The IRS
Shotgun (as it shall
know be known on
TFB) is pimped-out
14" short barreled
Remington 870. It is
similar to the
Remington MCS
Tactical Entry/CQB
Shotgun.
When cutting down

the barrel length of
a shotgun, or tube
magazine fed rifle,
you lose magazine
capacity as you
shorten it. The 14"
length is a good
compromise length
and in an 870 can
accommodate 5+1
capacity.
The IRS Shotty

specifications also
calls for a Wilson
Combat Ghost Ring
rear sight, XS4
Contour Bead front
sight, Knoxx
Reduced Recoil
Adjustable Stock
and and Speedfeed
ribbed black
forend.”]
post comments
by
divide_by_zero
on Thu,
03/25/2010 - 16:49
I remember back in the
#276163
70s before the Reagan
48 of 55 10-03-26 4:51 AM
tax cuts much of the

economy was based on
bartering(organized
barter clubs etc to
organize services/goods
to be traded), it got so
bad the IRS was trying
to tax it as soon as
people started using
barter "credits", too
much like money. With
the move back towards
confiscatory tax rates,
the economy will go
back to that again, tax
receipts will plummet.
It'll likely be easier to
organize with the
internet now, maybe
even an app for that.

comments
by Mercury
on Thu,
03/25/2010 -
17:42
I'd like to learn
#276237
more about this
particlar bit of
history. I was just
wondering over on
another post
whether new
technology would
be a net advantage
to government or
private citizens in
this regard.
I suppose your
upcoming national
ID card NEVER also
become your
required national
debit card.
post comments
by
Calculated_Risk
My Thu,
on mother keeps
03/25/2010
talking about -
how
20:44
wide spread under
#276404
49 of 55 10-03-26 4:51 AM
the table work was

in the 70's. She said
everyone was
working off the
books. Uncle
bernanke
mentioned a few
months ago he was
worried about
people dropping out
of thebanking
system... I'm
working on the
app... Actually a
re-write.
www.blackmarketdata.com
I wrote it a few
years ago.. Got
burned out on it
though.
post comments
by
overmedicatedun...
on Thu,
03/25/2010 - 16:20
Re: the Greece money
#276128
gambit: this from
bloomberg:
"Mark Schofield, head of

fi xed-income strategy at
Citigroup Global Markets
Ltd. in London. “There’s a
structural desire to
stabilize the fiscal
environment.”
Mark just says it all in one

sentence..applies
in EU & to good ol USA..
debt bitches

comments
by non-anon
on Thu,
03/25/2010 -
18:18
Where's the tax revolt?
#276269
50 of 55 10-03-26 4:51 AM

comments
by frippy
on Thu,
03/25/2010 -
19:07
Capital Controls: they're not
#276321
just for breakfast anymore.

comments
by Attitude_Check
on Thu,
03/25/2010 -
19:11
Increasing Taxes -- Now
#276324
that will stimulate the
economy!! We should do it
at the same time as QE 2.0,
and use the taxes to finance
it. Bring on DEFLATION.
That way we can directly

transfer money from
producers to the parasites!!
What a brilliant idea -- if

you're a bankster.
Beware the misdirection

though, this IS GOLDMAN
after all. I predict that the $
will tank instead of rise. Of
course equities may tank
also!

comments
by twotraps
on Thu,
03/25/2010 -
20:15
Pathetic. The whole
#276373
economic show.
With the mkt up, except

for that lovely close
today...the govt thinks
they can just keep going
to the well for tax cash,
no other adjustments
need to be made...cut
51 of 55 10-03-26 4:51 AM
nothing, add everything,

go to the well....Repeat.
The US is squandering
its advantage by treating
the near universal use of
the dollar as something
that Cannot change.
Fools. The govt is
broke, the states are
broke and way too much
time and money is spent
lobbying for some
incre-freakin'-mental
wording change to
obscure accounting
language so the banks
can survive. Love it.
Maybe we are ready for

that outside event...that
apparently harmless
thing that begins some
chain of events that
kicks off some limit
days, lots of confusion
and gets the mkts going
again. They could get
goin higher, but the
tougher trade is
down.....if we begin a
grind lower, a major
re-pricing, boomer cash
takes another hit, and
everyone puts their
hands in their pockets.
At that point, you may
get some public outcry
over taxes etc.;

comments
by Mercury
on Thu,
03/25/2010 -
19:59
O'Reilly is hardly my favorite
#276356
member of the fourth estate
(he too often fails to hit
more than a single on
softballs and he's given
Obama the benefit of the
doubt way too many times at
this point) but check out this
bit of theatre where he tries
to get a congressman to
admit that the IRS will be
52 of 55 10-03-26 4:51 AM
enforcing health insurance

compliance:
http://www.youtube.com
/watch?v=3O6Jk7icfMw&
feature=player_embedded

comments
by Neophiliac
on Thu,
03/25/2010 -
21:14
Get some perspective
#276434
people. This is neither
unpecedented nor as bad as
it gets. Even under Clinton
taxes were higher overall,
and the earth didn't cave in
the 1990s. If memory
serves, that decade was
actually pretty spectacular
compared to the naughts.
Current income tax rates,

even after they are
combined with Medicare and
Social Sec. taxes are very,
very low by 20th century
measures. There is much
more room for increases
when fiscal push comes to
deficit shove.

comments
by bigkahuna
on Thu,
03/25/2010 -
23:31
I bet this decade won't
#276551
be as good as the
ninetys. Anyone want in?

comments
by rawsienna
on Thu,
03/25/2010 -
21:31
We are f**ked. Plain and
#276446
simple. Obama is Hugo
Chavez light.
53 of 55 10-03-26 4:51 AM

comments
by the grateful un...

on Thu,
03/25/2010 -
23:14
#276539
A second
possible
counterintuitive
effect is the
significant
difference in
fi scal multipliers
in a zero
interest rate
environment. A
recent paper
from the New
York Fed
explores the
possibility that
tax cuts on
capital and labor
could actually
have a negative
near term effect
on demand
when rates are
at zero, by
encouraging
additional
saving and
reducing wage
pressure with
the eventual
effect of higher
real interest
rates
Wow, do you suppose that

someone out there is
developing the anti-Laffer
curve? That taxes actually
help spending, (increse
demand) and that if raising
taxes increases wealth, we
should continue raising
taxes, (and after all lowering
taxes only works until you
get to zero, but raising
taxes, those trees grow to
the sky!!) Laffer is dead, long
live Laffer!
54 of 55 10-03-26 4:51 AM

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Here Come Higher Taxes: Goldman On Imminent Tax Increases ... http://www.zerohedge.com/article/here-come-higher-taxes-gol...

Polls Here Come Higher Search this site:

Bank of New York Budget

enacted corporate tax purchase total EUR 43.469bln

possibility of some form of overnight loan facility, EUR 207.308bln deposited

Coyote Blog This may reduce the

Global Economic Analysis policy. First, it included a Mailbox copyright

in health industry Drupal e-commerce provided by Ubercart.

industry has become

There are too many

Higher vs. lower

Effective Federal Tax

Labor vs. capital

such a tax and the

health reform package

The tax changes noted

The short term effect of

spend a portion of cash

A more intuitive result is

there are clearly other

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This is where the

and more middle class jobs

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I have no idea what the

The Federal government

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"someday" even if actually

In an informal race you claim

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Anybody wanna bet the

Once the money starts

This is getting serious,

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Buying, holding and

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Taxpayer is going to get

But never mind, just buy

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It's like you're in a horse

race riding a fukcing cow.

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1. YES, because we can

2. YOU are part of this

3. GIVE, and you will receive

4. MONEY, doesn't make you

6. US, land of the brave

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Unless you take your State

Restructuring of your State

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Translation: Fed, we need

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