Structural reliability and risk analysis

Structural Reliability and Risk Analysis – Lecture Notes

1

Technical University of Civil Engineering of Bucharest

Reinforced Concrete Department

STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ANALYSIS

Lecture notes

Radu V

Ă

C

Ă

REANUAlexandru ALDEADan LUNGU

2007

Structural Reliability and Risk Analysis – Lecture Notes

2

Foreword

The lectures on

Structural Reliability and Risk Analysis

at the Technical University of CivilEngineering of Bucharest commenced in early 1970’s as an elective course taught by lateProfessor Dan Ghiocel and by Professor Dan Lungu in the Buildings Department. After 1990the course became a compulsory one in the Reinforced Concrete Department and it is taught both in the Faculty of Civil, Industrial and Agricultural Buildings and in the Faculty of Engineering in Foreign Languages of Technical University of Civil Engineering of Bucharest.The course is envisaged as to provide the background knowledge for the understanding andimplementation of the new generation of Romanian structural codes that follow the structural

Eurocodes

concepts and formats. Also, the lectures on

Structural Reliability and Risk Analysis

provide the required information to understand and apply the concepts andapproaches of the performance based design of buildings and structures.Uncertainties are omnipresent in structural engineering. Civil engineering structures are to bedesigned for loads due to environmental actions like earthquakes, snow and wind. Theseactions are exceptionally uncertain in their manifestations and their occurrence and magnitudecannot be treated deterministically. Materials used in civil engineering constructions alsodisplay wide scatter in their mechanical properties. Structural engineering activities, on onehand, lead to increase in societal wealth, and, on the other hand, these activities also makesociety vulnerable to risks. A structural engineer is accountable for the decisions that he takes.A hallmark of professionalism is to quantify the risks and benefits involved. The subject of structural reliability offers a rational framework to quantify uncertainties mathematically. Thesubject combines statistics, theory of probability, random variables and random processeswith principles of structural mechanics and forms the basis on which modern structural designcodes are developed.Structural reliability has become a discipline of international interest, as it is shown by thesignificant number of books and journals, seminars, symposiums and conferences addressingsolely this issue. The present lecture notes textbook provides an insight into the concepts,methods and procedures of structural reliability and risk analysis considering the presence of random uncertainties. The course is addressed to undergraduate students from Faculty of Engineering in Foreign Languages instructed in English language as well as postgraduatestudents in structural engineering. The objectives of the courses are:-

to provide a review of mathematical tools for quantifying uncertainties using theoriesof probability, random variables and random processes-

to develop the theory of methods of structural reliability based on concept of reliabilityindices. This includes discussions on First Order Reliability Methods-

to explain the basics of code calibration-

to evaluate actions on buildings and structures due to natural hazards-

to provide the basics of risk analysis-

to provide the necessary background to carry out reliability based design and risk- based decision making and to apply the concepts and methods of performance-basedengineering-

to prepare the ground for students to undertake research in this field.The content of the Structural Reliability and Risk Analysis textbook is:-

Introduction to probability and random variables; distributions of probability

Structural Reliability and Risk Analysis – Lecture Notes

3

-

Formulation of reliability concepts for structural components; exact solutions, first-order reliability methods; reliability indices; basis for probabilistic design codes-

Seismic hazard analysis-

Seismic vulnerability and seismic risk analysis-

Introduction to the topic of time-variant reliability and random processes; properties of random processes-

Dynamic stochastic response of single degree of freedom systems – applications towind and earthquake engineering.The developments and the results of the

Structural Reliability and Risk Analysis Group

of the

Reinforced Concrete Department

at the

Technical University of Civil Engineering of Bucharest

are included in important national structural codes, such as:-

P100-1/2006 -

Cod de proiectare seismic

ă

- Partea I - Prevederi de proiectare pentrucl

ă

diri

, 2007 (Code for Earthquake Resistant Design of New Buildings)-

CR0-2005

-

Cod de proiectare. Bazele proiectarii structurilor in constructii

, 2005(Design Code. Basis of Structural Design)-

CR1-1-3-2005 -

Cod de proiectare. Evaluarea actiunii zapezii asupra constructiilor

,2005 (Design Code. Snow Loads on Buildings and Structures)-

NP 082-04 -

Cod de proiectare. Bazele proiect

ă

rii

ş

i ac

ţ

iuni asupra construc

ţ

iilor. Ac

ţ

iunea vântului

, 2005 (Design Code. Basis of Design and Loads on Buildings andStructures. Wind Loads)The

UTCB

Structural Reliability and Risk Analysis Group

embarked in the national effortstowards seismic risk mitigation through the implementation of national and international projects in this field as well as through the organization of international conferences devotedto this aim.

First International Workshop on Vrancea Earthquakes

, Bucharest, Nov. 1-4, 1997

JICA International Seminar

, Bucharest, Nov. 23-24, 2000