IAP STATEMENT ON OCEAN ACIDIFICATION

Headline messages

•OceansplayacriticalroleintheglobalcarboncyclebyabsorbingaboutaquarterotheCO

emittedtotheatmosphereromhumanactivities;•TherapidincreaseinCO

emissionssincetheindustrialrevolutionhasincreasedtheacidityotheworld’soceanswithpotentiallyprooundconsequencesormarineplantsandanimalsespeciallythosethatrequirecalciumcarbonatetogrowandsurvive,andotherspeciesthatrelyontheseorood;•Atcurrentemissionratesmodelssuggestthatallcoralreesandpolarecosystemswillbeseverelyaectedby2050orpotentiallyevenearlier;•Marineoodsuppliesarelikelytobereducedwithsignifcantimplicationsoroodproductionandsecurityinregionsdependentonfshprotein,andhumanhealthandwellbeing;•Oceanacidifcationisirreversibleontimescalesoatleasttensothousandsoyears;•EvenwithstabilisationoatmosphericCO

at450ppm,oceanacidifcationwillhaveprooundimpactsonmanymarinesystems.LargeandrapidreductionsoglobalCO

emissionsareneededgloballybyatleast50%by2050.

1. CO

and ocean chemistry

Overthepast200years,theoceanshaveabsorbedapproximatelyaquarterotheCO

producedromhumanactivities.ThisCO

wouldotherwisehaveaccumulatedintheatmosphereleadingtogreaterclimatechange.However,theabsorptionothisCO

hasaectedoceanchemistryandhascausedtheoceans(whichareonaverageslightlyalkaline)tobecomemoreacidic.TheaveragepHooceanicsuracewatershasbeenloweredby0.1unitssincethepre-industrialperiod.Thisrepresentsa30%increaseinhydrogenionactivity.Hydrogenionsattackcarbonateionswhicharethebuildingblocksneededbymanymarineorganisms,suchascoralsandshellfsh,toproducetheirskeletons,shellsandotherhardstructures.Thislossocarbonateionsproducelowersaturationlevelsorthecarbonateminerals,aragoniteandcalcite,whichareusedinmanyshellsandskeletons.Carbonateionconcentrationsarenowlowerthanatanyothertimeduringthelast800000years.GlobalatmosphericCO

concentrationsarenowat387ppm.IcurrenttrendsinCO

emissionscontinue,modelprojectionssuggestthatbymid-centuryCO

concentrationswillbemorethandoublepre-industriallevelsandtheoceanswillbemoreacidicthantheyhavebeenortensomillionsoyears.Thecurrentrateochangeismuchmorerapidthanduringanyeventoverthelast65millionyears.Thesechangesinoceanchemistryareirreversibleormanythousandsoyears,andthebiologicalconsequencescouldlastmuchlonger.

2. Environmental damage rom ocean acidifcation

Oceanacidifcationimpactsonmarineliewilldependontherateandmagnitudeochangesinoceanchemistryandbiologicalresponses.Whiletheoceanchemistrychangesarepredictablewithhighcertainty,ourunderstandingotheimpactsisstilldeveloping.Nevertheless,thereisstrongevidenceemergingorarangeobiologicaleectsandchangesinthemarinebiogeochemicalprocessesthataectthecarboncycle.Thelong-termconsequencesothisaredifculttopredict.Impactsarealreadybeingobservedinthepolarandtropicalregions.Coralcalcifcationrateshavedeclinedinrecentdecades,althoughattributingcausesortheseimpactsamongmultipledrivers(acidifcation,warming,pollution,etc.)isachallenge.FundamentalecologicaloceanprocesseswillbeaectedasmanymarineorganismsdependdirectlyorindirectlyoncalciumcarbonatesaturatedwatersandareadaptedtocurrentlevelsoseawaterpHorphysiologicalandmetabolicprocessessuchascalcifcation,growthandreproduction.ThepHchangesexpectedwillexceedtheseasonalandregionalvariationscurrentlyexperiencednaturally.

June2009

Oceanacidifcationisaglobalissue.However,changesinoceanchemistrywillberegionallyvariablewithsomeregionsaectedmorerapidlythanothers.ThehighCO

watersinpolarandupwellingregionssuchastheeasternPacifcandBeringSeaorexample,willexperiencelowpHmorerapidlythanotherregions.Tropicalwaters,suchasthosearoundtheGreatBarrierReewillalsoexperiencerapiddeclinesinthecarbonateionsimportantorcoralreeconstruction.Accordingtorecentmodelprojectionsalmostalltropicalandsub-tropicalcoralreesweresurroundedbywatersavourabletocoralgrowthbeoretheindustrialrevolution.IatmosphericCO

isstabilizedat450ppm,onlyaverysmallraction(~8%)oexistingtropicalandsubtropicalcoralreeswillbesurroundedbysuchwater,andat550ppm,coralreesmaybedissolvingglobally.Coldwatercoralsarealsovulnerableandarelikelytobeaectedbeoretheyhaveevenbeenullyexplored.By2100,ithasbeenestimatedthat70%willbeinwatersunavourableorgrowth.Inthepolarregions,modelprojectionsusingcurrentCO

emissionratessuggestthatpartsotheSouthernOceanwillbeundersaturatedoraragoniteby2050.Aragoniteundersaturationisprojectedor10%oArcticwatersbyaround2020,andby2060,80%owaterswillbeundersaturatedoraragoniteandcalcite.ThismeansthewaterswillbecorrosivetoArcticcalciferssuchaspteropods,andbivalvessuchasclams,whichplayakeyroleinArcticoodwebs.Theoceanchemistrychangesprojectedwillexceedtherangeonaturalvariability,whichislikelytobetoorapidormanyspeciestoadaptto.Manycoastalanimalsandgroupsophytoplanktonandzooplanktonmaybedirectlyaectedwithimplicationsorfsh,marinemammalsandtheothergroupsthatdependonthemorood.IncreasedCO

maybeparticularlystressulororganismswithhighmetabolicratessuchassquid.Theimpactsothesechangesonoceanicecosystemsandtheservicestheyprovide,orexampleinfsheries,coastalprotection,tourism,carbonsequestrationandclimateregulation,cannotyetbeestimatedaccuratelybuttheyarepotentiallylarge.Althoughsomespeciesmaybeneft,mostareadaptedtocurrentconditionsandtheimpactsonoceanbiologicaldiversityandecosystemunctioningwilllikelybesevere.AnalysisopasteventsinEarth’sgeologichistorysuggeststhatchemicalrecoverywilltaketensothousandsoyears–whiletherecoveryoecosystemunctionandbiologicaldiversitycantakemuchlonger.

4. Mitigation

Oceanacidifcationisirreversibleduringourlietimesandthoseomanygenerationstocome.Tominimisetheriskotheselarge-scaleandlong-termchangestotheoceanstheincreaseinatmosphericCO

mustbecurbedbyreducingemissionsromhumanactivities.RecentscenariostudieshaveestimatedthatstabilisationoatmosphericCO

concentrationsat550ppmwillproduceenoughacidifcationtobedisastrousorsensitiveoceanicecosystemsinmanypartsotheworld.Evenat450ppm,morethan10%otheworld’soceanswillbeimpactedincludinglargepartsotheSouthern,NorthPacifc,andArcticoceans.Mitigationapproachessuchasaddingchemicalstocountertheeectsoacidifcationarelikelytobeexpensive,onlypartlyeectiveandonlyataverylocalscale,andmayposeadditionalunanticipatedriskstothemarineenvironment.Therehasbeenverylittleresearchontheeasibilityandimpactsotheseapproaches.Substantialresearchisneededbeorethesetechniquescouldbeapplied.

5. Conclusions and recommendations

OceanacidifcationisadirectconsequenceoincreasingatmosphericCO

concentrations.Toavoidsubstantialdamagetooceanecosystems,deepandrapidreductionsoglobalCO

emissionsbyatleast50%by2050,andmuchmorethereaterareneeded.We,theacademiesoscienceworkingthroughtheInterAcademyPanelonInternationalIssues(IAP),callonworldleadersto:•AcknowledgethatoceanacidifcationisadirectandrealconsequenceoincreasingatmosphericCO

concentrations,isalreadyhavinganeectatcurrentconcentrations,andislikelytocausegraveharmtoimportantmarineecosystemsasCO

concentrationsreach450ppmandabove;•RecognisethatreducingthebuildupoCO

intheatmosphereistheonlypracticablesolutiontomitigatingoceanacidifcation;•WithinthecontextotheUNFCCCnegotiationsintherunuptoCopenhagen2009,recognisethedirectthreatsposedbyincreasingatmosphericCO

emissionstotheoceansandthereoresociety,andtakeactiontomitigatethisthreat;•ImplementactiontoreduceglobalCO

emissionsbyatleast50%o1990levelsby2050andcontinuetoreducethemthereater;•Reinvigorateactiontoreducestressors,suchasoverfshingandpollution,onmarineecosystemstoincreaseresiliencetooceanacidifcation.Theollowingacademieshaveendorsedthisstatement.