Professional Documents
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21 July 2010
R e su l ts / B ri e f i ng N o t e
21 July 2010
MARKET DATELINE
expansion was mainly underpinned by +3.7% qoq loan growth (see Table Major Shareholders: (%)
Tan Sri Dato' Sri Dr Teh 23.7
5) and a slight expansion in NIMs. Non-interest income was also stronger Hong Piow
(+3.7% qoq due to stronger transactional fee income), partly offset by
EPF 14.4
higher impairment on loans (+25% qoq). YoY, 2Q net profit jumped 20.2%
underpinned by stonger net interest (+16.6% yoy) and non-interest income FYE Dec FY10 FY11 FY12
(+9.1% yoy), while impairment allowances for loans was broadly stable. EPS chg (%) - - -
These, however, were partly offset by higher overheads (+13% yoy). Var to Cons (%) (1.1) (2.9) (6.9)
♦ Operating statistics highlights. Annualised loan growth stood at 14.6% PE Band Chart
and is well is on track to achieve our FY10 growth assumption of 14% as
well as management’s targeted 15% growth. This was led by the domestic PER = 17x
PER = 13x
segment (annualised rate of 16.8%) with growth momentum for the SME, PER = 9x
mortgage and HP loan segments sustained. Overseas loan book contracted
by an annualised rate of 6.4% mainly due to adverse exchange rate impact.
NIM expanded by 13bps qoq (+17bps yoy) following the two rounds of OPR
hikes in Mar and May. Meanwhile, non-interest income stayed healthy as its
mutual fund operations benefited from stronger equity markets and better
Relative Performance To FBM KLCI
contribution from the foreign exchange business. CIR improved further to
33.6% (1Q10: 35.8%; 2Q09: 34.1%).
♦ Asset quality intact. Asset quality remains largely intact and superior to
peers (see Tables 4 and 6). Gross impaired loans ratio remained largely FBM KLCI
stable qoq at 1.2%. Capital ratios also improved qoq (see Table 4).
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Briefing Highlights
♦ FY10 outlook. With an annualised loan growth of 14.6%, management kept their 15% loan growth target for
FY10 unchanged. 1H loan approvals were up 10% yoy (HP: +22.5% yoy; mortgage: +12.8% yoy; SME: +8.7%
yoy), which should hold the group in group stead heading into 2H. According to management, the loan approval
pipeline remains relatively healthy thus far and management thinks loans such as mortages are unlikely to be
impacted by the expected slowdown in 2H.
As for NIMs, 2Q10 saw the positive impact from the OPR hikes in Mar and May and together with the Jul rate
increase, these should help cushion pricing pressures. We understand that the source of the price pressures has
been from deposits (especially for short term, large deposits, partially reflecting expectations of another 25bps
hike later this year) rather than loans, where pricing discipline within the HP and mortgage segments were
maintained. Overall, management was cautiously optimistic that there was still room for NIMs to improve ahead.
As for the pipeline for mutual fund launches in 2H, while another 5 to 6 new funds are slated to be launched in
2H10, actual launch would depend on equity market conditions.
2Q interim dividend was lower yoy and translates to a payout ratio of 46.3%. Nevertheless, management said
that full-year cash dividend would not be lower than FY09’s gross DPS of 55 sen and retained their dividend
payout guidance of 50-55%. Our FY10-12 gross DPS projections of 60-70 sen p.a. implies a payout ratio of 53.5-
55%, i.e. at the upper end of management’s guided range.
♦ FRS139. Due to the transitional arrangement as prescribed in BNM’s guidelines, Public Bank’s collective
impairment allowance ratio stood at 1.5% as at 30 Jun 2010. This is in excess of the 75-77bps collective
impairment allowance required if strictly following FRS139 and suggests excess collective impairment allowance
of around RM1bn. In order to write back this excess allowance, BNM’s approval is required. At this stage,
management has yet to decide whether to pursue the matter further. Assuming the excess impairment allowance
is written back to retained earnings, we estimate this could add around 8% to FY10 shareholders’ equity and
around 70bps to Tier-1 capital ratio (to 11%).
♦ Overseas operations. In terms of loan growth, the Hong Kong operations reported mid-high single digit loan
growth (local currency terms) while Cambodia’s loan book was flat yoy. The slowdown in loan growth in
Cambodia was mainly due to the need to rebalance the liability side of the business (i.e. deposit growth) following
the strong loan growth in the past. For example, as at end-2008, the loan/deposit ratio had reached a high of
160% but this has since fallen to the mid-80s currently. Having resolved that, loan growth momentum is
expected to pick up again next year.
♦ Potential impact from Basel III. Assuming: 1) minimum core equity capital ratio of 8%; 2) 15% annual loan
growth; and 3) annual dividend payout ratio of 50-55%, management estimates Public Bank could require around
RM3-3.5bn in additional capital (7-8% of current market capitalisation), but this is unlikely to occur in the near
term. Although management thinks there is a strong likelihood Basel III would be implemented in its current form
rather than a watered-down version, in mitigation, management believes this would require a longer time period
for full implementation (around 5-10 years) and this could help the group beef up its capital base.
Risks
♦ Risks to our view. The risks include: 1) slower-than-expected loan growth; 2) deterioration in asset quality; and
3) changes in market conditions that may adversely affect investment portfolios.
♦ Mitigating factors. The mitigating factors are: 1) strong franchise in SME and consumer segments; 2) asset
quality is the best, thus, ample room to cushion potential rise in NPLs if economic growth slows significantly; and
3) strong contribution from unit trust to cushion volatility in capital market income.
Forecasts
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♦ Outperform call reiterated. We have retained our fair value of RM13.75 (based on target FY11 PER of 15x) and
Outperform call on the stock. We continue to like the stock for its above-industry growth and asset quality. This,
in our view, would be further supported by the stock’s (relatively) low foreign shareholding level, high weightage
in the FBM KLCI and a premium valuation gap that has narrowed vis-à-vis peers. Public Bank, in our view, is the
best proxy to the domestic economic recovery in terms of loan growth.
Non-interest Income 366.0 385.1 399.4 3.7 9.1 Stronger qoq largely due to higher fee and other income
while yoy growth was led by higher unit trust management
fees of RM116.6m (2Q09: RM86.3m) and higher forex profit
of RM65.9m (2Q09: RM47.4m).
Less: Overhead (515.9) (590.1) (583.1) (1.2) 13.0 Higher yoy mainly due to higher personnel cost (+16.3%
Expenses yoy) due to business expansion and to grow loan base (e.g.
increase in bancassurance personnel).
Less: Allowance for (180.3) (139.8) (174.7) 25.0 (3.1) Higher qoq due to:
impairment on loans 1. higher individual assessment allowance of RM85.9m
(+ impairment (vs. 1Q10: RM55.5m) due to absence of certain one-
write-backs) off recovery (in 1Q10) and higher credit charges
incurred in the Cambodia operations; and
2. Higher collective assessment allowance of RM135.1m
(1Q10: RM126.8m) due to continued loan growth.
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Non-interest Income 658.4 784.6 19.2 Led by higher unit trust management fees (RM231.4m vs. 1HFY09:
RM157.2m), dividend income (RM53.7m vs. 1HFY09: RM29.6m) and forex
profit (RM126.6m vs. 1HFY09: RM87.6m), partly offset by lower gain from
sale of available-for-sale securities (RM1.9m vs. 1HFY09: RM37.5m).
Operating Income 2,909.8 3,387.1 16.4
Less: Overhead (1,013.0) (1,173.2) 15.8 Higher operating expenses due to business expansion and to grow loan base.
Expenses
Pre-provision 1,896.8 2,213.9 16.7
Profit
Margins (%)
Yields On Earning Assets 4.59 4.03 3.63 3.63 3.64 3.47 3.72
Avg. Cost of Funds 2.66 2.10 1.67 1.64 1.60 1.48 1.62
Interest Spread 1.93 1.93 1.96 1.99 2.03 2.00 2.09
Net Interest Margins (ex-Islamic Inc) 2.06 2.02 2.02 2.05 2.09 2.05 2.16
Adjusted Net Interest Margins (+ Islamic Inc) 2.42 2.33 2.36 2.40 2.49 2.40 2.53
Profitability (%)
ROE 27.95 24.62 24.51 24.79 25.45 24.5 25.1
ROA 1.38 1.21 1.22 1.24 1.27 1.26 1.34
Cost / Income Ratio 32.75 35.61 34.08 34.21 34.35 35.8 33.6
Expenses / Avg. Assets 0.97 1.01 1.02 1.04 1.05 1.08 1.06
Provisions / Avg. Net Loans 0.51 0.52 0.58 0.55 0.53 0.41 0.49
Liquidity (%)
Loan Deposit Ratio 78.31 73.40 73.25 71.94 79.19 79.8 83.2
Net Loan Growth (qoq) 2.12 4.10 2.99 3.25 3.02 3.5 3.7
Deposit Growth (qoq) -2.97 11.21 3.36 5.11 -6.45 2.8 (0.6)
*Adoption of FRS139 from 1 Jan 2010.
Source: Company, RHBRI
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Total Gross Loan Base 129,378 133,578 137,610 142,428 147,641 3.7 14.1
Source: Company, RHBRI
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Net Interest Income 4,728.0 5,218.0 5,679.0 6,122.7 Asset Quality (%)
(+ Islamic Banking) Gross NPL 0.91 0.86 0.81
Non-interest Income 1,381.9 1,483.8 1,571.3 1,663.9 Net NPL 0.76 0.71 0.66
Operating Income 6,109.9 6,701.9 7,250.3 7,786.6 SP / NPL 17.00 18.00 19.00
GP / Net Loans 1.49 1.49 1.49
Less: Overhead Loan Loss Coverage 181.02 191.57 203.30
Expenses -2,109.9 -2,236.5 -2,379.1 -2,532.6 Core Capital Ratio 10.18 10.25 10.33
Pre-provision RWCAR 14.31 14.32 14.33
Profit 4,000.0 4,465.3 4,871.2 5,254.0
Margins (%)
Less: Allowance for Yields On Earnings Assets 3.68 3.66 3.64
impairment on loans -691.0 -681.6 -633.3 -657.2 Avg. Cost Of Funds 1.74 1.75 1.76
Operating Profit 3,309.0 3,783.7 4,237.9 4,596.8 Interest Spread 1.94 1.91 1.88
Un-adj NIM (ex-Islamic Inc) 2.01 1.99 1.96
Associates 12.4 12.8 13.2 13.6 Adjusted NIM (+Islamic Inc) 2.36 2.35 2.34
Pretax Profit 3,321.4 3,796.5 4,251.1 4,610.4
Profitability (%)
Less: Tax -769.9 -873.2 -977.8 -1,060.4 ROE 24.18 23.79 23.00
ETR (%) 23.2 23.0 23.0 23.0 ROA 1.26 1.29 1.29
Cost / Income Ratio 33.37 32.81 32.52
Profit After Tax 2,551.5 2,923.3 3,273.4 3,550.0 Expenses / Avg. Assets 0.98 0.96 0.94
Provisions / Avg. Net Loans 0.47 0.39 0.37
Minorities -34.2 -51.4 -61.6 -74.0
Net Profit 2,517.3 2,872.0 3,211.7 3,476.0 Liquidity (%)
Loan Deposit Ratio 82.08 83.60 85.15
Net / Gross Loan Growth 14.00 10.00 10.00
Deposit Growth 10.00 8.00 8.00
Source: RHBRI estimates
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
This report has been prepared by RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd (RHBRI) and is for private circulation only to clients of RHBRI and RHB Investment Bank Berhad
(previously known as RHB Sakura Merchant Bankers Berhad). It is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. The
opinions and information contained herein are based on generally available data believed to be reliable and are subject to change without notice, and may differ or
be contrary to opinions expressed by other business units within the RHB Group as a result of using different assumptions and criteria. This report is not to be
construed as an offer, invitation or solicitation to buy or sell the securities covered herein. RHBRI does not warrant the accuracy of anything stated herein in any
manner whatsoever and no reliance upon such statement by anyone shall give rise to any claim whatsoever against RHBRI. RHBRI and/or its associated persons
may from time to time have an interest in the securities mentioned by this report.
This report does not provide individually tailored investment advice. It has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives
of persons who receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. RHBRI recommends that investors independently evaluate
particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial adviser. The appropriateness of a particular investment or
strategy will depend on an investor’s individual circumstances and objectives. Neither RHBRI, RHB Group nor any of its affiliates, employees or agents accepts
any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of this report.
RHBRI and the Connected Persons (the “RHB Group”) are engaged in securities trading, securities brokerage, banking and financing activities as well as providing
investment banking and financial advisory services. In the ordinary course of its trading, brokerage, banking and financing activities, any member of the RHB
Group may at any time hold positions, and may trade or otherwise effect transactions, for its own account or the accounts of customers, in debt or equity
securities or loans of any company that may be involved in this transaction.
“Connected Persons” means any holding company of RHBRI, the subsidiaries and subsidiary undertaking of such a holding company and the respective directors,
officers, employees and agents of each of them. Investors should assume that the “Connected Persons” are seeking or will seek investment banking or other
services from the companies in which the securities have been discussed/covered by RHBRI in this report or in RHBRI’s previous reports.
This report has been prepared by the research personnel of RHBRI. Facts and views presented in this report have not been reviewed by, and may not reflect
information known to, professionals in other business areas of the “Connected Persons,” including investment banking personnel.
The research analysts, economists or research associates principally responsible for the preparation of this research report have received compensation based
upon various factors, including quality of research, investor client feedback, stock picking, competitive factors and firm revenues.
Stock Ratings
Outperform = The stock return is expected to exceed the KLCI benchmark by greater than five percentage points over the next 6-12 months.
Trading Buy = Short-term positive development on the stock that could lead to a re-rating in the share price and translate into an absolute return of 15% or more
over a period of three months, but fundamentals are not strong enough to warrant an Outperform call. It is generally for investors who are willing to take on
higher risks.
Market Perform = The stock return is expected to be in line with the KLCI benchmark (+/- five percentage points) over the next 6-12 months.
Underperform = The stock return is expected to underperform the KLCI benchmark by more than five percentage points over the next 6-12 months.
Industry/Sector Ratings
Overweight = Industry expected to outperform the KLCI benchmark, weighted by market capitalisation, over the next 6-12 months.
Neutral = Industry expected to perform in line with the KLCI benchmark, weighted by market capitalisation, over the next 6-12 months.
Underweight = Industry expected to underperform the KLCI benchmark, weighted by market capitalisation, over the next 6-12 months.
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RHBRI is a participant of the CMDF-Bursa Research Scheme and will receive compensation for the participation. Additional information on recommended
securities, subject to the duties of confidentiality, will be made available upon request.
This report may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without the written permission of RHBRI and RHBRI accepts no liability whatsoever for the
actions of third parties in this respect.
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