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Web 2.

0
Ed Yourdon
email: ed@yourdon.com
Website: www.yourdon.com
Blog: www.yourdonreport.com

version 36

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Publication Details, and
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Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 2


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Topics
1. Introduction
2. Themes
3. History
4. Technology
5. Products, vendors
6. Business Issues
7. Cultural issues
8. Trends
9. Conclusions
10.References
Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 3
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1. Introduction
Definitions: what is Web 2.0?
Web 2.0: profound business,
technological, and social changes
Danger of over-hyping
Lessons to learn from Web 1.0, to plan
for Web 2.0

Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 4


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Definitions
My definition
O’Reilly definitions
YouTube: “the machine is (us)ing us”
viewed 3.4 million times as of 9/18/2007
See John Battelle’s inter view with the author

Pew Report definition


24-minute video documentary definition
Shortcomings of definitions
Differences bet ween Web 1.0 and 2.0(more)
Main business Web 2.0 tools (more)
Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 5
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My definition
Web 2.0 is the combination of:
tools and technologies
business strategies (like blogging, external wikis,
customer participation)
and social trends

which drive the individual creation and


sharing of content on the Internet

Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 6


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O’Reilly definitions

Compact definition
Long definition
Hierarchy of Web 2.0-ness

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Main Web 2.0 tools
Blogs
Wikis
Podcasts
RSS
Collaborative content tagging
Social net working (see IBM’s activities
in this area!)
Mashups
Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 8
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Intro: Business Changes
Empowering employees
• Let them blog - internally & externally
• Let them collaborate with wikis
Encouraging external collaboration
with wikis
Long Tail phenomenon
Product vs. Ser vice (MS Office vs. Google
Docs; Web-based calendars, etc.)
Publishing
(back to main “Intro” page)
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Business change: publishing
Craigslist vs. classified ads
Blogs vs. newspapers
Book mashups
Communal authorship: JESA wiki
Communal product reviews (Amazon)
Communal advertisement/commercials

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Intro: Tech Changes

Perpetual beta
Ajax, Ruby on Rails, and more...
Web as the platform
API’s facilitating mashups

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Tech: web as platform
Google Apps
Virtual Ubiquity
30 Boxes (calendar)
SmartSheet: project management
and more every day...

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Intro: social changes
The public: wired (73%), but not Web 2.0
(8%)
Blogs
Trust in Wikipedia
Emphasis on communities
“People power”
Political commentary
Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 13
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Social change: blogs

Latest count: 71 million blogs, 120K


new blogs every day
Pew sur vey of bloggers
Microblogging: Twitter (at least
100,000 members)

Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 14


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Social change:
trust in Wikipedia
Campaigns Wikia
Essjay controversy
Wikipedia article on UVA massacre
WikiScanner
(more on Wikis, Wikipedia later)

Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 15


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Social change:
emphasis on communities
MySpaceNation
Joe Ford’s congressional campaign
The Mom Net work
Steve Ballmer’s comments on
communities
note to collaborators: please add
additional relevant examples
Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 16
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Social change:
“people power”
Time magazine’s 2006 “person of the
year”: you
Farecast.com
Farecast review

Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 17


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Social change:
political commentary
TechPresident blog
2008: the Web 2.0 election?
Web 2.0 impact on 2006 elections
Obama “1984” mashup
• 3.9 million downloads, creator resigns

• YouTube inter view with video creator

Hilary Clinton on Second Life


George Bush “Sunday, Bloody Sunday” mashup
Saturday Nite Live’s spoof of George Bush on global
warming
Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 18
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Intro: danger of over-hyping
“Old ideas are completely obsolete!”
“This will revolutionize the world!”
“Our Web 2.0 startup will make us rich!”
• The sobering reality of the 80-20 rule

VC’s desperate to invest in the next Google


Startup companies with “vision,” but no revenue model
• New business reality: low startup costs, VC’s not as important as before

• New exit strategy: no IPO, but get acquired by Google

Web 2.0 Bullshit Generator


Reality: people adapt to new things more slowly than
innovators realize
Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 19
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Learn Lessons from Web 1.0
to plan for Web 2.0
Business Plan Archive’s “Top Ten Lessons from the
Dot-Com Meltdown”
“The real learning happens at the intersection of
an industry and a generation”
Expect major shakeouts
Anticipate new competitors
Don’t forget business fundamentals
Beware over-hyping
Five lessons from Financial Times
Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 20
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2. Basic themes of Web 2.0
Web 1.0 vs. Web 2.0
Reputation economy
Architecture of creation vs consumption
Recurring themes
Related concepts
Mashups
Long Tail
Wikis
Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 21
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Web 1.0 vs. Web 2.0
Summary of differences
Web 1.0: mostly static Web pages
Centralized/corporate publishers of content
Single-site content
Some “portals”
But generally no API’s or mashups
Inadequate technology
Slow bandwidth
No Ajax, full-page refresh
Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 22
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Reputation economy
User reviews (e.g., Amazon)
Naymz’s “reputation community”
• Ed’s Naymz inter view

Tag clouds
StumbleUpon
• TechCrunch review of StumbleUpon

Google’s New Orleans Controversy


Wikipedia: covert alterations -> WikiScanner
Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 23
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Tag Clouds
Definition
Flickr tag cloud
Technorati tag cloud
Del.icio.us tag cloud
TagCloud.com
Selecting RSS feeds by tag
Critical article
Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 24
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Architecture of
creation vs. consumption
PC + laser printer made everyone a “publisher”
Now it’s blogs and wikis (state of the blogosphere)
Reasons for “personal publishing”
• Dreams of fame & riches
• Desire to “connect”
• Passion for subject matter
• Ego
• Reputation
• Too much time on their hands (an ongoing trend!)

Next step: “democratizing” innovation (aka “user-


centered innovation”)
(back to “basic themes of Web 2.0”)
Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 25
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Recurring themes for
Web 2.0
Themes from my Aug 2006 visit to Web 2.0
vendors in Silicon Valley (blog posting)
Enterprise 2.0 Building Blocks: SLATES
Empower individual customers, employees,
citizens
(back to “basic themes of Web 2.0”)

Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 26


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Mashups
Definition: blending content from > one source
Examples
Web sites
Tech Beat: Blogs on Mashups
Programmable Web: list of mashups
Wiki for Web Ser vices and Open API’s

Business model for mashups


Tools
Yahoo Pipes
Google’s MyMaps
Note to collaborators: please add more examples of tools for creating mashups
Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 27
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Mashup Examples
Google Maps + CraigsList
Housing Maps for Italy
YouTube.com
Podbop
mapsexoffenders.com
Earth Sandwich
Middle East news + blogs
Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 28
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Long Tail
Basic concept
History
Chris Anderson’s PopTech 2006 PPT slides
Examples
Advice & Recommendations

Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 29


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Long Tail Concepts
Selling more and more to fewer
and fewer
Pareto’s Principle (80-20) less
relevant today
Relationship to Web 2.0
• Shift from the monopoly of the “big hits” favors tiny
publishers and creators of Web content

• Encourages “niche” producers to collaborate with


“aggregators” like Amazon, iTunes, NetFlix, etc.

• Sometimes a niche product can become an unexpected


“blockbuster” through viral marketing, word of mouth

video: “Day of the Long Tail”


Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 30
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Long Tail History
Scarcity favors the 80-20 rule
• Production

• Inventory

• Shelf-space

• Distribution

Bits on the Internet changes the rules


• Production

• Inventory

• Shelf-space

• Distribution

• Search engines: without Google, there would be no Long Tail!

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Long Tail Examples
Amazon (98% of 100,000)
• Tim O’Reilly’s critique of Amazon long-tail stats

iTunes (100% of 5 million)


NetFlix (95% of 55,000 movies)
Lego
Soft ware development
JotSpot Powerpoint presentation
Part 2 of Powerpoint presentation
General info on JotSpot (recently acquired by Google)

Website design
Death of blockbuster drugs
Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 32
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Long Tail Advice
Two imperatives
• Make everything available

• Help me find it

Nine rules
1. Move inventory way in -- or way out
2. Let customers do the work
3. One distribution method doesn’t fit all
4. One product doesn’t fit all
5. One price doesn’t fit all
6. Share information
7. Think “and” not “or” (Coke)
8. Trust the market to do your job
9. Understand the power of the free
Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 33
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Wikis
Concepts
History
Examples
Tools
Benefits
Risks
Implications
Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 34
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Wiki concepts
Rapid iteration of documents, designs,
reports, etc.
Widespread collaboration -- either inside
or outside an organizational boundary
Relationship to Web 2.0?
Relationship to Open Source development?

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Wiki History

Ward Cunningham’s work


Pattern language work, using Hypercard
WikiWikiWeb, 1995

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Examples
List of largest wikis
Wikipedia (more)
Proctor & Gamble “Connect & Develop” (more)
European pharma “dark blog” case study
Eli Lilly “Innocentive” initiative (more)
Social Text
Source Forge (open source)
iStock Photo (more)
My JESA “structured analysis” wiki
Semi-private university wikis
This Web 2.0 Google Docs presentation!
Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 37
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Wikipedia

Har vard Business School case study


2-millionth English-language article
published on 09/12/2007
WikiScanner

Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 38


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Proctor & Gamble
8,000 researchers
600 partners
productivity up 60%
35% of innovations from outside
R&D costs dropped from 4.8% of sales,
down to 3.4% of sales

Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 39


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Eli Lilly Innocentive

30 companies involved
90,000(!) scientists
Rewards up to $100,000

Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 40


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iStock Photo
Sells photos for $1-5, much cheaper than
traditional commercial sources
Pays royalties to amateur photographers
Licensed 10 million images in 2006
Purchased by Getty Images for $50 million
But may be rendered irrelevant by (free) Flickr ...
• My Flickr page, for whatever it’s worth...

... or Photobucket
• acquired by Fox Media in July, 2007

• has 35 million visitors/month

• has 3.636 billion images as of 09/24/2007


Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 41
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Wiki Tools
Twiki (free)
MediaWiki
pbWiki
JotSpot (recently acquired by Google)
• Ed’s report on JotSpot
• JotSpot 2.0

Wikipatterns
Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 42
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Wiki Benefits
New workforce: “crowdsourcing” (“people power”)
Some are happy with modest, part-time income
• Google Answers: $2.50 payments

Hobbyists often happy to work for free


• Time magazine article: “Getting Rich on Those Who Work for Free”
• Flickr, and other sources of artistic/IP contributions
• “raw” resources: grid computing, SETI-at-home
• Yahoo Answers: 10 million free answers

Access “loyal” resources


• Retirees
• Alumni
• Customers

Generate new ideas, products more quickly


Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 43
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Wiki Risks
Security
Privacy
Censorship issues
IP ownership
Control
Anarchy
Credibility of information
• The Essjay Controversy

• David Weinberger’s assessment of Wikipedia credibility

• Wikipedia competitor: Citizendium


Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 44
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Wiki implications
Consider inhouse wiki as a learning
experience
Visit/learn about other successful wiki
initiatives
Consider limited “external”
collaboration wiki as a pilot project
Remember: tools are just enablers;
cultural issues are more important
Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 45
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Web 2.0 History
Pre-History
• Initial rejection of Web 2.0 concepts
• Amazon “long tail” in 1995
• eBay “long tail” in 1995
• WikiWikiWeb in 1995
• Yahoo (various Web 2.0 concepts) in 1996
• Google advertising (long tail), 2000
• Wikipedia in 2001
• iTunes (long tail) in 2001
• Early book with “Web 2.0” title, 2002

Development of enabling technologies


Social/cultural influences
• Clue Train Manifesto
• User-generated content

First Web 2.0 conference in 2004


“Buzz” began in 2005
Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 46
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Web 2.0 Technology
Ajax
Ruby on Rails
API’s
Tools/IDE’s
Other enabling technology
Design guidelines, best practices

Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 47


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Technology - Ajax
Basic concept
Architectural guidelines
Examples
Ajaxifying legacy apps
Ajax-related web sites

Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 48


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Ajax - basic concept
Asynchronous Javascript & XML
Standards-based presentation using XHTML and CSS
Dynamic display and interaction using DOM
Data interchan ge using XML and XSLR
Ansynchronous data retrieval using XML HttpRequest or
XMLHTTP (from Microsoft)
Javascript binding everything together

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Ajax:
architectural guidelines
Small ser ver-side events, no full-page
refresh
Asynchronous activity: users continue
working after invoking a request
“onAnything”: any user event can cause
an asynchronous event

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Ajax: examples
Flickr
Meebo
Nowsy - an Ajax home page
Timeline - Ajax widget for visualizing time-based
events
Microsoft releases beta AJAX
note to collaborators: please add more important
Ajax examples, as appropriate
Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 51
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Ajaxifying legacy apps
“Ajax spurs rebirth for desktop apps,” by
Martin LaMonica, ZDNet News, Dec 1,
2005
Writely -- now Google Docs
Google spreadsheets -- now Google Docs
Many other companies are now doing
this, though it’s not always easy to
provide a cost-benefit justification
Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 52
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Ajax Web sites

Ajax matters
Ajaxian
Ajax magazine
Sites using Ajax

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Technology - Ruby on Rails

Basic concepts
Examples
Websites
Tools, etc.

Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 54


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Ruby on Rails:
basic concepts
Open-source web application framework written in Ruby
Closely follows the Model-View-Controller (MVC) architecture
originally developed for Smalltalk
Strives for simplicity and allowing real-world applications to be
developed in less code (and thus less effort/time) than other
frameworks -- and with a minimum of configuration
Ruby programming language allows for extensive
metaprogramming, which Rails makes great use of
Rails architecture strongly favors database use, and an RDBMS
system is recommended for data storage
Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 55
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Ruby on Rails: examples

Twitter (this isn’t the main Twitter website)


Companies A-M
Companies N-Z

Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 56


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Ruby on Rails:
Websites
RubyOnRails.org
Wiki site
SourceForge
AjaxOnRails

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Ruby on Rails: Tools, etc.

Integration with Visual Studio


note to collaborators: need more
examples of RubyOnRails tools

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Technology - API’s
Google
• Google Maps API
• Google AJAX search API

Yahoo
• Yahoo search API
• Google AJAX search API

AOL
• AIM API’s

Dapper’s API ser vice


note to collaborators: need more examples of
API’s for Web 2.0 development
• what about Amazon, iTunes, eBay, etc.?
Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 59
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Technology: tools/IDE’s
Primary objective: fast and flexible
development, not reuse
Aptana
note to collaborators: need more
examples of general tools and IDE’s for
Web 2.0 development

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Technology - other
enabling technologies
XML
Web ser vices: net work as platform
• (see “Microsoft declares end of PC era”)

Django: a high-level Python Web framework


RSS
Adobe Flex
Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 61
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Technology - Design
guidelines, best practices
Agile development
• Scott Rosenberg’s dissent: 5-year Web 2.0 design cycle

Client-ser ver issues


UI issues
Problems with non-integrated Web 2.0
apps

Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 62


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Products/Vendors
Aspects of Web 2.0 usage
Big vendors
Top 25 UK vendors
Top Italian Web apps
Web apps around the world
Social Net working Ser vices
Other startups, small vendors
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Aspects of Web 2.0 usage
Use of Web 2.0 technologies
One perspective: blogs, wikis, podcasts, RSS,
social net works, content tags
Providing Web 2.0 products/ser vices
People power
Use of mashups
Use of Long Tail concept
Emerging theme: let users (customers) take
their data with them when/if they leave
Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 64
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Big Vendors
Google
Yahoo
Microsoft
IBM
Apple
Cisco

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Google
The Economist: “Who’s Afraid of Google?”

Google’s Master Plan (just kidding!)

My visit to Google

Mashups: Google’s MyMaps

Long Tail: statistics on advertising

People Power: Google Pages

Google Apps

Google Powerpoint

Google Notebook (in 17 languages!)

New stuff: Google3D

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Yahoo

Relationship with JotSpot


Yahoo buys Zimbra
Yahoo Pipes

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Microsoft
Net work as Platform: Windows Live
Blogging tool: Windows Live Writer
• Computer world review

Support for Ajax


Mashups
• Strategy

• MapCruncher

Long Tail -- XBox Live Arcade


Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 68
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IBM
Summary of Web 2.0 initiatives
Mashup strategy
Support for Ruby on Rails
Support for Ajax
Lotus Notes V8
IBM acquires Web conferencing ser vice
provider
Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 69
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Apple
Long Tail: iTunes
People Power: iWeb
Mashups: rumor of iPhoto-GoogleMap
mashup (which Flickr already has!)
Use of Web 2.0 technologies: Ajax (e.g.,
Apple’s .Mac web-mail)
Innovative UI: iPhone, iPod Touch
Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 70
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Cisco

Cisco Buys Five Across


Cisco Buys Webex

Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 71


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Products/vendors:
Social Net working Ser vices
YouTube: 100 million videos/day
• John Dvorak’s analysis of YouTube success factors

• Acquired by Google on Oct 9, 2006

MySpace, FaceBook, etc.


SecondLife
Statistic: 300 social net working startups in last t wo years
Statistic: 100,000 Ning “micro” social net works (see Ning)
Top 20 social net works, ranked
Now used heavily by middle-aged audiences
Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 72
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Other startups,
small vendors
Digg (more)
37 Signals’ HighRise CRM
Zoho CRM
Scoble’s review of SmartSheet
Naymz
NetSuite’s Ajax-based interactive dashboards
Web 2.0 company name generator (amusing)
Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 73
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Digg
Inter view with Digg’s Kevin Rose
Ed’s report on Digg
Digg Swarm
Digg Stack
Digg BigSpy

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Business Issues
Basic issues
Reactions and trends in large companies
Web 2.0 in government
Recommended strategies for “traditional”
companies
Strategies for startup companies

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Business: basic issues
Strategic
• Use Web 2.0 (including related concepts like Long Tail) to find new
products, ser vices, markets

• Use Web 2.0 to increase revenue, dramatically reduce costs

• Use Web 2.0 to empower individual customers, employees -- and outsiders


like retirees, alumni, and others

Tactical
• Encourage collaboration with wikis

• Encourage communication with blogs

• Improve UI of web-based products and ser vices with AJAX, etc.

• Use new tools like Ruby on Rails to build Web 2.0 products, ser vices more
quickly
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Reactions and trends in
large companies
Technology adoption cycle
“CIO” prediction for 2007: “IT reluctantly embraces Web 2.0”
Expect conser vative reaction from CIO’s
Two views of Web 2.0 use in business for 2007
“IT Can’t Stop Web 2.0”
Knowledge Worker 2.0
Sun’s endorsement of CEO blogging
High-level blogging at Intel
“Dark blogs”
Microsoft has 3,000 external blogs, 10,000 internal blogs
• note to collaborators: do you know of any articles or blog postings to confirm this statistic? I’ve only heard it verbally, from a
Microsoft presenter, at a Web 2.0 conference in 2006
WebWorkerDaily: acknowledging lifestyle of distributed workers
IBM comments on collaboration and business-oriented social net works
CEO reaction to social media
Social net working as a business tool
Ed’s notes on corporate blogging here, and here; sample corporate blogging policies here and here
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Web 2.0 in government
One basic strategy: shift control and resources for ser vices,
information, and expression of ideas/opinions to citizens
Travel delays, parking information
Saving democracy with Web 2.0
Hastily Formed Net works (HFN’s)
US Federal Government Web 2.0
Nor wegian Government Web 2.0
Tim O’Reilly on government’s use of Web 2.0
Section 508 compliance issues
U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency’s use of Web 2.0
A-Space
IBM on governmental blogging
Poll: is the government ready for Web 2.0?
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Recommended strategies
for traditional companies
Developing an enterprise Web 2.0 strategy
A Microsoft perspective on business opportunities for Web 2.0
SWOT analysis
Pilot projects
Skunk works
Acquisitions
Heed advice for avoiding dot-bomb 2.0
Business model for mashups

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Recommended strategies:
SWOT analysis
Opportunities
• New products, ser vices
• New markets, new customers (Long Tail)
• Greater customer loyalty
• Greater employee loyalty
• Faster time, lower cost for R&D, product development

Threats
• New competitors whose existence you don’t even know about
• More effective competition from competitors who are enjoying the benefits
oppportunities summarized above
• Loss of reputation (e.g., from customer blogs)
• Risk of malware
Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 80
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Strategies for startups

Scobleizer’s advice
Brad Feld’s advice about VC economics
for Web 2.0 companies

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Cultural Issues
People power
Generational trends
Open, sharable content/interface
• Hook into Google, Yahoo, Amazon, etc.

• Look for ways to “open up” your own company’s intellectual/information assets

“Out ward bound” collaboration: retirees,


alumni, hobbyists
Long Tail impact
Perpetual beta environment
Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 82
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Cultural Issues:
people power
Customers
Employees
Marketplace
Citizens

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People power: customers
Let them help design new products
Let them help suggest ads/marketing
• kayak.com user ads

• Chevy Tahoe user commercial

Let them provide feedback/commentary


on products/ser vices
Let them help other customers with
problems/support
Sometimes they know more than the
developer/manufacturer
Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 84
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People power: employees
Let them blog behind the firewall, if not openly and
publicly
Remember: Microsoft has 3,000 external blogs
and 10,000 internal blogs
Example: CEO of Sun Microsystems blogs
Example: UN policy - permission required for
writing books, but not posting blogs!
Non-technical example at Google: new products
bubble up from the bottom of organization
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People power: marketplace

Viral marketing
Viral dissemination of good news and
bad news
• AOL cancellation example

• Comcast customer ser vice visit

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People power: citizens
Decreased dependence on
“authoritative” source of news/content
Political commentary
• “Daily Show” commentary on Viacom-Google billion dollar lawsuit

• Philippine activists using YouTube to spread word about political protest


issues

• Mashup of George Bush and U2’s “Sunday, Bloody Sunday”

Products/ser vices get adapted in


unexpected ways
• New York Times: CraigsList used by prostitutes
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Cultural Issues:
Generational trends
Demographics of bloggers
Rise of the “silver surfers”
Senior management is t wo generations
older than today’s Web 2.0-sav vy
population
What Web 2.0 will mean for the next
generation of the workforce
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Cultural issues:
Long Tail Impact
Stop focusing entirely on “big hits”
Look for ways to create/nourish a “long
tail” of products/ser vices
Often represents a huge cultural change
for the business people (e.g., R&D,
product planning, marketing, etc.)
whose job always assumed emphasizing
the big hits and ignoring almost
everything else
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Cultural issues:
perpetual beta concept

“Good enough” culture


Weekly releases of new downloadable
updates/enhancements -- versus annual
releases of new products

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Trends
Caveat: predicting the future is hard
And there is resistance to “paradigm shifts”
Basic point: today’s R&D is next decade’s
“mainstream”
Gartner’s view of Web 2.0 trends
Kevin Kelly’s view of “next web”
Web 3.0
Technical trends
Business trends
Social/cultural trends
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Trends: predicting the
future is hard!
Fubini’s Law
People least likely to anticipate how
new technology will be applied
Examples of inaccurate predictions

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Trends: today’s R&D is
tomorrow’s “mainstream
Some of it is secret
Some of it is ignored, dismissed, rejected,
or laughed at
And some is being used by “pre-early
adopters”

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Web 3.0
New York Times article on Web 3.0
“What to Expect from Web 3.0”
Mass Market becomes Long Tail
List of cool Web 3.0 apps
Tim Berners-Lee: Web 3.0 = “semantic Web”
Semantic Web = end of Google?
Freebase: Wikipedia + Open Directory
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Trends: technical

Moore’s Law
New user interface (UI) paradigms
Death of the PC?
• Would a typical teenager prefer a new smart-phone, or a new PC?

• Rise of the thin-client device

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Trends, technical: Moore’s Law

10 years = 6.67 doublings = 101.6x improvement over today’s


technology
Per vasive (ubiquitous) computing: today’s $100 computer
becomes $1
Similar advances in speed, storage, bandwidth, footprint
Computers exceed human intelligence?
Embedded computing
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Trends, technical:
ubiquitous computing
Everyware: the dawning age of
ubiquitous computing
The $100 laptop
• OLPC site

• “Buy a Laptop for a Child, Get Another Laptop Free”

IEEE special issue on per vasive


computing

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Trends, technical:
embedded computing
RFID
Everything has an IP address
Ambient devices
The bionic woman/man?

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Trends: business
Web 2.0 will put some Web 1.0 companies out of
business
Death of Microsoft?
Appearance of next Google?
Decreased relevance of venture capitalists?
Boundary bet ween customers and companies
blurs
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Trends: social/cultural
Impact of a new generation of tech-sav vy users
Next 5 billion Internet users
Boundary bet ween government and citizens blur
Revenge by gadget
Blurring of (some) political boundaries
• Net work Nations

• MySpace is now 11th largest country in the world

Impact on education
Blurring of “real life” and “virtual life”
Video: “Shift Happens”
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Trends: a new generation of
tech-sav vy users

“What Does Generation Y Want?”


Growing Up Digital: the rise of the Net
generation
“Google, a Girl, and the Coming
Apocalypse”
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Trends: impact on education
Banning Wikipedia for research papers
Should children learn to operate in
society/schools without Google?
Columbia Center for New Media
Teaching & Learning
Crowdsourcing Readings and Resources
Top Web Tools for Students
Student contributions to wikis
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Conclusions
Assume Web 2.0 is “real,” even if over-hyped
• Infoworld Oct 2006 assessment: “Bubble 2.0?”

Your objectives should be:


• Ajaxify
• Wikify
• Long-tail-ify
• Open up API’s for mashups
• Enable your people (customers, employees, citizens

Assess your company’s response to new waves of technology


• Crossing the Chasm
• Is your company an innovator, early adopter, mainstream, or laggard?
• Separate technical response from business response!

Consider a pilot project


• Guidelines for pilots: not too big, not too small; fast results; important, but not mission-
critical; well-measured; used partly as a training opportunity
• Consider letting users drive it
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References

Conferences
Books
Websites and blogs
Articles

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References - conferences
Web 2.0 Summit 2007
Web 2.0 Expo (USA)
Web 2.0 Expo Berlin
Web 2.0 Expo Tokyo
Le Web 3/Paris
Future of Web Apps/London
Asia Web 2.0 conference/Singapore
Other related Web 2.0 conferences
PopTech (Camden, Maine)
European “Next Web” 2007 (Amsterdam)
AJAX World 2007
Ajaxian conferences
Wikimania 2008 (venue not chosen as of 09/25/2007)
Enterprise 2.0/Boston
note to collaborators: please update these conferences with 2008 dates!
note to collaborators: please add new conferences where relevant!
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References - Books
Specific Web 2.0 books
• Web 2.0: The Future of the Internet and Technology Economy
• Building Scalable Web Sites
Ajax books
• Pragmatic Ajax: A Web 2.0 Primer
• Head Rush Ajax
• Ajax in Action
Ruby on Rails books
• Ruby on Rails: up and running
• Agile Web Development with Rails: A pragmatic guide
Misc books
• Everything is Miscellaneous: the power of the new disorder
• Wikinomics: how mass collaboration changes everything
• The Wealth of Nations: how social production transforms markets and freedoms
• The Clue Train Manifesto
• The Search: how Google and its rivals rewrote the rules of business, and transformed our culture
• Wiki Web Collaboration
• The Long Tail: why the future of business is selling less and less of more and more
note to collaborators: please add important new Web 2.0 books, as appropriate...

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References - blogs & websites
my blog: The Yourdon Report
O’Reilly’s: “What is Web 2.0”
O’Reilly Radar blog
Google Maps Mania
StartupNews.com
eHub - Web 2.0 startups
News about startups: TechCrunch
Chris Anderson’s “The Long Tail” blog
Steve Borsch’s “Connecting the Dots” blog
Howard Rheingold’s “Smart Mobs” blog
Official Google blog
Web 2.0 slides - 1,400 sites
Ian Delaney’s “Twopointtouch” blog
David Weinberger’s “JOHO the Blog”
Stowe Boyd’s “/Message” blog
Luis Suarez’s elsua: the Knowledge Management blog
note to collaborators: please add important new Web 2.0 blogs, as appropriate

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References - articles
“Someone to Watch Over Me (on a Google Map),” by Theodora Stites, New York Times, Jul 9, 2006
“Small is Beautiful for Web 2.0 Startups,” by Martin LaMonia, CNET News, Feb 6, 2006
“Soft ware Out There,” by John Markoff, New York TImes, Apr 5, 2006
“The Rise of Crowdsourcing,” by Jeff Howe, Wired, June 2006
“Digital Publishing Scrambles the Rules,” by Motoki Rich, New York Times, Jun 5, 2006
“Scan This Book!”, by Kevin Kelly, May 14, 2006
“The New Wisdom of the Web,” by Steven Levy and Brad Stone, Newsweek, April 3, 2006
“Microsoft Offers Range of Programs That Run Off Web, Not Hard Disk,” by Walter Mossberg, Wall Street Journal, Dec 15, 2005
“Corporate Americas Wakes Up To Web 2.0,” by Martin LaMonica, ZDNet News, Jun 26, 2006
“Are CIO’s Ignoring Web 2.0 Technologies?”, by Allen Alter, CIO Insight, May 10, 2006
“Web 2.0: The New Internet ‘Boom’ Doesn’t Live Up To Its Name,” by Paul Boutin, Slate, March 29, 2006
“AJAX Spurs Web Rebirth for Desktop Apps,” by Martin LaMonica, ZDNet News, Dec 1, 2005
“Ajax: Smoother Surfing Without Microsoft,” by Daren Briscoe, Newsweek, January 30, 2006
“New Web-Based Technology Draws Applications, Investors,” by Mylene Mangalindan and Rebecca Buckman, Wall Street Journal,
Nov 3, 2005
“Growing Wikipedia Revises Its ‘Anyone Can Edit’ Policy,” by Katie Hafner, New York Times, Jun 17, 2006
“Homo Conexus,” by James Fallows, Technology Review, Jul-Aug 2006
“The Internet Knows What You’ll Do Next,” by David Leonhardt, New York Times, Jul 5, 2006
“Does Every Company Need A Web 2.0 Strategy?” by Dion Hinchcliffe, ZDNet, Aug 9, 2006
“Creating Business Value With Web 2.0,” Cutter IT Journal special issue, October 2006
note to collaborators: please add important new Web 2.0 articles, as appropriate.

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