PP 7767/09/2010(025354)

马来西亚 技术分析
RHB Research
Institute Sdn Bhd
A member of the
RHB Banking Group
Company No: 233327 -M

每周技术观点 2010 年 7 月 26 日
MARKET DATELINE

原产品和外汇
原产品可能会进一步反弹…

主要原产品的图表表现：

轻质原油期货 Light Sweet Crude Oil futures （原

图 1∶轻质原油期货（周线图）
油）

♦ 上周，美国轻质原油期货期货（US Light Sweet Crude

oil）在图表上形成一根“十字线”（doji），显示之前的上
扬波段已出现喘息的迹象。

♦ 它于上周划出一根阳烛，并收高于 78 美元关键阻力水平和
40 周移动平均线（即 77.4 美元）。

♦ 这建议本周将出现跟进买盘动力。

♦ 如果它能够在本周累积另一根阳烛，这将会确认它已突破
78 美元关卡，并将会迈向 87 美元阻力水平前进。

♦ 经过上周的涨势后，原油已在长期上升趋势线（UTL）（即
接近 73 美元）重拾长期复苏趋势。

原棕油期货 Crude Palm Oil futures （原棕油）

图 2∶原棕油期货（周线图）

♦ 经过前周的利多阳烛后，原棕油期货（CPO）在上周发动一
轮持续性的涨势，并创下另一根阳烛。

♦ 可是，在触及 2,535 令吉全周高峰后，原棕油便失守 2,500

令吉重要关卡。

♦ 虽然技术解读维持看俏，以显示本周将出现跟进买盘动力，但
是它无法站稳于 2,500 令吉关口以上的走势，反映出上升趋
势将不顺利。

♦ 加上它获得 10 周和 40 周移动平均线（即介于 2,417 令吉至

2,486 令吉）之间支撑区的扶持，所以原棕油必须在本周划
出一根阳烛，以加强它在 2,500 令吉的反弹走势。

♦ 若它无法做到，套利活动将会推低它下探至 2,200 令吉支撑

水平。

请仔细阅读位于本报告尾页的重要披露（ IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES）

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特定外汇的图表解读：

图 3∶令吉兑美元（周线图） 令吉兑美元 Ringgit （令吉）/ US$（美元）

♦ 在前周记录一根小阳烛后，令吉兑美元汇率于上周恢复跌
势，并以一根“看跌抱线型态”（bearish engulfing）走
低至 3.1835。

♦ 再加上动力指标也进一步滑落，这表示令吉看来将兑美元恢
复升势。

♦ 当前挑战为重新测试 4 月的 3.1614 低点。一旦闯破这道关

口，这意味着令吉将会出现更多买气。

♦ 根据它在 2009 年 10 月所形成的一个“头肩顶型态”

（Head & Shoulders formation），其目标应落在 3.07
水平（即 2008 年 3 月低点）。

♦ 图表阻力水平位于 3.29，既靠近 35 周移动平均线（即

3.31）。

图 4∶日元兑美元（周线图） 日元兑美元 Japanese Yen （日元）/ US$（美元）

♦ 日元兑美元汇率在前周失守 87 关键支持水平和邻近的下降
趋势阻力线（DRL）后，它便恰时地在上周发动一轮回弹。

♦ 该汇率记录一根小阳烛，暗示日元兑美元的上扬波段可能会
暂停。

♦ 随着动力指标维持在“超卖区”，因此如果图表能够在本周
再度形成一根阳烛，那么它可能会出现反弹。

♦ 上升目标设在 60 周移动平均线（即 91.7），接下来的强硬

阻力线为 95.5。

♦ 目前，我们认为，DRL 和 87 水平将会继续抵抗下跌压力。

图 5∶欧元兑美元（周线图） 欧元兑美元 Euro Dollar （欧元）/ US$（美元）

♦ 一如我们较早前所警告，即使欧元兑美元汇率在较早前形成
了多根阴烛，但它在上周以一根“十字线”暂停下降趋势。

♦ 该汇率报收于 0.77 重要扶持水平，即靠近 21 周移动平均

线（即 0.775）。

♦ 加上随机指标（stochastic oscillators）和 14 周强弱指标

（14-week RSI）也稍微转升，所以如果它有能力在本周
记录一根小阳烛，那么美元可能会开始反弹。

♦ 相反地，如果它取得一根阴烛，那么这标志着欧元将在接下
来恢复兑美元的强势。

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 美元指数 US Dollar Index （DXY）
图 6∶美元指数（周线图）
♦ 当美元指数（DXY）在上周报收于 82.65 时，这表示它已
连跌了长达 7 周。

♦ 惟在“倒锤头线”（inverted hammer）的形成下，这显
示美元可能会在本周反弹。

♦ 加上随机指标发出一个不显眼的“买入”讯号，而 14 周强
弱指标也持平，假如强弱指标能够超越 50 点水平的话，那
么这将会触发另一个“买入”讯号。

♦ 届 时 ， 这 将 会 带 动 该 指 数 上 挑 21 周 移 动 平 均 线 （ 即
83.57），接下来则是 85 强力扶持力。

♦ 在下跌方面，美元将会在接近 81 获得扶持。

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

This report has been prepared by RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd (RHBRI) and is for private circulation only to clients of RHBRI and RHB Investment Bank Berhad
(previously known as RHB Sakura Merchant Bankers Berhad). It is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. The
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be contrary to opinions expressed by other business units within the RHB Group as a result of using different assumptions and criteria. This report is not to be
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Technical recommendation framework for stocks and sectors are as follows: -

Technical Recommendation:
Trading Buy = Short-term positive opportunity spotted. It is an aggressive trading recommendation with a book to sellers’ price for short-term technical upside.
Bargain Buy = Short-term positive but technical signals have yet to trigger a rally. Traders can park and queue for their desired entry level within a small range.
Buy on Weakness = Short- to Medium-term positiveness anticipated, but technical readings are still negative. Traders can pick-up the stock for future rally.
Sell on Strength = Short-term momentum still positive, Traders are advice to lock in profit base on current strength.
Take Profit = Short-term target achieved. Traders are advice to exit before the technical readings turn bearish.
Avoid = Risky situation in the short-term and high volatility expected on the share price. Traders’ best strategy is staying away until it stabilises.

Technical Time Frame:

Immediate-term = short time frame within a contra period.
Short-term = moderate time frame within two to three contra periods. For tracking purposes, we refer to 10 trading days.
Medium-term = medium time frame usually refers to two to three weeks period. For tracking purposes, we refer to 20 trading days.

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