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马来西亚
RHB Research
技术分析 Institute Sdn Bhd
A member of the
RHB Banking Group
Company No: 233327 -M
每日交投策略
MARKET DATELINE
2010 年 8 月 27 日
市场技术解读
需要更多确认讯号,以恢复上扬动力…
本地股市的交投指引∶
♦ 本地股市周四大力反弹并以全年新高报收,归功于隔夜美国股市强力复苏和区域股市的回弹。
♦ 不过,整体市场的交投士气维持呆滞,这反映在低靡的交投量,而且市场也缺乏交投指引。
♦ 在海外,亚洲股市趁着隔夜美国股市掉头反转而展开一波温和的复苏走势。与此同时,欧洲股市昨日也强力开高。
技术解读∶
♦ 惟在疲弱的每日交投量和好坏参半的动力解读下,富时综指需要更多确认讯号,以决定该指数的短期走向。
♦ 若它能做到,这将会使到该指数避开触发一轮短期调整。
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2010 年 8 月 27 日
每日交投策略∶
♦ 昨日出人意表的反转走势确实令我们感到意外,而这也降低了富时综指短期上升趋势出现一轮技术调整的可能性。
♦ 随着它取得一根巨大阳烛,加上该指数也成功创下 30 个月新高,这标志着之前的多头动力可能会恢复。
♦ 不过,从起落参半的动力解读和疲弱的每日交投量(低于 8 亿至 10 亿股之间以下)看来,我们在加入看好富时综指的涨势
之前宁愿等待市场今日出现更多确认讯号。下一道上涨目标为 1,450 点。
♦ 我们认为,投资者料将会等待今晚的美国次季国内生产总值(GDP)的数据和联邦储备局(Federal Reserve)主席贝南克
(Ben Bernanke)的重要演词,以决定他们将在下周采取怎样的行动。
表 1 ∶每日统计 表 2∶主要海外指数及原产品
8月 8月 8月 8月 8月 变动 变动
收盘
股市摘要 20 日 23 日 24 日 25 日 26 日 本地主要指数 (点) (%)
上升股 富时大马综合指数 1,408.00 11.03 0.8
316 291 206 186 353
下跌股 富时大马 100 指数 9,198.88 61.62 0.7
394 465 585 585 333
平盘 富时大马创业板 3,741.09 2.39 0.1
327 270 241 268 294
无交易 各大海外指数
334 345 335 328 385
道琼斯工商指数 9,985.81 -74.25 -0.7
市场资本 纳斯达克指数 2,118.69 -22.85 -1.1
总成交量 标准与普尔 500 1,047.22 -8.11 -0.8
(百万股) 834 805 894 873 685 伦敦金融时报指数 5,155.84 46.44 0.9
总成交值 恒生指数 20,612.06 -22.92 -0.1
(百万令吉) 1,341 1,338 1,651 1,732 1,292 雅加达综合指数 3,145.14 6.23 0.2
东京日经 225 指数 8,906.48 61.09 0.7
外汇 首尔综合指数 1,729.76 -5.03 -0.3
令吉兑美元 3.1360 3.1310 3.1435 3.1393 3.1410 上海综合指数 2,603.48 6.90 0.3
曼谷综合指数 886.1 1.59 0.2
资料来源∶RHBInvest &彭博社( Bloomberg) 新加坡海峡时报指数 2,925.87 -0.68 0.0
台湾加权指数 7,689.74 -47.24 -0.6
印度 Sensex 指数 18,226.35 46.71 0.3
主要原产品
纽约商品交易所
(NYMEX)原油期货
(每桶/美元) 73.36 0.84 1.2
MDEX 原棕油 – 第 3
个月 (每公吨/令吉) 2,530.00 44.00 1.8
美国利率 目前 最新
10 年 8 月
隔夜联邦基金利率 0-0.25% 无变动
10 日
下个联邦公开市场操作
2010 年 9 月 21 日
委员会(FOMC)会议
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2010 年 8 月 27 日
图 3∶吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)(日线图) 图 4∶吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)(单日线图)
技术解读∶
♦ 受到现货市场强力走高和区域股市交投情绪的改善所激励,吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)昨日出乎意料地恢复多头动力,并
创下全年新高。
♦ 从原本的呆滞走势,期指趁着现货市场走强和欧洲股市大力开高而步入一道复苏走势中。
♦ 从它以一根利淡阳烛创下 30 个月来的新高看来,这显示近日的多头情绪即将恢复。
♦ 下一道上涨目标为 1,450 点。
每日交投策略∶
♦ FKLI 昨日出人意表地以一轮凌厉的复苏走势回弹,这反映出新一波涨势有望成形。
♦ 不过,在还没有再次转俏之前,交易员应等待更多确认讯号。
表 3∶吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)收盘
FKLI (月份) 变动
合约 开盘 最高 最低 收盘 (点) 结算 成交量 未平仓宗数
10 年 8 月 1394.00 1409.50 1392.00 1409.50 16.00 1409.50 10273 16740
10 年 9 月 1391.50 1409.50 1391.50 1409.50 19.00 1409.50 9430 5823
10 年 12 月 1392.00 1408.00 1391.50 1408.00 16.50 1408.00 176 405
11 年 3 月 1394.50 1407.50 1394.50 1407.50 15.00 1408.00 46 199
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2010 年 8 月 27 日
图 5∶美国道琼斯工商指数(DJIA)(日线图) 图 6∶美国纳斯达克指数(Nasdaq)(日线图)
美国股市的交投指引∶
♦ 起初,投资者对于大于预期的每周首次失业救济金申请人数的跌幅作出积极反应。劳工部指出,上周的首次失业救济金申请
人数下降了 3 万 1 千人至 47 万 3 千人。
♦ 此外,即将于周五公布的修订后次季国内生产总值数据,以及贝南克将在联储局常年会议上对美国经济展望发表重要演词,
也导致投资者转为谨慎。经济学家预计有关经济增长率将向下下修至 1.4%,低于之前所预测的 2.4%。
技术解读∶
♦ 在图表上,该指数以一根利淡阴烛报收,显示调整波段即将延续。
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2010 年 8 月 27 日
每日技术焦点∶
图 7∶成功集团( BjCorp)(日线图) 图 8∶成功集团(单日线图)
卖压料将继续在近期延续…
♦ 此外,虽然动力指标已稍微触及“超卖区”,但卖压还是会在近期延续。
技术解读∶
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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
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Technical Recommendation:
Trading Buy = Short-term positive opportunity spotted. It is an aggressive trading recommendation with a book to sellers’ price for short-term technical upside.
Bargain Buy = Short-term positive but technical signals have yet to trigger a rally. Traders can park and queue for their desired entry level within a small range.
Buy on Weakness = Short- to Medium-term positiveness anticipated, but technical readings are still negative. Traders can pick-up the stock for future rally.
Sell on Strength = Short-term momentum still positive, Traders are advice to lock in profit base on current strength.
Take Profit = Short-term target achieved. Traders are advice to exit before the technical readings turn bearish.
Avoid = Risky situation in the short-term and high volatility expected on the share price. Traders’ best strategy is staying away until it stabilises.
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