PP 7767/09/2010(025354)

马来西亚
RHB Research
技术分析 Institute Sdn Bhd
A member of the
RHB Banking Group
Company No: 233327 -M

MARKET DATELINE

每周技术观 点 2010 年 8 月 30 日

原产品和外汇
欧元有望兑美元反弹…

主要原产品的图表表现：
主要原产品的图表表现：

轻质原油期货 Light Sweet Crude Oil futures （ 原

图 1∶
∶轻质原油期货
轻质原油期货（
期货（周线图）
周线图）
油）

♦ 在前周形成一系列疲弱技术解读后，美国轻质原油期货期货
（US Light Sweet Crude oil）在上周一度下挫至 70.76
美元全周最低点，然后才按周上扬至周五的 75.17 美元。

♦ 该原油记录了一根“锤头线”（hammer），显示本周可能
会出现一轮技术反弹。

♦ 上周的收盘也成功制止该指数穿破位于邻近 74 美元的长期
上升趋势线（UTL）。

♦ 不过，从好坏参半的动力解读看来，我们认为，原油将再次
在本周于 40 周移动平均线（即 77.30 美元），即接近 78
美元阻力水平面对阻力。

♦ 有鉴于此，我们预料本周的交投波幅将收窄至 74 美元至 78
美元之间。

原棕油期货 Crude Palm Oil futures （原棕油）

原棕油）
图 2∶
∶原棕油期货（
原棕油期货（周线图）
周线图）

♦ 令人惊讶的是，原棕油期货（CPO）展开恰时的反弹，并成
功避开在上周触发跌破 2,500 令吉关键水平的利淡讯号。

♦ 它一度跌破 10 周移动平均线（即 2,495 令吉）和 40 周移动

平均线（即 2,526 令吉）以下至 2,486 令吉全周最低点。惟
上周的临尾复苏走势成功推动它回升至该移动平均线以上。

♦ 随着它划出一根“锤头线”，它有望在本周发动一轮技术反
弹。

♦ 换言之，它可望在来周展开一轮涨势，以上挑 2,737 令吉全

年新高和 2,760 令吉阻力线。

♦ 惟在好坏参半的动力下，假如卖压在本周维持强大，那么原棕
油或会处于 10 周和 40 周移动平均线之间，即 2,500 令吉至
2,600 令吉之间。

请仔细阅读位于本报告尾页的重要披露（
请仔细阅读位于本报告尾页的重要披露（ IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES）

Page 1 of 3
特定外汇的图表解读：
特定外汇的图表解读：

图 3∶
∶令吉兑美元
令吉兑美元（
兑美元（周线图）
周线图） 令吉兑美元
令吉兑美元 Ringgit （令吉）
令吉）/ US$（
（美元）
美元）

♦ 在令吉兑美元汇率在前周划出一根“看跌抱线型态”
（bearish engulfing）后，该货币便在上周全周处于横摆
格局内。

♦ 它取得一根“类似十字线”（doji-like），反映出近期走向
将不明朗。

♦ 周线随机指标（weekly stochastics）已稍微转俏，但 14
周强弱指标（14-week RSI）却维持平平，这意味着该货
币不愿在近期转俏。

♦ 虽然我们继续看俏令吉兑美元的展望，但我们也不能排出美
元可能会在本周小幅复苏的可能性。

♦ 无论如何，我们还是维持令吉兑美元的中期目标，即
3.07。

图 4∶
∶日元兑美元
日元兑美元（
兑美元（周线图）
周线图） 日元兑美元
日元兑美元 Japanese Yen （日元）
日元）/ US$（
（美元）
美元）

♦ 诚如所料，日元兑美元继续在上周处于压力下，并一度触底
于 83.5 的新低，即自 1995 年 6 月以来的最低水平。然
后，它才复苏至 85.33。

♦ 在图表上，该货币形成一根“锤头线”，显示本周将进一步
复苏。

♦ 虽然如此，从其收盘看来，它在上周成功捍卫位于 85 的下
降趋势阻力线（DRL）。目前，DRL 仍是该货币的良好扶持
水平。

♦ 不过，这不表示美元将会在近期强力反弹，这是因为我们相
信，87 阻力水平将会限制美元的任何反弹。

♦ 换言之，该货币料将在本周于 DRL 至 87 阻力水平之间游

移。

图 5∶
∶欧元兑美元
欧元兑美元（
兑美元（周线图）
周线图） 欧元兑
欧元兑美元 Euro Dollar （欧元）
欧元）/ US$（
（美元）
美元）

♦ 上周，欧元兑美元汇率继续形成另一个短期顶部蜡烛形态。

♦ 在前周划出一根“上吊线”（hangman）后，该货币便在
上周纪录了一根“流星线”（shooting star）。

♦ 从图表看来，我们认为，美元兑欧元的反弹可能会在近期步
入喘息。

♦ 若该货币跌破 21 周移动平均线（即 0.78）和 0.77 重要扶

持水平以下，欧元将有望进一步复苏至 0.73 和 0.695。

♦ 下一道图表阻力水平为 0.80，接下来则是 0.85。

Page 2 of 3
 美元指数 US Dollar Index （DXY）
）
图 6∶
∶美元指数（
美元指数（周线图）
周线图）
♦ 由于美元指数（DXY）在图表上记录一根小阴烛，这导致其
复苏走势于上周止步。

♦ 这也确认该指数无法取下 21 周移动平均线（即 84）和位于

85 的重要图表阻力线。

♦ 从 14 周强弱指标向下转低看来，美元指数应会掉头反转近
日的升势，而将会向下回退至 81 扶持力。

♦ 若它跌破这道关卡和于 2010 年 8 月初所创下的 80.5 低

点，那么这将会触发跟进卖压走势，以下探下一道位于 76
和 78 的水平。

♦ 为了使到展望转俏，它必须突破 21 周移动平均线和 85 重
要关卡。

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

This report has been prepared by RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd (RHBRI) and is for private circulation only to clients of RHBRI and RHB Investment Bank Berhad
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Technical recommendation framework for stocks and sectors are as follows: -

Technical Recommendation:
Trading Buy = Short-term positive opportunity spotted. It is an aggressive trading recommendation with a book to sellers’ price for short-term technical upside.
Bargain Buy = Short-term positive but technical signals have yet to trigger a rally. Traders can park and queue for their desired entry level within a small range.
Buy on Weakness = Short- to Medium-term positiveness anticipated, but technical readings are still negative. Traders can pick-up the stock for future rally.
Sell on Strength = Short-term momentum still positive, Traders are advice to lock in profit base on current strength.
Take Profit = Short-term target achieved. Traders are advice to exit before the technical readings turn bearish.
Avoid = Risky situation in the short-term and high volatility expected on the share price. Traders’ best strategy is staying away until it stabilises.

Technical Time Frame:

Immediate-term = short time frame within a contra period.
Short-term = moderate time frame within two to three contra periods. For tracking purposes, we refer to 10 trading days.
Medium-term = medium time frame usually refers to two to three weeks period. For tracking purposes, we refer to 20 trading days.

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