Professional Documents
Culture Documents
马来西亚
RHB Research
技术分析 Institute Sdn Bhd
A member of the
RHB Banking Group
Company No: 233327 -M
每日交投策略
MARKET DATELINE
2010 年 9 月 28 日
市场技术解读
一旦破除 10 日移动平均线,这将会激起更多购兴…
图 1∶
∶富时大马综合指数(
富时大马综合指数(FBM KLCI)(
)(日线图
)(日线图)
日线图) 图 2∶
∶富时大马综合指数(
富时大马综合指数(单日线图)
单日线图)
本地股市的交投指引∶
♦ 由于华尔街股市上周五飙升,再加上区域股市也表现不俗,带动了本地股市周一逆转近日的整盘走势而大幅收高。
♦ 此外,吉隆坡期货市场的涨势和令吉的强势也重新引发本地股市的强大购兴。
技术解读∶
技术解读∶
♦ 随着多方趁着大资本股近日回调后而再度重返市场,这成功推动了富时综指展开一波凌厉反弹。
♦ 通过形成一根利多阳烛,这成功确认之前的“反击线”(dragonfly doji)。
请仔细阅读位于本报告尾页的重要披露(
请仔细阅读位于本报告尾页的重要披露( IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES)
Page 1 of 6
2010 年 9 月 28 日
每日交投策略∶
每日交投策略∶
♦ 一如之前所形成的“反击线”,富时综指昨日以一根阳烛而发动了一轮技术反弹。
♦ 在本地情绪料将获得表现不俗的区域股市的支撑下,我们相信投资者在最近的整盘中减持股票后将会再次返回市场。届时,
这又会触发另一轮的趁低吸购活动。
♦ 此外,只要交投量能维持在 10 亿至 14 亿股之间,那么核心蓝筹股和投机性低线股的轮流炒风料将会在近期继续吸引购
兴。
表 1 ∶每日统计 表 2∶
∶主要海外指数及原产品
9月 9月 9月 9月 9月 变动 变动
收盘
股市摘要 21 日 22 日 23 日 24 日 27 日 本地主要指数 (点) (%))
上升股 富时大马综合指数 1,464.71 13.52 0.9
368 398 221 408 469
下跌股 富时大马 100 指数 9,587.55 83.16 0.9
345 364 523 307 292
平盘 富时大马创业板 3,866.94 18.28 0.5
319 280 254 289 276
无交易 各大海外指数
322 311 354 342 309
道琼斯工商指数 10,812.04 -48.22 -0.4
市场资本 纳斯达克指数 2,369.77 -11.45 -0.5
总成交量 标准与普尔 500 1,142.16 -6.51 -0.6
(百万股) 1,050 1,333 999 1,727 1,158
伦敦金融时报指数 5,573.42 -25.06 -0.4
总成交值 恒生指数 22,340.84 221.41 1.0
(百万令吉) 1,514 2,022 1,417 1,531 1,623 雅加达综合指数 3,468.04 70.41 2.1
东京日经 225 指数 9,603.14 131.47 1.4
首尔综合指数 1,860.83 14.23 0.8
外汇 上海综合指数 2,627.97 36.42 1.4
令吉兑美元 3.1000 3.0900 3.0950 3.0900 3.0885 曼谷综合指数 962.47 10.57 1.1
新加坡海峡时报指数 3,113.46 20.78 0.7
资料来源∶RHBInvest &彭博社( Bloomberg)
台湾加权指数 8,191.54 24.92 0.3
印度 Sensex 指数 20,117.38 72.20 0.4
主要原产品
纽约商品交易所
(NYMEX)原油期货
(每桶/美元) 76.52 0.03 0.0
MDEX 原棕油 – 第 3
个月 (每公吨/令吉) 2,735.00 34.00 1.3
美国利率 目前 最新
10 年 9 月
隔夜联邦基金利率 0-0.25% 无变动
21 日
下个联邦公开市场操作
2010 年 11 月 2 日-3 日
委员会(FOMC)会议
Page 2 of 6
2010 年 9 月 28 日
图 3∶
∶吉隆坡综合期货指数(
吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)(
)(日线图
)(日线图)
日线图) 图 4∶
∶吉隆坡综合期货指数(
吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)(
)(单日线图
)(单日线图)
单日线图)
技术解读∶
技术解读∶
♦ 受美国股市上周五的凌厉涨势和乐观的区域交投情绪所鼓舞,本地期货指数成功在周一掀起一波强劲的涨潮。
♦ 基于 FKLI 昨日取得一根利多阳烛以确认上周五的“锤头线”(hammer),因此我们认为期指极有可能会在今日出现跟进
买盘动力。
♦ 除了 10 日移动平均线以外,1,450 点关口将继续支撑着当前的复苏走势。
每日交投策略∶
每日交投策略∶
表 3∶∶吉隆坡综合期货指数(
吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI))收盘
月份)
月份
FKLI (月份 变动
合约 开盘 最高 最低 收盘 (点) 结算 成交量 未平仓宗数
10 年 9 月 1456.50 1473.50 1455.50 1470.50 20.00 1470.50 11184 20906
10 年 10 月 1459.50 1474.50 1456.50 1471.00 19.50 1471.00 7574 1204
10 年 12 月 1459.00 1472.00 1457.00 1470.00 20.50 1470.00 167 363
11 年 3 月 1460.00 1471.00 1458.00 1467.50 17.50 1470.00 65 140
Page 3 of 6
2010 年 9 月 28 日
图 5∶
∶美国道琼斯工商指数(
美国道琼斯工商指数(DJIA)
)(日线图
日线图)
日线图 图 6∶
∶美国纳斯达克指数(
美国纳斯达克指数( Nasdaq)
)(日线图
日线图)
日线图
美国股市的交投指引∶
美国股市的交投指引∶
♦ 华尔街股市周一陷入临尾的卖压中,基于市场对欧洲银行的隐忧掩盖了一系列的并购活动的利好消息。
技术解读∶
技术解读∶
♦ 从它所形成的“利淡身怀六甲”(negative harami)看来,这显示近日的多头动力将会缓和下来。
♦ 通过形成一根“利淡身怀六甲”,这意味着今日可能会有跟进疲弱走势。
Page 4 of 6
2010 年 9 月 28 日
每日技术焦点∶
每日技术焦点∶
图 7∶
∶ 亚洲航空(
亚洲航空( AirAsia)(日线图
)(日线图)
日线图) 图 8∶
∶ 亚洲航空(
亚洲航空(单日线图)
单日线图)
♦ 此后,该股开始攀高,并在大多数时候稳健地趋高于 10 日移动平均线以上。
♦ 昨日的涨势意味着新一轮买盘动力有望带动该股走高,即使动力指标处于“严重超买”区。
技术解读∶
技术解读∶
♦ 10 日移动平均线(
日移动平均线(10-day SMA): RM2.081
♦ 40 日移动平均线(
日移动平均线(40-day SMA): RM1.771
♦ 阻力水平: IR = RM2.26
Page 5 of 6
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
This report has been prepared by RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd (RHBRI) and is for private circulation only to clients of RHBRI and RHB Investment Bank Berhad
(previously known as RHB Sakura Merchant Bankers Berhad). It is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. The
opinions and information contained herein are based on generally available data believed to be reliable and are subject to change without notice, and may differ or
be contrary to opinions expressed by other business units within the RHB Group as a result of using different assumptions and criteria. This report is not to be
construed as an offer, invitation or solicitation to buy or sell the securities covered herein. RHBRI does not warrant the accuracy of anything stated herein in any
manner whatsoever and no reliance upon such statement by anyone shall give rise to any claim whatsoever against RHBRI. RHBRI and/or its associated persons
may from time to time have an interest in the securities mentioned by this report.
This report does not provide individually tailored investment advice. It has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives
of persons who receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. RHBRI recommends that investors independently evaluate
particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial adviser. The appropriateness of a particular investment or
strategy will depend on an investor’s individual circumstances and objectives. Neither RHBRI, RHB Group nor any of its affiliates, employees or agents accepts
any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of this report.
RHBRI and the Connected Persons (the “RHB Group”) are engaged in securities trading, securities brokerage, banking and financing activities as well as providing
investment banking and financial advisory services. In the ordinary course of its trading, brokerage, banking and financing activities, any member of the RHB
Group may at any time hold positions, and may trade or otherwise effect transactions, for its own account or the accounts of customers, in debt or equity
securities or loans of any company that may be involved in this transaction.
“Connected Persons” means any holding company of RHBRI, the subsidiaries and subsidiary undertaking of such a holding company and the respective directors,
officers, employees and agents of each of them. Investors should assume that the “Connected Persons” are seeking or will seek investment banking or other
services from the companies in which the securities have been discussed/covered by RHBRI in this report or in RHBRI’s previous reports.
This report has been prepared by the research personnel of RHBRI. Facts and views presented in this report have not been reviewed by, and may not reflect
information known to, professionals in other business areas of the “Connected Persons,” including investment banking personnel.
The research analysts, economists or research associates principally responsible for the preparation of this research report have received compensation based
upon various factors, including quality of research, investor client feedback, stock picking, competitive factors and firm revenues.
Technical Recommendation:
Trading Buy = Short-term positive opportunity spotted. It is an aggressive trading recommendation with a book to sellers’ price for short-term technical upside.
Bargain Buy = Short-term positive but technical signals have yet to trigger a rally. Traders can park and queue for their desired entry level within a small range.
Buy on Weakness = Short- to Medium-term positiveness anticipated, but technical readings are still negative. Traders can pick-up the stock for future rally.
Sell on Strength = Short-term momentum still positive, Traders are advice to lock in profit base on current strength.
Take Profit = Short-term target achieved. Traders are advice to exit before the technical readings turn bearish.
Avoid = Risky situation in the short-term and high volatility expected on the share price. Traders’ best strategy is staying away until it stabilises.
Technical recommendations are generally short-term in nature and may differ from RHBRI’s equity fundamental view and recommendation on the same company.
RHBRI is a participant of the CMDF-Bursa Research Scheme and will receive compensation for the participation. Additional information on recommended
securities, subject to the duties of confidentiality, will be made available upon request.
This report may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without the written permission of RHBRI and RHBRI accepts no liability whatsoever for the
actions of third parties in this respect.
Page 6 of 6