Trump’s Approval Improved Moderately with Independents in Key States

POLITICAL • Trump’s approval rating continues to hold steady– 44% approve of the President’s
INTELLIGENCE
performance while 52% disapprove.
• Trump remains underwater in Nevada, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and
TRUMP Wisconsin. Though, his approval has improved marginally with independents in
Florida, Missouri, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

Key Reelection Contests Shift Slightly in Favor of Incumbents

• Most Senators in key states have a positive approval rating among their constituents,
Key SENATE
though voters are still more likely to say it’s time for a new person.
• McCaskill, Heller, and Manchin continue to face the toughest reelection battles.
Takeaways • Conditions have worsened slightly for Nelson, while Baldwin and Heitkamp have seen
a bump in favorability over the last month.

Democrats Maintain a Lead on the Generic Ballot

• In toss-up districts, the generic Democratic candidate slightly edges out the
Republican candidate, 41% to 34%.
• Voters in these districts also disapprove of the President’s performance – 54%
HOUSE disapprove and 42% approve.

• Trump’s approval has improved in safe Republican districts with 55% of voters
SLIDE / 2 approving and 41% disapproving. Trump is slightly underwater in districts that lean
Republican – 47% of voters in these districts approve and 48% disapprove
 POLITICAL INTELLIGENCE

2018 Midterms

Trump Approval
1 What voters think about POTUS

Generic Congressional Ballot

2 What voters think about control of the House and Senate

Approval and Reelection by Incumbent

3 What voters think about key officials

Top Policy Issues

4 What voters prioritize at the polls
 2018 MIDTERMS
Trump Approval by Party
POLITICAL
INTELLIGENCE

All Voters
44% 52%
Approve Disapprove
Change since
previous month +1 0

Trump
Strongly Somewhat Don’t Know / Somewhat Strongly
Approval Approve Approve No Opinion Disapprove Disapprove

Democrats 8% 13% 72% 12% 85%

Approve Disapprove

Independents 14% 24% 9% 16% 37%

38% 53%
Approve Disapprove

Republicans 49% 36% 8% 6% 84% 14%

Approve Disapprove
SLIDE / 4
 2018 MIDTERMS
Trump Net Approval in Competitive Senate States
POLITICAL
INTELLIGENCE

State All ()1 Dem. Ind. Rep. State All ()1 Dem. Ind. Rep.

1 (-0) -73 -13 69 -8 (+2) -80 -24 68

3 (+1) -68 -4 74 -5 (+2) -71 -14 71

Trump
Approval 6 (+1) -69 -6 74 -6 (-1) -69 -14 67

4 (+2) -71 -7 76 24 (+1) -41 21 77

1 (-2) -86 0 89 -15 (+1) -79 -16 68

-8 (-1) -75 -18 64

SLIDE / 5
Clinton won state in 2016 Trump won state in 2016
1 Change since previous month
presidential election presidential election
 2018 MIDTERMS
Trump Approval by Congressional District Competitiveness1
POLITICAL
INTELLIGENCE

Safe Districts that Districts that Safe

Democratic Lean Toss-Up Lean Republican
Districts Democratic Districts Republican Districts

Strongly
29% Disapprove
36%
Trump 51%
45% 41%
Somewhat
Approval 11% Disapprove

12% 5%
13% Don’t Know /
14% 5% No Opinion
13% 4% 26%
4%
24% Somewhat
5% 22% Approve
20%
16%
Strongly
29% Approve
20% 24%
14% 17%

SLIDE / 6

1 Tossup = +5 R PVI to +5 D PVI, Lean D = 6-10 D PVI, Lean R = 6-10 R PVI, Safe R = + 10 R PVI, Safe D = + 10 D PVI
 POLITICAL INTELLIGENCE

2018 Midterms

Trump Approval
1 What voters think about POTUS

Generic Congressional Ballot

2 What voters think about control of the House and Senate

Approval and Reelection by Incumbent

3 What voters think about key officials

Top Policy Issues

4 What voters prioritize at the polls
 2018 MIDTERMS
Generic Congressional Ballot Among All Americans
POLITICAL
INTELLIGENCE

All Voters
41% 35%
Democratic Republican
Candidate Candidate
Change since
previous month +1 0

Generic
Congressional
Ballot Democratic
Candidate
Don’t Know /
No Opinion
Republican
Candidate

Democrats 89% 9%

Independents 26% 54% 21%

Republicans 10% 87%

SLIDE / 8
 2018 MIDTERMS
Generic Congressional Ballot in Competitive Senate States
POLITICAL
INTELLIGENCE

Dem. Rep. Dem. Rep.

State State
Candidate Candidate Candidate Candidate

34% (+1)1 39% (-1)1 35% (+3) 39% (-1)

Generic 37% (0) 38% (0) 39% (0) 35% (0)

Congressional
Ballot 36% (+1) 41% (+1) 41% (+1) 36% (-1)

34% (0) 39% (+1) 31% (0) 41% (0)

37% (+1) 37% (-2) 43% (+1) 33% (0)

38% (0) 39% (+1)

SLIDE / 9

Democrat holds Senate Republican holds Senate 1 Change since previous month
seat opening in 2018 seat opening in 2018
 2018 MIDTERMS
Generic Congressional Ballot by Congressional District Competitiveness1
POLITICAL
INTELLIGENCE

Safe Districts that Districts that Safe

Democratic Lean Toss-Up Lean Republican
Districts Democratic Districts Republican Districts

23%
29%
Generic 34% 39%
45%
Congressional Republican
Ballot 22% Candidate

25%
25% Don’t Know /
25% No Opinion
25%
Democratic
Candidate
55%
46% 41% 36%
30%

SLIDE / 10

1 Tossup = +5 R PVI to +5 D PVI, Lean D = 6-10 D PVI, Lean R = 6-10 R PVI, Safe R = + 10 R PVI, Safe D = + 10 D PVI
 POLITICAL INTELLIGENCE

2018 Midterms

Trump Approval
1 What voters think about POTUS

Generic Congressional Ballot

2 What voters think about control of the House and Senate

Approval and Reelection by Incumbent

3 What voters think about key officials

Top Policy Issues

4 What voters prioritize at the polls
 2018 MIDTERMS
Approval and Reelection by Incumbent, in Competitive Senate States
POLITICAL
INTELLIGENCE
Do you approve or disapprove Do you think [Senator]
of the job [Senator] is doing? deserves reelection?

Deserves Time for

Senator Approve Disapprove Reelection New Person

Bill
Nelson 42% (-2)1 37% (+3)1 27% (-1) 52% (+2)
(D-FL)
Approval and
Joe
Reelection by Donnelly 41% (0) 35% (+1) 30% (-1) 44% (+1)
(D-IN)
Incumbent
Claire
McCaskill 39% (-1) 44% (0) 31% (+1) 52% (+1)
(D-MO)

Jon
Tester 50% (0) 36% (0) 42% (+2) 44% (0)
(D-MT)

Heidi
Heitkamp 47% (+3) 42% (-2) 39% (+4) 46% (-4)
(D-ND)

SLIDE / 12

1 Change since previous month

 2018 MIDTERMS
Approval and Reelection by Incumbent, in Competitive Senate States
POLITICAL
INTELLIGENCE
Do you approve or disapprove Do you think [Senator]
of the job [Senator] is doing? deserves reelection?

Deserves Time for

Senator Approve Disapprove Reelection New Person

Dean
Heller 36% (-1)1 42% (+2)1 26% (+2) 53% (0)
(R-NV)
Approval and
Sherrod
Reelection by Brown 45% (+1) 29% (0) 32% (-1) 41% (0)
(D-OH)
Incumbent
Bob
Casey 43% (+1) 32% (0) 32% (+1) 44% (0)
(D-PA)

Tammy
Baldwin 47% (+3) 37% (-2) 41% (+2) 43% (+1)
(D-WI)

Joe
Manchin 46% (+1) 42% (-1) 37% (+1) 48% (-1)
(D-WV)

SLIDE / 13

1 Change since previous month

 2018 MIDTERMS
Approval and Reelection by Incumbent, by Congressional District
POLITICAL
INTELLIGENCE
Competitiveness1

Safe Districts that Districts that Safe

Democratic Lean Toss-Up Lean Republican
Districts Democratic Districts Republican Districts

43% 43%
Approval and Do you approve
39%
34%
38%
34%
42%

Reelection by or disapprove
of the job
30% 31% 31% Approve

Incumbent [Representative]
is doing? Disapprove

44% 45% 43%

40% 41%
Deserves
32% 31%
Do you think 27% 29% reelection
26%
[Representative]
deserves Time for a
reelection? new person

SLIDE / 14

1 Tossup = +5 R PVI to +5 D PVI, Lean D = 6-10 D PVI, Lean R = 6-10 R PVI, Safe R = + 10 R PVI, Safe D = + 10 D PVI
 POLITICAL INTELLIGENCE

2018 Midterms

Trump Approval
1 What voters think about POTUS

Generic Congressional Ballot

2 What voters think about control of the House and Senate

Approval and Reelection by Incumbent

3 What voters think about key officials

Top Policy Issues

4 What voters prioritize at the polls
 2018 MIDTERMS
Top Policy Issues Among All Voters
POLITICAL
INTELLIGENCE

All Americans Democrats Independents Republicans

Economic Economic Economic

26% 23% 28% Security Issues 34%
Issues Issues Issues

Health Care Economic

Security Issues 21% 21% Security Issues 18% Issues
28%
Issues
Top Policy Health Care
Issues Senior's Issues 17% Senior's Issues 20% Issues
16% Senior's Issues 15%

Health Care Health Care

Issues
16% Security Issues 12% Senior's Issues 15% Issues
12%

Education Education Education Education

Issues
7% Issues
8% Issues
8% Issues
5%

Women's
Other 5% 7% Other 7% Other 3%
Issues

Women's Women's
5% Other 5% Energy Issues 5% 2%
Issues Issues

Women's
Energy Issues 4% Energy Issues 5% Issues
4% Energy Issues 2%

SLIDE / 16
 2018 MIDTERMS
Top Policy Issues in Competitive Senate States
POLITICAL
INTELLIGENCE
Arizona Florida Indiana

Security 24% Economic 25% Economic 26%

Economic 23% Security 24% Security 22%
Senior 16% Senior 18% Senior 17%
Health Care 15% Health Care 15% Health Care 17%
Education 9% Education 6% Education 6%
Other 5% Other 5% Other 5%
Top Policy Energy 4% Energy 3% Women 4%

Issues Women 4% Women 4% Energy 3%

Missouri Montana Nevada

Economic 28% Economic 28% Economic 26%

Security 19% Security 16% Security 22%
Health Care 18% Health Care 16% Senior 16%
Senior 15% Senior 16% Health Care 15%
Education 6% Other 9% Education 8%
Other 5% Education 5% Other 5%
Women 5% Energy 5% Women 4%
SLIDE / 17 Energy 4% Women 5% Energy 4%
 2018 MIDTERMS
Top Policy Issues in Competitive Senate States
POLITICAL
INTELLIGENCE
North Dakota Ohio Pennsylvania

Security 24% Economic 26% Economic 28%

Economic 23% Security 20% Security 20%
Health Care 18% Senior 19% Senior 17%
Senior 16% Health Care 17% Health Care 16%
Education 7% Education 6% Education 6%
Other 4% Women 5% Other 4%
Top Policy Women 4% Other 5% Women 4%

Issues Energy 4% Energy 3% Energy 4%

West Virginia Wisconsin

Economic 26% Economic 25%

Security 22% Health Care 19%
Senior 20% Security 18%
Health Care 16% Senior 17%
Education 5% Education 6%
Other 5% Other 5%
Energy 4% Energy 5%
SLIDE / 18 Women 4% Women 5%
 2018 MIDTERMS
Top Policy Issues by Congressional District Competitiveness1
POLITICAL
INTELLIGENCE

Safe Districts that Districts that Safe

Democratic Lean Toss-Up Lean Republican
Districts Democratic Districts Republican Districts

27% 26% 26% 26% 26% Economic Issues

Top Policy Security Issues

Issues 18% 19% 21% 22% 23% Health Care Issues

Senior’s Issues

17% 16% 16% 16% Women’s Issues

16%
Education Issues
15% 17% 17% 17% 16% Energy Issues
5% 5% 5% 4% 4% Other
8% 7% 6% 7% 7%
4% 4% 4% 4% 3%
5% 5% 5% 5% 5%

SLIDE / 19

1 Tossup = +5 R PVI to +5 D PVI, Lean D = 6-10 D PVI, Lean R = 6-10 R PVI, Safe R = + 10 R PVI, Safe D = + 10 D PVI
POLITICAL
INTELLIGENCE

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Methodology

The results are compiled from surveys with more than 352,836 registered voters across the U.S.
from May 1, 2018 to July 31, 2018. The data were weighted to approximate a target sample of
SLIDE / 20 registered voters based on age, race/ethnicity, gender, educational attainment, and region.
Respondents in each state answered questions specific to their Senators.