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马来西亚
RHB Research
技术分析 Institute Sdn Bhd
A member of the
RHB Banking Group
Company No: 233327 -M
每日交投策略
MARKET DATELINE
2010 年 10 月 5 日
市场技术解读
关键支撑水平依旧位于 1,450 点…
图 1∶
∶富时大马综合指数(
富时大马综合指数(FBM KLCI)(
)(日线图
)(日线图)
日线图) 图 2∶
∶富时大马综合指数(
富时大马综合指数(单日线图)
单日线图)
本地股市的交投指引∶
♦ 由于特定蓝筹股临尾最后一分钟遭到抛售,富时大马综合指数(FBM KLCI)周一中止其稳健的复苏走势,并以下跌收场。
♦ 此外,强大的套利压力也在午盘冲击了本地和区域股市,这主要归咎于欧洲股市在早盘陷入跌势。
技术解读∶
技术解读∶
♦ 该指数今日必须回升至 10 日移动平均线以上,以避免交投情绪转淡。
请仔细阅读位于本报告尾页的重要披露
请仔细阅读位于本报告尾页的重要披露(
本报告尾页的重要披露( IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES)
Page 1 of 6
2010 年 10 月 5 日
每日交投策略∶
每日交投策略∶
♦ 技术而言,富时综指必须捍卫 10 日移动平均线,以维护当前的乐观短期情绪。
♦ 再者,鉴于 10 日移动平均线不断走软,而短期动力指标也一直向下滑落,这或将会打击富时综指的整体技术展望。
表 1 ∶每日统计 表 2∶
∶主要海外指数及原产品
9月 9月 9月 10 月 10 月 变动 变动
收盘
股市摘要 28 日 29 日 30 日 1日 4日 本地主要指数 (点) (%))
上升股 富时大马综合指数 1,462.27 -4.05 -0.3
244 430 329 422 501
下跌股 富时大马 100 指数 9,609.85 -8.54 -0.1
493 283 399 327 295
平盘 富时大马创业板 3,979.36 28.28 0.7
289 306 280 267 258
无交易 各大海外指数
327 330 346 338 299
道琼斯工商指数 10,751.27 -78.41 -0.7
市场资本 纳斯达克指数 2,344.52 -26.23 -1.1
总成交量 标准与普尔 500 1,137.03 -9.21 -0.8
(百万股) 977 905 1,052 974 1,369
伦敦金融时报指数 5,555.97 -36.93 -0.7
总成交值 恒生指数 22,618.66 260.49 1.2
(百万令吉) 1,351 1,449 1,718 1,469 1,707 雅加达综合指数 3,569.50 22.38 0.6
东京日经 225 指数 9,381.06 -23.17 -0.2
首尔综合指数 1,879.29 2.56 0.1
外汇 上海综合指数 休市 休市
2,655.66
令吉兑美元 3.0930 3.0835 3.0835 3.0855 3.0910 曼谷综合指数 964.22 -14.36 -1.5
新加坡海峡时报指数 3,157.45 26.55 0.8
资料来源∶RHBInvest &彭博社( Bloomberg)
台湾加权指数 8,246.10 1.92 0.0
印度 Sensex 指数 20,475.73 30.69 0.2
主要原产品
纽约商品交易所
(NYMEX)原油期货
(每桶/美元) 81.47 -0.11 -0.1
MDEX 原棕油 – 第 3
个月 (每公吨/令吉) 2,666.00 -67.00 -2.5
美国利率 目前 最新
10 年 9 月
隔夜联邦基金利率 0-0.25% 无变动
21 日
下个联邦公开市场操作
2010 年 11 月 2 日-3 日
委员会(FOMC)会议
Page 2 of 6
2010 年 10 月 5 日
图 3∶
∶吉隆坡综合期货指数(
吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)(
)(日线图
)(日线图)
日线图) 图 4∶
∶吉隆坡综合期货指数(
吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)(
)(单日线图
)(单日线图)
单日线图)
技术解读∶
技术解读∶
♦ 受到现货市场出人意表的临尾跌势,以及欧洲股市早盘的跌势所冲击,本地期货指数周一临尾向下反转。
♦ 不过,如果动力解读今日无法改善的话,那么现有的正面短期展望将面对风险。
♦ 有鉴于此,它必须迅速从该移动平均线回弹,以延伸近日的复苏走势。
每日交投策略∶
每日交投策略∶
♦ 昨日的临尾回调确实令人感到失望,基于这暗示卖压活动可能会重现。
表 3∶∶吉隆坡综合期货指数(
吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI))收盘
月份)
月份
FKLI (月份 变动
合约 开盘 最高 最低 收盘 (点) 结算 成交量 未平仓宗数
10 年 10 月 1473.00 1478.50 1463.00 1464.50 -8.50 1464.50 5686 20352
10 年 11 月 1474.00 1478.00 1464.00 1464.00 -9.00 1464.00 99 0
10 年 12 月 1471.50 1478.00 1463.50 1464.00 -9.00 1464.00 64 395
11 年 3 月 1475.00 1475.00 1465.00 1465.00 -7.00 1465.00 4 153
Page 3 of 6
2010 年 10 月 5 日
图 5∶
∶美国道琼斯工商指数(
美国道琼斯工商指数(DJIA)
)(日线图
日线图)
日线图 图 6∶
∶美国纳斯达克指数(
美国纳斯达克指数( Nasdaq)
)(日线图
日线图)
日线图
美国股市的交投指引∶
美国股市的交投指引∶
♦ 华尔街股市周一普遍收黑,基于投资者趁着公司财报季节于本周正式开始前纷纷锁定利润。
♦ 此外,投资者也对一些证券商下修一些股项的做法感到紧张,而当中股项包括了美国铝业(Alcoa)(-2.5%)和微软
(Microsoft)(-1.9%)。正当美国铝业即将在周四公布业绩之前,德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)宣布调低该铝生产商
的评级至“卖出”。至于高盛(Goldman Sachs)也放弃对微软,JC Penney 和 Macy’s 的“买入”建议。
♦ 除此外,有关美国司法部对美国运通(American Express)提出反垄断诉讼的报道也影响了交投情绪。美国运通是道指最
大的拖累股,共急泻了 6.5%。不过,其对手万事达卡(MasterCard 和 Visa 股价的跌势却收窄,归功于这两家信用卡公
司与美国政府达成协议,以解决其诉讼。
技术解读∶
技术解读∶
♦ 技术而言,从它划出一根利淡黑烛看来,加上短期动力指标也向下转低,这显示今日将会出现更多卖压。
♦ 虽然道指如今在近期进一步回调至 21 日移动平均线的风险已升高,但我们相信该移动平均线将能维护近日的上升趋势。
♦ 在上涨方面,10,850 点顽强阻力线将会继续限制其上扬动力。
Page 4 of 6
2010 年 10 月 5 日
每日技术焦点∶
每日技术焦点∶
图 7∶
∶ 地不佬(
地不佬( Tebrau)(日线图
)(日线图)
日线图) 图 8∶
∶ 地不佬(
地不佬(单日线图)
单日线图)
技术解读∶
技术解读∶
♦ 10 日移动平均线(
日移动平均线(10-day SMA): RM0.7635
♦ 40 日移动平均线(
日移动平均线(40-day SMA): RM0.7109
Page 5 of 6
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
This report has been prepared by RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd (RHBRI) and is for private circulation only to clients of RHBRI and RHB Investment Bank Berhad
(previously known as RHB Sakura Merchant Bankers Berhad). It is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. The
opinions and information contained herein are based on generally available data believed to be reliable and are subject to change without notice, and may differ or
be contrary to opinions expressed by other business units within the RHB Group as a result of using different assumptions and criteria. This report is not to be
construed as an offer, invitation or solicitation to buy or sell the securities covered herein. RHBRI does not warrant the accuracy of anything stated herein in any
manner whatsoever and no reliance upon such statement by anyone shall give rise to any claim whatsoever against RHBRI. RHBRI and/or its associated persons
may from time to time have an interest in the securities mentioned by this report.
This report does not provide individually tailored investment advice. It has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives
of persons who receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. RHBRI recommends that investors independently evaluate
particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial adviser. The appropriateness of a particular investment or
strategy will depend on an investor’s individual circumstances and objectives. Neither RHBRI, RHB Group nor any of its affiliates, employees or agents accepts
any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of this report.
RHBRI and the Connected Persons (the “RHB Group”) are engaged in securities trading, securities brokerage, banking and financing activities as well as providing
investment banking and financial advisory services. In the ordinary course of its trading, brokerage, banking and financing activities, any member of the RHB
Group may at any time hold positions, and may trade or otherwise effect transactions, for its own account or the accounts of customers, in debt or equity
securities or loans of any company that may be involved in this transaction.
“Connected Persons” means any holding company of RHBRI, the subsidiaries and subsidiary undertaking of such a holding company and the respective directors,
officers, employees and agents of each of them. Investors should assume that the “Connected Persons” are seeking or will seek investment banking or other
services from the companies in which the securities have been discussed/covered by RHBRI in this report or in RHBRI’s previous reports.
This report has been prepared by the research personnel of RHBRI. Facts and views presented in this report have not been reviewed by, and may not reflect
information known to, professionals in other business areas of the “Connected Persons,” including investment banking personnel.
The research analysts, economists or research associates principally responsible for the preparation of this research report have received compensation based
upon various factors, including quality of research, investor client feedback, stock picking, competitive factors and firm revenues.
Technical Recommendation:
Trading Buy = Short-term positive opportunity spotted. It is an aggressive trading recommendation with a book to sellers’ price for short-term technical upside.
Bargain Buy = Short-term positive but technical signals have yet to trigger a rally. Traders can park and queue for their desired entry level within a small range.
Buy on Weakness = Short- to Medium-term positiveness anticipated, but technical readings are still negative. Traders can pick-up the stock for future rally.
Sell on Strength = Short-term momentum still positive, Traders are advice to lock in profit base on current strength.
Take Profit = Short-term target achieved. Traders are advice to exit before the technical readings turn bearish.
Avoid = Risky situation in the short-term and high volatility expected on the share price. Traders’ best strategy is staying away until it stabilises.
Technical recommendations are generally short-term in nature and may differ from RHBRI’s equity fundamental view and recommendation on the same company.
RHBRI is a participant of the CMDF-Bursa Research Scheme and will receive compensation for the participation. Additional information on recommended
securities, subject to the duties of confidentiality, will be made available upon request.
This report may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without the written permission of RHBRI and RHBRI accepts no liability whatsoever for the
actions of third parties in this respect.
Page 6 of 6