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马来西亚
RHB Research
技术分析 Institute Sdn Bhd
A member of the
RHB Banking Group
Company No: 233327 -M
每日交投策略
MARKET DATELINE
2010 年 10 月 18 日
市场技术解读
关键扶持线落在 10 日移动平均线…
图 1∶
∶富时大马综合指数(
富时大马综合指数(FBM KLCI)(
)(日线图
)(日线图)
日线图) 图 2∶
∶富时大马综合指数(
富时大马综合指数(单日线图)
单日线图)
本地股市的交投指引∶
♦ 此外,尽管上海综合指数狂升超过 3%,但区域股市还是刮起抛风。结果,这也进一步打击本地交投士气。
技术解读∶
技术解读∶
♦ 富时综指在套利活动于周五加剧下又再化出另一根阴烛。
♦ 加上短期动力指标也进一步往下转低,我们认为,该指数将在今日进一步陷入套利走势。
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请仔细阅读位于本报告尾页的重要披露(
请仔细阅读位于本报告尾页的重要披露( IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES)
2010 年 10 月 18 日
每日交投策略∶
每日交投策略∶
♦ 从它形成第 2 根阴烛和技术解读转弱看来,该指数应会继续在本周初回软。
♦ 可是,我们继续保持乐观,并预料趁低吸购活动将重返至 10 日移动平均线。
表 1 ∶每日统计 表 2∶
∶主要海外指数及原产品
10 月 10 月 10 月 10 月 10 月 变动 变动
收盘
股市摘要 11 日 12 日 13 日 14 日 15 日 本地主要指数 (点) (%))
上升股 富时大马综合指数 1,489.86 -6.52 -0.4
479 327 576 348 324
下跌股 富时大马 100 指数 9,815.67 -31.06 -0.3
287 420 236 455 405
平盘 富时大马创业板 4,322.77 142.00 3.4
293 306 356 302 341
无交易 各大海外指数
296 308 296 260 296
道琼斯工商指数 11,062.78 -31.79 -0.3
市场资本 纳斯达克指数 2,468.77 33.39 1.4
总成交量 标准与普尔 500 1,176.19 2.38 0.2
(百万股) 1,094 1,169 1,200 1,274 1,021
伦敦金融时报指数 5,703.37 -23.84 -0.4
总成交值 恒生指数 23,757.63 -94.54 -0.4
(百万令吉) 1,715 1,901 2,027 2,042 1,647 雅加达综合指数 3,597.03 -21.45 -0.6
东京日经 225 指数 9,500.25 -83.26 -0.9
首尔综合指数 1,902.29 2.53 0.1
外汇 上海综合指数 2,971.16 91.52 3.2
令吉兑美元 3.0995 3.1080 3.0925 3.0820 3.0800 曼谷综合指数 997.15 3.43 0.3
新加坡海峡时报指数 3,204.27 9.25 0.3
资料来源∶RHBInvest &彭博社( Bloomberg)
台湾加权指数 8,205.30 -10.15 -0.1
印度 Sensex 指数 20,125.05 -372.59 -1.8
主要原产品
纽约商品交易所
(NYMEX)原油期货
(每桶/美元) 81.25 -1.44 -1.7
MDEX 原棕油 – 第 3
个月 (每公吨/令吉) 2,930.00 14.00 0.5
美国利率 目前 最新
10 年 9 月
隔夜联邦基金利率 0-0.25% 无变动
21 日
下个联邦公开市场操作
2010 年 11 月 2 日-3 日
委员会(FOMC)会议
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2010 年 10 月 18 日
图 3∶
∶吉隆坡综合期货指数(
吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)(
)(日线图
)(日线图)
日线图) 图 4∶
∶吉隆坡综合期货指数(
吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)(
)(单日线图
)(单日线图)
单日线图)
技术解读∶
技术解读∶
♦ 因此,我们预期动力指标将会在近期转软,然后才有望显现技术反弹的迹象。
每日交投策略∶
每日交投策略∶
♦ 不过,他们应保持乐观,并在期指显现复苏讯号时,必须准备反手做多。
表 3∶∶吉隆坡综合期货指数(
吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI))收盘
月份)
月份
FKLI (月份 变动
合约 开盘 最高 最低 收盘 (点) 结算 成交量 未平仓宗数
10 年 10 月 1491.00 1492.00 1481.50 1485.00 -7.00 1485.00 4696 22619
10 年 11 月 1491.50 1491.50 1482.00 1488.00 -4.50 1488.00 393 245
10 年 12 月 1486.50 1491.00 1483.00 1485.50 -6.50 1485.50 72 377
11 年 3 月 1485.00 1485.00 1485.00 1485.00 -7.00 1486.00 1 128
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2010 年 10 月 18 日
图 5∶
∶美国道琼斯工商指数(
美国道琼斯工商指数(DJIA)
)(日线图
日线图)
日线图 图 6∶
∶美国纳斯达克指数(
美国纳斯达克指数( Nasdaq)
)(日线图
日线图)
日线图
美国股市的交投指引∶
美国股市的交投指引∶
♦ 大多数美股周五收高,主要归功于科技股的涨势和货币宽松政策有望落实成功抵消了有关银行的止赎做法和消费者信心下跌
的忧虑。
♦ 市场开市时便以上升格局开高,基于联邦储备局(Federal Reserve)主席贝南克表示,联储局“有理由采取进一步措施”
以振兴经济,鉴于高失业率和低通膨。与此同时,随着谷歌(Google)在标青业绩的激励下猛涨 11%,这也成功启动一波
科技股涨潮,从而进一步刺激交投情绪。
技术解读∶
技术解读∶
♦ 此外,短期动力解读也继续走软,而这进一步导致它在今日回调的风险也有所增加。
♦ 只可惜,随着它取得一根潜在的“上吊线”(hangman),它可能将在今日回调。
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2010 年 10 月 18 日
每日技术焦点∶
每日技术焦点∶
图 7∶
∶亚通(
亚通( Axiata)(日线图
)(日线图)
日线图) 图 8∶
∶ 亚通(
亚通(单日线图)
单日线图)
在发动技术复苏走势前,
在发动技术复苏走势前,它料将在移动平均线筑起一道扶持点…
它料将在移动平均线筑起一道扶持点
♦ 随着亚通在 2010 年 2 月成功破除 3.70 令吉强力阻力线后,它便从 2010 年 3 月至 7 月间陷困于 3.70 令吉至 4.00 令吉
之间的交投波幅内。
♦ 从它形成一根阴烛和动力指标向下转低看来,该股或将在本周初进一步下跌。
技术解读∶
技术解读∶
♦ 10 日移动平均线(
日移动平均线(10-day SMA): RM4.517
♦ 40 日移动平均线(
日移动平均线(40-day SMA): RM4.476
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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
This report has been prepared by RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd (RHBRI) and is for private circulation only to clients of RHBRI and RHB Investment Bank Berhad
(previously known as RHB Sakura Merchant Bankers Berhad). It is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. The
opinions and information contained herein are based on generally available data believed to be reliable and are subject to change without notice, and may differ or
be contrary to opinions expressed by other business units within the RHB Group as a result of using different assumptions and criteria. This report is not to be
construed as an offer, invitation or solicitation to buy or sell the securities covered herein. RHBRI does not warrant the accuracy of anything stated herein in any
manner whatsoever and no reliance upon such statement by anyone shall give rise to any claim whatsoever against RHBRI. RHBRI and/or its associated persons
may from time to time have an interest in the securities mentioned by this report.
This report does not provide individually tailored investment advice. It has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives
of persons who receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. RHBRI recommends that investors independently evaluate
particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial adviser. The appropriateness of a particular investment or
strategy will depend on an investor’s individual circumstances and objectives. Neither RHBRI, RHB Group nor any of its affiliates, employees or agents accepts
any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of this report.
RHBRI and the Connected Persons (the “RHB Group”) are engaged in securities trading, securities brokerage, banking and financing activities as well as providing
investment banking and financial advisory services. In the ordinary course of its trading, brokerage, banking and financing activities, any member of the RHB
Group may at any time hold positions, and may trade or otherwise effect transactions, for its own account or the accounts of customers, in debt or equity
securities or loans of any company that may be involved in this transaction.
“Connected Persons” means any holding company of RHBRI, the subsidiaries and subsidiary undertaking of such a holding company and the respective directors,
officers, employees and agents of each of them. Investors should assume that the “Connected Persons” are seeking or will seek investment banking or other
services from the companies in which the securities have been discussed/covered by RHBRI in this report or in RHBRI’s previous reports.
This report has been prepared by the research personnel of RHBRI. Facts and views presented in this report have not been reviewed by, and may not reflect
information known to, professionals in other business areas of the “Connected Persons,” including investment banking personnel.
The research analysts, economists or research associates principally responsible for the preparation of this research report have received compensation based
upon various factors, including quality of research, investor client feedback, stock picking, competitive factors and firm revenues.
Technical Recommendation:
Trading Buy = Short-term positive opportunity spotted. It is an aggressive trading recommendation with a book to sellers’ price for short-term technical upside.
Bargain Buy = Short-term positive but technical signals have yet to trigger a rally. Traders can park and queue for their desired entry level within a small range.
Buy on Weakness = Short- to Medium-term positiveness anticipated, but technical readings are still negative. Traders can pick-up the stock for future rally.
Sell on Strength = Short-term momentum still positive, Traders are advice to lock in profit base on current strength.
Take Profit = Short-term target achieved. Traders are advice to exit before the technical readings turn bearish.
Avoid = Risky situation in the short-term and high volatility expected on the share price. Traders’ best strategy is staying away until it stabilises.
Technical recommendations are generally short-term in nature and may differ from RHBRI’s equity fundamental view and recommendation on the same company.
RHBRI is a participant of the CMDF-Bursa Research Scheme and will receive compensation for the participation. Additional information on recommended
securities, subject to the duties of confidentiality, will be made available upon request.
This report may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without the written permission of RHBRI and RHBRI accepts no liability whatsoever for the
actions of third parties in this respect.
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