Réchauffement climatique: le Soleil en cause? Is the Sun causing global warming? Ang Araw ba ang sanhi ng pag-init ng daigdig?

N’en déplaise aux climatosceptiques, les Because of the skepticism of some Dahil sa hindi paniniwala ng ilang mga

données recueillies à ce jour montrent que la part du scientists, data was collected and thus was discovered siyentipiko, nangulekta ng data at dahil dito,

Soleil dans le réchauffement actuel est négligeable. that the role of the Sun in global warming is natuklasan na bale-wala ang papel ng Araw sa pag-

Mais les mécanismes internes de notre étoile sont negligible. However, the internal mechanisms of our init ng daigdig. Gayunpaman, hindi pa din lubos na

encore largement incompris. star are still widely misunderstood. naiintindihan ang panloob na mekanismo ng ating

bituin.

Et si c’était lui ? Dans le contexte du And if it was him? In the context of global Karaniwang sinisisi ang Araw sa konteksto

réchauffement actuel de la Terre, le Soleil est warming, the Sun is usually blamed. Some scientists ng pag-init ng daigdig. Ngunit siya nga ba talaga ang

régulièrement pointé du doigt. Certains scientifiques called “climate skeptics” are wondering if the sanhi? Pinagdududahan ng ilang siyentipikong

dits « climatosceptiques », se demandent notamment changes in its luminosity really explain the elevation tinatawag na “climate skeptics” kung talagang ang

si les variations de sa luminosité n’expliqueraient pas of temperature observed for over a century. mga pagbabago sa kanyang kakinangan ang dahilan

l’élévation de température observée depuis un siècle. ng pagtaas ng temperaturang naobserbahan nang

nakaraang siglo.

Que le rayonnement solaire influence notre Walang nagdududa sa impluwensya ng solar

No one doubts that solar radiation influences
climat, nul n’en doute. La question est toutefois de radiation sa ating klima. Ang tanong: gaano kalaki
our climate. The issue however is to know how
savoir dans quelles proportions. Selon les conclusions ang impluwensyang ito? Ayon sa mga pinakabagong
much. According to the findings of the latest report
du dernier rapport du Groupe intergouvernemental ulat ng Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
d’experts sur l’évolution du climat (GIEC), publié en (IPCC) na inilathala noong 2007, lumilitaw na tunay
(IPCC), published in 2007, it appears that the solar
2007, il apparaît que la composante solaire dans le na maliit lamang ang papel ng Araw sa pag-init ng
component in global warming is very small: only
réchauffement est très minoritaire. De l’ordre de 10 daigdig: mga 10% lang ayon sa isang kamakailan-
about 10% according to a recent publication.
% d’après une publication récente. lamang inilathalang publikasyon.
Lutte idéologique
Pourquoi une telle polémique dans ce cas ?
A n’en pas douter, les enjeux socio-économiques
tendent à transformer ce débat scientifique complexe
en une lutte idéologique médiatisée, occultant la
faiblesse de certains raisonnements. Mais il faut bien
admettre que la mesure des variations de l’activité du
Soleil n’est pas une mince affaire.
En fusionnant les données d’au moins six
expériences spatiales, trois équipes concurrentes,
suisse, belge et américaine, ont par exemple obtenu
trois reconstitutions de l’éclairement solaire
différentes ! Chaque instrument ayant sa propre
dérive, et chaque équipe sa façon de la corriger.
En outre, les premières mesures
systématiques du rayonnement solaire n’ont débuté
qu’en 1978, avec les premières missions spatiales
conçues dans ce but. A plus long terme, sur quelques
siècles, la reconstruction de l’histoire
l’éclairement solaire est plus difficile, et passe par
des indicateurs indirects. Ce sont entre autres les
isotopes cosmogéniques, ces atomes comme le
Ideological struggle
Why such a controversy in this case?
Undoubtedly, the socio-economic issues tend to turn
this complex scientific debate into a publicized
ideological struggle, obscuring the weakness of
certain reasoning. But we must admit that the extent
of changes in solar activity is not an easy task.
By merging data from at least
experiments in space, three competing teams, Swiss,
Belgian and American, for example, have obtained
three different reconstructions of solar irradiance!
Since each instrument has its own variation, each
team’s way to correct it also varies.
In addition, the first systematic
measurements of solar radiation only began in 1978
de
with the first space mission designed for this purpose.
In the longer term, a few centuries, the reconstruction
of the history of the solar illumination is more
difficult and requires indirect indicators. These are
among others, cosmogenic isotopes, atoms such as
carbon-14, beryllium-10 and chlorine-36, whose
Alitang ideolohikal
Bakit may ganitong kontrobersiya sa kasong
ito? Hindi maikakaila na ang kumplikadong debateng
ito ay madalas nagiging isinapublikong alitang
ideolohikal na siya namang nagtatakip ng kahinaan
ng ilang mga pangangatwiran. Ngunit dapat nating
aminin na hindi isang madaling gawain ang pagsukat
six sa lawak ng mga pagbabago sa aktibidad ng Araw.
Halimbawa, sa pagsasama-sama ng data
mula sa hindi bababa sa anim na eksperimento sa
kalawakan, nakakuha ng tatlong iba't ibang
reconstructions ng solar irradiance ang tatlong
koponang nagkukumpetensya, Swiss, Belgian at
Amerikano. Dahil may sariling mga pagkakaiba-iba
ang bawat instrumento, iba’t-iba rin ang paraan ng
bawat koponan sa pagwasto nito.
Bukod dito, noong 1978 lamang nagsimula
ang sistematikong pagsukat sa solar radiation
kasabay ng unang misyon sa kalawakan na dinisenyo

para dito. Mas mahirap ang pagbuo ng kasaysayan ng

pagsikat ng araw ng ilang mga siglo na

nangangailangan ng mga indirektang indicator. Ilang

halimbawa nito ay ang mga cosmogenic isotopes,

carbone-14, le béryllium-10 ou le chlore-36, dont la production in the atmosphere depends on the Sun’s mga atom tulad ng carbon-14, beryllium-10 at

production dans l’atmophère dépend du champ and on the Earth’s internal magnetic field. chlorine-36. Dumedepende ang produksyon ng mga

magnétique du Soleil et du champ magnétique ito sa atmospera sa magnetic field ng Araw at ng

d’origine interne de la Terre. Mundo.

Rôle des ultraviolets Role of ultraviolet Ang papel ng ultraviolet

Mais l’éclairement du Soleil n’est pas le seul But the illumination of the Sun is not the Hindi lamang ang kinang ng sikat ng araw

paramètre à analyser. Il faut en effet prendre en only parameter to analyze. We must take into account ang kailangang analisahin. Kailangan ding isaalang-

compte toute la subtilité du spectre lumineux du all the subtlety of the light spectrum of the Sun. alang ang kapitaganan ng light spectrum ng Araw.

Soleil. Les rayons ultraviolets, par exemple, ionisent Ultraviolet rays, for example, ionize the upper Halimbawa, ina-ionize ng mga ultraviolet rays ang

la haute atmosphère, entraînent la production d’ozone atmosphere, resulting in the production of ozone in itaas na atmospera na nagreresulta sa pagkabuo ng

dans la stratosphère et provoquent des réactions the stratosphere and causing chemical reactions ozone sa stratospera at siya namang pinagmumulan

chimiques elles-mêmes productrices de chaleur. Pour which then produce heat. However, its effects have ng mga reaksyong kemikal na lumilikha ng init.

autant, on ne sait pas encore quantifier ces effets au not yet been quantified at ground level. Gayunpaman, hindi pa na-quantify ang epekto nito sa

niveau du sol. antas ng lupa.

Une autre voie consiste à comprendre Another way is to understand the origin of Isa pang paraan ay ang pag-unawa sa

l’origine des fluctuations de notre étoile. Certes, la the fluctuations of our star. Certainly, knowledge of pinagmulan ng mga pagbabago ng ating bituin. Tiyak

connaissance du Soleil a énormément avancé, en the Sun has made enormous progress, especially na malayo na ang narating ng kaalaman natin sa

particulier grâce au satellite européen SOHO, mais through the European satellite SOHO, but no Araw lalo na sa tulong ng Europeong satelayt na

aucun modèle standard n’est pour l’heure capable de standard model is at present able to generate itself the SOHO, subalit hanggang ngayon, wala pa rin tayong
générer de lui-même le cycle d’activité solaire de solar cycle of eleven years and its spots, nor variation standard na modelo na kayang mag-generate sa sarili

onze ans et ses taches, ni la variation de 0,1 % du of 0.1% of the radiation observed. niya ng siklo ng aktibidad ng Araw at ang kanyang

rayonnement observée. mga spots sa loob ng labing-isang taon o ng 0.1% ng

na-obserbahang radyasyon.

Ce constat reflète également un autre écueil. This finding also reflects another pitfall. So Sinasalamin ng pagkatuklas nito ang isa

Jusqu’ici, la modélisation du Soleil a en effet été far, modeling the Sun has been made by two pang patibong. Hanggang ngayon, hiwalay na

réalisée par deux communautés d’astrophysiciens qui communities of astrophysicists who did not interact ginagawa ng dalawang komunidad ng mga

n’interagissaient pas du tout. D’un côté ceux qui font at all. On one side are those who use a model based astrophysicist ang pag-aaral sa pagmomodelo ng

appel à un modèle fondé sur la production et la on the production and propagation of energy. On the Araw. Sa isang banda, ang mga gumagamit ng

propagation de l’énergie. De l’autre, ceux qui other, those who seek to understand the surface modelong base sa produksyon at propagasyon ng

cherchent à comprendre les phénomènes de surface phenomena associated with fluctuations in the enerhiya. Sa kabilang banda naman, ang mga

liés aux fluctuations du champ magnétique externe. external magnetic field. But both approaches need nagnanais na umunawa sa mga fluctuation ng surface

Or les deux approches ont besoin l’une de l’autre. each other. phenomena kaugnay ng external magnetic field.

D’ici cinq ans, nous devrions toutefois être Within five years, however, we should be Gayunpaman, sa loob ng limang taon, dapat

en mesure d’ajuster les modèles grâce aux prochaines able to fit the models through the next space kaya na nating maihusto ang mga modelo sa tulong

expériences spatiales. En attendant, la communauté experiments. Meanwhile, the scientific community ng mga susunod na eksperimento sa kalawakan.

scientifique ne pourra pas vraiment quantifier toute cannot really quantify any influence of the Sun on the Habang naghihintay rito, hindi pwedeng i-quantify

l’influence du Soleil sur la Terre et prétendre la Earth and claim to predict it. It is therefore urgent to ng mga siyentipiko ang impluwensya ng Araw sa

prédire. Il y a donc urgence à fournir ces provide this information to silence the speech Mundo at hulaan ito. Samakatuwid, mahalagang

informations pour faire taire les discours simplistes et simplistic and the conservative. maibigay na ang impormasyong ito upang

conservateurs. mapatahimik lubos na pinasimpleng eksplanasyon at

“La Recherche”. ang mga konserbatibo.

http://www.larecherche.fr/content/recherche/article?id=24414