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35,4 Globalization, growth, and
poverty: the missing link
Ibrahim F. Akoum
226 Arab Monetary Fund, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Abstract
Purpose – To review the literature on the relationship between growth, globalization, and poverty,
and present empirical evidence on whether countries registering high growth rates do necessarily
succeed in reducing the incidence of poverty.
Design/methodology/approach – Notwithstanding data and methodological problems cited in the
literature, this paper makes an effort to quantitatively examine the issue of statistical correlation
between growth and poverty variables, through regressing the share of population in poverty on
growth rates of countries for which data is available from World Bank surveys.
Findings – The paper concludes that countries registering high growth rates do not necessarily
succeed in reducing poverty, thereby, holding that a wide-ranging policy approach could be more
effective in poverty reduction than the broad-based growth policy approach.
Originality/value – The debate among academics and practitioners over the causal relationship
between growth and poverty has not rendered any conclusive evidence that growth is a sufficient
condition for reducing poverty, hence the difficulty facing policy makers on the most effective
approach for poverty reduction. This paper is an attempt to contribute to this debate and assessing
whether to embrace the broad-based growth or pro-poor growth policies.
Keywords Poverty, Globalization, Economic growth
Paper type Research paper
Introduction
Poverty amid plenty is the world’s greatest challenge (James D. Wolfensohn, Former World
Bank President).
Eradicating poverty is an ethical, social, political and economic imperative of humankind
(UN General Assembly, 1996).
Many first-rate globalizers have fifth-rate records on poverty reduction (Watkins, 2002).
Growth and poverty reduction are supposedly the ultimate goals of all development
endeavors. International development, financial, and trade organizations, as well as
practitioners and academics in this field attest to this assertion. For example, the World
Bank holds that its mission is to fight poverty and put it at the center of all the work it
undertakes (World Bank, 2001, p. v). On its part, the World Trade Organization (WTO,
2005) contends that its goal is to improve the welfare of the peoples of the member
countries, through promoting trade liberalization, the result of which is a more
prosperous, peaceful, and accountable economic world.
Even the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which is supposedly a monetary rather
International Journal of Social than a development institution, has commenced actively working toward poverty
Economics reduction in the past few years, through the provision of financial support via its
Vol. 35 No. 4, 2008
pp. 226-238 concessional lending facility, the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF), and
q Emerald Group Publishing Limited
0306-8293
debt relief under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative.
DOI 10.1108/03068290810854529 In most low-income countries, IMF’s support is underpinned by Poverty Reduction
Strategy Papers (PRSP), which are prepared by country authorities to describe a Globalization,
comprehensive framework that is being implemented to promote growth and reduce growth, and
poverty in the country (IMF, 2006).
As is the case in most economic fields of study, there have been varying poverty
assessments of the progress made so far on poverty eradication, and of the adequacy of
varying approaches advocated by academics and practitioners towards achieving this
goal. The literature is ample with studies supporting both differing schools of thought. 227
Yet, there is limited scientific consensus on the causes and the appropriate policies
needed to help achieve growth and poverty reduction (Bird, 2004). This paper reviews
some of the literature and empirical research on this subject and presents quantitative
evidence that growth by itself is not a sufficient condition for poverty alleviation.
The paper will present in the next section a quick overview of the contrasting claims
on the progress in poverty reduction. It will then present the broad-based growth and
pro-poor growth approaches to poverty, followed by a section containing a quantitative
analysis of the causal relationship between growth and poverty. The paper concludes
with some policy implications.
Beyond statistics
These essential arguments with respect to just how much poverty has been reduced
have been associated with equally vital discussions on what economic policies are most
effective in combating poverty and achieving the MDGs goal of halving extreme
poverty by 2015. There are primarily two main strands of thought, one of which
presents globalization and economic growth as the ultimate answer for poverty
reduction, while the other contends that growth alone has not been a panacea.
It would be expedient here to emphasize the fact that both sides acknowledge the
shortcomings of the data, statistics, and methodologies used and that underpin their
policy inferences, hence the need for a more focused approach on such an important
matter. And regardless of the various statistics on the number of people still in poverty,
all agree that more ought to be done in this regard. Eradicating poverty is an ethical,
social, political and economic imperative of humankind (UN General Assembly, 1996).
It is only in this spirit that the issue of poverty eradication can be adequately tackled,
for economic theory alone can neither explain nor come to grips with poverty and
inequality. It is not simply scarcity of resources that is plaguing the poor, but it is
rather the misuse of resources and their improper distribution.
Nevertheless, the scope of this paper is limited to the economic aspect of poverty
alleviation, in particular, the forces of globalization and growth, with regard to their
impact on poverty.
Methodology
It is expedient at the outset to lay emphasis on the intricate conceptual and
methodological problems, as well as data limitations confronting researchers and
statisticians in their attempts to devise estimates of the number of people below
poverty lines. The significance of this issue stems from the fact that it greatly
influences the researchers’ inferences and policy recommendation. Ravallion (2003)
attributes the differing views in this debate to differences in the concepts and
definitions used, as well as differences in data sources and measurement assumptions.
For instance, the quality of poverty estimates reported in the WDR 2000/2001, was
questioned by many researchers. For example, (Pogge and Reddy, 2006) contended that
the bank’s estimates of the extent, distribution and trend of global income poverty are
neither meaningful nor reliable and that the systematic distortions introduced in the
measurement methodology likely leads to a large understatement of the extent of
global income poverty and to an incorrect inferences that it has declined. Dollar and
Kraay (2001, p. 27) admit that there are substantial difficulties in comparing income
distribution data across countries, along with a variety of econometric difficulties.
Milanovic (2002) presents similar difficulties. Arguing that world poverty may or may
not have increased since the 1990 and that this assessment is critically dependent on
the assumptions made, Reddy and Minoiu (2006) conclusions highlight the importance
of improving global poverty statistics.
Notwithstanding data and methodological problems, this paper makes an effort to
answer some questions related to the issue of correlation between growth and poverty
variables. In particular, I will investigate the patterns of poverty incidence and GDP
growth by answering the following three questions:
(1) Do countries with higher real GDP growth rates have lower shares of
population in poverty than countries that register negative or low growth rates?
(2) Do countries that register real GDP growth rates reduce the share of population
in poverty over time?
(3) Does economic growth impact urban and rural poverty differently?
The evidence presented in this study indicates that the answer for the three above
stated questions is negative.
IJSE As shown in Figure 1, I regressed the share of population in poverty on growth rates
35,4 in countries for which data are available for both variables. The results did not show
any evidence that countries with higher GDP growth rates have lower percentages of
the population living in poverty. In this exercise, I used the poverty data reported in the
world development indicators (WDI) of the World Development Report 2000/2001,
which summarize the results of surveys conducted to measure the share of the
232 population living below the national poverty line. And since poverty surveys for
different countries have been conducted at different years, I regressed the share of
population living below poverty in each particular country on the average annual GDP
growth of the country during the last five years preceding the year in which the
poverty survey had been conducted. Gross domestic product data series was obtained
from the online database of the WDI of the World Bank.
The results indicate that many countries with relatively high average annual GDP
growth rates have had relatively higher shares of the population in poverty than many
countries with low growth rates or even countries that registered significant decline in
gross domestic product. For instance, countries like India, Honduras, Malawi, Niger,
Vietnam, Guatemala, Lesotho, Nepal, and El Salvador registered relatively high
average annual GDP growth rates ranging between around 3.5 percent (Niger) and
6.9 percent (Vietnam), while the share of population in poverty in these countries was
high with a range between 41 percent (India) and 63 percent (Niger).
By contrast, countries like Ukraine, Russia, Moldova, Estonia, and Belarus with GDP
declining at an average rate ranging between 7.4 percent (Estonia) and 16.7 percent
(Ukraine) have much lower shares of population in poverty such as 31.7 percent in
Ukraine and as low as 8.9 percent in Estonia.
Likewise, Figures 2 and 3 show a similar pattern in the rural and urban areas,
showing that economies with higher growth rates do not have lower shares of
population in poverty in rural or urban areas.
R sq 0.005
80
70
% of Population in Poverty
60
50
40
7
30
20
10
Figure 1.
GDP growth and share 0
–20 –10 0 10
of population in poverty
GDP Growth
R sq 0.007 Globalization,
90
growth, and
poverty
% of Rural Population in Poverty
233
40
Figure 2.
–15 –5 5 15 GDP growth
–10
and urban poverty
GDP Growth
R sq 0.007
90
% of Rural Population in Poverty
40
Figure 3.
–15 –5 5 15 GDP growth
–10
and rural poverty
GDP Growth
Regarding the question of whether countries that register GDP growth rates tend to
witness reduction in the share of population in poverty over time, Figure 4 shows that
there is no indication that this is the case. Using the World Development Report
2000/2001 data on poverty for countries for which two poverty surveys are available,
I plotted each country’s average annual GDP growth rate registered between the two
surveys against the percentage point change of population in poverty. The results of
this exercise show that in some countries growth has been associated with a reduction
in the share of population in poverty, while in others growth has been associated with
an increase in the share of population in poverty.
IJSE 20
% GDP Growth
35,4 Percentage points change in people in poverty
15
10
234
5
0
Ba ent a
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ng ina
Ca desh
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H Rep
H uras
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Figure 4. –5
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reduction
–10
For example, as shown in Table I, in Bangladesh two surveys were conducted the first
of which in 1990-1991 and the second in 1995-1996. Despite the fact that real average
annual GDP growth rate was about 4.6 percent during the period between the two
surveys (1990-1996), the share of population below national poverty line rose
drastically from 24.7 percent to 35.6, that is nearly 11 percentage points higher in
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