Upstream forcing of the Gulf of Maine

ecosystem
Andrew J. Pershing
University of Maine School of Marine Sciences
Gulf of Maine Research Institute
 Climate Change
Future Precipitation Change

1850 1900 1950 2000

• “losses from the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica have very likely
contributed to sea level rise over 1993 to 2003”
• “Changes in precipitation and evaporation over the oceans are suggested by
freshening of mid and high latitude waters together with increased salinity in
low latitude waters.”

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Climate Change in North Atlantic

• 1990s freshening likely due to changes in Arctic

3
 Impact of Freshwater on Gulf of Maine

Herring Right Whale Calves

1980 1990 2000 1980 1990 2000

Sm. Copepods Calanus

1980 1990 2000 1980 1990 2000

Phytoplankton Salinity
Phytoplankton
Freshwater

1980 1990 2000 1980 1990 2000

4
 Impact of Freshwater on Gulf of Maine

Herring Right Whale Calves

1980 1990 2000 1980 1990 2000

Sm. Copepods Calanus

1980 1990 2000 1980 1990 2000

Phytoplankton Salinity
Phytoplankton
Freshwater

1980 1990 2000 1980 1990 2000

5
 Impact of Freshwater on Gulf of Maine

Herring Right Whale Calves

1980 1990 2000 1980 1990 2000

Sm. Copepods Calanus

1980 1990 2000 1980 1990 2000

Phytoplankton Salinity
Phytoplankton
Freshwater

1980 1990 2000 1980 1990 2000

6
 Impact of Freshwater on Gulf of Maine

Herring Right Whale Calves

1980 1990 2000 1980 1990 2000

Sm. Copepods Calanus

1980 1990 2000 1980 1990 2000

Phytoplankton Salinity
Phytoplankton
Freshwater

1980 1990 2000 1980 1990 2000

7
 Impact of Freshwater on Gulf of Maine

Herring Right Whale Calves

1980 1990 2000 1980 1990 2000

Sm. Copepods Calanus

1980 1990 2000 1980 1990 2000

Phytoplankton Salinity
Phytoplankton
Freshwater

1980 1990 2000 1980 1990 2000

8
 Impact of Freshwater on Gulf of Maine

Herring Right Whale Calves

1980 1990 2000 1980 1990 2000

Sm. Copepods Calanus

1980 1990 2000 1980 1990 2000

Phytoplankton Salinity
Phytoplankton
Freshwater

1980 1990 2000 1980 1990 2000

9
 Impact of Freshwater on Gulf of Maine

Herring Right Whale Calves

1980 1990 2000 1980 1990 2000

Sm. Copepods Calanus

1980 1990 2000 1980 1990 2000

Phytoplankton Salinity
Phytoplankton
Freshwater

1980 1990 2000 1980 1990 2000

10
Some thoughts

• Historical approach is useful for identifying patterns, but

– Limited by the length of time of our sampling

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Mmm, clams

From Wanamaker
et al. (submitted)

• Quahogs have growth rings

• Width of rings==growth
• Growth in W. GoM is correlated with Calanus

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Mmm, clams

• Clams make great fossils (and chowders)!

• Is this a proxy Calanus record?
• Do changes in clam growth correspond to changes in
climate/fisheries?

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Some thoughts

• Historical approach is useful for identifying patterns, but

– Limited by the length of time of our sampling
– Need to understand process--why are the species connected?
• Requires focused study

• Dynamical vs. empirical models

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