Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Climate Change Science Panel - Friedland & Fogarty
Climate Change Science Panel - Friedland & Fogarty
Buoyancy-
driven Flow Secondary
Precipitation Production
& Runoff Salinity
Wind-driven Fish
Currents Recruitment
Stratification & Production
& Fronts
Wind Speed Upwelling
& Direction Downwelling Fishery
Yield
Turbulent
Mixing
The North Atlantic
Oscillation affects:
•Temperature Patterns
•Wind Fields
•Precipitation
NAO Affects Cod Recruitment
in the North Atlantic
Beaugrand et al 2003
Maine Lobster Landings and the
North Atlantic Oscillation
30
Landings (Thousand MT)
25
15
10
0
1945 1965 1985
Year
Long-term Sea Surface Temperature
4 4 °N
A re a 1
4 2 °N
A re a 3
4 0 °N
A re a 5
3 8 °N
A re a 7
A re a 6
3 6 °N
7 6 °W 7 4 °W 7 2 °W 7 0 °W 6 8 °W
10
10
8
8
C J
14
12
14
Mean annual temperature, °C
10
D K
16
14
14 12
10
12
E L 18
16 16
14
14
12
F M 11
22
10
21 9
20 8
G N
9
22
8
21
20
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Year
Gulf of Maine (Area 1) detail
11 A H
14
10
12
9
8
Scaled minima and maxima for all areas
-1
-2
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Year
Gulf of Maine Cod Landings
and Temperature
20 12
Cod Temp
15
Landings ('000 mt)
Temperature (°C)
10
10
8
5
0 6
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year
Effect of Temperature on
Mean Latitude of Occurrence
Temperature Change Coefficent
Bluefish
Spiny Dogfish
Winter Flounder
Red Hake
Longfin Squid
Silver Hake
Long Horn Sculpin
White Hake
Pollock
American Plaice
Haddock
-0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7
Murawski 1993
Offshore hake – southern deepwater species
Warm conditions
Cold conditions
Response: move
to cooler
conditions
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
b
4
North Atlantic Oscillation
-2
-4
35
30
25
20
40 70s 80s
Latitude (°N)
35
30
25
20
40 90s 00s
35
30
25
20
-70 -65 -60 -55 -50 -65 -60 -55 -50
2 -1
1.0 m sec
Longitude (°W)
Early Spring
Phytoplankton Bloom
Favors Haddock
Recruitment On The
Scotian Shelf
1.0
T-test Method
CumVar Method
0.8
-1
Log Recruits SSB
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
40 50 60 70 80
Day of year
Friedland et al. in prep
Need Mechanistic Understanding of Climate
Effects on Living Marine Resources
Favorable
Environment
Unfavorable
Environment
If Intrinsic rate of
increase is affected
Conclusions
-Decadal-scale variation in ocean climate evident.
-North Atlantic Oscillation dominant feature in this
region.
-Changes in NAO have been linked to changes in
cod recruitment.
-Changes in fish distribution have been linked to
temperature & NAO.
-Migratory species may be impacted by factors
occurring in distant locations.
-Complex interactions between exploitation and
harvesting can be expected.