Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Topics Covered
Time value of Money Equity Valuation
Annuity/Perpetuity Enterprise Value
Risk Free Cash Flow
Portfolio Theory IPO Mechanism
CAPM Right Issues
Capital Structure Stock Bonus and
WACC Stock Split
Capital Budgeting – M&A – Synergy
NPV, IRR, Payback
What is time value of money?
The time value of money is a recognition that money
received today is worth more than an equal amount
of money received months or years in the future:
In solving any time-value problems, it is important to
know if the cash flows take place at the beginning or
at the end of the period.
Translating a current value into its equivalent future
value is referred to as compounding.
Translating a future cash flow or value into its
equivalent value in a prior period is referred to as
discounting.
Present Value
PV=CF/i
C = coupon payment (Interest Payments)
n = number of payments
i = interest rate, or required yield (Yield to Maturity)
M = value at maturity, or par value (Principal)
The Concept of Risk
Whenever you make a financing or investment
decision, there is some uncertainty about the
outcome.
Though the terms “risk” and “uncertainty” are often
used to mean the same thing, there is a distinction
between them.
Uncertainty is not knowing what is going to happen.
Risk is the degree of uncertainty.
Thus, greater the uncertainty, the greater the risk.
Expected Return
Portfolio that deliver the highest return for the level of risk make up
what is called the efficient frontier.
Modern Portfolio Theory
Harry Markowitz tuned us into the idea that investors hold
portfolios of assets and therefore their concern is focused
upon the portfolio return and the portfolio risk, not on the
return and risk of individual assets (Journal of Finance,
1952).
The risk of a well diversified portfolio depends on the market
risk of the securities included in the portfolio.
The contribution of an individual security to the risk of a well
diversified portfolio depends on two factors: the importance
(weight) of the security in the portfolio and the sensitivity of
the security to market movements (beta).
All the assets in each portfolio, even on the frontier, have
some risk. However, regardless of the level of risk one
chooses, one can get the highest expected return by a
mixture of a portfolio in the efficient frontier and a risk free
asset. (See figure in the following slide)
We see that the best portfolios are no longer those along the entire length
of the efficient frontier; The straight line shown below provides better return
than the efficient frontier for any given level of risk. This straight line is a
combination of the risk free asset and one – and only one – market
portfolio.
Capital Market Line
If investors are all risk averse—they only take on risk
if there is adequate compensation—and if they are
free to invest in the risky assets as well as the risk-
free asset, the best deals lie along the line that is
tangent to the efficient frontier.
This line is referred to as the capital market line
(CML). The CML specifies the returns an investor
can expect for a given level of risk.
If the portfolios along the capital market line are the
best deals and are available to all investors, it
follows that the returns of these risky assets (Which
are there in the portfolio) will be priced to
compensate investors for the risk they bear relative
to that of the market portfolio.
CAPM
So, there is a specific level of return which a investor
should get from an asset for bearing a specific level
of risk. The CAPM uses this relationship between
expected return and risk to describe how assets are
priced.
The CAPM specifies that the return on any asset is
a function of the return on a risk-free asset plus a
risk premium.
The return on the risk free asset is compensation for
the time value of money.
The risk premium is the compensation for bearing
risk.
CAPM
Where:
Re = cost of equity
Rd = cost of debt
E = market value of the firm's equity
D = market value of the firm's debt
V = E + D
E/V = percentage of financing that is equity
D/V = percentage of financing that is debt
Tc = corporate tax rate
WACC
0 1 1.6 2 3
Weaknesses of Payback:
1. Ignores the TVM.
2. Ignores CFs occurring after the
payback period.
Discounted Payback: Uses
discounted
rather than raw CFs.
0 1 2 3
10%
CFt -100 10 60 80
PVCFt -100 9.09 49.59 60.11
Cumulative -100 -90.91 -41.32 18.79
Discounted
payback = 2 + 41.32/60.11 = 2.7 yrs
Project L:
0 1 2 3
10%
-100.00 10 60 80
9.09
49.59
60.11
18.79 = NPVL NPVS = $19.98.
Rationale for the NPV Method
0 1 2 3
0 1 2 3
IRR = ?
-100.00 10 60 80
PV1
PV2
PV3
0 = NPV
k (%)
IRR
Mutually Exclusive Projects
S IRRS
k 8.7 k %
IRRL
To Find the Crossover Rate
0 1 2 3 4 5 N NN
- + + + + + N
- + + + + - NN
- - - + + + N
+ + + - - - N
- + + - + - NN
Equity Valuation
OR
OR
Sustainable Growth Model (What should
be g?)
Return on Equity = Net Income/Total Equity
Dividend Payout Ratio = Dividend per share/EPS
Sustainable Growth (g) = (1-Dividend Payout)* ROE
The sustainable growth model shows us that when firms pay
dividends, earnings growth lowers. If the dividend payout is
20%, the growth expected will be only 80% of the ROE rate.
A company cannot grow earnings faster than its current
ROE without raising additional cash. That is, a firm that now
has a 15% ROE cannot increase its earnings faster than
15% annually without borrowing funds.
ROE is, in effect, a speed limit on a firm's growth rate, which
is why money managers rely on it to gauge growth potential.
DCF Model
The price of a stock can also be found using
discounted cash flows.
Steps:
Find out free cash flows of the firm.
Estimate the present value of the free cash flow using
required rate of return (WACC)
Find out the enterprise value.
Deduct net debt
Divide the resultant figure by the number of outstanding
shares.
Enterprise Value
EV = Market value of equity + Preferred stock +
Minority Interests + Market Value of debt – cash and
cash equivalents
Takeover value of the company
All the components are market, not book values
Sum of claims of all the security-holders: debt
holders, preferred shareholders, minority
shareholders, common equity holders
Better than market cap, since it also consider value
of debt, which needs to be paid by the buyer of firm.
EV can be negative in certain cases—for example,
when there is too much cash in the company
Free Cash Flow
Private Placement
Public Offering
Right Issues
In a private placement, such as to angels or
VCs, securities are sold to a few investors
rather than to the public at large.
In a public offering, securities are offered to
the public and must be registered with SEBI.
Why should a company consider going
public?
shares
Best Effort - underwriters only agree to do their best
Go on road show
Senior management team, investment banker,
and lawyer visit potential institutional investors
Usually travel to ten to twenty cities in a two-week
period, making three to five presentations each
day.
Set final offer price in final prospectus –
Through book building process
Describe how an IPO would be priced.
Since the firm is going public, there is no
established price.
Banker and company project the company’s future
earnings and free cash flows
The banker would examine market data on similar
companies.
Price set to place the firm’s P/E and M/B ratios in
line with publicly traded firms in the same industry
having similar risk and growth prospects
On the basis of all relevant factors, the investment
banker would determine a ballpark price, and
specify a range (such as Rs.55 to Rs62) in the
preliminary prospectus.
Class of Investors
Three classes of investors can bid for the
shares:
Qualified Institutional Buyers: QIBs include mutual
funds and Foreign Institutional Investors. At least
50% of the shares are reserved for this category.
Retail investors: Anyone who bids for shares under
Rs 50,000 is a retail investor. At least 25% is
reserved for this category.
The balance bids are offered to high net worth
individuals and employees of the company.
What is “book building?”
Investment banker asks investors to indicate how
many shares they plan to buy, and records this in a
“book” – Price Discovery Process
The number of shares are fixed. After evaluating the
bid prices, the company will accept the lowest price
that will allow it to dispose the entire block of shares.
That is called the cut-off price. All bidders get
allotment at cutoff price.
The bids are first allotted to the different categories
and the over-subscription in each category is
determined. Retail investors and high net worth
individuals get allotments on a proportional basis
What are the direct and indirect costs of
an IPO?
Underwriter usually charges a 5-7%
spread between offer price and proceeds
to issuer.
Direct costs to lawyers, printers,
accountants, etc. can be over a crore of
rupees.
Preparing for IPO consumes most of
management’s attention during the pre-
IPO months.
What is a rights offering?
positive signal.
You choose to sell the right
Right price = 48.333 – 40 = 8.333
Decisions
What price to pay? – Value Target, Value
Synergies
How to pay? – All Equity, All Cash, Combination
of equity and cash
How to finance the deal? – Raise new equity, new
debt, internal funds
Target’s Performance Improvement requirement
to achieve the desired synergies and how to
achieve it?
M&A: Synergy
Additional value that is generated by combining two
firms, which would not be generated if companies
operated independently.
Synergies create value by harvesting benefits that
each company would not be able to gain on its own.
To be successful in M&A it is important to
Understand the credible sources of synergy and dubious
ones
Value Synergies
Value from Synergies = Value of combined firm with
synergies – Value of Acquirer – Value of Target if
optimally managed (According to market
expectations)
The Synergy Trap
When an acquirer pays acquisition premium,
he/she has two business problems to solve:
to meet the performance targets the market
already expects;
to meet the even higher targets implied by the
acquisition premium.
Hence, Synergy can be defined as “increases in
competitiveness and resulting cash flows beyond
what the two companies are expected to
accomplish independently”.
The Acquisition Game
Acquisition is a business gamble where
the acquirer pays up front for the right to
control the assets of the target firm and
earn, hopefully, a future stream of cash
flows.
But while the acquisition premium is
known with certainty, the payoffs are not.
NPV (of playing the acquisition game)=
Synergy- Premium.