Statistical analysis with CRM data set on seeding

potential for winter orographic cloud in Japan

Akihiro Hashimoto, Masataka Murakami

Physical Meteorology Research Department, Meteorological Research Institute

Syugo Hayashi, and Teruyuki Kato

Forecast Research Department, Meteorological Research Institute

International Symposium on Weather Modification

31 January - 1 February, 2007
Tsukuba, Japan
 Introduction

For an efficient cloud seeding experiment, Cloud

Resolving Model is a powerful tool for …
Seedability assessment
to distinguish the clouds that are expected to have a desirable change
due to the seeding.

The model provides the information necessary to

distinguish the seedable clouds, such as cloud
water content, cloud top temperature, …
 Introduction Topic I

Seedability assessment has two aspects that are …

1. To assess cloud properties with a short range forecast
How preferable (seedable) are the clouds in seeding
area on the day?
The model results are provided for the daily planning of seeding operation
to determine the flight time, flight course, flight level, seeding rate, …

2. To assess the seasonal properties of statistics of the

clouds that form in a seeding area
What is the best design of experiment through a season?
The frequency of occurrence of seedable clouds and its spatial distribution
are analyzed based on the seasonal data set of numerical simulations.
 Introduction Topic II

Estimation of natural snowfall amount in a target area

using the data obtained in the upwind of seeding area,
which are not affected by seeding.
e a
Winter Monsoon A r
on
i
at
tim e a
Es A r
ng
di a
e
ll ee A r
Hi S t
m
a
g e
u r
U on in Ta
n ta
ou Dam Catchment Area
M
igo
h
Ec
 Numerical Model

JMANHM (NonHydrostatic Model of the Japan Meteorological Agency)

3-ice + 2-liquid water substance categories
one-moment bulk parameterization
two-moment bulk parameterization
The ice categories are formulated with two-moment bulk
parameterization, while the liquid categories are with one-moment bulk
parameterization

Radar-Rain gauge analysis 1km-NHM

The distribution of surface

precipitation of the forecast is
in good agreement with
observation.
 Numerical Simulations
500 km

Calculation domains
the Sea of Japan

400 km
Niigata
Inner model of 1-km mesh
covering the region from Niigata
prefecture to the Sea of Japan
1km-NHM
One-way nesting

2000 km
Outer model of 5-km mesh
Final output of covering Far East Asia
the simulations
Meteorological parameters
in 1-km horizontal resolution, One-way nesting
5km-NHM
every 1 hour
2500 km
RANAL of 20-km mesh
Initial and boundary conditions for the outer model
are provided from the RANAL every 6 hours.
Data
e a
A r
Winter Monsoon n
it o
a a
tim r e
Es A
丘 ing
沼 ill ed
魚
陵 a
H S e
脈 e a
num 後
山
i n r 1km-NHM
U o 越 矢木沢ダム集水域
n ta t A
ou g e
o
M
ar
h ig T
E c Dam Catchment Area

400 km
For statistical analysis,
500 km
small area 80km x 80km is extracted.
 Procedure for Analysis
Definition of seedable cloud in the model space
The mass ratio of cloud water to the total condensate water > 0.4
Cloud top temperature < -5 degree Celsius
LWP > 0.2 mm
Seedable cloud distribution should be dependent
Stratification with wind field on the wind field in focused region.
≦ 24 m/s
Wind Speed
≧ 24 m/s

Wind W WNW NW NNW

Direction 270±11.25o 292.5±11.25o 315±11.25o 337.5±11.25o
※ Wind speed and direction averaged over the analysis area at the height of 3 km

Definition of the occurrence probability of seedable cloud

NSDAB The number of occurrence of seedable cloud

FSDAB =
NALL The number of occurrence of wind speed and direction
 Probability of occurrence of seedable clouds

NW WNW

The probability is more than 30 % over the upwind slope,

and larger for the NW case than for the WNW case.

The NW case seems batter for the efficient seeding experiment. Is that true in all meanings?
Number of occurrence of each wind class

WNW

NW

The NW case occurs less frequently.

Number of occurrence of seedable clouds

NW WNW
The number of occurrence is larger for the WNW
case than for the NW case.
 Conclusion I

Brief guideline …
The NW case is better for the efficient seeding experiment,
if you concern each of seeding operations.
Because you can find the seedable clouds in high probability (efficiently) , if
you limit the operation into the NW case.

On the other hand, if you concern the water resource

augmentation through a season, the WNW case should be
included in the planning of seeding operation.
Because the number of occurrence of seedable clouds through a season is
much larger for the WNW case.
 Estimation of natural snowfall
We attempted to examine the effectiveness of the
procedure, using the seasonal data set of CRM.
Parameters in estimation area e a
Winter Monsoon A r
UV, W, Qs, Qc, Ttop, LWP n
it o
a
tim e a
Single regression analysis Es A r
陵 ing
沼
丘
ed
Snowfall rate in target area 魚 ill
S e
H
a 脈
um 山 e a
U o n 越
後 矢木沢ダム集水域
i n A r
ta t
un e
M
o
arg
ig
o T
h
Ec Dam Catchment Area

Multiple Regression Model

yˆ = βˆ 0 + βˆ 1 x1 + βˆ 2 x 2 + βˆ 3 x 3 + βˆ 4 x 4 + ⋅ ⋅ ⋅
 Estimation of natural snowfall
Single regression analysis
UV−DAM SNOWFALL W−DAM SNOWFALL Qc−DAM SNOWFALL

+ +

Lower layer near the coast Upwind of Uonuma hill Lower layer near the coast
 Estimation of natural snowfall
Single regression
Qs−DAM SNOWFALL Ttop−DAM SNOWFALL LWP−DAM SNOFALL

+
+ +

-0.2 0.05 0.3 0.55 0.8

Upwind of Uonuma hill Upwind of Uonuma hill

-0.2 0.05 0.3 0.55 0.8

About 2 – 3 km height
 Estimation of natural snowfall
Multiple regression
Correlation Multiple Corr.
UV 0.50 0.22
W 0.34 0.062
QC 0.44 0.13
QS 0.67 0.44
Ttop -0.45 -0.15
LWP 0.37 0.086
Y - 0.76

Multiple regression shows much better correlation

with the dam precipitation.
UV and Qs in the upwind area are the strong factors to
determine the dam precipitation.
 Conclusion II

Multiple regression shows much better correlation with

the dam precipitation.
UV and Qs in the upwind area are the strong factors to
determine the dam precipitation.
 Summary
Conclusion I
The NW case is better for the efficient seeding experiment,
if you concern each of seeding operations.
On the other hand, if you concern the water resource
augmentation through a season, the WNW case should be
included in the planning of seeding operation.

Conclusion II
Multiple regression shows much better correlation with
the dam precipitation.
UV and Qs in the upwind area are the strong factors to
determine the dam precipitation.