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Democracy in Africa
Responses to Questions from Jason McClure
David H. Shinn
5 December 2010

Question: How do you assess democratization in Africa over the past five years? How does
that compare with the initial 10-15 years following the end of the Cold War?
Answer: African politics became increasingly authoritarian from the 1960s until about 1990.
There was a strong challenge to autocratic rule in the early 1990s that lasted into the late 1990s.
As the 20th century came to an end, sustained democratization went into decline again and has
yet to recover. The picture is, however, mixed. This is not surprising when you are considering
53 very different countries. In recent years, the record has been good in countries such as Ghana,
South Africa, Mali, Benin, Botswana, Tanzania, Sierra Leone, Cape Verde, Seychelles and
Mauritius. In most other countries, democratization has not performed well. Eritrea has not had
an election since independence in 1993. Madagascar, Guinea, Zimbabwe and Cote d’Ivoire have
been in political turmoil in recent years while one party politics has prevailed in countries such
as Sudan, Angola, Gabon and Cameroon.
Question: Is ethnicity becoming more or less potent as a political force on the continent? What
countries have successfully mitigated ethnic polarization in their politics and how have they
accomplished this?
Answer: Ethnicity is holding its own as a potent political force in Africa. Very few African
countries have managed to overcome this scourge. By a combination of luck and relatively
enlightened political leadership, ethnically diverse countries such as Tanzania and South Africa
have managed to avoid the most harmful aspects of ethnicity. But even in these countries a
single political party has retained power since independence. A number of more authoritarian
governments have actually been more successful in minimizing the impact of ethnicity, but this
has largely been due to more repressive tactics.
Question: Are large oil/natural resource finds a curse for democratic governance? Which
countries offer the best model for handling large mineral/oil finds while maintaining democratic
institutions? What are the characteristics of African countries that manage their resource finds
well (for example: high education level, ethnic homogeneity, existing democratic structures, etc.)
and what are the characteristics of countries whose governance has been harmed by resource
discoveries?
Answer: In the case of large oil deposits, I am not aware of a single country in Africa (and most
of the rest of the world) that has not suffered from the oil curse. These governments tend to be
authoritarian or corrupt or both. Ghana is an important test case if it can be the first in Africa to
maintain relatively democratic government and avoid the oil curse. The situation with mineral
wealth provides a mixed picture. Botswana (diamonds), South Africa (numerous minerals) and
Zambia (copper) have largely avoided the negative aspects of significant natural resource wealth.
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All three countries are at the higher end of the education, health care and democracy scales, but I
doubt that three countries provide enough evidence to reach any generalizations.
Question: Has the rise of China challenged the assumption that democracy is necessary for
economic growth and stability in Africa? Do you see that China’s aid, trade and investment on
the continent has been positive, negative or neutral for democracy?
Answer: Over the medium term (10, 20 perhaps 30 years) you can have economic growth and
stability in Africa with little or no democracy. The problem is that authoritarianism begets more
authoritarianism and, at some point, there is a breaking point unless there is movement, even
slow movement, towards increased participation of the people in government. While China’s
involvement in Africa so far has been largely positive for African economies and existing
governments, it has not been positive for the expansion of western-style liberal democracy.
China is an important source of financial resources for Africa and has helped drive up the price
of African commodity prices, especially natural resources. Until 2009, when it had a large trade
surplus collectively with Africa’s 53 countries, China’s trade was generally in balance with
Africa. The problem is that China has huge trade deficits with several of Africa’s major oil
producing countries such as Angola and large trade surpluses with about thirty of Africa’s
mainly poorer countries. In the case of Africa’s poorest countries, this is not a sustainable
relationship.
Question: What has persistent conflict in countries like Sudan, Democratic Republic of Congo
and Somalia had on governance in neighboring states?
Answer: Conflict in these states has had a detrimental impact on stability in neighboring
countries, which tends to lead to more severe security responses in the neighboring countries
and, indirectly, has a harmful impact on governance. Conflict in neighboring countries also
diverts scarce resources and the attention of senior leaders from development. These conflicts
have opportunity costs for their neighbors.
Question: How do you assess the role of the following institutions in promoting democracy in
Africa over the past five years: the U.S., the EU, the African Union, South Africa, France and
the U.K.?
Answer: They have all been saying the right things and in some cases pursuing policies that try
to promote democracy. None of them has devoted much by way of financial resources that
directly improves democracy. In many cases, the African governments have been unwilling to
accept financial resources that encourage democracy and might endanger their continuation in
power. The biggest positive surprise among these actors has actually been the African Union. It
has taken some tough stands against governments that have not measured up such as Togo,
Madagascar and Guinea. This was unheard of twenty years ago.
Question: What do you foresee over the next 10 years? Will economic growth spur democratic
reforms?
Answer: Enlightened African leaders will spur democratic reforms. Without enlightened
leadership that really believes in democratic principles, I doubt there will be much improvement.
Too many leaders are interested in remaining in power at any cost. One of the biggest setbacks
in Africa in recent years has been the elimination of previously existing term limits in African
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constitutions. Algeria, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, Djibouti, Gabon, Togo, Tunisia and
Uganda, among others, have abolished presidential term limits. This is not a good omen.
Economic growth might help to encourage democratic reforms, but I do not think it is the major
factor.