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The Correlation between Turnover Differentialand Winning in the National Football League
©2010 Hank Koebler, IV
 
TableofContents
CoverPage........................................................................................................................................... 1
TableofContents
.........................................................................................................................................
2Preface
.........................................................................................................................................................
3Introduction
.................................................................................................................................................
5ReviewofLiterature
....................................................................................................................................
6ResearchQuestion
.......................................................................................................................................
7Hypotheses
..................................................................................................................................................
7TreatmentoftheData
.................................................................................................................................
8Pearson’sCorrelationCoefficient
................................................................................................................
8Chi-squaredTestofIndependence
..............................................................................................................
9ScatterPlotoftheData
.............................................................................................................................
10Best-FitLine
................................................................................................................................................
11DeterminingtheAccuracyoftheBest-FitLineEquation
..........................................................................
12Conclusion
..................................................................................................................................................
14ValidityoftheInvestigation’sMathematicalProcessesandConclusions
...............................................
16TurnoverDifferentialandPredictedWinsforNFLTeamsin2000
...........................................................
17TurnoverDifferentialandPredictedWinsforNFLTeamsin2001
...........................................................
18TurnoverDifferentialandPredictedWinsforNFLTeamsin2002
...........................................................
19TurnoverDifferentialandPredictedWinsforNFLTeamsin2003
...........................................................
20TurnoverDifferentialandPredictedWinsforNFLTeamsin2004
...........................................................
21TurnoverDifferentialandPredictedWinsforNFLTeamsin2005
...........................................................
22TurnoverDifferentialandPredictedWinsforNFLTeamsin2006
...........................................................
23TurnoverDifferentialandPredictedWinsforNFLTeamsin2007
...........................................................
24TurnoverDifferentialandPredictedWinsforNFLTeamsin2008
...........................................................
25TurnoverDifferentialandPredictedWinsforNFLTeamsin2009
...........................................................
26Notes
..........................................................................................................................................................
27WorksCited
................................................................................................................................................
28
 
Preface
One of the greatest of all time. Precise, accurate, unflappable in the face of pressure.Able to read a defense both better and quicker than any other quarterback in a league.Considered by some one of the best to ever play the game. He had already won one Super Bowlring, and many more were sure to come. Yet something was still missing.By any statistical measure, he has consistently been the best quarterback in the league for years, putting up all kinds of records every season. But when the regular season ended, hecollapsed annually. Every year his team entered the playoffs with high expectations, and everyyear his play fizzled and the playoffs ended with heartbreak and disappointment. It was possibleto make the case that one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time was also a perennialdisappointment in the playoffs. Even in the one year that his team did win a Super Bowl, he had played terribly and the team’s defense won the game for them. For this reason, even his Super Bowl ring wasn’t enough to allay concerns that he couldn’t win a big game.On this night, he can lay all those claims to rest, and establish once and for all that he isworthy of being considered the best quarterback of all time. It is his second Super Bowlappearance, and this time, the defense can’t save the day for him. The spotlight is now on him,and he has to put the team on his shoulders and win this game.His team is down 24-17, a margin of only one touchdown, with 3 minutes and 24 secondsleft in the Super Bowl. His team has possession of the ball, and is quickly moving downfield. Afew short completions bring the ball into the opposing team’s side of the field. Like sharkssmelling blood, he and his team can smell the endzone getting closer and closer. This is it. Tyingthe game with a touchdown will be huge – he will then have a chance to win the game in
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