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JULY 2011
STRONG GROWTH, LOW POLLUTION
MODELLING A CARBON PRICE
 
Contents
Key points 1Continued global growth as the world reduces pollution 2Advantages o early action 3Strong growth, low pollution 4Jobs creation continues 5A dynamic economy 6Industries take up new opportunities 7Modest impact on prices 8Price increase in context 9A clean energy uture 10New transport uels and technology 11Pricing provides incentives or better choices 12Economic transormation to clean energy 13Technological transormation 14The world is moving to tackle climate change 15Costs o inaction 16Description o scenarios 17Summary indicators 18
© Commonwealth o Australia 2011ISBN 978-0-642-74719-8
Ownership of intellectual property rights in this publication
Unless otherwise noted, copyright (and any other intellectual property rights, i any) in this publication is owned by the Commonwealth oAustralia (reerred to below as the Commonwealth).
Creative Commons licence
With the exception o the Coat o Arms (see below), the Treasury logo and the chart on page 12, this publication is licensed under a CreativeCommons Attribution 3.0 Australia Licence.Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia Licence is a standard orm license agreement that allows you to copy, distribute, transmit and adaptthis publication provided that you attribute the work. A summary o the licence terms is available rom http://creativecommons.org/licenses/ by/3.0/au/deed.en. The ull licence terms are available rom http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/au/legalcode.The Commonwealth’s preerence is that you attribute this publication (and any material sourced rom it) using the ollowing wording:
Source: Licensed from the Commonwealth of Australia under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia Licence.The Commonwealth of Australia does not necessarily endorse the content of this publication.
Use of the Coat of Arms
The terms under which the Coat o Arms can be used are set out on the It’s an Honour website (see www.itsanhonour.gov.au)
Printed by CanPrint Communications Pty Ltd
 
Key points
The Australian economy and the global economy both continue to growstrongly at the same time as we cut pollution to reduce the risks o dangerousclimate change.Early global action is cheaper than delayed action. For economies like Australia, deerring action on climate change will only lead to higher long-termcosts as emission-intensive technology, processes and outputs are locked in.Pricing carbon will drive structural change in the economy, moving productiontowards less emission-intensive industries. Many o Australia’s industries willmaintain or improve their competitiveness in a carbon constrained world.The structural change in the economy driven by a market-based carbon pricingmechanism will be modest compared to other changes acing the economy,such as those driven by the terms o trade or demographic change.Incomes grow strongly under carbon pricing. By 2020, income per person isaround $9,000 higher in today’s dollars.Jobs will continue to grow under carbon pricing. By 2020, national employmentis projected to increase by 1.6 million jobs, with or without carbon pricing.Household consumption continues to grow strongly over time. The impact onthe overall price level is modest.The modelling provides inormation on only one element necessary orevaluating climate change policy: the costs o taking action. It does notmeasure the benets o tackling climate change.
The modelling results presented here are rom the core policy scenario undertaken by Treasury. Further scenario details can be ound onpage 17, and more detail on this and other scenarios can be ound at www.treasury.gov.au/carbonpricemodelling.
 
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