Daily Comment Raiffeisen RESEARCH

14 July 2011

Chart of the day

30 Minutes QEUR=
Price USD Cndl; QEUR=; Bid 06:30 14.07.2011; 1,4192; 1,4193; 1,4172; 1,4175 2MA; QEUR=; Bid(Last); 13; 200; Simple; 06:30 14.07.2011; 1,4218; 1,4108 Cndl; QEUR=; Bid 06:30 14.07.2011; 1,4192; 1,4193; 1,4172; 1,4175 2MA; QEUR=; Bid(Last); 13; 200; Simple; 06:30 14.07.2011; 1,4218; 1,4108 05:00 12.07.2011 - 10:30 14.07.2011 (GMT) Price USD

Important indicators today

RBI consensus 7.4% 2.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% 2.7% 1.5% 9.7% last 7.3% 2.1% -0.2% 0.3% 0.8% 2.7% 1.5% 9.1%
1,428 1,425 1,422
38,2% 1,4189

1,428 1,425 1,422

USA
14:30 14:30 14:30 14:30 16:00 n.a. Producer prices, yoy - core rate, yoy Retail sates, mom - excl. vehicles, mom Business inventories, mom Google, JPMorgan EUR: Consumer prices, yoy EUR: - core rate, yoy Monthly Wholesale Prices, yoy% Jun Jun Jun Jun May Q2 figures Jun Jun Jun 7.5% 2.1% 0.1% 0.2% 2.7% 1.5% -

1,419 1,4192 1,416

1,419 1,416

61,8% 1,4172

100,0% 1,4146

1,413 1,41 1,407 1,404

61,8% 1,4032 161,8% 1,4104

1,413 1,41 1,407 1,404 1,401 1,398

100,0% 1,3972 .1234 06:30 08:30 10:30 12:30 14:30 16:30 18:30 20:30 22:30 00:30 02:30 04:30 06:30 08:30 10:30 12:30 14:30 16:30 18:30 20:30 22:30 00:30 02:30 04:30 06:30 08:30 10:30

38,2% 1,4069

Europe
11:00 11:00 08:30

1,401 1,398
.1234

12 Juli 2011

13 Juli 2011

14 Juli 2011

Source: Thomson Reuters, Raiffeisen RESEARCH

Emerging Markets
Source: Bloomberg, Raiffeisen RESEARCH

EUR/USD

Last: 1.41951 Sell 1.4172 Target: 1.4146 1.407; Possible Head&ShouldersReversal Pattern, stop 1.4226 -> 1.4273 1.4296. July 14h, 2011 07:58CET

Market overview
cur.
Interest rates, yields 3M Euribor EUR 3M Libor USD Bund Future EUR US T Note Future Currencies EUR/USD EUR/JPY EUR/CHF EUR/CZK EUR/HUF EUR/PLN Equity markets S&P 500 Dow Jones I. A. Nasdaq Comp. DJ EuroStoxx 50 DAX ATX Nikkei 225 Emerging Markets Hang Seng (China) Sensex (India) Bovespa (Brazil) JALSH (South Africa) Commodities Brent Oil USD/bbl Gold USD/oz Credit markets iTRAXX Europe ITRAXX Crossover iTRAXX Fin. Senior 5J CDS Greece. 5J CDS Spain 5J CDS Portugal 107 -3 BP 120 541 210 2433 301 1074 94 352 107 661 121 184 13 BP 4 BP -1 BP 1248 BP -20 BP 608 BP 119 1585 -0.2% 0.7% 126 1590 78 1157 24.6% 12.2% 12226 18538 60670 32310 -0.5% 14219 -0.3% 21109 1.6% 73103 1.2% 33335 11273 17296 59705 26432 -3.7% -9.6% -12.5% 0.6% 1318 12492 2797 2715 7268 2690 9936 0.3% 1371 1040 9937 2099 2560 5834 2281 8228 4.8% 7.9% 5.4% -2.8% 5.1% -7.4% -2.9% 1.420 112.040 1.153 24.388 268.500 4.018 -0.2% 0.2% -0.4% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 1.49 123.3 1.4 25.9 292.1 4.15 1.26 105.4 1.1 23.9 261.9 3.83 -6.1% 3.2% -8.4% -2.6% -3.8% 1.3% 1.61% 0.6 BP 0.25% 0.0 BP 128.35 124.83 -0.4% 0.0% 1.6% 0.5% 134.8 125.4 0.8% 0.2% 119.9 115.1 59.9 BP -5.4 BP 2.4% 5.7%

1T 52W H

52W L

Ytd

0.4% 12876 0.5% 0.8% 1.3% 1.0% 2888 3077 7600 3013

-0.3% 10892

Established markets: The rating agency Moodys put a negative outlook on the Aaa rating of the US yesterday. It cited the still very high budget deficit (2011: 10.8% of GDP) and the political quarrels regarding the debt limit in the US as its reasons. US retail sales figures for June are likely to draw the lions share of attention today. We expect to see a continuation of the weak performance seen in the previous two months. Lower fuel prices (-5.5% p.m.), as well as a renewed decline in auto sales (-3.0 % p.m.), should suffice for retail sales to show at best a minimal nominal increase over May. The perceptibly lower oil price in June should be visible in the price data due for release today and tomorrow. The rise in producer prices is likely to be less pronounced in June compared to the previous month, with consumer prices expected to have even fallen slightly. In the eurozone as well, price data releases for June are also on the agenda for today. Eurozone inflation is expected to have stabilized at 2.7%. On the primary market, todays Italian issues (maturing in 2016, 2017, 2023 and 2026) promise to be eventful. Yield premiums on 2-, 5-, and 10-year Italian government bonds remain near their record highs from the beginning of the week. Equity markets: Following three days of losses, yesterday evening the US stock markets displayed a modest uptrend: the Dow Jones Industrials gained 0.4%, the S&P 500 0.3% and the Nasdaq Composite 0.5%. A particularly calming effect came from statements made by the Fed to the effect that liquidity supply is to be kept high should the economy slow down. However, after the close of trading stock index futures spiralled downwards again after Moodys rating agency warned that the USA might lose its Aaa rating. Yum Brands stocks made gains while those of Marriott International lost following close of trading after the two groups had presented their quarterly results. Concerns about the rating of the USA as an export market and a stronger yen put pressure on the Japa-

410 -11 BP 174 2322 258 1031 -4 BP -3 BP -6 BP -8 BP

Prices as of 14 July 11, 07:56 a.m. (CET) Source: Bloomberg

Daily Comment

nese equities market this morning. Overall, however, losses were limited, with exporters stocks naturally suffering most (Sony: down 1.5%). According to the news available at the moment, a subdued start to trading can be expected on the European bourses this morning. Credit markets: On the financial side, results of the stress test to be published Friday are awaited with bated breath. To prevent any greater market volatility during the week, the time of publication was set for after close of trading. There is also interest in learning whether support measures will in fact be announced (unofficial information suggests there will be an announcement for those banks which dont pass or barely pass the test). The latest news claims that the German Landesbank Helaba will forbid the agency EBA from publishing the results. Their criticism is aimed at the quality of the underlying definition of core capital. In regard to Italy, the French banks are exposed the most. This is based on the statistics of the Bank for International Settlements. Emerging Markets: The Singapore economy grew by only 0.5% year on year in the second quarter, down from a revised 9.3% yoy in the first quarter. This sharp slowdown in economic activity is due to weaker demand from the United States and the sovereign debt crisis afflicting Europe. Restrictive monetary policy in response to high inflation rates in most Asian economies is likely to result in more muted growth throughout the region in the second half of the year. Wholesale price data for India is due out today, with a further increase to 9.68% yoy expected. CEE: As in Hungary and the Czech Republic, the increase in June consumer prices in Poland was below expectations, coming to 4.2% p.a. for that month (down 0.4% on the previous month); in May a figure of 5.0% p.a. had been recorded. June consumer price data for Croatia is due out today - we expect a figure of 2.5% p.a., i.e. unchanged over the previous month. In addition, the final May industrial production figures for Hungary are being announced today; the provisional data had indicated disappointing growth of only 2.6% p.a., down from 6.5% in April. Meanwhile, yesterdays recovery in the equities markets in the second half of the day buoyed the Polish zloty and the forint against the euro, although other currencies lost ground against the euro. The CEE currencies are likely to remain highly volatile.

Market overview
current
Other interest rates EUR Eonia 1M Euribor EUR 3M Euribor EUR 6M Euribor EUR 12M Euribor EUR 2Y Swap EUR 3Y Swap EUR 5Y Swap EUR 10Y Swap EUR Other currencies EUR/GBP EUR/HRK EUR/RON EUR/SEK EUR/RUB EUR/UAH EUR/TRY EUR/BRL EUR/CNY EUR/ZAR Bond market 2Y Bund EUR 5Y Bund EUR 10Y Bund EUR 2Y US Treasury 5Y US Treasury 10Y US Treasury Interest rates CEE 3M Pribor 3M Wibor 3M Bubor 10Y Czech Rep. 10Y Poland 10Y Hungary Equity markets CEE Turkey (ISE Nat. 100) Croatia (CROBEX) Poland (WIG20) Romania (BET) Russia (MICEX) Serbia (BELEX15) Czech Rep. (PX) Hungary (BUX) Commodities WTI Oil USD/bbl Fuel oil USD/mt Diesel USD/mt CO2 EUA Fut. EUR/mt Silver USD/oz Platinum USD/oz Palladium USD/oz Steel USD/mt Aluminium USD/mt Copper USD/mt

1T 52W H 52W L
1.7% 1.5% 1.6% 1.8% 2.2% 2.5% 2.8% 3.2% 3.8% 0.9 7.5 4.3 9.6 43.9 11.9 2.4 2.4 9.7 10.0 1.9% 2.8% 3.5% 0.8% 2.4% 3.7% 0.9% 4.6% 6.1% 4.2% 6.4% 8.4% 0.3% 0.6% 0.8% 1.1% 1.4% 1.1% 1.4% 1.6% 2.3% 0.8 7.2 4.1 8.7 38.8 9.9 1.9 2.2 8.5 8.7 0.6% 1.2% 2.1% 0.3% 1.0% 2.4% 0.8% 3.7% 5.3% 3.2% 5.3% 6.6%

Ytd
65.9 BP 67.4 BP 59.9 59.1 67.0 40.4 25.6 7.2 -16.7 BP BP BP BP BP BP BP

1.48% 46.0 BP 1.46% 1.4 BP 1.61% 1.82% 2.18% 1.96% 2.14% 2.57% 3.20% 0.880 7.443 4.275 9.178 39.805 11.301 2.328 2.228 9.167 9.675 1.28% 1.91% 2.75% 0.36% 1.44% 2.89% 0.8 4.6 6.1 3.9 5.8 7.4 63261 2201 2763 5456 1714 726 1205 22276 97.7 974.8 1010.0 11.7 38.4 1759.6 780.8 627.5 2512.3 9672.0 0.6 0.0 -0.1 -1.6 -0.8 -0.1 1.8 BP BP BP BP BP BP BP

0.1% 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% 0.3% -0.2% 0.9% 0.9% 0.7% 0.5% -1.2 1.2 3.7 0.8 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 -6.3 0.0 BP BP BP BP BP BP BP BP BP BP BP BP

2.6% 0.8% -0.1% 2.1% -2.6% 7.1% 11.2% 0.3% 3.7% 8.3% 41.5 7.4 -21.5 -23.4 -56.8 -40.8 -5 75 24 1 -21 -56 BP BP BP BP BP BP BP BP BP BP BP BP

0.9% 0.4% 1.0% -0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 2.3%

71777 57393 2338 1773 2942 2356 6099 4778 1865 1320 829 600 1278 1107 24531 20147

-4.2% 4.3% 0.7% 3.5% 1.6% 11.4% -1.6% 4.4% 3.7% 27.8% 27.9% -15.4% 25.1% 1.3% -1.6% 14.5% 1.7% 0.8%

-0.4% 115.5 76.6 -0.8% 1064.5 614.5 1.6% n.a. n.a. -3.4% 15.8 13.2 4.4% 49.8 17.3 0.8% 1886.5 1489.0 1.0% 862.3 435.8 -1.3% 576.0 450.0 0.0% 2803.0 1947.5 0.2% 10190.0 6470.0

Prices as of 14 July 11, 07:56 a.m. (CET) Source: Bloomberg

Daily Comment
This report was completed on 14 July 2011

Acknowledgements

Editor
Raiffeisen RESEARCH GmbH A-1030 Vienna, Am Stadtpark 9 Tel: +43 1 717 07-1521 Head: Peter Brezinschek (1517) Research Sales: Werner Weingraber (5975) Economics, Fixed Income, FX: Valentin Hofsttter (Head, 1685), Jrg Angel (1687), Wolfgang Ernst (1500), Gunter Deuber (5707), Ingo Jungwirth (2139), Julia Neudorfer (5842), Andreas Schwabe (1389), Gintaras Shlizhyus (1343), Gottfried Steindl (1523), Martin Stelzeneder (1614) Credit/Corporate Bonds: Christoph Klaper (Head, 1652), Christoph Ibser (5913), Igor Kovacic (6732), Martin Kutny (2013), Peter Onofrej (2049), Gleb Shpilevoy (1461), Alexander Sklemin (1212), Jrgen Walter (5932) Stocks: Helge Rechberger (Head, 1533), Aaron Alber (1513), Christian Hinterwallner (1633), Jrn Lange (5934), Hannes Loacker (1885), Richard Malzer (5935), Johannes Mattner (1463), Christine Nowak (1625), Leopold Salcher (2176), Andreas Schiller (1358), Connie Schmann (2178), Magdalena Wasowicz (2169) Quant Research/Emerging Markets: Veronika Lammer (Head, 3741), Mario Annau (1355), Lydia Kranner (1609), Nina Kukic (1635), Albert Moik (1593), Manuel Schuster (1529) Technical analysis: Stefan Memmer (1421), Robert Schittler (1537)

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