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Cerebrus Consultants

Confidential

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT(GDP)

YEAR
OVER ALL
Agriculture & Allied
sector(Forestry,Fishing)
Industry (Mining &
Quarrying,Manufacturing,Elect
rical Gas & watersupply)
Services(Trades,Hotels,Comm
u,Financing,Insurance,Real
estates,Business
services,Community,Social
Services,Personal
Services,Contrustion)
Source: CMIE

2005-06
9

2006-07 2007-08
9.2
9.0

2008-09
8.1

2005-06(Q1)
8.5

2006-07(Q1)
9.6

2007-08(Q1)
9.3

2005-06(Q2)
8.4

GDP(%)
2006-07(Q2)
2007-08(Q2)
10.2
8.9

2005-06(Q3)
7.5

2006-07(Q3)
8.7

2007-08(Q3)
8.4

2005-06(Q4)
9.3

2006-07(Q4)
9.1

2007-08(Q4)
8.8

8.7

4.5

3.4

2.8

3.8

4.0

2.9

3.6

2.9

3.4

3.2

5.5

3.8

2.9

9.6

10.9

8.5

8.1

9.5

10.6

10.6

6.3

11.3

8.3

10.3

8.4

7.9

11.2

7.1

9.8

11

9.7
Projected(%)

10.1

11.6

10.6

10.3

11.7

10.3

9.7

11.1

10.3

11

10

10.8
CSO

RBI

12.6
CSO

GDP - July 2008

Cerebrus Consultants

Confidential

INFLATION

Inflation
WPI
CPI
Source: RBI

2005-06
4.4
3

2006-07
5.4
5.1

2007-08
7.4
5.5

Consumer Price Index(Urban Non Manual Employees)


YEAR
2005-06(Q1) 2005-06(Q2) 2005-06(Q3)
Overall
4.1
4.2
5.6
Food Group
4
4.1
6.7
Fuel and Light
-6.5
-5.5
-5.6
Housing
11.7
11.7
11.7
Clothing, Bedding and Footwear 2.3
2.6
2
Miscellaneous Group (Services) 4.4
4.2
4.9
Wholesale Price Index
YEAR
All Commodities
Primary Articles
Fuel Group
Manufactured Products
Source: RBI

2005-06(Q1)
4
1.2
10.8
3.7

2005-06(Q2)
4.2
4.2
11
3

2005-06(Q3)
3.6
5
8
2

2008-09 Projected
5.5 - 5.9
5

2005-06(Q4)
4.9
4.9
-2.9
6.6
3
4.6

2005-06
4
2.2
9.6
7.5
2
4.4

2006-07(Q1)
6.5
8.9
3
5.5
2.7
6.1

2006-07(Q2)
6.8
8.4
4.2
5.5
3.4
6.5

2006-07(Q3)
6.9
9.2
5.9
5.5
3.8
4.6

2006-07(Q4)
7.8
11.2
5.6
5.8
3.6
4.6

2006-07
7.6
10.9
6.4
5.6
3.6
4.4

2007-08(Q1)2007-08(Q2)2007-08(Q3)2007-08(Q4)
6.1
5.7
5.1
6
7.7
7.7
6.2
7.8
7.2
7
5.4
4.6
5.6
4.9
4.7
4
4.3
4
4.1
4.3
3.7
3.2
3.8
4.8

2008-09(Q1)
6.8
9.5
0.9
3.8
3.9
5.6

2005-06(Q4)
3
5.8
8.3
1.5

2005-06
4
5.3
8.9
1.5

2006-07(Q1)
4.8
5
8.8
2.5

2006-07(Q2)
5.4
8
8
4.2

2006-07(Q3)
5.9
8.5
3.8
4.8

2006-07(Q4)
6.1
11.8
1.2
6.2

2006-07
5.9
10.7
1
6.1

2007-08(Q1)2007-08(Q2)2007-08(Q3)2007-08(Q4)
4.4
3.4
3.8
7.5
6
7.5
4.2
10
-2
-3
3.2
7
4.4
5.2
4.5
7.8

2008-09(Q1)
8
10
5
5.4

Inflation - July 2008

Cerebrus Consultants

Confidential

FISCAL DEFICIT
Year
2001-2002
2002-2003
2003-2004
2004-2005
2005-2006
2006-2007
2007-2008
2008-2009(BE)
Source: RBI

As a % of GDP (In %)
6.1
5.9
4.5
4
4.1
3.5
3.1
3.2

Fiscal Deficit - July 2008

Cerebrus Consultants

Confidential

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

General
Mining
Manufacturing
Electricity

Industrial Production(%)
2005-06
2006-07
8.2
11.6
1
5.4
9.1
12.5
5.2
7.2

Apr -June Apr-Aug


2007-08
8.1
5
8.6
6.4

Apr-Dec

Apr-Jan

Apr -June

2006-07

10.5
3.6
11.7
5.3

11
3
12.2
5.7

9
21
10.8
8.5
15
6.3

8.3
19.5
10.4
11.4
16.1
9.8

11.2
4.4
12.2
7.5

Apr-Aug

Apr-Dec

Apr-Jan

2007-08

11.2
4.8
12.1
7.6

11
3.2
11.9
8.3

9.8
5.4
10.3
8.3

10
18.3
11.6
9.7
10.6
9.4

9.5
22.3
9.5
9.9
3
12.4

10
21.3
9.3
6.2
-2.3
9.3

9
4.9
9.6
6.6

8.7
4.6
9.2
6.3

7.8
20.2
9.6
5.8
-1.3
8.4

7.4
18.3
9.3
5.9
-1.7
8.6

Growth in IIP
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
10.3
6.9
Basic Goods
6.7
18.2
16.5
Capital Goods
15.8
12
8.7
Intermediate Goods
2.5
10.1
5.7
Consumer Goods
12
9.2
-1
Consumer Durables
15.3
10.4
8.1
Consumer Non - Durables11
Home publica RBI bull Index of ind pro
Source CSO

2006-07

9.8
18.6
11.3
9.9
11.2
9.5

Industrial Production - July 2008

2007-08

Cerebrus Consultants

Confidential

FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES

Capital Inflows

Year
Foreign Direct
Investment
FII
RBI

(US $ million)

2006-07
19,614
3,225

Sources of Accretion to Foreign Exchange Reserves

2007-08
25,455
20,328

Items

April-June
2007

April September
2006

April AprilSeptemb December


er 2007 2006

-4.6
11
0.9

-4.7
15.9
7.9

-10.3
18.9
6.1

-10.7
51.1
22.2

c.

Current Account Balance


Capital Account (net) (a to f)
Foreign Investment (i+ii)
(i) Foreign Direct Investment
(ii) Portfolio Investment
Banking Capital
of which: NRI Deposits
Short-Term Credit

5
1.2
0.4

-2.1
-0.4
1

3.3
2.2
3.9

d.
e.
f.

External Assistance
External Commercial Borrowings
Other items in capital account*

0
4
0.7

0.3
7
1.8

0.4
5.7
-0.5

I.
II.

a.

b.

III.

April-June
2006

Valuation change
(US $ billion) Total (I+II+III)

Foreign Exchange Reserves - July 2008

AprilAprilDecemb March
er 2007 2006-07

AprilMarch
2007-08

5.3
-0.1
5.7

-14
30.2
12.8
7.6
5.2
0.2
3.7
5.7

-16
83.2
41.4
8.4
33
5.8
-0.9
10.8

-9.8
46.4
15.6
8.5
7.1
1.9
4.3
6.6

-17.4
109.6
44.8
15.5
29.3
11.8
0.2
17.7

0.7
10.6
6.6

1
9.8
0.7

1.3
16.3
7.6

1.8
16.2
4.3

2.1
22.2
11

4.9

5.1

8.2

9.4

8.9

11

18.3

11.3

14.2

13.7

48.6

25.6

76.1

47.6

110.5

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