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The

Intelligence Phase -Entails scanning the environment, either intermittently or continuously.


It includes several activities aimed at identifying problem situations or opportunities. The problem (opportunity) is identified, classified as either programmed or nonprogrammed, decomposed (if needed) and ownership established. The intelligence phase ends with a problem statement. At that time, the design phase can be started.

Involves

generating, developing, and analyzing possible courses of action. includes activities such as understanding the problem and testing solutions for feasibility. model of the problem situation is constructed, tested, and validated. Modeling involves the conceptualization of the problem and its abstraction to quantitative and /or qualitative forms.

All models are made up of three basic components:


decision variables, uncontrollable variables (and/or parameters), and result (outcome) variables. Result variables reflect the level of effectiveness of the system; that is , they indicate how well the system performs or attains its goal. The latter depends on decision variables. Decision Variables describe the alternative courses of action. The values of these variables are determined by the decision-maker. Uncontrollable variables or parameters (constraints) are not under the control of the decision-maker.

Selection

of a principle of choice:- decision regarding the acceptability of a solution approach.


Two such principles are Normative models and descriptive models. Normative models implies that the chosen alternative is demonstrably the best of all possible alternatives. The process is basically that of optimization.

(generating) Alternatives: a significant part of the process of model building is generating alternatives. The models like linear programming can generate the alternatives automatically.
Developing

Predicting

the outcome of each alternative:

Decision making under Certainty


assume that complete knowledge is available thus the decision-makers knows the outcome. is one in which the decision-maker must consider several possible outcomes for each alternatives, each with a given probability of occurrence. The decision-maker can assess the degree of risk associated with each alternative. the decision-makers considers situations in which several outcomes are possible for each course of action. Usually there is no sufficient information available.

Decision making under risk


Decision making under Uncertainty,


The Choice Phase Alternatives are compared and a search for the best (good enough) solution is launched. Search techniques available include Analytical Techniques, Algorithms, Blind (unguided) and Heuristic (rules used for guidelines) search approaches.

The Implementation Phase Alternatives are considered by putting into consideration multiple goals and sensitivity analysis issues. One of the chosen alternative is put into operation

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