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1. Will there be another Federal Reserve quantitative easing program in the next year (12 months)?
July 20 Survey 0% August 11 Survey 20% 40% September 19 Survey 60% 80%
68% No 37%
59%
FED SURVEY
September 19, 2011 2. For those respondents who replied Yes to question #1: How large do you expect the new quantitative program will be over the next year (12 months)? Please do not include reinvestment of maturing securities.
July 20 Survey $700 $600 $500 $400 August 11 Survey September 19 Survey
$628 $527
$377
$300 $200 $100 $0 Average (In Billions)
FED SURVEY
September 19, 2011 3. For those respondents who replied Yes to question #1: At which meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee do you think the Fed is most likely to announce a new QE program?
0% September 2011 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
25%
November
30%
December
15%
January 2012
5%
March
15%
April
5%
June
5%
July
0%
September 2012
0%
FED SURVEY
September 19, 2011 4. Will the Fed conduct an "Operation Twist" in which it sells short-term securities in its portfolio and buys long-term securities?
80%
70%
69%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
FED SURVEY
September 19, 2011 5. For those respondents who replied Yes to question #4: At which meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee do you think the Fed is most likely to announce an "Operation Twist?"
0% September 2011
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
78%
November
18%
December
0%
January 2012
5%
March
0%
April
0%
June
0%
July
0%
September 2012
0%
FED SURVEY
September 19, 2011 6. How big do you think a full-scale "Operation Twist" would be?
30%
25%
Average: $391.2B
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
$100B
$200B
$300B
$400B
$500B
$600B
$700B
$800B
$900B
$1T
FED SURVEY
September 19, 2011 7. In which range of maturities do you expect the Fed would concentrate its purchases in an "Operation Twist?"
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
5 to 10 years
40%
10 to 15 years
33%
15 to 20 years
3%
5%
25 to 30 years
13%
Don't know/Unsure
8%
FED SURVEY
September 19, 2011 8. How would you characterize the Fed's current monetary policy?
July 20 Survey 0% August 11 Survey 10% 20% September 19 Survey 30% 40% 50% 60%
FED SURVEY
10. What do you expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will be on ?
July 20 Survey 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% December 31, 2011 June 30, 2012 3.41% 2.99% 2.61% 2.25% 2.59% 3.75% August 11 Survey September 19 Survey
FED SURVEY
Dec 31 2011
June 30 2012
0.13% 0.16%
FED SURVEY
September 19, 2011 13. What is the probability, in your opinion, that each of the following countries will default on its debt in the next three years? (0%=No chance of default, 100%=Certainty of default)
July 20 Survey 0% Portugal 10% 20% August 11 Survey 30% 40% 50% September 19 Survey 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
52% 45% 41% 37% 34% 24% 23% 23% 70% 28% 25% 24% 4% 2% 1% 2% 2% 3% 4% 2% 2% 83% 82% 48%
Ireland
Italy
Greece
Spain
United States
Germany
France
United Kingdom
Germany, France, and United Kingdom were not included in the July 20 survey
FED SURVEY
14. In the next 12 months, what percent probability do you place on the U.S. entering recession? (0%=No chance of recession, 100%=Certainty of recession)
35%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
August 11 Survey
September 19 Survey
FED SURVEY
September 19, 2011 15. Do you believe the American Jobs Act, if passed as proposed by President Obama, will lead to:
60%
57%
50%
40%
38%
30%
20%
10% 0%
0%
5%
0%
0%
Large Moderate No Moderate Large Don't employment employment employment employment employment know/Unsure gains gains gains losses losses
FED SURVEY
September 19, 2011 16. Which parts of the American Jobs Act do you believe are likely to pass Congress?
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
87.3%
80.0%
56.4%
29.1%
Infrastructure extension
27.3%
None
3.6%
All
1.8%
FED SURVEY
17.
Currencies 0%
Other 15%
Economics 45%
Equities 22%
Comments:
John Roberts, Hilliard Lyons: We are hearing from management teams that the best stimulus to allow for job growth would be a roll-back of regulations that are resulting in additional costs and uncertainty on business. David Kotok, Cumberland Advisors: Congresss inability to put national interest above political re-election is the most serious threat to economic recovery. Richard Steinberg, Steinberg Global Asset Management: The cap in muni interest for well-healed investors is a flawed thought process in Obama's new plan. If school districts have trouble raising money, won't that negate the potential benefit of pumping federal money into schools? Can you say, Zero Sum Game? Chad Morganlander, Stifel Nicolaus: Its in no ones best interest to relive 2008. The IMF will become the main actor in solving the European debt issue. Expect the Fed to announce additional quantitative easing. This action will scotch the fear trade, tighten credit spreads and send Treasury yields higher. Joseph LaVorgna, Deutsche Bank: The Fed has given the dollar short shrift, not fully accounting for the currency's effect on commodity prices; global growth concerns should be manifest in much lower energy prices, akin to what we saw in Q1 2009. Hugh Johnson, Hugh Johnson Advisors: To avoid an outcome as experienced in 19101912 or 1937-38, policymakers must not make a hard shift toward fiscal restraint. Given the
FED SURVEY
FED SURVEY
FED SURVEY
FED SURVEY