‫اﻻﺣﺼﺎء اﻻﺳﺘﺪﻻﻟﻰ‬

‫‪ -1‬ﻣﺮاﺟﻌﺔ أهﻢ اﻟﻤﻔﺎهﻴﻢ‬

 X Q R H E
A
Population Z L
C
N
S
T Y
P M
V G U F
J W I D
B
O K

Simple
Random
Sample
 A B C D E
R 25%
Population
F G H I K L 50%
P N O X U Z

T Y 25% Q
V S W

Stratified
25%
Random
Sample 50%

25%
 AB CD STU
Population EFG
OP QR

MN HI
JKL

Cluster
Random
Sample
 AB CD STU
Population EFG
OP QR

MN HI
JKL

B I Two- Stage
F
G Random
Sample
 A B CDE
Population F G HIJ
L MKNO
Q RPST
V WU X Y

Systematic
Non-Random
Sample
 X Q R H E
Population A C S
Z L N
M
T Y
V P G U F
Easily Accessible J W I D
B
O K

Convenience
Non-Random
Sample
 X Q R H E
A
Population Z L
C
N
S
T Y
M
V P G U F
Especially J I
Qualified
B W D
O K

Purposive
Non-Random
Sample
 ‫أﺧﻄﺎء اﻟﻌﻴﻨﺎت‬
‫) اﻟﻔﺮق ﺑﻴﻦ إﺣﺼﺎءات اﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ وﻣﻌﺎﻟﻢ اﻟﻤﺠﺘﻤﻊ (‬

‫أﺧﻄﺎء ﻣﻌﺎﻳﻨﺔ‬ ‫أﺧﻄﺎء ﺗﺤﻴﺰ‬

‫ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﻴﺯ ﻓﻰ ﺤﺴﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﺗﺤﻴﺰ ﻓﻰ اﺧﺘﻴﺎر‬

‫ﺒﺩﻻ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺘﻤﻊ ﻭﺘﻌﺘﻤﺩ‬
‫ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺨﻁﺎﺀ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺤﺠﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻭﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺘﻤﻊ‬
‫ﻭﻁﺭﻕ ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻣﺜﻞ ﺗﺒﺪﻳﻞ‬
‫ﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫وﺣﺪات ﻣﻌﺎﻳﻨﺔ ﻣﺤﻞ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺴﺎﻟﻴﺏ ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫أﺧﺮى ‪ ،‬واﻟﻔﺸﻞ ﻓﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﺤﺼﻮل ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎت ﺟﺰء آﺒﻴﺮ‬
‫ﻣﻦ اﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ‬
 ‫ﻧﻔﺮض أن ﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎ ﻣﺠﺘﻤﻊ ﻳﺘﻜﻮن ﻣﻦ أرﺑﻊ درﺟﺎت )‬
‫‪ (2,4,6,8‬وأردﻧﺎ اﺧﺘﻴﺎر ﻋﻴﻨﺎت ﺗﺸﻤﻞ آﻞ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ‬
‫وﺣﺪﺗﻴﻦ أو درﺟﺘﻴﻦ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈن آﻞ اﻟﻌﻴﻨﺎت اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻴﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻤﻤﻜﻦ اﻟﺤﺼﻮل ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ذﻟﻚ اﻟﻤﺠﺘﻤﻊ هﻰ‪:‬‬

‫‪8،2-‬‬ ‫‪6،2-‬‬ ‫‪4،2‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪2،2‬‬ ‫„‬

‫‪8،4-‬‬ ‫‪6،4-‬‬ ‫‪4،4‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪2،4‬‬ ‫„‬

‫‪8،6-‬‬ ‫‪6،6-‬‬ ‫‪4،6‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪2،6‬‬ ‫„‬

‫‪8،8-‬‬ ‫‪6،8-‬‬ ‫‪4،8‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪2،8‬‬ ‫„‬

 ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺠﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ‬ ‫إذا أردﻧﺎ رﺳﻢ ﺗﻮزﻳﻊ ﻋﻴﻨﺔ‬
‫) ‪(Χ‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻄﺎت‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻧﻨﺎ ﻧﻘﻮم‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫ﺑﺤﺴﺎب ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ آﻞ‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫ﻋﻴﻨﺔ أوﻻ آﻤﺎ هﻮ ﻣﻮﺿﺢ‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬
‫ﻓﻰ اﻟﺠﺪول‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬
‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬
‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬
‫‪11‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬
‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬
‫‪13‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬
‫‪14‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬
‫‪15‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬
‫‪16‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬
 ‫وﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺗﻤﺜﻴﻞ ﺗﻮزﻳﻊ ﻋﻴﻨﺔ اﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻄﺎت‬
‫ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﻤﺪرج اﻟﺘﻜﺮارى اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻰ ‪:‬‬
‫اﻟﺘﻜﺮار‬

‫‪4‬‬

‫‪3‬‬

‫‪2‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬
 The Theoretical Normal Curve

(from http://www.music.miami.edu/research/statistics/normalcurve/images/normalCurve1.gif
Properties of the Normal
Curve:
Theoretical construction
Also called Bell Curve or Gaussian Curve
Perfectly symmetrical normal distribution
The mean of a distribution is the midpoint
of the curve
The tails of the curve are infinite
Mean of the curve = median = mode
The “area under the curve” is measured in
standard deviations from the mean
Properties (cont.)
Has a mean = 0 and standard deviation = 1.
General relationships: ±1 s = about 68.26%
±2 s = about 95.44%
±3 s = about 99.72%

68.26%

95.44%

99.72%

-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
The Normal Curve
There are known
percentages of scores above
or below any given point on Mean = 65
S=2
a normal curve
0.70
„ 34% of scores between the 99.72% of cases
0.60
mean and 1 SD above or 95.44% of cases

Relative Frequency
below the mean 0.50
68.26% of cases
„ An additional 14% of scores 0.40
between 1 and 2 SDs above 0.30
or below the mean
0.20
„ Thus, about 96% of all
0.10
scores are within 2 SDs of
2% 14% 34% 34% 14% 2%
the mean (34% + 34% + 0.00
51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79
14% + 14% = 96%) -3S -2S -1S 0 +1S +2S +3S
Note: 34% and 14% figures
can be useful to remember
The Standard Normal Curve
“A standard score X−X
expresses a score’s z=
position in relation to the S
mean of the distribution,
using the standard
deviation as the unit of
measurement”
“A z-score states the
number of standard
deviations by which the
original score lines above
or below the mean”
Any score can be
converted to a z-score.