1

BI GING XC SUT (Dnh cho HS THPT)

Bin son : TS. Nguyn Vit ng, Khoa Ton Tin hc, HKHTN, HQG TP.HCM.
I. TM TT L THUYT
1. Qui tc m
a) Qui tc cng : Gi s i tng X c m cch chn khc nhau, i tng Y c n cch chn
khc nhau v khng c cch chn i tng X no trng vi mi cch chn i tng
Y. Khi c m + n cch chn mt trong hai i tng y.
b) Qui tc nhn : Gi s c hai hnh ng c thc hin lin tip. Hnh ng th nht c m
kt qu. ng vi mi kt qu ca hnh ng th nht, hnh ng th hai c n kt qu.
Khi c m.n kt qu ca hai hnh ng lin tip .
2. Hon v, chnh hp, t hp
Cho A l tp hp gm n phn t (n >1).
a) Mi cch sp t tt c n phn t ca A theo mt th t no c gi l mt hon v
ca n phn t . S cc hon v ca n phn t oc k hiu l P
n
.
Cng thc : P
n
= n !
b) Mi cch ly ra k phn t t tp A (1s ks n) v xp chng theo mt th t nht nh c
gi l mt chnh hp chp k ca n phn t. S cc chnh hp chp k ca n phn t c
k hiu l
k
n
A .
Cng thc
!
( 1)( 2)...( 1)
( )!
k
n
n
A n n n n k
n k
= + =

c) Mi tp con gm k phn t ca tp hp A(1s ks n) c gi l mt t hp chp k ca n
phn t . Qui c t hp chp 0 ca n phn t l tp rng.
Cng thc
!
!( )!
k
n
n
C
k n k
=

3. Php th v bin c
a) Mt php th m kt qu ca n khng th on trc c, nhng c th lit k ra tt c
cc kt qu c th xy ra gi l php th ngu nhin. Tp hp tt c cc kt qu c th xy
ra ca php th gi l khng gian mu ca php th . Khng gian mu c k hiu bi
O.
b) Trong mt php th ngu nhin, mi tp con ca khng gian mu c gi l mt bin c.
Nu kt qu ca php th l mt phn t ca bin c A, th ta ni trong php th , bin
c A xy ra.
2

VD1. Gieo mt con xc xc, gi 1, 2, , 6 l s chm xut hin th khng gian mu l
O = {1,2,, 6}.
VD2. Gieo mt ng xu hai ln, th khng gian mu l
O = {SS, SN, NS, NN}.
VD3. Gieo mt con xc xc. Bin c B = {1, 3, 5} l bin c s chm xut hin ca xc
xc l s l.
4. Mt s lai bin c
a) Bin c s cp
Mi tp hp con gm ng mt phn t ca khng gian mu gi l mt bin c s cp.
VD4. Trong v d 1 th bin c A = {1} l bin c s cp.
b) Bin c chc chn, bin c khng th
Bn thn tp O c gi l bin c chc chn. Tp rng l bin c khng th.
c) Bin c hp (tng), bin c giao(tch), bin c b
Bin c A B (cn k hiu l A+ B) gi l bin c hp ca hai bin c A v B. Bin c
A B( cn k hiu l AB) gi l bin c giao ca hai bin c A v B. Bin c \ A A = O
gi l bin c b ca bin c A.
VD5. Trong v d 1, xem cc bin c A={1,3,5}, B= {3,6}.
Khi :
- Bin c AB l bin c {1,3,5,6} n ch khng xy ra khi s chm xut hin l 2
hoc 4.
- Bin c AB l bin c {3}.
- Bin c b ca bin c A l bin c xc xc xut hin mt chn.
Nhn xt: Bin c AB xy ra khi v ch khi c t nht mt trong hai bin c A v B xy ra.
Bin c AB xy ra khi v ch khi c hai bin c A v B ng thi xy ra.
Bin c A xy ra khi v ch khi A khng xy ra.
d) Bin c xung khc
Hai bin c gi l xung khc nu chng khng th xy ra trong cng mt php th.
e) Bin c ng kh nng
Cc bin c c gi l ng kh nng nu chng c cng kh nng xut hin khi tin
hnh php th.
f) Bin c c lp
Cc bin c c gi l c lp nu vic xy ra ca mt bin c khng nh hng g n
vic xy ra ca nhng bin c cn li.
3

5. nh ngha xc sut
Nu khng gian mu gm n bin c s cp ng kh nng v bin c A gm m bin c s
cp th xc sut ca bin c A l ( )
m
P A
n
= .
Nhn xt : 0 ( ) 1. ( ) 1. ( ) 0 P A P P s s O = C =

VD6. Mt bnh ng 5 vin bi, trong c 3 vin bi xanh v 2 vin bi . Ly ngu nhin ra hai
vin bi. Tnh xc sut c hai vin bi xanh.
Gii. C

2
5
10 C =

cch chn 2 vin bi trong 5 bi. (khng gian mu gm 10 phn t).
C

2
3
3 C =

cch chn 2 bi xanh trong 3 bi (y l s phn t ca bin c ang xt).
Do xc sut ly c 2 bi xanh l 3/10.

6. Cng thc cng xc sut
a) Nu A v B l hai bin c xung khc th P(A B ) = P(A) + P(B).
b) Nu A v B l hai bin c ty th P (A B ) = P(A) + P( B) P (AB).
c) ( ) 1 ( ) P A P A =
.

VD7. Trong bnh ng 10 vin bi trong c 4 vin bi . Ly ngu nhin 3 vin . Tnh xc sut
a) Ly c mt hoc hai vin bi .
b) Ly c t nht mt vin bi .
Gii.
a) t A
1
l bin c trong 3 vin ly ra c ng mt vin v A
2
l bin c trong 3 vin ly
ra c ng hai vin . Ta phi tnh xc sut ca bin c A l bin c trong ba vin ly ra
c mt hoc hai vin . Cc bin c A
1
v A
2
l xung khc . Do
P(A
1
A
2
) = P(A
1
) + P(A
2
).
4

1 2
4 6
1 3
10
2 1
4 6
2 3
10
1
( )
2
3
( )
10
1 3 4
( )
2 10 5
C C
P A
C
C C
P A
C
P A
= =
= =
= + =

b) Gi B l bin c ly c t nht mt vin bi th
3
6
3
10
( ) 1 ( ) 1
C
P B P B
C
= =
.
VD8. Mt lp hc c 50 hc sinh, trong c 12 hc sinh gii Ton, 8 hc sinh gii Vn
v 2 hc sinh gii c Vn ln Ton. Chn ngu nhin mt hc sinh . Tnh xc sut chn
c mt hc sinh gii Vn hay Ton (gii c hai mn cng tt).
Gii. Gi A l bin c chn c hc sinh gii Ton , B l bin c chn c hc sinh gii
Vn. Ta cn tnh P(A B). Ta c

12
( )
50
8
( )
50
2
( )
50
12 8 2
( ) 0, 36.
50 50 50
P A
P B
P A B
P A B
=
=
=
= + =

7. Cng thc nhn xc sut
Nu A v B l hai bin c c lp th P(AB) = P(A).P(B) .
VD9. Hai ngi bn X v Y cng i cu c. Xc sut X cu c t nht mt con l 0,1.
Xc sut Y cu c t nht mt con l 0,15. Tnh xc sut hai bn X, Y khng tr v tay
khng.
Gii. Xc sut X tr v tay khng l
P(A) = 1 0,1 = 0,9.
Xc sut Y tr v tay khng l
P(B) = 1 0,15 = 0,85.
Cc bin c A v B l c lp. Vy xc sut c X v Y tr v tay khng l
5

P(AB) = P(A). P(B) = 0,9 . 0,85 = 0,765.
Vy sau bui cu c, gom s c cu c, xc sut hai bn c t nht mt con l
1 P ( A B) = 1 0,765 = 0, 235.
8. Bin ngu nhin ri rc
i lng X c gi l bin ngu nhin ri rc nu n nhn gi tr bng s thuc mt tp hu
hn no v gi tr y l ngu nhin khng d on trc c.
VD10. Gieo ng xu 5 ln lin tip. K hiu X l s ln xut hin mt nga th X l bin ngu
nhin ri rc, gi tr ca X l mt s thuc tp {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5}.
9. Phn b xc sut ca bin ngu nhin ri rc
Cho X l i lng ngu nhin ri rc nhn cc gi tr x
1
, x
2
, , x
n
. Ga s P(X = x
k
) = p
k
.
Bng sau y c gi l bng phn b xc sut ca bin ngu nhin ri rc X.
X x
1
x
2
x
3
. x
n

P p
1
p
2
p
3
. p
n

Ch : p
1
+ p
2
+ p
3
+ + p
n
= 1 .
10. K vng, phng sai v lch chun ca bin ngu nhin ri rc
Cho bin ngu nhin ri rc nh trong mc 9.
a) K vng ca X, k hiu l E(X), l mt s c tnh theo cng thc:
E(X) = x
1
p
1
+ x
2
p
2
+ + x
n
p
n
.
b) Phng sai ca X, k hiu l V(X) l mt s c tnh theo cng thc
2
1
( ) ( ) , ( ).
n
i i
i
V X x p trong do E X
=
= =

Ch

2 2
1
( ) .
n
i i
i
V X x p
=
=

c) Cn bc hai ca phng sai , k hiu l o(X) , c gi l lch chun ca X, ngha l
( ) ( ). X V X o =



II. BI TP MU
BT1. Gieo hai con xc xc. Tnh xc sut tng s chm hai mt trn bng 5.
6

Gii. Khng gian mu l O = { (1,1), (1,2),, (6, 6)} gm 36 bin c s cp ng kh nng.
Bin c c tng s chm bng 5 l tp con A = { (1,4), (2,3), (3,2), (4,1) } gm 4 phn
t . Vy
4 1
( )
36 9
P A = = .
BT2 . Mt v s s c 4 ch s. Khi quay s , nu v ca bn mua c s trng hon ton vi
kt qu th bn c gii nht. Nu v ca bn mua c ng 3 ch s trng vi 3 ch s ca
kt qu (k c v tr) th bn trng gii nh. Bn An mua mt v x s.
a) Tnh xc sut An trng gii nht.
b) Tnh xc sut An trng gii nh.
Gii.
a) S kt qu ng kh nng l 10
4
v ch c mt kt qu trng vi s v ca An. Do xc
sut trng gii nht ca An l
1
0, 0001
10000
= .
b) C 9 v sai khc hng n v ( so vi s trng gii nht), tng t cng c 9 v sai khc
hng chc, hng trm, hng ngn, hng vn. Do c 9+9+9+9 =36 v trng gii nh .
Vy xc sut trng gii nh ca An l
36
0, 0036
10000
= .
BT3. Mt lp hc c 30 hc sinh, trong c c 10 n. Chn ngu nhin 3 ngi trc lp. Tnh
xc sut trong 3 ngi c ng mt n.
Gii. S trng hp ng kh nng l
3
30
C . Gi A l bin c c ng mt n trong 3 ngi c
chn th s trng hp ng kh nng thun li cho bin c A l
1 2
10 20
C C . Xc sut ca bin c
A l
1 2
10 20
3
30
95
( )
203
C C
P A
C

= = .
BT4. Mt c quan c 100 ngi, trong c 60 nam. S gn c quan l 50, trong s ny c
35 nam. Nhng ngi nam hoc gn c quan th phi trc m. Chn ngu nhin mt ngi
trong c quan. Tnh xc sut ngi phi trc m.
Gii. Gi A l bin c ngi l nam, B l bin c ngi gn c quan. Khi bin c
A B l bin c ngi phi trc m. Ta c
60 50 35 75
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 0, 75
100 100 100 100
P A B P A P B P A B = + = + = = .
7

BT5. C 3 hp phn. Hp th nht c 2 vin trng 3 vin mu ; hp th hai c 4 vin trng 7
vin mu; hp th ba c 3 vin trng 5 vin mu. Ly ngu nhin t mi hp ra mt vin.
a) Tnh xc sut c 3 vin ly ra u trng.
b) Tnh xc sut trong 3 vin ly ra c hai vin trng.
Gii. Gi A, B, C l bin c vin phn ly ra t hp th nht, th hai, th ba l vin trng. Ba
bin c ny c lp.
a) Bin c c ba vin u trng l ABC.
2 4 3 3
( ) ( ). ( ). ( ) . . .
15 11 8 35
P A B C P A P B P C = = =
b) Bin c 3 vin ly ra c 2 vin trng l
.
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (
2 4 5 2 7 3 3 4 3 59
15 11 8 15118 5 11 8 220
F ABC ABC ABC
P F P ABC ABC ABC P ABC P ABC P AB
= + +
= + + = + +
= + + =

BT6. Mt l hng cha 10 sn phm, trong c 6 sn phm tt v 4 sn phm xu. Chn ngu
nhin t l hng 2 sn phm. Gi X l s sn phm tt c trong hai sn phm chn ra .
a) Lp bng phn b xc sut ca X.
b) Tnh k vng, phng sai v lch chun ca X.
Gii.
a) Ta thy X l bin ngu nhin ri rc c th nhn cc gi tr l 0, 1, 2 . Ta c
0 2
6 4
0 2
10
1 1
6 4
1 2
10
2 0
6 4
2 2
10
2
( 0)
15
8
( 1)
15
1
( 2)
3
C C
p P X
C
C C
p P X
C
C C
p P X
C
= = = =
= = = =
= = = =

Vy bng phn b ca X l
X 0 1 2
P 2/15 8/15 1/3

b) K vng, phng sai v lch chun ca X
8

2 2 2 2
2 8 1
( ) 0 1 2 1, 2.
15 15 3
2 8 1
( ) 0 1 2 (1, 2) 32/ 75 0, 4267.
15 15 3
( ) ( ) 0, 4267 0, 6532.
E X
V X
X V X o
= + + =
= + + = =
= = =

III. BI TP TNG T.
BT1. Ta vit ngu nhin cc ch s 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 ln cc tm phiu, sau xp ngu
nghin thnh mt hng. Tnh xc sut c mt s chn.
S: 4/9.
BT2. Xp ngu nhin 5 ngi ngi vo mt ci bn di c 5 ch ngi . Tnh xc sut :
a) A v B ngi u bn.
b) A v B ngi cnh nhau.
Cng hi nh trn nhng xt bn trn m cc v tr hon ton nh nhau.
S a) 0,1. b) 0,4. Nu bn trn b) 0,5.
BT3. Xp ngu nhin 5 ngi A,B, C, D, E ln 7 toa tu. Tnh xc sut :
a) 5 ngi ln cng toa u.
b) 5 ngi ln cng mt toa.
c) 5 ngi ln 5 toa u.
d) 5 ngi ln 5 toa khc nhau.
e) A v B ln cng toa u.
f) A v B ln cng mt toa.
g) A v B ln cng toa u , C, D, E khng ln toa ny .
S: a) 1/7
5
; b) 1/7
4
; c) 120/7
5
; d)7.6.5.4.3/7
5
; e) 1/49; f)1/7; g) 6
3
/7
5
.
BT4. Mt sn phm phi ln lt qua 4 cng nhn gia cng c lp. Xc sut mi cng nhn
lm hng sn phm l 0,01.Tnh xc sut sn phm sut xng khng hng .
S : (0,99)
4
.
BT5. Ba x th c lp bn mi ngi mt vin vo 3 tm bia. Xc sut cc x th bn trng
bia ln lt l 0,7; 0, 8; 0,5. Tnh xc sut trong 3 vin c
a) Mt vin trng.
b) Hai vin trng.
c) Khng c vin no trng.
d) It nht mt vin trng.
9

S : a)0,22; b) 0,47; c)0,03; d) 0,97.
BT6. Gi A l tp hp cc s gm hai ch s khc nhau c lp thnh t cc ch s
1,2,3,4,5,6. Ly ngu nhin mt phn t ca A, tnh xc sut ly c s chn.
S: 2/15.
BT7. Mt bnh ng 8 vin bi xanh v 4 vin bi . Ly ngu nhin 3 vin bi. Tnh xc sut
c:
a) 3 vin xanh.
b) 3 vin .
c) 3 vin cng mu.
d) t nht hai vin xanh.
S:a) 14/55; b)1/55; c)3/11; d) 42/55.
BT8. Mt bnh ng 4 vin bi xanh, 3 vin bi v hai vin bi vng. Ly ngu nhin 2 vin bi.
Tnh xc sut c ;
a) 2 vin cng mu.
b) 2 vin khc mu.
S: a)5/18; b) 13/18.
BT9. Cho hai hp ng bi , mi hp ng 10 bi. Hp th nht ng 6 bi v 4 bi trng. Hp
th hai ng 7 bi v 3 bi trng. Rt ngu nhin t mi hp 2 bi.
a) Tnh xc sut c 2 bi v hai bi trng.
b) Gi X l bin ngu nhin ch s bi trong 4 bi c ly ra. Lp bng phn b xc sut
ca X.
S: a) 1/3. b)
X 0 1 2 3 4
P 2/225 22/225 1/3 91/225 7/45

BT10. Mt bnh ng 4 vin bi en v 6 vin bi trng. Ly ngu nhin 3 vin. Gi X l s vin
en c c. Lp bng phn b xc sut ca X.
S:
X 0 1 2 3
P 5/30 15/30/ 9/30 1/30

10

BT11. Gieo 3 con xc xc. Gi X l s con xc xc xut hin mt 6. Lp bng phn b xc sut
ca X.
S :
X 0 1 2 3
P 125/216 75/216 15/216 1/216