SouthChinaSea

[EastSea,WestPhilippineSea] [ hl ]
EmeritusProfessorCarlThayer Emeritus Professor Carl Thayer RegionalStudies(Security) AustralianCommandandStaffCollege l d d ff ll October25,2011

Outline
1. 2. 2 3. 4. Overview ConflictingClaims Conflicting Claims RecentDevelopment p DriversofSecurityTensions

1.Overview 1. Overview
StrategicImportance
W ld Worldssecondbusiestsealinesof db i t li f communication Hydrocarbonresources(oilandgas) Fisheries

SeaLinesofCommunication

SouthChinaSeaSLOCs South China Sea SLOCs

100,000shipstransitStraitsofMalaccaand Singaporeannually >25%ofworldstradedgoodspassthrough SouthChinaSea 25%ofalloilshipmentscarriedbyseapass throughStraits(11millionbarrelsor1.7 through Straits (11 million barrels or 1 7 missioncubicmetresperday)

PhysicalFeatures Physical Features

Semienclosedsea Dangerous grounds d ParacelIslands MacclesfieldBank l f ld k SpratlyIslands KalayaanIsland l l d Group

PatternsofOccupation
BinhMinh02 Incident ReedBank Incident

2.ConflictingSovereigntyClaims 2. Conflicting Sovereignty Claims

SouthChinaSea claimants: Taiwan(ROC) ( ) China Vietnam ThePhilippines Malaysia l Brunei

InternationalLaw International Law

United Nations Convention on Law of the Sea UnitedNationsConventiononLawoftheSea (UNCLOS) Balance rights of coastal and maritime states Balancerightsofcoastalandmaritimestates Doesnotprovideforsettlementof sovereigntyissues i i Establishestransitregimes
Territorialsea,ExclusiveEconomicZone,highseas (note:internationalwaters US)

EEZ Claims Cl i

KeyDevelopments
January1974ChinaseizessouthernParacels March1988ChineseVietnamesenavalclash March 1988 Chinese Vietnamese naval clash 1992ScramblefortheSpratlys 1995ChinaoccupiesMischiefReef 2002DeclarationonConductofPartiesinthe SouthChinaSea(DOC) 200508 Joint Marine Seismic Undertaking 2005 08JointMarineSeismicUndertaking May2009Submissionsonextended continentalshelves continental shelves

2002DOCSelf restraint 2002 DOC Selfrestraint

a. holdingdialoguesandexchangeofviews asappropriatebetweentheirdefense as appropriate between their defense andmilitaryofficials; b. ensuringjustandhumanetreatmentof gj allpersonswhoareeitherindangerorin distress;

2002DOCSelf Restraint 2002 DOC SelfRestraint

c. notifying,onavoluntarybasis,other Partiesconcernedofanyimpending y p g joint/combined militaryexercise;and d. exchanging,onavoluntarybasis, relevantinformation.

DOCCooperativeActivities DOC Cooperative Activities

a. marineenvironmentalprotection; b. marinescientificresearch; c. safetyofnavigationandcommunicationat c safety of navigation and communication at sea; d. searchandrescueoperation;and d search and rescue operation; and e. combatingtransnationalcrime,includingbut notlimitedtotraffickinginillicitdrugs,piracy l d ff k ll d andarmedrobberyatsea,andillegaltrafficin arms.

Chinas9dash U shapedline Ushaped line layingclaimto historic waters (80% waters(80% oftheSouth ChinaSea)

UNCommissiononLimitsofContinentalShelf May13,2009

3.RecentDevelopments
200710SouthChinaSeatensionsreemerge
AggressiveunilateralfishingbanimposedbyChina

2009USNSImpeccable 2009 USNS Impeccable incident 2010Chinascoreinterest July2010USnationalinterest J l 2010 US ti li t t 2011Chineseaggressiveassertiveness July2011GuidelinestoImplementDOC g Oct.2011ChinaVietnamAgreement

Date 25/2 2/3 24/4 6/5 11/5 11/5 21/5 26/5 9/6

IncidentsinvolvingChina/ChineseVessels PLANFrigatefiresatFilipinofishingboats MVVeritasVoyagerforcedfromReedBank PLAN/CMSshipsunloadconstructionmaterials ChineseMarinevesselspottedatBombayShoal Chinese Marine vessel spotted at Bombay Shoal TwojetaircraftintrudeintoRPairspace Chinaimposesunilateralfishingban CMS/SalvageShipsintrudeintoSouthernBank BinhMinh2seismiccablecut Viking2seismiccablereportedlycut Viking 2 seismic cable reportedly cut

ExplainingChina sBehaviour Explaining Chinas Behaviour

Role of multiple Chinese actors in South China RoleofmultipleChineseactorsinSouthChina Seapolicy Ultra nationalist voices teach Vietnam a Ultranationalistvoices teachVietnama secondlesson L d hi Leadershiptransitionatnextcongressofthe ii f h ChineseCommunistParty Buildupofcivilianmaritimejurisdiction enforcementfleet

4.DriversofCurrentTensions 4. Drivers of Current Tensions

EnergySecurity
Resource nationalism Resourcenationalism Nationalsovereignty

ChinaUSgeostrategicrivalry
WaningofUSprimacy Waning of US primacy

4a. Energy Security Chinas Future Future Energy gy Needs

Oiland Gas Deposits Deposits inEast Asia

EnergySecurity
Chineseestimatesare7or8times greaterthanUS/Japaneseestimates China: South China sea contains 219 China:SouthChinaseacontains219 billionbarrelsofoilreserves
US:28billionbarrelsofoil b ll b l f l

China:SouthChinaSeaoilreservesare nearlyaslargeasSaudiArabia

EnergySecurity
ChinaestimatesthattheSouthChinaSea contains contains
14timestheestimatesofitsoilreservesand 10 times more than its gas reserves 10timesmorethanitsgasreserves

Chinaclaimsthatitloosesabout20million tonsofoilannuallyorabout40%ofitstotal f il ll b 40% f i l offshoreproductionduetotheactivitiesof countriesintheSouthChinaSea t i i th S th Chi S Peakoil?

EnergySecurity Energy Security

CNOOC plans to invest US $31 billion to drill CNOOCplanstoinvestUS$31billiontodrill 800deepwaterwellsintheEastSea,Yellow SeaandSouthChinaSeawiththeaimof Sea and South China Sea with the aim of producing500milliontonsofoilby2020. Philippines plans to boost hydrocarbon Philippinesplanstoboosthydrocarbon reservesby40%innexttwodecades Vi Vietnamsdomesticgasdemandwilltripleby d i d d ill i l b 2025(WorldBank)

4b.China USGeo StrategicRivalry 4b. ChinaUS GeoStrategic Rivalry

ChinaseconomywillovertaketheU.S. Militarymodernization
Submarine fleet +aircraftcarrier(s) Submarinefleet aircraft carrier(s) Anticarrierballisticmissile

Anti access/area denial Antiaccess/areadenial FirstandSecondislandchain YulinNavalBase,HainanIsland

Hainan H i Island

FirstandSecondIslandChains

ChinasStringofPearls

YulinNaval Yulin Naval Base,Sanya 5Aug05to 5 A 05 t 28Feb08

YulinNavalBase

USNSImpeccableIncident2009

RegionalForceModernisation Regional Force Modernisation

Maritimedomainiscongested g andcontested Regionalarmsdynamic l d
Submarines,guidedmissilefrigates ,g g antishipmissiles,stealthtechnology UAVs (including sub surface) UAVs(includingsubsurface)

Territorialdefence thePhilippines

Conclusions
Sovereigntydisputesintractable DOCGuidelinesaworkinprogress Jointdevelopment? Joint development? MorebindingCodeofConduct? ChinaUSdifferonmilitaryactivitiesin EEZs EEZs
IncidentsatSeaAgreement?

Conclusions
Forcemodernizationhasresultedin maritimedomainbecomingmore congestedandcontested g Energynationalismontherise R Resourcecompetitioncouldaggravate ii ld maritimetensions MaritimeSecurityonregionalagenda
ADMM Plus and East Asia Summit ADMMPlusandEastAsiaSummit

SouthChinaSea [EastSea,WestPhilippineSea]
EmeritusProfessorCarlThayer Emeritus Professor Carl Thayer RegionalStudies(Security) AustralianCommandandStaffCollege l d d ff ll October25,2011

PremierPhamVanDongs Letter1958LettertoChina L tt 1958 L tt t Chi

theGovernmentofthe DemocraticRepublicof Vietnam(DRVN)recognizes andsupportsthedeclaration dated4thSeptember,1958of p , theGovernmentofthe PeoplesRepublicofChina determiningterritorial g territorialwaters. TheGovernmentoftheDRVN respectsthisdecisionandwill respects this decision and will giveinstructionstoitsState bodiestorespectthe12mile territorialwatersofChinainall territorial waters of China in all theirrelationswiththe[PRC] inmaritimeareas.