Jaivime Evaristo*

hosphorus is the basis for all life on Earth and is a key component in fertilizers in sustaining high crop yields, necessary in feeding a world population of 9 billion people by 2050. Yet, of the four major plant nutrients nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium, and sulfur vital to growing crops for food, feed, and fiber, the global resource amount of phosphorus is the least. Moreover, the worlds main source of phosphorus phosphate rock is non-renewable and is becoming increasingly scarce and expensive. It was estimated that approximately 85 percent of the processed phosphorus worldwide is used as agricultural fertilizer and as a mineral source for animal nutrition. This translates to 14.9 million tones (Mt)to nearly 19 Mt per year of phosphorus from mined phosphate rock for food production. However, a study in 2009 reported that only a fifth of this phosphorus actually reaches the consumers as food. The rest is lost, either permanently or temporarily, due to inefficiencies in stages from mining through to processing and consumption. These studies, therefore, underline two key facts about the global phosphorus supply chain: (1) that there are huge opportunities for improving efficient use and reuse of phosphorus; and, (2) that sustained supply chain leakages could eventually lead to rapid exhaustion of phosphate rock by which phosphorus and, therefore, global food security are anchored. This op-ed piece compares and contrasts the concepts of Peak Oil and Peak Phosphorus; explores the concept of Peak Phosphorus by presenting evidence for and against the same; examines the potential effects on the ecosystem and agribusiness if we reach Peak Phosphorus; comments on what should be done to avert a potential crisis as well as how businesses are contributing to a more sustainable use of phosphorus across the supply chain.

Hubbert Linearization models and predicts that nonrenewable resources will follow a peak production curve, and that the point at which this production reaches its peak is followed by periods of lowerquality, harder-to-access reserves, which in turn can impact on prices of the commodity and associated products. On the other hand, Peak Oil and Peak Phosphorus differ also in at least two key ways: (1) while oil can be replaced by what is now considered as alternative sources of energy like solar, wind, geothermal, etc., there is no substitute for phosphorus in agriculture, and (2) while oil is unavailable once it is used, phosphorus can be recovered in various stages in the global food production and consumption system, and reused within economic and technical limits.

The Chinese and the Japanese used human excreta or night soil as a fertilizer for centuries prior to the Industrial Revolution. When the German chemist, Justus von Liebig, formulated his mineral theory in 1840, it confirmed that the fertilizing effect of humus on plant growth was due to inorganic salts of phosphorus and nitrogen, and not organic matter or some mysterious ways as previously thought. Liebigs theory was widely adopted which led to the growth of phosphorus fertilizer manufacturing in 18th-century Europe in a manner where the feedstock was sourced from locally available waste products such as human excreta, industrial organic waste by-products, animal dung, and other slaughter by-products. However, the highly localized model of phosphorus
*Author Jaivime Evaristo is pursuing Hydrogeology in the Master of Science in Applied Geosciences program at the University of Pennsylvania. **IGEL is a Wharton-led, Penn-wide initiative to facilitate research, events and curriculum on business and the environment. IGEL Research Briefs are written by students on relevant issues in business and the environment. Learn more at http:// environment.wharton.upenn.edu

The concepts Peak Oil and Peak Phosphorus are similar in at least two key ways: (1) both are finite nonrenewable resources, and 2) both concepts are predicated on Hubbert Linearization.

fertilizer production was later replaced by the importation of phosphorus materials during the midto-late 19th century as demand grew steadily with industrialization and rapid urbanization. This shift culminated in the mining and processing of phosphate rock, which was regarded as an unlimited source of concentrated phosphorus. Together with milestone developments decades prior to the Green Revolution of the mid-20th century especially the Haber-Bosch process in artificial nitrogen fertilizer production phosphate rock mining and processing led to the rapid development of mineral fertilizer production. However, the Sanitation Revolution, which started in mid-19th century and evolved as a response to the health hazards posed by the old practices in waste management, fundamentally changed the way wastes were disposed. Moreover, as the distances between cities and agricultural fields increased, the focus shifted from land-based to water-based disposal of waste thereby effectively transforming the phosphorus flow in agriculture from a closed-loop, phosphorus-recycling system to a linear, throughput system. The problem with this linear system is not only that it poses threats to environmental quality and biodiversity as a result of phosphorus (and nitrogen) contamination in the bodies of water but also that it is unsustainable considering the finite nature of phosphate rock.

Fig. 1. Indicative Peak Phosphorus curve, illustrating that global P reserves are also likely to peak after which production will be significantly reduced (Jasinski, 2006; European Fertilizer Manufacturers Association, 2000). Source: Cordell et al. (2009)

Proponents of Peak Phosphorus argue that these developments affecting the phosphorus fertilizer industry all point to the inevitability of a global peak in phosphorus production between 2030 and 2040 (see Fig. 1).

2. An ever-expanding linear phosphorus system As stated earlier, only a fifth of the phosphorus from mined phosphate rock is actually consumed by hu mans as food. Phosphorus losses from the farm due to erosion are estimated at around 8 Mt per year; Therefore, we can say that the main argument for from crops due to pests, diseases, wild animal con Peak Phosphorus is centered on the finite nature of sumption, force majeure, etc. at 3 Mt per year; from phosphate rock reserves; and, that the rate by which post-harvest at 0.9 Mt per year, from the food com the world approaches this peak is a function of modity chain due to losses in distribution, retail, both the phosphate rock reserves and a sustained, if household or institutional food waste at 1 Mt per year. not an ever-expanding, linear, throughput system. In addition, a total of 2.7 Mt per year is estimated as To be able to appreciate the arguments for Peak phosphorus lost during mining and fertilizer produc Phosphorus, let us quickly examine some salient tion. On the other end of the supply chain, of the 3 Mt features of the latter two factors. per year of phosphorus consumed by humans, an esti mated 2.7 Mt is lost to landfills and non-arable soil as 1. Global phosphate rock reserves well as to inland or coastal waters. Overall, a total of The main phosphate rock reserves are found in 18.3 Mt per year of phosphorus is being lost mostly just a few countries like Morocco, China, and ending up in bodies of water thereby resulting in en the United States. Across the EU, the only opervironmental problems like ational source of phosphate rock is a relatively eutrophication. small mine in Finland. The Peak Phosphorus concept argues that the critical point is not In summary, according to the when 100% of the reserves are depleted, but raproponents of the Peak Phosther when the high quality, easily accessible rephorus concept, the finite nature serves have been depleted. Already, some studof phosphate rock and this ies report that the remaining phosphate rock is leaky, unsustainable linear lower in phosphorus concentration (%P2O5), model only hasten the inevitahigher in contaminants, and more difficult to bility of Peak Phosphorus. access, thereby requiring more energy to extract and produce, and more money to refine and ship.

It is important to stress that there is agreement from both sides of the Peak Phosphorus debate that the supply of phosphate rock will eventually become scarce. Therefore, what the skeptics are arguing against the Peak Phosphorus concept is not the fundamental and inevitable exhaustibility of the phosphate rock reserves but the actual timing of reserve exhaustion. The non-profit International Fertilizer Development Center (IFDC) conducted a major survey of global PR resources and reserves, which was published in September 2010. A notable feature of the study was the attempt to standardize the use of the reserve-resource terminology. IFDC defines a reserve as phosphate rock that can be economically produced at the time of the determination to make suitable products, reported as tons of phosphorus concentrate. This definition implies that reserves are dynamic. On the other hand, a resource is that phosphate reserve of any grade that may be produced at some time in the future, including reserves. The study found that as of 2010, the world has some 60,000 Mt of reserves (phosphate rock product) and 290,000 Mt of resources (ore potential). These numbers are in stark contrast to the 16,000 Mt reserves estimated by the USGS in 2010.

On a slightly different note, some experts have addressed with optimism the challenges of lower-grade phosphate rock. They suggest that market forces will lead to new technologies to improve the efficiency of phosphate rock extraction and beneficiation. And perhaps most important of all developments that the Peak Phosphorus skeptics might consider as an added boost to their argument is the recently revised phosphate rock reserve-resource estimates by the USGS. In January 2011, as a result of the 2010 IFDC Study and new data from Morocco, the USGS revised the world reserve estimates from 16,000 Mt in 2010 to 65,000 Mt in 2011. In summary, according to skeptics of the Peak Phosphorus concept, phosphorus will eventually run out just not as quickly as Peak Phosphorus proponents suggested.

In addition to some inherent environmental consequences of phosphate rock mining and processing i.e. greenhouse gas emissions from mining through to processing and transport as well as the problem of eutrophication due to the leakage of phosphorus into inland and coastal waters, it can be inferred that one of the desired or beneficial main effects of a hypothetical Peak Phosphorus world would be reduced eutrophication and a mitigated or averted ecosystem degradation While proponents of Peak Phosphorus use the inall because of a consequently reduced phosphorus increasing prevalence of lower-grade phosphate rock puts into the system. Although market forces, as argued as evidence for imminent Peak Phosphorus, the by some experts, will encourage the development of new skeptics use the same as evidence to the contrary. technologies to improve the efficiency of phosphate rock For example, in the past, phosphate ore grades were extraction and beneficiation; theoretically, a long-term sought at 70 Bone Phosphate of Lime (BPL) or decline in phosphate rock production will at this point higher. Today, lower BPL grades of 50 and below become inevitable. Then, as phosphate rock production are being mined. IFDC argues that this explains the declines and therefore phosphorus fertilizer production, significant difference in estimates between the the demand for food from a growing population will USGS and IFDC. An example of this would be Mohopefully result in heightened and integrated measures rocco, which according to the USGS has some 5,700 to recover phosphorus losses and reuse of the same in Mt of reserves left, but which the IFDC estimated to the global food production and consumption system. still have 51,000 Mt. Resource wise, IFDC estimated Morocco to have significantly even more at Environmentally, a Peak Phosphorus world would be 170,000 Mt. beneficial given the linear phosphorus fluxes from a food production and consumption system that is strucThe 2010 IFDC Study concludes that assuming current rate of production, the world phosphate rock Along with peak oil and water shortconcentrate reserves are available to between 300 ages, the prospect of peak phosphorus and 400 years, considerably longer than most studies including the USGS (2010) estimate. It adds that in the context of a global climate there is no indication that a Peak Phosphorus event change could pose serious security will occur in the next 20 to 25 years, contrary to the risks to a lot of countries. ones proposed by a number of scientists.

turally leaky, unsustainable, and ecologically disastrous. However, on the agribusiness side, a Peak Phosphorus world would be catastrophic because a growing scarcity of phosphorus along the confluence of resource pressures from a growing population and the absence of sustainable phosphorus recovery and reuse technologies and policies could only mean higher food prices and, therefore, a volatile global food security system. Along with peak oil and water shortages, the prospect of peak phosphorus in the context of a global climate change could pose serious security risks to a lot of countries.

Fig. 2 illustrates how more can be achieved from demand management measures; however, already significant improvements can also be achieved just by managing what we now so readily dump into landfills and waterways. For example, there are already some commercially viable processes for the precipitation of phosphorus from effluent water streams. Companies like Ostara in Canada, with support from a major company in the wastewater sector, Veolia Environnement, already has the technology to recover phosphorus in a form struvite suitable for use as fertilizer. Struvite has been shown to be as available to plants as from triple superphosphate commercial fertilizer. In the US, Ostara has three commercial nutrient recovery facilities: in Portland, Oregon; in Suffolk, Virginia; and, in York, Pennsylvania. The company also expects to see the construction completion of Europes first phosphorus recovery plant for the UKs Thames Water at its Slough Sewage Treatment Works. This facility will recover phosphorus and ammonia from wastewater streams and transform them into environmentally-friendly, premiumquality fertilizer. Across the world, various collaborative models have emerged with the vision of accelerating technological innovations and ensuring commercial viability in terms of phosphorus recovery and reuse. As green technologies are all enriched in innovations and as demand for these products and services grows partly due to evolving regulatory policies opportunities for start-ups and venture capitalists proportionately abound. In the end, it appears that the optimal way to effect change on the environment is to tap on the fountain of collaborative ingenuity at the start-up level; as well as on the existing know-how and resources of businesses and ancillary systems like private equity and venture capital.

First of all, the debate around phosphorus should elevate from the level of Peak Phosphorus timing to one that collectively recognizes the finite and exhaustible nature of phosphate rock reserves regardless of whether a conceptual peak is coming in the next 20, 30, 100, or 400 years. As a recent study succinctly put it: the fate of humankind on this planet may, indeed, rest on this recognition factor. Secondly, a multi-faceted approach needs to be employed in increasing phosphorus use efficiency, recovery, and reuse (see Fig. 2). Scientists from a recent study used a systems framework for phosphorus recovery and reuse options. They reported that meeting long-term phosphorus demand would likely require demand management measures to increase phosphorus use efficiency by two-thirds, and the remaining third could be met through a high recovery rate of phosphorus from human excreta, manure, food waste, and mining waste. Given how far modern societies have changed from a closed-loop phosphorus-recycling system to a present-day linear or open system, it is clear that transitioning back to a high phosphorus recovery and reuse society could entail significant financial, technological, and political investments.
Fig. 2. A sustainable scenario for meeting longterm future phosphorus demand through phosphorus use efficiency and recovery. Source: Cordell et al. (2009)

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The growth in available scientific literature about phosphorus use efficiency, recovery, and reuse in the last 10 to 15 years whether or not in explicit contexts of the Peak Phosphorus argument points to a pressing need for managing this finite, albeit recoverable, precious resource. Any sigh of relief brought about by new and revised estimates of global phosphate rock reserves by expert authorities is only ephemeral. Unless we do something or a myriad of things on the demand side; and/or put plugs on the leaks across the global food production and consumption system, we will inevitably reach Peak Phosphorus and usable phosphorus exhaustion at some point in the future. Whether that some point is 30, 100, or 400 years is almost beside the point if we are to uphold the values of transgenerational responsibility and empathy. Clearly, it is in our best interests if we start widespread advocacies for more sustainable, ecologically beneficial practices in managing our waste streams today. Just as some technocrats trust that market forces will eventually find better ways of managing the threats of phosphate rock exhaustion, the same market forces could also drive a consequential commercialization and institutionalization of existing and future technologies in recovering phosphorus from our sewers, reducing leakage during mining and processing, and increasing phosphorus retention in our arable soils. The concept of Peak Oil imparts a lot of lessons for mankind with respect to phosphorus. The debate henceforth needs not to be about peak timing but about peak aversion and therefore more scientific research to better aid policy formulation and integration in a theoretic but effectively pragmatic, cradle-to-cradle

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