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COMMODITY
Market

Week : 14th to 18th Nov'2011

REPORT

WEEKLY
Analyst Speak

Precious Metals Remain Up On Greek Debt Concerns

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Week : 14th to 18th Nov'2011

Week : 14th to 18th Nov'2011

Economic Data
Date
Mon Nov 14 Tue Nov 15

Fundamental Market Overview

Economic Data Forecast Previous
8.44%

Time
14th-18th 6:30pm 7:00pm 7:00pm 7:00pm 7:00pm 7:00pm 8:30pm 11:00pm

Currency
USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD

Market
watch

GOLD EDGES UP AS ITALY FEAR EASES; EUROPE WORRIES LINGER

with a 0.8 percent gain. U.S. Gold rose 0.6 percent to $1,770.10, on course for its third straight week of gains. Investment flows into Gold-backed exchange-traded funds continued, even as Gold slumped for three consecutive sessions. SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest Gold ETF, reported a fifth straight day of gains in its holdings - standing at 1,268.666 tonnes by Nov. 10, highest since late August.

Mortgage Delinquencies FOMC Member Evans Speaks Core Retail Sales m/m PPI m/m Retail Sales m/m Core PPI m/m Empire State Manufacturing Index Bus iness Inventories m/m FOMC Member Fisher Speaks Core CPI m/m CPI m/m TIC Long-Term Purchas es Capacity Utilization Rate Industrial Production m/m NAHB Housing Mark et Index Crude Oil Inventories Building Permits Unemployment Claims Housing Starts Philly Fed Manufacturing Index Natural Gas Storage FOMC Member Dudley Speaks FOMC Member Dudley Speaks CB Leading Index m/m Treasury Currency Report 0.5% 0.60M 397K 0.61M 9.3 0.1% 0.0% 63.4B 77.7% 0.5% 17 0.2% -0.1% 0.3% 0.2% -2.0 0.2%

0.6% 0.8% 1.1% 0.2% -8.5 0.5%

Gold posted modest gains on Friday, following encouraging signs that Italy was making an effort to ease its political turmoil and avert an economic disaster, while investors remain nervous about the unfolding euro zone debt crisis. The uncertainty in solving the two-year-old debt crisis is likely to support safe haven interest in Gold, but a widespread sell-off in response to disastrous news out of the euro zone could sink Gold as investors are forced to liquidate their positions to cover losses elsewhere. Spot Gold edged up half a percent to $1,768.60 an ounce, on course for a third straight week of rises

Market
watch

CRUDE AT 15-WK HIGH ON EUROPE HOPES

will be rehired to carry out the liquidation of the firm. The CME Group Inc will provide a $300 million guarantee to prod MF Global's bankruptcy trustee into releasing customer funds. Due to the federal Veterans Day holiday, release of the weekly trader positions report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission was delayed until Monday. FUNDAMENTALS On the New York Mercantile Exchange, December Crude settled at $98.99 a barrel, up $1.21, or 1.24 percent, highest for a front-month contract since July 26. It gained $4.73 or 5.02 percent for the week and extended gains for a sixth straight week. UPCOMING DATA/EVENTS API weekly petroleum stocks data, 4:30 p.m. EST (2130 GMT) on Tuesday

Wed Nov 16

7:00pm 7:00pm 7:30pm 7:45pm 7:45pm 8:30pm 9:00pm

0.1% 0.3% 57.9B 77.4% 0.2% 18 -1.4M 0.59M 390K 0.66M 8.7 37B

Thu Nov 17

7:00pm 7:00pm 7:00pm 8:30pm 9:00pm 11:20pm

U.S. Crude oil futures settled at their highest level in 15 weeks on Friday as investors cheered efforts by Italy and Greece to tackle their political and debt problems, and on positive U.S. consumer sentiment. U.S. Crude rose for the seventh time in eight days as the developments in Europe pushed the euro to two-week highs against the dollar, further encouraging risk trade in equities and commodities. Americans became more hopeful about the U.S. economic outlook in November, pushing consumer sentiment to a five-month high, though they still have a gloomy view of personal finances. Also aiding Crude futures, NYMEX December heating oil closed at the highest perch for a front-month contract since May, extending gains after the midweek government inventory report showed distillate stocks fell sharply by 6.0 million barrels last week. Oil options trading was focused on the call side of the ledger and December position cleanup before expiration on Nov. 15 as the U.S. Crude market took aim at the psychologically important level of $100 a barrel. In other market news, bankrupt MF Global fired all 1,066 of its brokerage employees and its bankruptcy trustee said up to 200

Market
watch

COPPER UP; ITALY, GREECE ON TRACK TO FORM UNITY GOVTS

China's imports surged in October as exports grew at their slowest rate in months, suggesting efforts to tilt the economy towards domestic demand may be offsetting the external weakness that has dragged on economic growth this year. Striking workers at Peru's No. 3 Copper mine Cerro Verde exchanged labor contract proposals with company representatives on Thursday, in a sign that both sides could find a way out of a six-week-old wage dispute. The ShFE announced on Thursday it was raising trading margins of Copper and aluminium by 1 percent, to 9 percent for Copper and 7 percent for aluminium.

Fri Nov 18 Sat Nov 19

6:45pm 8:30pm Tentative

0.2%

Copper edged up on Friday after Italian and Greek politicians moved to form unity governments to champion the measures needed to tackle the euro zone debt crisis, but lingering worries over a global economic slowdown will keep investors cautious. Three-month Copper on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.7 percent to $7,530 a tonne, after falling to a two-week low and ending down 2 percent previously. It is headed for a fall of 4 percent on the week, its second such loss in a row. The mostactive January Copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 1.4 percent, to 55,610 Yuan ($8,763.14) per tonne, also after touching a two-week low on Thursday and closing down 5.4 percent. The contract is down 6.3 percent on the week. Italy moved closer to a national unity government on Thursday, following Greece's lead in seeking a respected veteran technocrat to pilot painful economic reforms in a bid to avert a euro zone bond market meltdown.

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Week : 14th to 18th Nov'2011

Week : 14th to 18th Nov'2011

GOLD

SILVER

Weekly Chart

Expert

Observation

Expert
WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 1911 1844 1816 1776 1748 1708 1640

Observation

MARKET OVERVIEW
COMEX Gold is in a technically consolidating on charts. Last week COMEX Gold was trading on upside and closed near to its week high. In the coming week 1650$ will act as a major support in COMEX Gold and 1840$ will act as a major resistance.

MARKET OVERVIEW
COMEX Silver is technically in a slightly upward for short term. Last week COMEX Silver was trading in a range for the whole week. For the upcoming week 3000$ and 2800$ are the crucial supports and 3800$ and 4100$ are crucial resistance in COMEX Silver. In MCX Silver, 62000 and 65000 will act as major resistance and 52000 and 48000 will act as major supports.

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 3882 3660 3564 3438 3342 3216 2994

STRATEGY
For the next week traders can use buy on lower level strategy if COMEX Gold sustains above 1780 $ an ounce, then above1805 $ it can test the level of 1820$/1835$/1855$ $ an ounce. And in MCX Gold above 29080 it can test the level of 29280/29480/29680. Trade by keeping the strict stop losses. Major support for COMEX Gold in the coming week is 1700$ and 1600$. Major resistance for COMEX Gold in the coming week is 1840$ and 1900$ Major support in MCX Gold is 28000and 27100

STRATEGY
Technically COMEX Silver is consolidating on charts. For the next week traders can use buy on lower level strategy if Silver sustains above the level of 3530$ an ounce, then above 3560$ COMEX Silver can test the level of 3660/3720$ an ounce. And in MCX Silver sustains above 58300 then it can test the level of 59200/60500, Trade by keeping the proper stop losses.

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Weekly Chart

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Week : 14th to 18th Nov'2011

Week : 14th to 18th Nov'2011

CRUDE

COPPER

330

Weekly Chart

Expert

Observation

Expert
WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 109.55 103.38 101.18 97.21 95.01 91.04 84.87

Observation

MARKET OVERVIEW
NYMEX Crude is in consolidation phase. Last week Crude Oil was able to sustain at higher levels and close near to week high. For the coming week 85$ and 80 $ will act as major supports and 102$ and 106$ a barrel will be a major resistance in NYMEX Crude. In MCX Crude Oil major resistance is found at 5100 and 5300 and major supports will be 4600 and 4350.

MARKET OVERVIEW
Copper is in a consolidation phase and traders should use the strategy of buy on lower levels. Last week COMEX Copper was neither sustain on higher level nor at lower level. If next week COMEX Copper sustains above the level of 348 then above the level of 351 Copper can test the level of 356/361/366. In MCX, Copper sustains above 385 then it can test the level of 390/395/399 if it does not break the level of 374 on the downside.

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 415.00 381.40 363.90 347.90 330.30 314.30 280.80

STRATEGY
For the next week traders can use sell on higher level strategy, if NYMEX Crude sustains below the level of 102 $ a barrel then below the level of 97.50 $ a barrel it can test the level of 95.5$/94.0$ a barrel and in MCX if Crude sustains below 4870 then below 4740 it can test the level of 4680/4620/4560 in this week. Trade by keeping the proper stop loss.

STRATEGY
For the upcoming week 375 and 395 will act as major resistance and 330 and 310 will act as major supports in COMEX Copper. For MCX Copper major resistance would be 415 and 425 and supports would be found at 375and 355.

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Weekly Chart

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Week : 14th to 18th Nov'2011

Week : 14th to 18th Nov'2011

NATURAL GAS
4.300

USD / INR
51.00

47.50 3.200

Weekly Chart

Expert

Observation

Expert
WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 4.061 3.849 3.716 3.637 3.504 3.425 3.213

Observation

MARKET OVERVIEW
Natural Gas is in a consolidation phase and traders should use the strategy of selling on higher levels. Last week Natural Gas was down for most part of the week and close near to its week low. If next week Natural Gas sustains below the level of 3.560 $ then below the level of 3.500 $ Natural Gas can test the level of 3.420$/3.340 $ and above 3.630 $ Natural Gas can go up and test the level of 3.710/3.800 $. In MCX, if Natural Gas sustains below 178 in the coming week then it can test the level of 173/169/165, if it does not break the level of 188 on the upside.

MARKET OVERVIEW
USD/INR is consolidating on charts so traders can use the strategy of buy on lower levels. If next week USD/INR sustains above the level of 50.0000 then above the level of 50.4000 USD/INR can test the level of 50.5500/50.7000

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 52.6100 51.1900 50.5900 49.7700 49.1700 48.3500 46.9300

STRATEGY
For the upcoming week 3.300$ and 3.100$ will act as major supports and 4.150$ and 4.450$ will act as major resistance in US Natural Gas. For MCX Natural Gas major resistance would be 205 and 215, supports would be found at 165 and 155.

STRATEGY
For the upcoming week 48.0000 and 46.7000 will act as major supports and 50.9000 and 51.8000 will act as major resistance in USD/INR.

Weekly Chart

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Week : 14th to 18th Nov'2011

Week : 14th to 18th Nov'2011

Weekly Market Update Commodity Watch

Symbol Exchange Expiry Date Commodity Name Price Unit Previous Close Open High Low Close Qty. Traded Net Open Interest Weekly TurnOver * (Rs. in Lakhs)
6401356.47 4900684.27 2530975.17 4696790.40 504223.26 283405.38 378212 452644.86 164892.32
* Turnover Till Friday

GOLD SILVER COPPER CRUDE OIL NATURAL GAS LEAD ZINC NICKEL ALUMINIUM

MCX MCX MCX MCX MCX MCX MCX MCX MCX

5-DEC -11 5-DEC -11 30-NOV -11 17-NOV -11 25-NOV -11 30-NOV -11 30-NOV -11 30-NOV -11 30-NOV -11

GOLD SILVER COPPER CRUDE OIL NATURAL GAS LEAD ZINC NICKEL ALUMINIUM

RS. /10GM. RS. / KG. RS. / KG. RS. / BBL. RS./ MM BTU RS. / KG. RS. / KG. RS. / KG. RS. / KG.

27904

27984 56495 387.5 4620 186.1 99.5 96 928.4 105.5

29123 58338 394.65 4958 189.2 101.55 98.7 931.7 108.55

27984 55688 373.7 4620 179.5 97.1 94.55 912.2 104.25

28886

224929 286466 662178 981316 221469 57507 78561 198125 31163

982 1436 -3.15 324 -6.5 -0.15 0.3 -12.9 2.3

12296

56258

57694

12808

387.65

384.5

24148

4618

4942

34796

186.6

180.1

19411

100.05

99.9

3838

96.3

96.6

3320

931.3

918.4

17736

105.6

107.9

1916

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Week : 14th to 18th Nov'2011

Week : 14th to 18th Nov'2011

Weekly Market Update Commodity Watch

International Market
Commodity GOLD SILVER COPPER CRUDE NATURAL GAS USD/INR Closing Price % Change

Weekly Pivots
Scripts
GOLD SILVER COPPER CRUDE OIL NATURAL GAS LEAD ZINC NICKEL ALUMINUM

R3
30942.33 62540.00 426.18 5516.00 202.33 108.42 104.92 959.77 115.50

R2
29803.33 59890.00 405.23 5178.00 192.63 103.97 100.77 940.27 111.20

R1
29344.67 58792.00 394.87 5060.00 186.37 101.93 98.68 929.33 109.55

PP
28664.33 57240.00 384.28 4840.00 182.93 99.52 96.62 920.77 106.90

S1
28205.67 56142.00 373.92 4722.00 176.67 97.48 94.53 909.83 105.25

S2
27525.33 54590.00 363.33 4502.00 173.23 95.07 92.47 901.27 102.60

S3
26386.33 51940.00 342.38 4164.00 163.53 90.62 88.32 881.77 98.30

1788.1 3468.2 346.35 98.99 3.584 50

1.82 1.75 -2.83 5.02 -5.26 2.06

Weekly Gainers
Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price % Change

Weekly Losers
Commodity Expiry Date % Closing Change Price

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CRUDE OIL GOLD SILVER

17 NOV,2011 05 DEC,2011 05 DEC,2011

4942 3.52 57694

7.02 3.52 2.55

NATURAL GAS 25 NOV,2011 180.10 NICKEL COPPER 30 NOV,2011 918.40 30 NOV,2011 384.50

-3.48 -1.39 -0.81

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