Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Roberta Russell & Bernard W. Taylor, III
Beni Asllani
Copyright 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. University of Tennessee at Chattanooga
Lecture Outline
Elements of Waiting Line Analysis
Waiting Line Analysis and Quality
Single Server Models
Multiple Server Model
Servicing System
Servers
Queue or
Customer Waiting Line
Arrivals Exit
Waiting Line Analysis
Operating characteristics
average values for characteristics that describe the
performance of a waiting line system
Queue
A single waiting line
Waiting line system consists of
Arrivals
Servers
Waiting line structures
Calling population
Source of customers
Infinite large enough that one more customer can
always arrive to be served
Finite countable number of potential customers
Arrival rate (λ)
Frequency of customer arrivals at waiting line
system
Typically follows Poisson distribution
Population Source
Finite Infinite
Example: Number of Example: The
machines needing number of people
repair when a who could wait in
company only has a line for
three machines. gasoline.
Elements of a Waiting Line (cont.)
Service time
Often follows negative exponential
distribution
Average service rate = μ
Arrival rate (λ) must be less than service
rate (μ) or system never clears out
Queue discipline
Order in which customers are served
First come, first served is most common
Length can be infinite or finite
Infinite is most common
Finite is limited by some physical
Channels are the number of parallel servers
Single channel
Multiple channels
Phases denote number of sequential servers the
customer must go through
Single phase
Multiple phases
Steady state
A constant, average value for performance characteristics that
system will reach after a long time
Service cost
Expected costs
Waiting Costs
Level of service
Copyright 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 17-11
Waiting Line Costs and Quality
Service
Traditional view is that the level of
service should coincide with minimum
point on total cost curve
TQM approach is that absolute quality
service will be the most costeffective in
the long run
• Examples:
• The number of calls received by a
switchboard during a given period of time.
• The number of machine breakdowns in a day
• The number of traffic accidents at a given
intersection during a given time period.
The Poisson Probability
Distribution
x is the number of events that occur in a period
of time or space during which an average of µ
such events can be expected to occur. The
probability of k occurrences of this event is
µ k e−µ
P( x = k ) =
k!
For values of k = 0, 1, 2, … The mean and
standard deviation of the Poisson random
variable are
Mean: µ
Standard deviation: σ = µ
Example
The average number of traffic accidents on a
certain section of highway is two per week.
Find the probability of exactly one accident
during a one-week period.
k −µ 1 −2
µ e 2e −2
P ( x = 1) = = = 2e = .2707
k! 1!
The Exponential Distribution
Used to describe the amount of time between
occurrences of random events
Probability Distribution, for an Exponential Random Variable
x
Probability Density function: f ( x ) = λ e − λx
, ( x > 0)
1
Mean: µ =
λ
1
Standard Deviation: σ =
λ
The Exponential Distribution
Shape of the distribution
is determined by the
value of λ
Mean is equal to
Standard deviation
The Exponential Distribution
To find the area A to the right of a,
A = P( x ≥ a ) = e − λa
A can be calculated
using a calculator or
with tables
The Exponential Distribution
If λ = .5, what is the p(a>5)?
− λa − ( .5 ) 5 −2.5
A=e =e =e
From tables, A = .082085
Probability that A > 5 is
.082085
The Exponential Distribution
a) If λ = .16, what are the µ and σ?
b) What is the p(0<a<5)?
c) What is the p(0<a< µ+2σ)
a) µ = σ = 1/ λ = 1/.16 = 6.25
The Exponential Distribution
b) P(x>a) = eλa
P(x>5) = e(.16)5 = e.8
= .449329
P(x<5) = 1P(x>5)
= 1.449329 = .550671
The Exponential Distribution
c) What is the p(0 < a < µ+2σ)?
Find the complement of the
area above µ+2σ
P = 1P(x>18.75)
= 1 eλ(18.75) = 1 e.16(18.75)
= 1 e3 = 1 .049787
= .950213
Single-server Models
All assume Poisson arrival rate
Variations
Exponential service times
General (or unknown) distribution of service times
Constant service times
Exponential service times with finite queue length
Exponential service times with finite calling
population
Average number of λ2
Lq =
customers in the waiting line µ (µ -
λ)
Copyright 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 17-25
Formulas for Single-
Server Model (cont.)
Average time a customer 1 L
W = =
spends in the queuing system µ - λ
λ
Average time a customer
λ
spends waiting in line to Wq =
be served µ (µ -
λ)
Probability that the server
λ
is busy and the customer ρ =
has to wait µ
Probability of no
P0 = 1 - λ
24
customers in the = 1- =
system µ 30
0.20
Average number
λ 24
of customers in L = = =4
µ -λ 30 - 24
the system
Probability the
I = 1 - ρ = 1 - 0.80 = 0.20
server will be idle
Possible Alternatives
Another employee to pack up purchases
service rate will increase from 30 customers to 40
customers per hour
waiting time will reduce to only 2.25 minutes
Another checkout counter
arrival rate at each register will decrease from 24 to 12 per
hour
customer waiting time will be 1.33 minutes
Determining whether these improvements are worth
the cost to achieve them is the crux of waiting line
analysis
Copyright 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 17-29
Constant Service Times
Constant service times
occur with machinery
and automated
equipment
Constant service times
are a special case of the
singleserver model with
undefined service times
Average number of λ2
Lq =
customers in queue 2 µ (µ - λ )
Average number of λ
L = Lq +
customers in system µ
λ2 (10)2
Lq = = = 1.14 cars waiting
2µ (µ - λ ) 2(13.3)(13.3 - 10)
Lq
Wq = = 1.14/10 = .114 hour or 6.84 minutes
λ
Probability that no 1 - λ /µ
P0 =
customers are in system 1 - (λ /µ )M + 1
n
Probability of exactly n λ
customers in system Pn = (P0) for n ≤ M
µ
Probability that
no cars are in 1 - λ /µ 1 - 20/30
P0 = = = 0.38
the system 1 - (λ /µ )M + 1 1 - (20/30)5
Probability of n=M 4
exactly 4 cars in λ 20
Pn = (P0) = (0.38) = 0.076
the system µ 30
Average number
λ /µ (M + 1)(λ /µ )M + 1
of cars in the L= - = 1.24
system 1 - λ /µ 1 - (λ /µ )M + 1
1
Probability that no P0 =
N n
N! λ
customers are in system
Σ
n=0 (N - n)! µ
n
Probability of exactly n N! λ
customers in system Pn = P0 where n = 1, 2, ..., N
(N - n)! µ
Average number of λ +
Lq = N - (1- P0)
customers in queue µ
λ
Copyright 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 17-38
Finite Calling Population (cont.)
Average number of
L = Lq + (1 - P0)
customers in system
Probability that no
P0 = 0.652
trucks are in the system
Average number of
Lq = 0.169
trucks in the queue
Average number of
L = 0.169 + (1 - 0.652) = .520
trucks in system
Average time truck Average time truck
spends in queue spends in system
Wq = 1.74 days W = 5.33 days
Σ
n=0
1
n!
λ
µ
1
+ s!
λ
µ
sµ
sµ - λ
s
Probability an arriving 1 λ sµ
customer must wait Pw = P0
s! µ sµ -
λ
Average number of λµ (λ /µ )s λ
L = P0 +
customers in system (s - 1)!(sµ - λ )2 µ
Average number of λ
Lq = L -
customers in queue µ
Probability no students
P0 = 0.045
are in the system
Number of students in
L = 6
the service area
Number of students
Lq = L - λ /µ = 3.5
waiting to be served
Probability that a
Pw = 0.703
student must wait