SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.85
R Square
0.73
Adjusted R Square0.7
Standard Error
5
Observations
12
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

1
10
11

SS
673.92
250.33
924.25

MS
673.92
25.03

F
Significance F
26.92
0

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept
48.13
4.92
9.79
0
37.18
59.08
37.18
59.08
X Variable 1
-8.66
1.67
-5.19
0
-12.38
-4.94
-12.38
-4.94

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.9
R Square
0.81
Adjusted R Square
0.77
Standard Error
4.4
Observations
12
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

2
9
11

SS
750.13
174.12
924.25

MS
375.07
19.35

F
Significance F
19.39
0

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept
78.78
16.03
4.91
0
42.51
115.04
42.51
115.04
X Variable 1
-30.46
11.08
-2.75
0.02
-55.52
-5.39
-55.52
-5.39
X Variable 2
3.54
1.78
1.98
0.08
-0.49
7.58
-0.49
7.58

Chapter 3 Regression Analysis

Section 3.1 Simple Regression
Example 3.1 Honda Civic (I)
Table 3.1 Data Summary
Sample
Number
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

Weight Efficiency
(1000 kg) (km/L)
1.70
33
2.15
27
4.02
15
2.53
18
3.09
19
2.65
24
3.18
20
2.38
23
1.92
42
3.64
16
1.95
36
4.58
12

Figure 3.1 Weight versus Efficiency

Efficiency (km/L)

Weight versus Efficiency

45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00
3.50
Weight (1000 kg)

Table 3.2 Coefficients

Sample
Efficiency
Weight (X)
Number
(Y)
1
1.70
33.00
2
2.15
27.00

X2

XY

2.89
4.62

56.10
58.05

4.00

4.50

5.00

3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Total
n
Average

4.02
2.53
3.09
2.65
3.18
2.38
1.92
3.64
1.95
4.58
33.79

15.00
18.00
19.00
24.00
20.00
23.00
42.00
16.00
36.00
12.00
285.00
12

2.82

23.75

16.16
6.40
9.55
7.02
10.11
5.66
3.69
13.25
3.80
20.98
104.14
b1
b0

60.30
45.54
58.71
63.60
63.60
54.74
80.64
58.24
70.20
54.96
724.68
-8.66
48.13

Table 3.3 Forecast

Forecast
Number
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

Weight Efficiency
(1000 kg) (km/L)
1.00
39.47
1.50
35.14
2.00
30.81
2.50
26.48
3.00
22.16
3.50
17.83
4.00
13.50
4.50
9.17
5.00
4.84
5.50
0.51
6.00
-3.82
6.50
-8.15

Section 3.2 Simple Regression with Data Analysis

Example 3.2 Honda Civic (II)
Table 3.4 Data Summary
Row\Col
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100

B
C
Weight Efficiency
(1000 kg) (km/L)
1.70
33
2.15
27
4.02
15
2.53
18
3.09
19
2.65
24

101
102
103
104
105
106

3.18
2.38
1.92
3.64
1.95
4.58

20
23
42
16
36
12

Table 3.5 Summary Output

SUMMARY
EXCEL COMPUTATION
Regression Statistics /Tools (/Add-ins /Analysis ToolPak if not yet enabled)
Multiple R
0.85 /Data Analysis /Regression /OK
R Square
$C$95:$C$106
0.73 Input Y Range:
$B$95:$B$106
0.7 Input X Range:
Adj. R Square
95%
(default)
5 Confidence Level:
Standard Error
12 OK
Observations
ANOVA
df
SS
MS
F
Sig. F
Regression
1
673.92
673.92
26.92
0
Residual
10
250.33
25.03
11
924.25
Total Figure
t Stat
P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%
Constant (b) Coefficient Std Error
Intercept b0
48.13
4.92
9.79
0
37.18
59.08
Weight b1
-8.66
1.67
-5.19
0
-12.38
-4.94
Section 3.3 Quadratic Regression
Example 3.3 Honda Civic (III)
Table 3.6 Data Summary
Row\Col
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147

B
C
Weight Efficiency
(1000 kg) (km/L)
1.70
33.00
2.15
27.00
4.02
15.00
2.53
18.00
3.09
19.00
2.65
24.00
3.18
20.00
2.38
23.00
1.92
42.00
3.64
16.00
1.95
36.00
4.58
12.00

Table 3.7 Quadratic Conversion

Row\Col
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167

B
C
D
Weight
Efficiency
Weight^2
(1000 kg)
(km/L)
1.70
2.89
33
2.15
4.62
27
4.02
16.16
15
2.53
6.40
18
3.09
9.55
19
2.65
7.02
24
3.18
10.11
20
2.38
5.66
23
1.92
3.69
42
3.64
13.25
16
1.95
3.80
36
4.58
20.98
12

Figure 3.2 Weight versus Efficiency

Efficiency (km/L)

Weight versus Efficiency

45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00
3.50
Weight (1000 kg)

4.00

4.50

Table 3.8 Summary Output

SUMMARY
EXCEL COMPUTATION
Regression Statistics /Tools (/Add-ins /Analysis ToolPak if not yet enabled)
Multiple R
0.901 /Data Analysis /Regression /OK
R Square
$D$156:$D$167
0.812 Input Y Range:
$B$156:$C$167
0.770 Input X Range:
Adj. R Square
95%
(default)
4.398 Confidence Level:
Standard Error
12 OK
Observations
ANOVA
df
SS
MS
F
Sig. F
Regression
2
750.13
375.07
19.39
0
Residual
9
174.12
19.35

5.00

11
924.25
Total Figure
Constant (b) Coefficient Std Error
Intercept b0
Weight b1
Weight2 b2

78.775
-30.456

16.03
11.08

3.542

1.78

t Stat
P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%
4.91
0
42.51
115.04
-2.75
0.02
-55.52
-5.39
1.98

0.08

-0.49

7.58

Table 3.9 Forecast

Row\Col
210
211
212
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223

B
C
D
Weight
Efficiency
Weight^2
(1000 kg)
(km/L)
1.00
1.00
51.9
1.50
2.25
41.1
2.00
4.00
32.0
2.50
6.25
24.8
3.00
9.00
19.3
3.50
12.25
15.6
4.00
16.00
13.6
4.50
20.25
13.4
5.00
25.00
15.0
#model is not applicable anymore
5.50
30.25
18.4
6.00
36.00
23.5
6.50
42.25
30.4

Section 3.4 Mean Absolute Error (MAE)

Example 3.4 Honda Civic (IV)
Table 3.10 Data Summary
Sample
Number
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

Weight Efficiency
(1000 kg) (km/L)
1.70
33
2.15
27
4.02
15
2.53
18
3.09
19
2.65
24
3.18
20
2.38
23
1.92
42
3.64
16
1.95
36
4.58
12

Table 3.11 Mean Absolute Error (MAE)

Sample
Number
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

Weight
(1000 kg)
1.70
2.15
4.02
2.53
3.09
2.65
3.18
2.38
1.92
3.64
1.95
4.58
n

Efficiency (km/L)
Actual
Simple Quadratic
33.00
33.4
37.2
27.00
29.5
29.7
15.00
13.3
13.6
18.00
26.2
24.4
19.00
21.4
18.5
24.00
25.2
22.9
20.00
20.6
17.7
23.00
27.5
26.4
42.00
31.5
33.4
16.00
16.6
14.8
36.00
31.2
32.9
12.00
8.5
13.6
12

Actual - Forecast
Simple Quadratic
-0.4
-4.2
-2.5
-2.7
1.7
1.4
-8.2
-6.4
-2.4
0.5
-1.2
1.1
-0.6
2.3
-4.5
-3.4
10.5
8.6
-0.6
1.2
4.8
3.1
3.5
-1.6
Total
MAE
Minimum?

Absolute Value
Simple Quadratic
0.4
4.2
2.5
2.7
1.7
1.4
8.2
6.4
2.4
0.5
1.2
1.1
0.6
2.3
4.5
3.4
10.5
8.6
0.6
1.2
4.8
3.1
3.5
1.6
40.9
36.4
3.41
3.04
no
yes