United States Africa Command Public Affairs Office 6 February 2011 USAFRICOM - related news stories

Good morning. Please find attached news clips related to U.S. Africa Command and Africa, along with upcoming events of interest for February 6, 2011. Of interest in todays clips:
Pipelines in Southern Nigeria for first time in a year. Unrest continues in Northern Mali Senegals opposition forms front to oppose Wade

Provided in text format for remote reading. Links work more effectively when this message is viewed as in HTML format. U.S. Africa Command Public Affairs Please send questions or comments to: africom-pao@africom.mil 421-2687 (+49-711-729-2687) -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Top News related to U.S. Africa Command and Africa Nigeria oil militants Mend 'hit Eni Bayelsa pipeline' (BBC) http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-16896508 5 February 2012 Militants say they have destroyed an oil pipeline in southern Nigeria, in their first attack in more than a year. Tuareg rebels attack Mali town of Kidal(al Jazeera) http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2012/02/20122416445129368.html 4 February 2012 Wire Services Red Cross says nearly 10,000 people have fled escalating battles between army and armed separatists in northern regions.

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Wade opponents form united front (France 24) http://www.france24.com/en/20120205-senegal-opposition-forms-anti-abdoulaye-wadefront-election 5 February 2012 News Wires Senegal's fractious opposition has agreed to pool together in an effort to force President Abdoulaye Wade to withdraw from next months presidential election, claiming his bid for a third term in office violates the country's constitution. NEWSMAKER: Fallen firebrand Malema ignited S.African politics (Reuters) http://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/idAFJOE81401720120205 5 February 2012 By Marius Bosch and Pascal Fletcher In less than four years, ANC youth leader Julius Malema turned himself into an outspoken irritant for South Africa's ruling party as he regularly and pointedly reminded its leaders how they had failed the country's poor majority. US sees Djibouti base as centralnto its plans (The East AFrica ) http://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/news/US+sees+Djibouti+base+as+central+to+its+plans+ /-/2558/1320628/-/git7hs/-/ 5 February 2012 Kevin Kelley The recent rescue of two hostages in Somalia by US Special Forces highlights the strategic significance of the American installation in Djibouti, which is being touted as a model for future US bases in Africa and elsewhere. So alia fa i e over but e erge cy re ai s, says UN (Fra ce 24) http://www.france24.com/en/20120203-somalia-starvation-famine-united-nationshumanitarian-aid 3 February 2012 News Wires The UN Somalia Food Security Nutrition Analysis Unit and the US famine warning network FEWS NET said in a statement Friday that famine conditions have ended in Somalia, but that humanitarian conditions are still dire. Uga da: The LRA - Not Yet a Spe t Force (allAfrica.co ) http://allafrica.com/stories/201202031286.html 3 February 2012 The belief that the end is nigh for Joseph Kony's Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) - a small but ruthless transnational armed group operating in four African states - underestimates its resilience and overestimates the unity and capability of the forces ranged against it, say analysts.
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-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------UN News Service Africa Briefs http://www.un.org/apps/news/region.asp?Region=AFRICA Full Articles on UN Website In Cte dIvoire, UN mission to decide on election certification next week 3 February The head of the United Nations peacekeeping mission in Cte dIvoire (UNOCI) said today that he hopes to decide next week on the partial certification of parliamentary elections held in the West African country near the end of last year. UN backs vaccination campaign after yellow fever outbreaks hit Cameroon and Ghana 3 February The United Nations is backing a mass vaccination campaign under way in northern Cameroon, where a new outbreak of yellow fever has killed at least seven people. Mozambique: UN agency begins food distribution to flood victims 3 February The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) has begun distributing rations in Mozambique, where an estimated 70,000 people are in urgent need of assistance after the country was pounded by two tropical storms. UN voices concern over fresh round of killings in South Sudan 3 February The United Nations human rights office today voiced concern over a cattle raid in a northern state of South Sudan earlier this week, which has led to 78 deaths and numerous injuries among civilians, most of whom were women and children. (Full Articles on UN Website) ### -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Upcoming Events of Interest: 6 FEB 2012 WHEN: 3 p.m. WHAT: House Armed Services Committee: Doing Business with DOD, Contracting and Regulatory Issues WHERE: Rayburn House Office Building, 2212 WHEN: 12:00 2:00 p.m. WHAT: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP) Discussion on the Global

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Economy in 2012. Speakers: Olivier Blanchard, IMF Chief Economist; Desmond Lachman, American Enterprise Institute; Uri Dadush, CEIP; moderator: Vikram Nehru, CEIP. WHERE: CEIP, 1779 Massachusetts Avenue, NW CONTACT: 202-483-7600; web site: www.carnegieendowment.org 7 FEB 2012 WHEN: 10 a.m. WHAT: House Foreign Affairs Hearing - Export Controls Arms Sales and Reform: Balancing US Interests Part II WHERE: Rayburn House Office Building Rm 2172 8 FEB 2012 WHEN: 2:00 3:30 p.m. WHAT: Brookings Institution Discussion on Meet the Press at Brookings: The Egypt Revolution One Year On. Speakers: Moderator: David Gregory, Anchor, Meet the Press, NBC News; Panelists: Thomas Friedman, Columnist, The New York Times; Shadi Hamid, Director of Research, Brookings Doha Center; Martin S. Indyk, Vice President and Director, Foreign Policy; and Tamara Wittes, Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, U.S. Department of State. WHERE: Brookings, 1775 Massachusetts Avenue, NW CONTACT: 202-797-6105, events@brookings.edu; web site: www.brookings.edu WHEN: 3:00 4:30 p.m. WHAT: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Book Event on Strategic Vision: America and the Crisis of Global Power. Speakers: Introduction by John Hamre, CSIS; remarks by Zbigniew Brzezinski, former National Security Adviser and CSIS Counselor and Trustee and author of Strategic Vision: America and the Crisis of Global Power; Interviewed by David Ignatius, The Washington Post. WHERE: Willard Room, Willard InterContinental Hotel, 1401 Pennsylvania Avenue NW CONTACT: To RSVP please e-mail externalrelations@csis.org; web site: www.csis.org -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Whats new on www.africom.mil USS Simpson Concludes Visit to Casablanca http://www.africom.mil/getArticle.asp?art=7598&lang=0 3 Feb 2012 U.S. Naval Forces Africa The guided-missile frigate USS Simpson (FFG 56) and senior staff members from U.S. Naval Forces Europe-Africa concluded a three-day port visit of training, band engagements, and senior staff talks in Casablanca, February 2, 2012.
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### __________________________________________________________ FULL TEXT Nigeria oil militants Mend 'hit Eni Bayelsa pipeline' (BBC) http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-16896508 5 February 2012 Militants say they have destroyed an oil pipeline in southern Nigeria, in their first attack in more than a year. A statement claiming to be from Mend, a militant group that signed an amnesty in 2009, said the attack was a reminder of their presence in the area. Witnesses said they heard an explosion at a pipeline run by Italian firm Eni in Bayelsa state on Saturday night. But the firm has not commented, and the authorities said they could not confirm that an attack had taken place. The Movement for Emancipation of the Niger Delta (Mend), were once a feared militant group whose bombings and kidnappings paralysed the industry. They claimed to be fighting for more rights and a share of oil wealth for local people. Many of the group's leaders renounced violence after signing a truce with the government in 2009, and the group's last confirmed attack came in November 2010. But a statement emailed to media outlets on Sunday said the group had "attacked and destroyed" an Eni pipeline near the Brass River. "This relatively insignificant attack is a reminder of our presence in the creeks of the Niger Delta and a sign of things to come," said the email. It came from an account in the name of Jomo Gbomo, a name long assumed to be an alias of Mend's leaders. ### Tuareg rebels attack Mali town of Kidal(al Jazeera) http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2012/02/20122416445129368.html 4 February 2012

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Wire Services Red Cross says nearly 10,000 people have fled escalating battles between army and armed separatists in northern regions. Ethnic Tuareg rebels have launched a fierce offensive against Mali's security forces in a bid to seize the northern town of Kidal. The attack on Saturday is further evidence that Tuareg rebels have significantly increased their attacks against government control in Mali. Kidal is the latest and most significant town targeted by the fighters, who have gained ground in other northern areas following weeks of clashes with government forces. The Tuareg rebels have been bolstered by an influx of fighters from Libya who joined their movement after the late Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi was toppled last year. Hama Sidahmed, a Europe-based spokesman for the rebels, said their ambition was to take control over Kidal. "We will take the two military camps and occupy the town." The sporadic firing of heavy weapons have been heard across the town as government forces fought to fend off the fighters, according the Reuters news agency. In recent days, thousands of civilians reportedly fled the town in anticipation of the fighting. Civilians fleeing Some Tuareg leaders say many of their community have also fled the southern city of Bamako, fearing reprisals after violent demonstrations this week. About 3,500 people had crossed west into Mauritania, said a Mauritanian official, speaking on the condition of anonymity. The International Committee for the Red Cross (ICRC) said on Friday that nearly 10,000 people had fled into Niger after fighting between the army and armed groups in the area around the northeastern cities of Menaka and Anderamboucane. The Tuareg rebels say they are fighting to secure the independence of Azawad, an area that takes in Mali's three northern regions, one of which is Kidal. The government accused the rebels of atrocities and collaborating with al-Qaeda, a charge rejected by the MNLA.

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The ICRC said that some refugees were being looked after by local families while others had set up makeshift camps nearby. ### Wade opponents form united front (France 24) http://www.france24.com/en/20120205-senegal-opposition-forms-anti-abdoulaye-wadefront-election 5 February 2012 News Wires REUTERS - Senegalese President Abdoulaye Wade's main rivals pledged on Saturday to campaign together in an effort to force him to withdraw from an election next month. The group did not give details on how they would try to prevent Wade from running for a third term in the Feb. 26 vote. But the pledge, a day before campaigning officially opened, underscored rising tensions in a country that has long been an island of stability in West Africa. Wade's candidacy was approved last week by the country's top legal body, but it has sparked riots on the streets and drawn criticism from foreign donors, especially the United States, which said the bid posed a risk to Senegal's stability. "We will take part in the election campaign in order to step up the fight ... to force the withdrawal of the candidacy of Abdoulaye Wade," read a document that was signed by eight of Wade's main rivals. The group includes music star Youssou N'Dour, whose bid was blocked by the same legal body that signed off on Wade's application; two former prime ministers, Macky Sall and Idrissa Seck; and veteran opposition leaders Moustapha Niasse and Ousmane Tanor Dieng. Unified front Wade's rivals have so far struggled to forge a unified front against him. Having himself led street protests before coming to power in 2000, Wade has openly mocked the opposition for failing to mobilise a serious challenge and dismissed foreign criticism. But his rivals sought to put their divisions behind them. "We will channel all our efforts to one single, united and targeted campaign: to force Abdoulaye Wade to withdraw his candidacy and to hold an election without him," they said in the statement.

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Wade's rivals say his bid for a third term breaches rules setting a two-term limit, but the president argues that his first term should not be counted as limits were added in 2001, after he had already begun his time in power. At least four people have been killed in street clashes over Wade's candidacy. World leaders have called on all sides to show restraint, warning that the West African nation's democratic credentials were at stake. Opposition leaders, who have come together with civil society organisations under the M-23 banner, have called for a demonstration in Dakar on Sunday. Violent street protests last June forced Wade to backtrack on proposed changes to the election law that were widely seen as aiding his re-election, but demonstrations against his candidacy so far have failed to gather the same momentum. ### NEWSMAKER: Fallen firebrand Malema ignited S.African politics (Reuters) http://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/idAFJOE81401720120205 5 February 2012 By Marius Bosch and Pascal Fletcher JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - In less than four years, ANC youth leader Julius Malema turned himself into an outspoken irritant for South Africa's ruling party as he regularly and pointedly reminded its leaders how they had failed the country's poor majority. On Saturday, after an African National Congress appeals panel upheld his suspension for bringing Africa's oldest liberation movement into disrepute, the banishment of the youthful rebel from party ranks seemed complete. The panel nevertheless decided to allow Malema and fellow suspended ANC Youth League colleagues an additional hearing to argue for a lighter penalty than his five-year suspension. A speedier return to the party may not salvage his ANC career, but some believe he could remain a player in South Africa's political scene, ahead of a key ANC leadership conference due at the end of this year. "Julius Malema will be back. He has political skills and instincts second to none. He has a long career ahead of him. It might feel like a big setback now, but he will be back," said Nic Borain, an independent political analyst.

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Malema, 30, had stamped his presence on South Africa's political life with his mocking criticism of President Jacob Zuma and his scathing reminders that the masses have yet to feel the full economic benefits of the end of apartheid 18 years ago. Adding to his notoriety, his repeated calls to nationalise South Africa's giant gold and platinum mines rattled investors and he stirred racial tensions by calling for a seizure of white-owned farm lands. In a relatively short time, he became one of the country's most influential and controversial politicians, whose support could boost candidates in the fractious party. He was seen as a potential kingmaker. Branded a demagogue, a reckless populist and even a future leader of Africa's biggest economy. But to many in South Africa, he was simply known by his nickname "Juju". Malema's militant speeches resonated with South Africa's unemployed black youths, many facing a bleak future. Supporters praised him for "speaking truth" when he repeatedly flayed Zuma's government for failing to deliver on the ANC's promise to give "a better life for all" when it took power in 1994 after decades of white-minority rule. SON OF A MAID Born into poverty as the son of a domestic worker employed by an Indian family in Limpopo, north of Johannesburg, Malema became politically active from an early age. He rose through the ranks to become president in 2008 of the ANC Youth League, founded decades before by political giants including Nelson Mandela and Walter Sisulu. Malema and a group of other power brokers ousted then President Thabo Mbkei in late 2007 from his leadership of the party and replaced him with Zuma, who became the country's president a little over a year later. Malema declared at the time he was ready to kill for Zuma. The two later fell out, and Zuma's foes wooed Malema whose supporters were young blacks, half of whom are jobless. A study by the South African Institute of Race Relations has said about half of people now aged 25-34 would never find work. Overall unemployment in South Africa is officially about 25 percent. Millions still live in squalid shack settlements clustered around big cities. Despite his age, Malema proved himself a shrewd political operator, using poverty and the plight of the youth to build a powerbase that was often at odds with the official party line.

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"With carefree abandon he knowingly gave the finger to the project of non-racialism, rubbished the notion of a Rainbow Nation and challenged the goals of the transition," journalist Fiona Forde wrote in a recent book on Malema. "He was a political entrepreneur operating in an environment of ample opportunity." SUSHI AND CHAMPAGNE A flamboyant lifestyle, including expensive watches and champagne parties, further drew poor youths to him. The newspaper City Press, in an article last year vetted by a judge before publication, said Malema had a slush fund for bribes used to finance his lavish living. He has denied any wrongdoing, and faces a criminal probe into his finances. But it was his outspoken comments and criticism of ANC leaders, including Zuma, that landed him in the hottest water. Even with a suspension hanging over him since late last year, an apparently unrepentant Malema had continued to attack Zuma - portraying him as "the shower man" in a mocking reference to widely criticised statement by the president that he had showered after having sex with an HIV-infected woman. Malema had been defending his actions in front of a party disciplinary panel since late August but failed to convince party officials of his innocence. The ANC disciplinary panel said in its November suspension decision that Malema had fostered divisions in the ANC and that he had brought the party into disrepute for calling for the overthrow of the elected government of neighbouring Botswana. Malema's appeal hearings were risky for both Zuma - who hopes to win a second term as ANC leader in December - and Malema, who had come out in support of Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe for the country's top job. But while thousands of enthusiastic supporters turned out to back the youthful rebel late last year, only a few dozen were outside ANC headquarters for the appeals hearing on Saturday. "Who rules the world? Juju! Juju!," they chanted. The low turnout suggested his political crown within the ANC may have slipped - for the moment at least. ###

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US sees Djibouti base as centralnto its plans (The East Africa ) http://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/news/US+sees+Djibouti+base+as+central+to+its+plans+ /-/2558/1320628/-/git7hs/-/ 5 February 2012 Kevin Kelley The recent rescue of two hostages in Somalia by US Special Forces highlights the strategic significance of the American installation in Djibouti, which is being touted as a model for future US bases in Africa and elsewhere. Camp Lemonnier, established in 2003 as the home of the Pentagons Combined Joint Task Force/Horn of Africa, was described by US Defence Secretary Leon Panetta during a December visit to Djibouti as the central location for continuing the effort against terrorism. A month later, the former French colonial base served as the launching pad for the helicopter raid organised by the US Africa Command that killed nine Somali pirates and freed their American and Danish captives. The success of that mission was hailed last week by Michele Flournoy, the Defence undersecretary for policy. In a speech at a National Security Symposium in Washington, Ms Flournoy suggested that Camp Lemonnier exemplifies the new ways in which the US intends to project its power around the world. A US military strategy for the coming years outlined recently by President Barack Obama puts emphasis on developing innovative, low-cost and small-footprint operations as Washington pursues new partnerships with a growing number of nations, including those in Africa and Latin America. Instead of mobilising massive military deployments such as those in Afghanistan and Iraq, the Pentagon will seek to economise during the next decade while still applying its muscle in support of American interests. Development of more bases similar to but perhaps smaller and less conspicuous than Camp Lemonnier is consistent with the US objective of paring its military budget but remaining capable of intervening quickly and decisively throughout the developing world. Camp Lemonniers growing prominence reflects its acquired role as the de facto operational centre in Africa for Africom, the US military command that is formally headquartered in Stuttgart, Germany. Soon after its launch five years ago, Africom undertook an embarrassingly unsuccessful round of consultations with African leaders concerning establishment of a permanent presence somewhere on the continent for the new military command.
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Liberia was the only black African country that publicly offered to host Africom. It has since become clear, however, that Djibouti is willing to serve unofficially in that capacity. Some of the approximately 3,500 US personnel stationed at Camp Lemonnier carry out civic-engagement missions similar to the hearts and minds initiatives undertaken as part of the US war in Vietnam. Professionals These doctors, veterinarians and engineers regularly provide health services and help improve local infrastructure in East Africa. Last month, for example a Combined Joint Task Force medical unit worked with Tanzanian health personnel in delivering care to some 2,100 women and children in and near Mtimbwani. But Camp Lemonniers primary purpose is to combat militants in much of Africa that are judged to pose a threat to US interests and allies. At the same time, Africom is increasingly overseeing fighting forces after having initially emphasised its soft power attributes. Africoms debut as a formidable military machine came when it directed the US air war in Libya that proved instrumental in achieving regime change there. Djibouti, a country of less than a million inhabitants, has given the United States the option to lease Camp Lemonnier until at least 2020. Led by President Ismail Omar Guelleh, Djiboutis government welcomes the US military presence, which provides the poor country with an important source of revenue. Djibouti is also closely allied with Ethiopia, which ranks as a key US strategic partner in East Africa. On its part, the US is clearly content to do business with Djibouti, even though the most recent State Department worldwide report on human rights cited multiple abuses by the countrys authorities, including corruption, prolonged detention, denial of fair trial, and restrictions on free speech and labour unions. For all its growing importance, Camp Lemonnier is not the only place in black Africa where the US conducts military operations. The Pentagon also flies drones from airfields in Ethiopia and the Seychelles while assisting Amisom forces in carrying out drone surveillance inside Somalia. ### Somalia famine over but emergency remains, says UN (France 24) http://www.france24.com/en/20120203-somalia-starvation-famine-united-nationshumanitarian-aid 3 February 2012
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News Wires The UN Somalia Food Security Nutrition Analysis Unit and the US famine warning network FEWS NET said in a statement Friday that famine conditions have ended in Somalia, but that humanitarian conditions are still dire. AFP - Famine conditions have ended in war-torn Somalia six months after they were declared, but the situation remains dire with nearly a third of the population needing emergency support, the UN said on Friday. "The United Nations declares an end to famine conditions in Somalia," the UN Somalia Food Security Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) and the US famine warning network, known as FEWS NET, said in a statement. "The combination of the massive scale-up in humanitarian assistance and an exceptional harvest have helped to improve the humanitarian situation," the statement added. Three areas had been in famine: southern Somalia's Middle Shabelle, in Afgoye -- the world's largest camp for displaced people -- and inside camps in the anarchic capital Mogadishu. However, those areas "have now improved to emergency level," the UN said, while warning that the situation remains critical. "The gains are fragile and will be reversed without continued support," said Mark Bowden, the UN Humanitarian Coordinator for Somalia. "There are 1.7 million people in southern Somalia still in crisis. Millions of people still need food, clean water, shelter and other assistance to survive and the situation is expected to deteriorate in May," Bowden added. Much of southern Somalia is controlled by Al-Qaeda linked Shebab fighters, who have imposed draconian restrictions on aid agencies wanting to support those struggling in the war-wracked region. The hardline Shebab are facing increasing pressure from government forces and regional armies, with Kenyan forces in the south, Ethiopia's army in the south and west, and the African Union troops in Mogadishu. Famine was first declared in Somalia's Southern Bakool and Lower Shabelle regions in July, but later spread to other areas. Three areas improved to emergency levels last November. Famine implies that at least 20 percent of households face extreme food shortages, with acute malnutrition in over 30 percent of people, and two deaths per 10,000 people every day, according to the UN definition.

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### Uganda: The LRA - Not Yet a Spent Force (allAfrica.com) http://allafrica.com/stories/201202031286.html 3 February 2012 ANALYSIS Johannesburg The belief that the end is nigh for Joseph Kony's Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) - a small but ruthless transnational armed group operating in four African states - underestimates its resilience and overestimates the unity and capability of the forces ranged against it, say analysts. The LRA is seen as being in "survival mode". It has a lightly armed 250-strong militia dispersed across a territory half the size of France, and uses "terror" tactics to subdue local populations and is facing a coordinated response from the armies of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Central African Republic (CAR), South Sudan, Uganda and the USA. In recent weeks African Union (AU) special envoy for affairs relating to the LRA Francisco Madeira, and the Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General Abou Moussa have toured Kinshasa, Bangui, Juba and Kampala to discuss regional military cooperation, following authorization from the AU Peace and Security Council in November 2011, with the support of the UN, for them to deal decisively with the LRA. Ashley Benner, a policy analyst at the Enough Project - a US NGO lobbying for an end to mass atrocity crimes - told IRIN: "The proposed AU intervention force will consist of approximately 3,500-5,000 troops from the four affected countries. The mandate and goals of the mission are to end the LRA, protect civilians, and lead to security and stability in the affected countries." The USA has deployed about 100 military advisers - they carry weapons for self-defence only - to assist the region's military forces, but Benner said this would not be sufficient. "The advisers need to be bolstered by more capable troops, greater intelligence and logistical capabilities, including helicopters, improved collaboration between regional forces, and increased efforts to encourage LRA members to leave the group," she added. Sandra Adong Oder, a senior researcher at the conflict management and peacebuilding unit at Pretoria-based think-tank the Institute for Security Studies, told IRIN the same military actors involved in previous and failed attempts to eradicate the LRA were involved in the AU initiative, and asked: "It [the initiative] may be doing more, [but] is it any different?" Top priority?

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The LRA was also not a top priority for the four affected countries: Kony's forces, were no longer operating in Uganda; they were more than 1,000km from Kinshasa and so not seen as a key security issue for the DRC; they are not threatening any economic interests or political constituencies in CAR; and South Sudan was grappling with more urgent security considerations, said Oder. In a research note entitled The AU's Regional Initiative Against the LRA: Prospects and Implications published on 30 January, Oder said: "The regional intervention force... is based on some assumptions that the LRA is an easy problem to solve, and that the insurgent group's threat capability has been reduced. This may prove to be a grave mistake... "The new force should therefore not merely improve on existing military operations, but needs to refrain from merely duplicating operational structures and techniques that do not work, while at the same time leaving the military command in the hands of national governments, which could fuel suspicion and intraregional tensions within the alliance, which in turn could severely limit cooperation and coordination - and hence the AU's overall ownership of the mission... "This time round, the consequences of another failure will be prohibitive, in the sense that once committed, the AU mission would then have to use all necessary force to avoid failure, and would be under immense pressure to escalate military involvement to ensure success," the note said. It should be remembered that the LRA only has to survive to succeed The International Working Group on the LRA, in a World Bank June 2011 report entitled: Diagnostic Study of the Lord's Resistance Army, written by Philip Lancaster and Guillaume Lacaille, said: "It should be remembered that the LRA only has to survive to succeed... "As long as it [the LRA] is present, it is capable of generating insecurity in the region. To survive, it needs only to avoid, as much as possible, direct contact with superior armed forces and continue to resupply itself from vulnerable civilians. As long as it retains the freedom to choose the time and place of its attacks, it retains the tactical and strategic initiative," the World Bank report said. In the past month, LRA Crisis Tracker, a real-time mapping platform for crimes committed by Kony's forces, has attributed six deaths and 14 abductions to the armed group. Ugandan leadership? Uganda, the regional military power, is expected to take the lead role in the military operations by virtue of its acknowledged professionalism compared to the region's other forces, and its close working relationship with US forces over the past few years,

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although its dominance in an intervention force could increase regional tensions, especially between Kampala and Kinshasa: Last year DRC President Joseph Kabila asked his counterpart Yoweri Museveni to halt operations in his country against the LRA by the Uganda People's Defence Force (UPDF), and it is unclear how this impasse will be resolved. Oder said although the Ugandan army was "overstretched" with its commitments to the AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), it had a personal score to settle with the LRA, after previous encounters had exposed the "weaknesses, corruption and competences" of the UPDF. "It's about saving face and pride," she said. A 2 February 2012 Enough Project report entitled Ensuring Success: Four Steps Beyond US Troops to End the War with the LRA by Sasha Lezhnev, said Uganda's best troops were in Somalia and it did not have any bases in the DRC. "Some 90 percent of LRA attacks over the past six months have taken place in [DR] Congo... The shortage of troops is also hurting civilian protection efforts, which are in urgent need of a boost." Skilled bush fighters The bush fighting skills of LRA fighters have been masked and overshadowed by their reputation as a ragtag bunch of bandits, marauding and raping, reliant on abducted children brainwashed into soldiering under Kony, and with an absolute disregard for human rights. The LRA is responsible for thousands of deaths and the displacement of hundreds of thousands of people across the four-country region. "We have ample evidence from reports of the past 20 years that the LRA are a force to be reckoned with. Ruthless as they are, their tactics are well adapted to the terrain and the nature of the forces they face," Philip Lancaster - former head of the disarmament, demobilization and reintegration division of the UN Mission in the DRC (MONUC), the predecessor of the current UN Organization Stabilization Mission in the DRC (MONUSCO), and coordinator of the UN Group of Experts on the Congo - said in an August 2011 article entitled the Lord's Resistance Army and Us. "The LRA make deliberate use of terror to tie up military forces and survive by hit-andrun attacks that are well-planned and flawlessly executed," he wrote. Their extraordinary ability to survive, even when constantly on the move, gives LRA fighters an edge over all pursuing armies LRA fighters value reconnaissance, are skilled in ambush techniques and the evasion of air surveillance, are trained in both irregular and regular forms of warfare and have adapted to different climatic regions from rainforests to arid wastelands. "Their extraordinary ability to survive, even when constantly on the move, gives LRA fighters an edge over all pursuing armies," the World Bank report said.

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The notion that the LRA's estimated 250 fighters and their dispersal into small cells indicates weakness, is misleading, the World Bank report said. "While the LRA has been weakened over the past two years, it is premature to regard them as lacking capacity, since the number of the core fighters is not much lower now than what it has been throughout the years." The response to any concerted military effort against them is likely to be accompanied by the LRA's "very crude way of operating" in using civilians as targets, Oder said. Civilian protection The Ugandan 2008 offensive against the LRA, Operation Lightning Thunder, resulted in a sharp rise in the number of LRA attacks on civilians, rather than a drop-off: There were two successive Christmas massacres in 2008 and 2009. "These events, particularly the massacre of December 2009 in the Makombo area of Haut Ul, DRC, provoked questions about the wisdom of offensive operations against the LRA without adequate accompanying measures to protect civilians in the area of operations," The World Bank report said. "The military response from UN peacekeeping and national forces has been totally inadequate insofar as they focus on providing limited static defence of a small number of civilian settlements. The LRA just find the ones that aren't protected. Since none of the armies deployed have a policy of pursuit after attack, the LRA consistently escape with loot and abducted recruits," says Lancaster's article. "A major component of the military operations to apprehend Kony and his senior leadership should be civilian protection," said Benner. Kony, an indicted war criminal, has also received an unexpected boost from the undermining of Uganda's Amnesty Act with the trial of former LRA commander Thomas Kwoyelo, which "is further worsening chances that LRA fighters will come out; the case has sparked fear of prosecution among the LRA ranks," the Enough Project report said. The UN Disarmament, Demobilization, Repatriation, Reintegration and Resettlement (UNDDRR) exercise has been viewed as a major weapon in deconstructing the LRA through its propaganda campaign to encourage defections. The Enough Project report quoted a former LRA captain who had defected from the armed group. "I spent 18 years with Kony. The only thing that can be effective now against the LRA is the gun. Don't leave the UPDF alone - the international community should step in. US advisers won't be effective, though. You need joint troops from other countries. Kony doesn't fear the US advisers because he knows the number [of Ugandan troops and US advisers] now is small. One LRA unit can defeat 10 UPDF units." [ This report does not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations ]

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