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Fordham University Symposium on Climate Change, Economics, and Energy Finance, 2012
Outline
Climate
Science General Remarks Climate Impacts Climate Risk Management Climate Ethics
You never prove anything in science Always uncertainties (maybe small, maybe big) However can be relatively sure about some things Once convinced, skeptical on contrarian claims Informs us about risk from climate change Input into public policy, e.g. on renewable energy
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Comparison of the spread of actual IPCC projections (2007) with observations of annual mean temperatures 1980-2011
Natural variation out (El Nios/La Nias, volcanoes, sun changes) => global warming exists, due to humans
Anyone speaking out of his field is as dumb as the next guy (paraphrasing Richard Feynman) Example: You dont want your cardiologist or your chiropractor - to give a cancer diagnosis Filter #1 = PhD in science Filter #2 = (earth) science faculty/research position at a recognized university, laboratory Filter #3 = substantial recent publications on climate science in peer-reviewed journals These are the filters: experts on climate science
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Who
Cranks exist in every scientific field, are almost always wrong, are not Galileo, are justly ignored.
In climate they get publicity and have outsize influence
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1. 2. 3. 4.
Deny global warming Deny human influence on climate Minimize climate impact risk Exaggerate cost of climate action mitigation
Tactical
shift made from #3, 4 to #1, 2 Oppose climate action, renewable energy Create doubt = tobacco tactic (Oreskes) Science cant prove so we shouldnt act
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Cargo Cult Science = Form without content (Feynman) Contrarian Fallacies (partial list)
Lawyer-like attacks nit-pick climate science (IPCC report) Promote ideas with little support (cosmic rays) Cherry-pick data (1998 temperature ) Ignore or overemphasize uncertainty (trends vs. noise) Malign climate models (ignore model back-testing success) Mathematical errors (principal components misuse) Irrelevant red herrings (Medieval Warming Period)
Ignore evidence, dont admit error, distort, misquote, change meaning of words, other errors
One-liner responses: The sun is responsible for global warming wrong the sun has NOT been getting any warmer since 1975 Run by professional climatologists The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars
Science website
Real
Climate website
UU-UNO
Media get reliable scientific input for articles Overview, resources, news on climate
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Climate Impacts
Climate amplifies naturally produced disasters Impacts are probably being observed right now Faint rumbling of impacts on our descendants if Business as Usual BAU behavior continues U.S. Quadrennial Defense Review (2010)
Climate change = U.S. National Security Risk
Breakdown of financial, economic systems? Why bad? Perturb earth like dropping your watch
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Background 1,000 pages: IPCC report,Vol. II (2007) China government report on climate impacts (1/18/12)
Global warming threatens China's march to prosperity by cutting crops, shrinking rivers and unleashing more droughts and floods [Second National Assessment Report on Climate Change]
of risks: 2 types
Average risk: probable, low impact Tail risk: less probable, high impact
Rational The
City, State, Regional, National, International Solar, wind, biomass, fusion, 4th gen. fission Innovative technology: Gasoline from biomass + sequestration; Cool Planet biofuels (2012)
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Climate Ethics
ALL models: long term temperature trend is UP Scenarios; most of the uncertainty = our response
Climate justice: Poor have the smallest effect on climate are hurt the worst However, no place to hide
Finance: Discount rate assumption for assessing future climate impact costs is a critical ingredient More humane and cheaper for preventive action now rather than disaster adaptive action in the future
16 scientists in WSJ misquote Prof. Nordhaus (Yale U.)
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Bottom Line
Human
activities are causing the global warming trend of climate change Impacts are mostly bad, observed now, and will become far worse if BAU prevails
Its
not too late to prevent worst impacts Topics discussed at this Symposium certainly will help (renewable energies ) You can help Thank you
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