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Chapter V.— OTHER LONG-TERM EFFECTS
TABLES
Page
12. Assumed Effects of Radiation Exposures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111
13. Assumed Sources of Cancer Deaths . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111
14, Long-Term Radiation Effects From Nuclear Attacks . . . . . . . 113
Chapter V
OTHER LONG-TERM EFFECTS
The preceding chapter has made it clear that even the immediate effects of a
nuclear attack would have a long-term impact. Structures and resources that would
be destroyed in seconds (by blast) or hours (by fire) might not be rebuilt or replaced
for years, or even decades. People who would die in seconds or in weeks (from fallout
radiation) might not be repiaced in a demographic sense for several generations. Po-
Iitical social, and economic changes arising from the immediate postattack disrup-
tion would probably prove in some significant respects to be irreversible.
There is another category of effects of nuclear war, however, which are “long
term” in the sense that they would probably not be noticeable for some months, or
even years, after the attack took place. Such effects include long-term somatic and
genetic damage from radiation, possible changes in the physical environment (in-
cluding the possibility of damage to the ozone layer of the upper atmosphere), and
possible changes in the ecological system of which humans area part. These are ef-
fects that conventional weapons cannot produce. They are discussed under three
rubrics:
● Effects from low-level ionizing radiation, lead to changes in the Earth’s climate. At
which are reasonably certain to take the present time it is not known how to
place, whose magnitude would depend on calculate the Iikelihood of its occurrence,
the scope of the attack, and which can to but ongoing research into the chemistry of
some extent be calculated on the basis of the upper atmosphere offers promise of
existing data and theory. greater understanding in the future.
● Damage to the ozone layer in the at- ● Other effects whose magnitude and likeli-
mosphere. Such damage could injure hood are incalculable, but whose possibil-
human and animal health, and possibly ity should not be ignored.
A large body of scientific literature ad- of the effects of past weapons testing, and
dresses itself to the issue of long-term effects there are unresolved scientific controversies
from low levels of ionizing radiation, There has over matters as basic as whether a small dose
been an intensive study over the years of the of radiation does more damage to the human
health of the survivors of Hiroshima and Naga- body (or, from a statistical point of view, is
saki, and of some of those who were subjected more likely to do a given amount of damage to
to radioactive fallout as a result of nuclear a human body) if it is absorbed during a brief
weapons testing. There has been considerable period of time than if it is absorbed over a
research into the question of how large a quan- longer period. There are pertinent questions
tity of radioactive particles of various kinds whose answers are only known to within a fac-
are produced by nuclear weapon explosions. tor of 10.
There is a body of theory regarding the effects
of ionizing radiation on the human body. But Previous chapters have discussed the effects
there are also formidable uncertainties. New of very intensive ionizing radiation: 1,000 reins
information is coming to Iight regarding some will almost certainly be lethal if absorbed
109
110 ● The Effects of Nuclear War
—
within a matter of days; 450 reins will kill 50 vivors. There is a particular area of uncer-
percent of a healthy adult population, and a tainty regarding the effects on humans of
slightly higher percentage of the young, the low levels of neutron radiation.
old, and those without adequate medical care; ● Local fallout will inflict small doses of
250 reins will cause acute radiation sickness, radiation on people who are on the fringe
from which “recovery” is probable; and even of “fallout zones, ” or on people who are
lower doses may lower the body’s resistance to in fallout shelters in zones of heavier fall-
infectious diseases of various kinds. It is out. It is important to realize that even the
generally assumed that because of the rate at best fallout shelters attenuate fallout
which fallout radiation decays, doses of this rather than block it completely, and the
magnitude are likely to be received during the whole theory of fallout shelters is to see to
first so days after an attack if they are received it that people who would, if unsheltered,
at all. The preceding chapter, and appendix D, receive a lethal dose would instead re-
include calculations on the numbers of people ceive a sublethal dose. However, this sub-
who might die from radiation effects during lethal dose will produce harmful long-
the first 30 days after various kinds of nuclear term effects for some percentage of those
attack. exposed.
● After a period of time, local fallout radia-
However, doses of ionizing radiation that tion levels decay to the point where the
are too small or too slowly accumulated to area would be considered “safe,” and sur-
produce prompt death or radiation sickness vivors in fallout shelters would emerge.
nevertheless have harmful effects in the long Nevertheless, low levels of radiation
run. These effects can only be discussed statis- would persist for some time— indeed, low
tically, for it appears that if a large population levels of radiation have persisted for years
is exposed to a given (small) dose of radiation, at some sites of nuclear weapons tests.
some will suffer harmful effects while others The question of safety here is a relative
will not. The larger the dose, the greater the one. By the standards of peacetime, many
percentage of the population that is harmed, such areas would be considered unsafe,
and the greater the risk to any one individual. because living in them would expose a
There are a number of ways in which a nu- population to a significant risk of long-
clear attack would lead to radiation exposures term hazards— cancer, genetic damage,
which, although too low to cause death within etc. However, in the aftermath of a nucle
ar attack, there may be few habitable
the first 30 days, nevertheless pose an appreci-
able long-term hazard: areas that do not have a measurable
(though low) level of additional radiation,
● Prompt radiation from the nuclear explo- and the survivors wouId simply have to ac-
sions could inflict sublethal doses on cept the hazards.
some survivors, especially if the weapons ● Some fallout is deposited in the tropo-
are small ones. Most of the radiation ab- sphere, and then is brought down to Earth
sorbed by survivors of the Hiroshima and (largely by rain) over a period of weeks.
Nagasaki attack was direct radiation. A Such fallout reaches areas quite far from
substantial number of U.S. weapons have the blast. While the doses inflicted would
yields in the tens of kilotons, and might in- be relatively small, they would add to the
flict radiation on people far enough away risk.
from the explosion to survive the blast ef- ● Some fallout is deposited in the strato-
fects. Few Soviet weapons are of such low sphere. It returns to Earth over a period of
yields and high-yield weapons are ex- years (through the effects of gravity), and
pected to kill those within radiation range consequently only very long-lived radio-
by blast. A terrorist weapon would almost active isotopes pose a significant hazard.
certainly inflict direct radiation on sur- If the attacks are confined to the territory
Ch. V—Other Long-Term Effects Ž711
since it attributes damage to radiation ab- caused by a large attack on a full range of
sorbed by people whose total dose is be- targets.
low the threshold. ● A large nuclear war could cause deaths in
the low millions outside the combatant
● How to deal with the distribution of ages
countries, although this would represent
of the population at the time of the at-
only a modest increase in the peacetime
tack, since susceptibility to cancer, etc., cancer death rate.
from causes other than radiation varies ● These results might not apply if an at-
with age. tacker set out deliberately to create very
● How great are the genetic effects from a high radiation levels.
given level of radiation? Extensive experi- Just as this study was going to press, the
mental results permit an approximate cal- results of the new report of the Committee on
culation of the number of mutations that the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiations
would be produced, although one source (“BEIR II”) of the National Academy of Sci-
notes that the doubling dose for genetic ences (NAS) became available. (The full report,
disorders might be anywhere from 20 to entitled “The Effects on Populations of Expo-
200 reins. However, it is far more difficult sure to Low Levels of Ionizing Radiations,” will
to predict exactly how these mutations be published by NAS during the second half of
would manifest themselves in future gen- 1979. ) In general, the new report suggests a
erations. slightly narrower range of uncertainty than the
OTA calculations, but generally confirms their
The results of these calculations are summa- assumptions. OTA used assumptions of cancer
rized in table 14. [The full report of the con- deaths per million person-reins which appear
tractor is available separately. ) The ranges re- to be about 10 percent higher at the high end
sult from the uncertainties noted above, and it of the range and about 40 percent lower at the
is expected that the “actual” results if a war low end of the range than the findings of the
took place would be some distance from either new BEIR report. OTA calculated genetic ef-
extreme. It is observed that: fects on the basis of a doubling dose of 20 to
200 reins, compared with a range of 50 to 250
● Cancer deaths in the m i I I ions couId be ex- reins suggested by the new BE I R report, which
pected during the 40 years following a may mean that the OTA estimates are too high
large nuclear attack, even if that attack at the high end of the range. The new BEIR
avoided targets in population centers. report also notes that the incidence of radi-
These millions of deaths would, however, ation-induced cancer would be higher for
be far less than the immediate deaths women than for men.
Large nuclear explosions would, among changes in the Earth’s climate, and would
other things, inject a variety of particles into allow more ultraviolet radiation from the Sun
the upper atmosphere. In recent years, consid- through the atmosphere to the surface of the
erable attention has focused on the possibility Earth, where it could produce dangerous burns
that the injection of a substantial quantity of and a variety of potentially dangerous ecologi-
nitrogen oxide (NOX) into the stratosphere by a cal effects.
large number of high-yield nuclear weapons
might cause a depletion or thinning of the As of 1975, a report by the National Acad-
ozone layer. Such a depletion might produce emy of Sciences (discussed more fully below)
Ch. V—Other Long-Term Effects •113
called attention to this danger as a serious one, stantially more than 1 Mt) in large num-
estimating that a 30- to 70-percent reduction in bers (1 ,000 or more), or possibly from high-
the ozone column was a possibility. altitude explosions. Otherwise, ozone de-
pletion is not believed to be likely. How-
Since that time, however, there have been
ever, further changes in the theory of what
two changes which bear on the question of the
would happen are Iikely in the future.
degree of risk of ozone depletion:
2 The development of MIRVs has reduced
1. Further research into the chemistry of the the number-of very high-yield warheads in
upper atmosphere has modified the mod- the arsenals of the superpowers, as they
el calculations used in 1975. The results of are replaced by multiple weapons of
past nuclear tests do not, however, pro- lower yield.
vide data adequate for the complete vali-
dation of any chemistry model. There are These changes cast doubt on the likelihood
also indications that the chemistry con- of serious ozone depletion as a consequence
cerned is much more complex than was of nuclear war. However, they by no means
formerly believed. The state of knowledge demonstrate that ozone depletion is impossi-
in early 1979 is roughly this: injections of ble, and even slight depletion could cause an
NO. could deplete the ozone layer if they increase in the incidence of skin cancer.
occur at very high altitudes (80,000 ft [24
km] and upwards), which would result This is an area where research continues,
from very high-yield explosions (i.e., sub- and further changes should not be surprising.
INCALCULABLE EFFECTS
FINDINGS
The calculations for long-term radiation much greater than what is considered tol-
hazards, with all their uncertainties, permit an erable today.
order-of-magnitude conclusion: ● The number of deaths would be rather
small compared to the number of deaths
There would be a substantial number of resulting from the immediate effects of
deaths and illness due to radiation among the attack — millions compared to tens or
those who were lucky enough to escape a hundreds of millions.
lethal dose during the first weeks after the I n contrast, the incalculable effects of dam-
attack. age to the Earth’s ecological system might be
on the same order of magnitude as the immedi-
The number of deaths would be very large ate effects, but it is not known how to calcu-
by peacetime standards, and the hazards late or even estimate their likelihood.