The India Growth Story

As the Indian markets begin to fall like autumn leaves people started
nattering and ridiculing about the great India growth story. We love
Sensex 10223 our country and often don’t like whatever is abysmal or unfavourable
and does not suit to our sensibilities. Buts facts never tell lies. Here,
we will try to explore and unearth where our beloved country stands
in the world on various parameters. Is the great India growth story will
die an untimely death? Will India stop shining? Without getting into
forecasting and manipulating data we will just put all those figures so
that you can know your country better. And then you will decide
yourself.

In 2008 ranking on following parameters India was ranked as below:

Nifty 3,074

Parameter Rank in 2008

Largest Economies in $ (PPP) terms 5
Industrial Production Growth 14
Real GDP Growth Rate 16
Fiscal Deficit Not Ranked
Forex Reserve and Gold 6
Current Account Balance 153
External Debt 30
Investment (Gross Fixed) 15
Top Exporting Countries 28
Source: CIA World Factbook 2008

Honestly speaking, India has immense possibilities. These data will

Deepak Tiwari
Research Analyst
deepakt@arthamoney.com
T: + 91 22 4063 3032
not answer the question as such. They just show us where we are
right now and where we want to be. To maintain our growth rate and
meet our growth targets we require making a concerted effort
towards this direction. One of them is reform. But this reform should
not be at the cost of social responsibilities. We shall not fallow
western sort of policies blindly but we urgently need a balanced but
comprehensive approach and course of actions. Of course, there are
political hindrances and other systematic bottlenecks. But India need
urgent actions from every quarter as next few years are crucial for us.
India can make it to third in world’s largest economies in 2050. It has
everything to make it happen but there lies a big BUT. We are very
good at policies what we really need to be good at is execution and
effective implementations of those policies not only in forms but also
in substances.

October 20, 2008 For Private Circulation only 1

 World's 20 largest economies
2008 (in $ PPP)
Ranking Country Million
European
1 Union 14,440,000
2 United States 13,860,000
3 China 7,043,000
4 Japan 4,305,000
5 India 2,965,000
6 Germany 2,833,000
7 United Kingdom 2,147,000
8 Russia 2,076,000
9 France 2,067,000
10 Brazil 1,838,000
11 Italy 1,800,000
12 Spain 1,362,000
13 Mexico 1,353,000
14 Canada 1,274,000
15 Korea, South 1,206,000
16 Iran 852,600
17 Indonesia 845,600
18 Australia 766,800
19 Taiwan 690,100
20 Turkey 667,700
World 65,820,000
Source: CIA World Factbook 2008

As per CIA World Factbook 2008, India’s ranked 5th as far as the largest economies are concerned in terms of USD
PPP (Purchasing Power Parity) is concerned. According to a Goldman Sachs report, India will be ranked third in 2050
only behind China and United States. Sounds too optimistic? Have a look on the table underneath:

Top 10 GDP Countries in $ Billion

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2050 Rank Country GDP GDP GDP GDP GDP GDP
1 China 1078 2998 7070 14312 26439 44453
2 United States 9825 13271 16415 20833 27229 35165
3 India 469 929 2104 4935 12367 27803
4 Japan 4176 4601 5221 5810 6039 6673
5 Brazil 762 668 1333 2189 3740 6074
6 Russia 391 847 1741 2980 4467 5870
7 United Kingdom 1437 1876 2285 2649 3201 3782
8 Germany 1875 2212 2524 2697 3147 3603
9 France 1311 1622 1930 2267 2668 3148
10 Italy 1078 1337 1553 1671 1788 2061
European Union 9395 12965 16861 21075 28323 35288
Source: Goldman Sachs, CIA World Factbook 2008

October 20, 2008 For Private Circulation only 2

India’s is one of the fastest growing economies in the world. At a time when most developed countries are
almost stagnant or growing at much slower pace, India and China have registered robust growth. Though
India cannot compete with China because for India, forget about double digit growth, even a 9% growth is
distant possibility. In current scenario, when China has scaled down its forecasted growth in single digit, we
too are likely to grow at least by 7-7.5% in current fiscal which is not too bad at all.

World's 20 fastest growing economies

2008
Ranking Country Real GDP Growth Rate
1 Azerbaijan 31.0
2 Maldives 18.0
3 Angola 16.3
4 Sudan 12.8
5 Equatorial Guinea 12.7
6 China 11.4
7 Liechtenstein 11.0
8 Cyprus 10.6
9 Armenia 10.5
10 Latvia 10.3
11 Anguilla 10.2
12 Georgia 10.0
13 Ethiopia 9.8
14 Kazakhstan 9.5
15 Bhutan 8.8
15 Slovakia 8.8
16 United Arab Emirates 8.5
16 India 8.5
16 Liberia 8.5
16 Argentina 8.5
16 Cambodia 8.5
17 Mongolia 8.4
18 Venezuela 8.3
19 Vietnam 8.2
20 Uzbekistan 8.1
Other prominent economies
63 European Union 3.0
71 United States 2.0
71 Japan 2.0
67 Germany 2.6
64 United Kingdom 2.9
25 Russia 7.4
73 France 1.8
47 Brazil 4.9
Source: CIA World Factbook 2008

October 20, 2008 For Private Circulation only 3

 Industrial production growth
2008
Ranking Country Growth Rate (%)
1 Sudan 32.0
2 Azerbaijan 31.0
3 Angola 24.4
4 Equatorial Guinea 14.1
5 Egypt 13.8
6 China 12.9
7 Uzbekistan 12.0
8 Laos 12.0
9 Lesotho 12.0
10 Georgia 12.0
11 Cambodia 12.0
12 Slovakia 12.0
13 Vietnam 10.5
14 India 10.0
15 Mozambique 10.0
16 Poland 10.0
17 Estonia 9.8
Source: CIA World Factbook 2008

Fiscal Deficit in 2008: Country wise

Budgeted Budgeted Deficit In
Country Expenditure Revenues $ Million
United States 2,731,000 2,568,000 -163,000
Japan 1,575,000 1,463,000 -112,000
Germany 1,477,000 1,465,000 -12,000
France 1,372,000 1,311,000 -61,000
United Kingdom 1,237,000 1,155,000 -82,000
Italy 1,029,000 976,000 -53,000
China 634,600 640,600 6,000
Canada 551,200 565,800 14,600
Spain 544,900 571,100 26,200
Netherlands 352,300 302,800 -49,500
Brazil 219,900 244,000 24,100
India 182,400 145,200 -37,200
Russia 243,600 341,700 98,100
Source: CIA World Factbook 2008, Artha Money Research

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 Forex Reserves and Gold
2008 Ranking Country $ Million
1 China 1,493,000
2 Japan 881,000
3 Russia 470,000
4 Taiwan 282,900
5 Korea, South 271,100
6 India 239,400
7 Brazil 178,000
8 Singapore 155,300
9 Hong Kong 141,300
10 Germany 111,600
Source: CIA World Factbook 2008

Current Account Balance

2008 Ranking Country $ Million
1 China 363,300
2 Japan 201,300
3 Germany 185,100
4 Saudi Arabia 88890
5 Russia 68500
6 Switzerland 67890
7 Netherlands 59280
8 Norway 55820
9 Kuwait 51490
10 Singapore 41390
153 India -18,530
162 US -747,100
160 UK -111,000
155 -35,940
28 Brazil -10,200
146 Pakistan -6,477
Source: CIA World Factbook 2008

October 20, 2008 For Private Circulation only 5

 External Debt
2008
Ranking Country In $ Million
1 United States 12,250,000
2 United Kingdom 10,450,000
3 Germany 4,489,000
4 France 4,396,000
5 Italy 2,345,000
6 Netherlands 2,277,000
7 Spain 2,047,000
8 Ireland 1,841,000
9 Japan 1,492,000
10 Switzerland 1,340,000
11 Belgium 1,313,000
12 Canada 758,600
13 Australia 757,900
14 Austria 752,500
15 Sweden 598,200
16 Hong Kong 549,700
17 Denmark 492,600
18 Norway 469,100
19 Portugal 415,500
20 Russia 384,800
30 India 165,400
23 China 363,000
Source: CIA World Factbook 2008

Investment (gross fixed)

2008 %age of
Ranking Country GDP
1 Lesotho 48.5
Sao Tome and
2 Principe 43.7
3 Qatar 43.5
4 China 42.2
5 Senegal 39.8
6 Guyana 39.3
7 Equatorial Guinea 39.2
8 Cape Verde 36.9
9 Turkmenistan 36.6
10 Latvia 35.8
11 Jamaica 34.1
12 Estonia 33.3
13 Vietnam 33.0
14 Armenia 32.7
15 India 31.8
Source: CIA World Factbook 2008

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 Top 20 Exporting Countries
2008 Ranking Country In $ Million Share in World Exports
1 Germany 1,361,000 9.9%
2 European Union 1,330,000 9.7%
3 China 1,221,000 8.9%
4 United States 1,140,000 8.3%
5 Japan 665,700 4.9%
6 France 558,900 4.1%
7 Italy 474,800 3.5%
8 Netherlands 465,300 3.4%
9 Canada 440,100 3.2%
10 United Kingdom 415,600 3.0%
11 Korea, South 386,600 2.8%
12 Hong Kong 353,300 2.6%
13 Russia 348,900 2.5%
14 Belgium 328,100 2.4%
15 Singapore 317,600 2.3%
16 Mexico 267,500 1.9%
17 Spain 248,300 1.8%
18 Taiwan 235,500 1.7%
19 Saudi Arabia 215,000 1.6%
20 Switzerland 201,000 1.5%
28 India 140,800 1.0%
World 13,720,000
Source: CIA World Factbook 2008, Artha Money Research

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