1.

Introduction

A. Introduction
Fardh al-Qanoon is a simulation of the 2007 counterinsurgency operation in Baghdad, also referred to as the Baghdad Security Plan. The simulation takes place from February 2007 to November 2007 in month-long turns as the US-led Coalition and Mahdi Army vie for control of the Iraqi capital.

Mahdi Will 2. Will represents the Mahdi Armys ability to control the Shia Militias operating in Baghdad. The Mahdi Army requires Will to raise new Militias and to activate ones that become dispersed. Secured vs. Unsecured 3. Districts and Sunni neighborhood spaces are by default Unsecured areas. 4. An area is Secured as soon as the Coalition meets its the Manpower Requirement and there are no Active Militias present. 5. An area becomes unsecured immediately once the Manpower requirement is no longer met or there are Active Militia units present. 6. Securing a district does not secure Sunni neighborhood spaces within the district. They must be secured separately.

Players & Objectives

One player represents the Coalition, and another the Shia Mahdi Army. The Sunnis of Baghdad are represented in a non-player faction that affects the game. The Coalitions goal is to secure control of Baghdads districts and Sunni neighborhoods by November 2007 while minimizing casualties and violence. The Mahdi Armys goal is to maintain a strong presence in Baghdad and prevent the Coalition from securing the city.

B. How does the game work?

Basic Sequence of Play
Manpower Phase During the Manpower Phase, the Coalition assigns units to districts and the Mahdi Army moves Militias. Sunni Action Phase The Sunni factions actions are determined, Baghdad Phase The Coalition has an opportunity to reassign units, the Mahdi Army activates Militias, and players have the opportunity to engage in combat. Reset Phase Changes are determined before the next round.

C. Components
Map
Unit Pools 1. The Coalition unit pool (labeled Coalition FOBs) on the top-left of the map holds units stationed in large, secure Forward Operating Bases and not deployed amongst the population. 2. The Mahdi Army unit pool on the top-right of the map holds unused Militia units that can be recruited by the Mahdi Army during the Baghdad Phase. Districts 3. The city of Baghdad is divided into 9 named districts. Each district has a Manpower Requirement, a Mahdi Stacking Limit, and a Development space, while some districts have one or more Sunni Neighborhood spaces.
Mahdi Stacking Limit District Name Manpower Requirement

Concepts
Intelligence 1. Intelligence enables the Coalition to seek out Militia units hidden amongst the population and to reassign units in districts during the Baghdad Phase.

MANSOUR 6
Fardh al-Qanoon (1.0)

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Components

Game Counters
front/back

Unit Counters
Violence

Relations Intel Coalition Casualties

Relations
INTEL

Violence Attacked Mahdi Will Month

2x Violence

A Coalition Battalion

Battalion

At ta

A Coalition Brigade Combat Team (BCT)

ck ed

BCT

Cl re ea d

CAS

Will

2x and 3x sides of a Joint Security Station

JSS
2x
Active

JSS
3x
Dispersed

Active and Dispersed states of a Militia

The Green Zone serves as Karkh districts Development space. 4. Units can be placed in a district or on a Development or Sunni space within the district. 5. Thick white lines between districts along the Tigris River represent bridge connections. Sunni neighborhoods 6. Sunni neighborhoods are a distinct area within a district that require separate forces to protect. Each Sunni neighborhood has a Manpower Requirement. Manpower Requirement Neighborhoods can either be in a normal, Attacked, or Cleared state.
A Development space

Counters
10. The game uses a total of 65 counters: Mahdi Army Militia (14), Coalition BCT (5), Coalition Battalion (15), Joint Security Station (9), Violence marker (10), Attacked marker (7), Month (1), Mahdi Will (1), Relations (1), Coalition Casualties (1), and Intelligence (1). 11. Violence counters are placed in districts and Sunni neighborhoods at various points in the game. The counter can be flipped over to its 2x Violence state to represent two incidents of violence for convenience, rather than using two counters on the yellow Violence side.

Coalition units
Combat 12. The Coalitions combat units are Battalions and BCTs (Brigade Combat Teams). Each has a Manpower value: 1 for Battalions and 3 for BCTs. Joint Security Stations (JSS) 13. Joint Security Station counters have two sides: 2x and 3x. When first built, JSS counters are placed on the 2x side, which multiplies all Coalition Manpower points in the district they are in (including in Sunni neighborhoods within the district) by 2 , while the 3x side multiplies Manpower points by 3. 14. There can never be more than one JSS counter
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7. They are considered Attacked after the first successful attack by a Mahdi Army Militia. In Attacked state, neighborhoods can be returned to normal by the Coalition during the Reset Phase. 8. If Sunni neighborhoods are successfully attacked again before the Coalition returns them to normal, they become Cleared, which is irreversible and hurts the Coalitions victory score. Cleared neighborhoods cannot be secured.

Dice
9. The game is played with two six-sided dice.
A counter-insurgency simulation by Robert Hossal

Game Setup
in a district.

Mahdi Army units

15. The Mahdi Armys units are Militias, which can be in two states: Active and Dispersed. 16. Active Militias can attack and are vulnerable to attack by the enemy. These represent groups of men who are actively bearing arms and ready to fight. 17. Dispersed Militias are hidden among the population and represent the latent ability to quickly organize armed men for combat. Dispersed Militias are normally safe from attack, but Intelligence enables the Coalition to raid them.

E. Manpower Phase
Coalition 1. The Coalition may move or place any of its units in the 9 districts or Coalition FOBs space. 2. Units may only be placed on Development spaces in Secured districts (refer to Section B-4). If a district becomes Unsecured during the round, units on the Development space are not moved off. Mahdi Army 3. The Mahdi Army may move each Active Militia unit either into an unsecured Sunni neighborhood in the same district, an adjacent unsecured district (districts across the Tigris river connected by a bridge are considered adjacent), or an unsecured Sunni neighborhood in an adjacent unsecured district. Militias may never be placed in Development spaces. Militias that have been moved may be rotated 90 degrees on the map to indicate they cannot move again this round. 4. Dispersed Militias may be moved in the same manner except it costs 1 Will per unit and they can move into secure areas. 5. At no point in the game can the number of Militias in a district exceed the Mahdi Stacking Limit.

D. Game Setup
Coalition Reinforcements
1. Place the following Coalition units next to the indicated space on the Month track. When that months turn begins, place the unit in the Coalition FOBs space. March: 1 BCT, 1 Battalion April: 1 BCT, 1 Battalion May: 1 Battalion June: 1 Battalion

Initial Counter Positions

2. Omnitrack: 0 Casualties, 3 Intel, 6 Will. 3. Place the Month counter on the February space of the Month track and the Relations counter on the -2 space of the Coalition-Sunni Relations track. 4. Violence counters: 2x Violence in Rusafa, Violence in Adhimiyah. 5. Mahdi Army: 1 Active Militia in Adhimiyah and Sadr City; 2 Dispersed Militias in New Baghdad, 1 Dispersed Militia in Karadah and Rashid.

F. Sunni Action Phase

1. Sunni faction actions are determined by rolling for the number of events, type of events, and targets if necessary.

Number of events
2. Roll one die and subtract 1 for each Sunni neighborhood that has a Cleared counter on it. The modified result determines the number of Sunni Actions according to Table 1. If no actions occur, move on to the Baghdad Phase. Otherwise, complete the next step for each individual event.

Other counters
6. Place all remaining Coalition units in the Coalition FOBs space and all remaining Militias in the Mahdi Unit Pool. Violence counters and Attacked counters are placed aside until needed.
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Fardh al-Qanoon (1.0)

Baghdad Phase Type of event

3. Roll two dice and add the Coalition-Sunni Relations modifier (the number on the currentlyoccupied space on the Coalition-Sunni Relations track). The result determines the type of action according to Table 2. Terrorist Attack 4. Roll for target. 5. If the targeted district is unsecured, place two Violence counters in it. Otherwise, the terrorist attack fails. Sunni Violence 6. Roll for target. 7. If the targeted district is unsecured, place a Violence counter in it. Otherwise, Sunni Violence fails. Cooperate with Coalition 8. The Coalition gains 1 point of Intelligence. Sunni Awakening 9. An Attacked counter can be removed from a Sunni neighborhood space, or the Coalition gains 1 point of Intelligence if no Attacked counters are on the board.

Mahdi Activation
3. The Mahdi Army may spend 1 Will per unit to flip a Dispersed Militia in an unsecured area over to its Active state. There is no Will cost if there is an incident of violence in the same district. (Since Sunni neighborhoods are considered part of the district they are in, Dispersed Militias in unsecured Sunni neighborhoods can be activated for free if there is an incident of violence in the district but not the Sunni neighborhood.) 4. To activate a Dispersed Militia in a secured area, the Mahdi Army must spend 2 Will and roll a die (add 1 for each incident of violence in the district). If the modified result is 1, the Dispersed Militia is returned to the Mahdi Unit Pool. If it is at least 5, it becomes Active, otherwise it remains Dispersed.

Initiate attacks
5. The Mahdi Army and Coalition can choose to initiate attacks in districts and Sunni neighborhoods. Players alternate initiating attacks, and each player can continue to do so until he or she has no more units available to attack or does not wish to. The Mahdi Army has the option of initiating an attack first. 6. If a player has the ability to initiate an attack but declines, he or she can still choose to initiate an attack after the other player does so. If both players consecutively decline to attack, move on to Mahdi Recruitment. 7. A player can use his units in attacks initiated by himself once per round. Once used, rotate the unit counters 180 degrees on the map to indicate they may not participate in combat initiated by the player again this round. These units can still be used in combat initiated by the enemy. Mahdi-initiated attacks 8. The Mahdi Army can use Active Militias to attack Sunni neighborhoods or Coalition units in the same district or Sunni neighborhood. Attacking the Coalition results in combat (see Section I to
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Event target
10. If the event requires a target, roll two dice to determine where the action takes place according to Table 3.

G. Baghdad Phase
Coalition reassignment
1. The Coalition can spend 1 point of Intelligence per unit to move a unit in a district into or out of a Sunni neighborhood or Development space. Any number of units in any districts may be moved within the same district. 2. The Coalition can spend 1 point of Intelligence per unit to move a unit from the Coalition FOBs space into a district or Sunni neighborhood. Up to 2 units may be moved from the FOBs space.

A counter-insurgency simulation by Robert Hossal

Reset Phase
resolve). Attacking Sunni neighborhoods 9. Sunni neighborhood spaces that do not have a Cleared counter can be attacked if at least one Active Militia is present. Each neighborhood can be attacked once per round. 10. If there are no Coalition units present or the Coalition chooses not to defend the neighborhood, roll one die and add 1 for every Militia (Active or Dispersed) in the space. If the modified result is greater than or equal to the spaces Manpower Requirement, the attack succeeds. If the attack fails, the Active Militias become Dispersed and move from the neighborhood space to the district. 11. If a Sunni neighborhood space has Coalition units present and they choose to defend the neighborhood, the Mahdi Army must engage in combat with them first. After resolving combat according to Section I, an attack on the Sunni neighborhood space succeeds if the Mahdi Army is not forced out. 12. If the attack succeeds, the Mahdi Army immediately receives as many points of Will as the neighborhoods Manpower Requirement and the Sunni Relations counter is moved back one space (two spaces if there was no Coalition presence or the Coalition chose not to fight). Place a Violence counter and an Attacked counter on the Sunni space. If an Attacked counter is already present, flip it over to the Cleared side. Coalition-initiated attacks 13. Coalition units can attack Active Militia units in the same district or Sunni neighborhood space. 14. To attack Dispersed Militias (a raid), the Coalition must spend 1 Intelligence per Dispersed Militia present in the area of combat (even if the Mahdi Army does not use all of its available units in combat). When a Dispersed Militia is attacked, all Militia units in the same area may participate in combat as if they were Active. When initiating a raid, place a Violence counter in the area of combat.
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15. The Mahdi Army gains a point of Will each time the Coalition initiates an attack against it.

Mahdi Recruitment
16. The Mahdi Army may take a Militia unit from the Mahdi Unit Pool and place it in Sadr City or a district that has at least one incident of Violence (this includes an incident of violence in a Sunni neighborhood within the district). It costs 2 Will to place a Militia, either in Active or Dispersed state. 17. Up to two new Militia units may be raised in each eligible district. 18. Active Militias may only be placed in unsecured districts, while Dispersed Militias may be placed in secure districts as well. New Militias can never be placed in Sunni neighborhoods. 19. No Recruitment occurs in the November round.

H. Reset Phase
Mahdi Will
1. The Mahdi Army receives 3 points of Will plus 1 point of Will for every incident of Violence on the map.

Coalition Intelligence & Development

2. The Coalition gains 1 point of Intelligence for every 2 Manpower points (before Joint Security Station multipliers) occupying a secure Sunni neighborhood or a Development space in a secure district. Intel is not gained for occupying a Cleared Sunni neighborhood. 3. Instead of gaining an Intelligence point for occupying a Development space in a district, the Coalition can remove an Attacked counter from a Sunni neighborhood in the district. Cleared counters may never be removed or flipped to the Attacked state. Note that this applies for occupying a Development space only, not a Sunni neighborhood. Building a Joint Security Station 4. If the Coalition has met the Manpower
Fardh al-Qanoon (1.0)

Combat
Requirement of a district, a Joint Security Station counter can be placed in it on its 2x side. If a 2x JSS counter is already present, flip it to its 3x side. Note that a Joint Security Station can be built even if there are Active Militia present, so long as the Manpower Requirement is met. can participate in combat as well. 2. The Coalition first chooses its units to be used in combat, then the Mahdi Army chooses its units. 3. Add up the total number of Coalition Manpower points (taking Joint Security Station multipliers into account) and total number of Militias involved in combat, then consult the appropriate box on the Combat Results Table. 4. The first number on the Combat Results Table represents the minimum roll on one die required for all of the Mahdi Armys Active Militias (or all Militias, if the attack is a raid) to be forced out of the area of combat. Active Militias forced out of a district must retreat to an adjacent unsecured district in Dispersed state, or return to the Mahdi Unit Pool if they cannot. Units cannot retreat into an unsecured district if they would exceed the Mahdi Stacking Limit. Militias forced out of a Sunni neighborhood and Dispersed Militias forced out of an area after a raid return to the Mahdi Unit Pool. 5. The second number on the Combat Results Table represents the minimum roll on one die required for a Coalition Casualty to be incurred. 6. A dash () on the Combat Results Table indicates no possibility. 7. The Mahdi Army player rolls the die to determine if his Militias are forced out, while the Coalition player rolls the die to determine if he incurs a Casualty point.
Minimum roll to force Militias out of area of combat Minimum roll for 1 Coalition Casualty

Remove counters
5. Remove all Violence counters from districts and Sunni neighborhoods. 6. The Mahdi Army can choose to return any number of deployed Militia units to its Unit Pool and flip any Active Militias over to their Dispersed state. Mahdi Attrition 7. If the number of Active Militias is greater than the Mahdi Armys current Will, Active Militias must be placed in Dispersed state until the numbers are equal. The Mahdi Army may choose which Active Militias become Dispersed. 8. The Mahdi Army rolls a die. If the result is at least 3, a Dispersed Militia in the city (if available) must be returned to the Mahdi Unit Pool. 1 point of Will can be spent to prevent returning the Dispersed Militia. Next round 9. If the November round was just completed or Coalition Casualties are at least 15, the game ends and victory should be determined. Otherwise, advance the Month counter one space, turn any rotated units back to the proper position, place any Coalition reinforcements in the Coalition FOBs space, and begin the next round.

I. Combat
Resolving combat
1. Combat can only occur between Coalition units and Active Militias in the same district or Sunni neighborhood space. The only exception is when the Coalition is attacking a Dispersed Militia (a raid), in which case Dispersed Militias
A counter-insurgency simulation by Robert Hossal

Combat Results
1-2 3-5 6-8 9-11 12-14 >14

Number of Militias
1>
2/5 2/6 1/6 1/6 1/ 1/

2
5/4 4/5 3/6 2/6 1/6 1/

3
6/3 5/4 4/4 3/5 2/6 1/6

4
/2 6/3 5/3 3/4 2/5 2/5

Manpower Points

2/6
/1 6/2 6/2 5/3 4/4 3/4

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Victory
Special rules 8. The following modifiers apply after taking Joint Security Station multipliers into account: For combat taking place in Sadr City, shift up 1 row on the Combat Results Table for the required dice rolls. During a raid combat, the Coalition gains a +3 Manpower modifier. Mahdi Army Victory 7. If the Coalition has fewer than 35 points Victory Points, the Mahdi Army achieves victory. Despite its progress, the Coalition has failed to secure sufficient control of the city and the Mahdi Army remains an important player in Baghdad. The population does not feel that the government can adequately protect it from violence.

J. Victory
1. There are three possible results: Coalition Victory, Qualified Coalition Victory, and Mahdi Army Victory.

K. Example of Play
The example of play covers the February round, and some of the March Manpower Phase. The game begins in February with the Manpower Phase. The Coalition has 3 BCTs and 11 Battalions to place, for a total of 20 Manpower Points. The first priority is to establish Joint Security Stations so that securing districts and Sunni neighborhoods will be easier. Since Mansour has two Sunni neighborhoods, the Coalition moves to secure it first and places a BCT and 3 Battalions in the district. Since there are no Active Militias there, Mansour is now Secured. Karkh district only requires 4 Manpower to secure, so the Coalition places a BCT and Battalion there as well. Another BCT and 3 Battalions are placed in Karadah, while the remaining 4 Battalions are placed in the Sunni neighborhood space in Adhimiyah, which is vulnerable to attack by 2 Active Militias. The Mahdi Army moves the Active Militia from Sadr City to the unsecured Sunni space in unsecured New Baghdad, where it is guaranteed a successful attack. The Dispersed Militias in Rashid and Karadah are both moved to the Sunni space in Rashid (at a total cost of 2 Will), which offers a more attractive and rewarding target than the Sunni space in Karadah. The Manpower phase is over and the Sunni Action Phase begins. A 4 is rolled, which Table 1 indicates is 2 Sunni actions. Two dice are rolled for the first event, summing up to 6. Because the Relations Counter is at the -2 position, the modified result is 4, which Table 2 indicates is a Terrorist Attack. Two
Fardh al-Qanoon (1.0)

Determining the result

2. The Coalition receives 4 Victory Points for every secured district and 1 point for every Sunni neighborhood that has not been Cleared. It loses 1 point if at least 2 Sunni neighborhoods have been Cleared. 3. The Mahdi Army receives as many points of Will as there are Coalition Casualties. 4. Subtract the Mahdi Armys total Will from the Coalitions Victory Points to determine the Net Score. Coalition Victory 5. If the Coalition has at least 35 Victory Points and the Net Score is at least 20, it achieves a full victory. Baghdad is secured and the Mahdi Army has been sufficiently weakened to allow the Coalitions control over the city to last. The population is confident that their safety and security is best assured by the government. Qualified Coalition Victory 6. If the Coalition has at least 35 Victory Points but the Net Score is less than 20, it achieves a qualified victory. The city is secured, but the Mahdi Army retains its strength and influence. The immediate mission has been achieved, but the population is unsure of its long-term prospects.
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Example of Play
dice are rolled for a target, giving the result of 5: Kadhimiyah. The Coalition has not secured it yet, so a Violence counter is placed in the district on its 2x side to represent the attack and the aftermath reprisal violence. The second Sunni event roll results in 9; with the -2 Relations modifier it is 7, which Table 2 indicates as Nothing happens. With all Sunni actions resolved, the Baghdad Phase begins with Coalition Reassignment. Because the Coalition secured the Sunni space in Adhimiyah, the Mahdi Armys Active Militia in the district could not move in. The Coalition could spend Intelligence to move some units out of the Sunni space so that they could attack the Active Militia, but the Coalition opts to focus on security rather than combat. The Coalition does not reassign any units, so Mahdi Activation begins. The Mahdi Army spends 2 Will to activate the 2 Dispersed Militias in Rashids Sunni space, enabling them to attack later in the phase. Opting not to activate any other Dispersed Militias, the Mahdi Army moves on to initiate attacks. Each player alternates initiating an attack, beginning with the Mahdi Army, who decides to start with an easy target: the New Baghdad Sunni space. A successful attack requires rolling the Sunni spaces Manpower Requirement or higher on one die. A +1 modifier is added for each Militia taking part in the attack, so even on a roll of 1, the Mahdi Armys result would meet the Sunni spaces Manpower Requirement value of 2. An Attacked and Violence counter are placed on the Sunni space, and 2 Will is added on the Omnitrack. Because the Coalition did not even have a presence in the space, the Relations counter would be moved back 2 spaces, although in this case it can only move back 1 space before reaching its lowest level. The Coalition would have the option of initiating an attack now, but none of its units are in the same area as a Mahdi Militia, so the initiative returns to the Mahdi Army, who chooses to attempt an attack in Rashids Sunni space using both its Active Militias. The Mahdi Army rolls a 2, but has a +1 modifier for each Active Militia, giving a modified result of 4, which just meets the spaces Manpower Requirement value. The attack succeeds, and an Attacked
A counter-insurgency simulation by Robert Hossal

counter and Violence counter are placed in the space while the Mahdi Army gains 4 Will (for a current total of 8). The Relations counter cannot be moved and further back than it already is. Once again, the Coalition has nowhere it can initiate an attack, and neither does the Mahdi Army. Since the two players attacks are skipped consecutively, play moves on to Mahdi Recruitment. The presence of Violence counters allows the Mahdi Army to raise new Militias in Adhimiyah, Kadhimiyah, New Baghdad, Rusafa, and Rashid (in addition to Sadr City, where Militias can always be raised). The Mahdi Army decides to raise 2 Militias in Rashid, one each in Active and Dispersed states, for a total cost of 4 Will. This placement allows the Mahdi Army to go for a second attack against the Sunni space in Rashid next month, permanently clearing it. The Dispersed Militia gives the option of sneaking into Sunni spaces in Mansour or Karadah, forcing the Coalition to spend its manpower securing the Sunni population. The Mahdi Army has 4 Will left, but expects to gain 10 during the Reset Phase, so he raises 2 more Dispersed Militias in Kadhimiyah, giving him the option of sneaking into Sunni spaces in Adhimiyah, Karkh, or Mansour. With Recruitment over, the Reset Phase begins. The Mahdi Army receives 3 points of Will as always, plus 7 additional points for the 7 incidents of Violence represented on the map. While the Mahdi Army is gaining a lot of Will at this early stage of the game, it has to be careful about spending it too quickly, as it will have fewer chances to gain Will later as the Coalition increases its control of the city. Maintaining a reserve of Will allows the Mahdi Army to attempt to shatter the security established by the Coalition late in the game. The Coalition gains no Intelligence since its units are not occupying any Development spaces, and the 4 Manpower points in Adhimiyahs Sunni space do not generate the 2 points of Intelligence they normally would because the district is not secured. Since the Manpower Requirements of Mansour, Karkh, and Karadah have all been met (regardless of whether they are secured or not), Joint Security Stations can be built in each. JSS counters are placed on their
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Game Tips
2x side. All Violence counters are removed from the map. The Mahdi Army does not choose to remove any Militias or switch any Active Militias into Dispersed state. The Mahdi Armys 10 points of Will allow it to have up to 10 Active Militia on the board, and it only has 5, so no Active Militias are forced to be Dispersed. Lastly, the Mahdi Army rolls a die for attrition, resulting in a 4. A Dispersed Militia must be returned to the Mahdi Unit Pool, but the Mahdi Army opts to pay 1 Will to avoid that. The Month counter is advanced to March, and the Coalitions 1 BCT and 1 Battalion reinforcements are added to the Coalition FOBs space. The Manpower Phase begins with the Coalition once more. With its 2x Manpower multipliers granted by JSS counters in Mansour, Karkh, and Karadah, the Coalition can afford to move units while still keeping the districts secure. It decides to secure Rashid next, which has a Manpower Requirement of 8. BCTs from Mansour and Karadah and the BCT reinforcement in the FOBs space are moved to Rashid, establishing 9 points of Manpower. The district is not secure, however, because an Active Militia is present. If that Militia were not there, the district would be secure even though there are two Active Militias in the Sunni space, since they are only operating in the Sunni neighborhood. The appropriate box on the Combat Results Table is consulted, with required minimum rolls of 3 and 6 to eject the Mahdi Army and inflict a Coalition Casualty, respectively. The Mahdi Army rolls for the first number, resulting in a 4. The Coalition rolls for the second, resulting in a 6. Both Active Militias must become Dispersed and move into an adjacent unsecured district without exceeding the Mahdi Stacking Limit, or else return to the Unit Pool, but the Mahdi Army at least inflicted a point of Casualty upon the Coalition, which contributes to their end game score.

L. Game Tips
Coalition
The game is generally chaotic in the first few months and then followed by shorter, less combatoriented rounds near the end. The Coalition must decide on a balance between using its resources to fight the Mahdi Army, protect Sunnis from sectarian violence, and establish security in general. Focusing on the Mahdi Army early generally makes it more difficult to secure districts later, since so much focus is put on fighting rather than patrolling, gathering intelligence, and establishing Joint Security Stations. Ignoring the Sunni communitys needs makes negative actions like terrorist attacks and Sunniinitiated sectarian violence more likely. These can be mitigated if districts are secured, but it also means positive developments like Sunni cooperation with the Coalition are less likely to occur, and suppression of the Sunni community means fewer possible actions during the Sunni phase. The Coalition must establish as many Joint Security Stations as early as it can, since the force multiplier effect allows it to use its forces more effectively. Without JSS counters, the Coalition has a total of 30 Manpower points by June; fully-developed 3x JSS counters make that worth 90 points. After building several Joint Security Stations, the Coalition has the flexibility to go on offensive operations and clear Militias out of the districts it seeks to secure. Raiding Dispersed Militias returns them to the Mahdi Unit Pool, but Intelligence is hard
Fardh al-Qanoon (1.0)

An example of combat
For this example, there are two Active Militia, 1 BCT, and 3 Battalions in Karadah with no JSS counter. The Coalition has the initiative and decides to attack. The Mahdi Army gains 1 point of Will every time the Coalition initiates combat against it. Since the Coalition chooses its units first, it decides to use all of its available units as part of the attack, which means it wont be able to launch another attack in Karadah for the rest of the round. Its total Manpower is 6. If the Mahdi Army committed 1 Active Militia to the fight, the Coalition would have a guaranteed chance of ejecting all Active Militias from the district with its minimum required roll of 1, so there is no point in not choosing to use both units.
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Game Tips
to gather in the first few rounds of the game. Near the middle and end, the Coalition can gather substantial amounts of Intelligence and easily raid any Dispersed Militias that attempt to infiltrate secured areas and break district security. Successfully attacking Active Militias results in them retreating to adjacent unsecured districts in Dispersed state, which is important to keep in mind as you get into offensive operations. Clearing a district without securing adjacent areas first gives the Mahdi Army the opportunity to sneak into your assumed safe areas. As the game progresses, the Mahdi Army will ideally be forced back into Adhimiyah or New Baghdad, and then Sadr City. While it is possible to win without securing Sadr City, not doing so will make the margin of victory much thinner. On the other hand, combat is more difficult in Sadr City, and it is possible to suffer severe casualties if the Mahdi Army resists. In terms of combat, large engagements are always worse for the Coalition. Casualties become far more likely with each additional Militia involved in combat, so it is always preferable to keep the Mahdi Army spread out until the end of the game, where they will hopefully be holed up in Sadr City or another Shia-heavy area. Will generated for the Mahdi Army. Knowing when to abandon a district is important, as is exploiting opportunities to distract the Coalition by infiltrating secure areas with Dispersed Militias. At some point, which may come at a different time in every game, the Mahdi Army will have to choose what endgame scenario to pursue: Mahdi victory or denying the Coalition full victory. Deciding at the right time allows you to use your resources accordingly; risking your Will for an outright victory will likely mean not having enough to deny the Coalition full victory if you fail. Massing forces is crucial, because even if the Coalition masses forces to match yours, combat is more difficult for them with each additional Militia. When facing one Militia, for example, the Coalitions chances in combat deteriorate only slightly from having a 12 Manpower force to a 2 Manpower force. Additional Militias severely increase the danger of casualties and improve the Mahdi Armys chances of remaining in an area. The best way to avoid the endgame stalemate in Sadr City is to dictate where the Coalition must send its forces. Distract their attention with infiltrations, half-hearted attacks on Sunni spaces, and moving into seemingly-safe areas. Joint Security Stations offer the Coalition a significant Manpower bonus, granting them the momentum to roll back your presence district by district. Forcing the Coalition to respond to your presence in rear and safe districts will stall their advance, giving you more time to solidify your forces for a last stand. Maintaining a hold over just 2 districts by the end of November is enough to snatch complete victory over the Coalition.

Mahdi Army
The Coalitions lack of momentum makes the early months of the operation crucial for the Mahdi Army. There are basically two choices for a Mahdi player: strive for full victory (a difficult task), or settle for denying the Coalition a full victory. For the first few months, the Mahdi Army has the opportunity to attack and clear Sunni neighborhoods, establishing a large reserve of Will and hurting the Coalitions endgame score. Losing Militias may seem trivial at first given the large amount of Will, but it is important to preserve some capacity for the latter part of the game. As the Coalition spreads throughout the city and establishes Joint Security Stations, it will become harder and harder to move units and raise new Militias. Violence will decrease, meaning less new
A counter-insurgency simulation by Robert Hossal

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Charts & Tables

Table 1 Roll Result # of Events Roll Result Table 3 Location

<1 1, 2 3, 4 5, 6
Table 2 Roll Result

0 1 2 3
Event Type
Terrorist Attack Sunni Violence Nothing happens Cooperate with Coalition Sunni Awakening

2, 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11, 12

Mansour Karkh Kadhimiyah Sadr City Adhimiyah Rusafa New Baghdad Rashid Karadah

<5 5, 6 7 8, 9 >9

Combat Results
1-2 3-5 6-8 9-11 12-14 >14

Number of Militias
1
2/5 2/6 1/6 1/6 1/ 1/

2
5/4 4/5 3/6 2/6 1/6 1/

3
6/3 5/4 4/4 3/5 2/6 1/6

4
/2 6/3 5/3 3/4 2/5 2/5

>4
/1 6/2 6/2 5/3 4/4 3/4

Manpower Points

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Fardh al-Qanoon