INDIA PAK IRAN PIPELINE

WORLD ENERGY CONSUMPTION

WORLD MAJ PETROLEUM PRODUCING AREAS

THE PROJECT

BACKGROUND 4

BACKGROUND
REALITY PEAK OIL - 1970 INDIA, A NET ENERGY DEFICIENT COUNTRY SCRAMBLE FOR SECURE ENERGY SOURCES BEGUN IRAQ COUNTRIES LEFT BEHIND IN OIL CONTRACTS NOW SECURING OIL IN VOLATILE REGIONS SUDAN, NIGERIA, ANGOLA, IRAN DISCOVERY OF CASPIAN OIL AND GAS IPI SOUTH PARS GAS FIELD DISCOVERED PROJECT CONCEPTUALIZED MOU SIGNED CABINET APPROVAL

- 1988 -1989 -1993 -2005

ENERGY SIT 5

THE ENERGY SIT

WORLD ENERGY SOURCES

WHY GAS

WHY GAS
LEVEL OF REMAINING RESERVES ENVIRONMENT ISSUES RELATIVE VERSATALITY ECONOMICAL

INDIAN GAS SIT 8

ANTICIPATED PRODUCTION PROFILE

SOURCE DGHC

DEMAND -SUPPLY LONG TERM ONE PERCENT RES ADDED ANNUALLY

DEMAND-SUPPLY LONG TERM 2% RES ADDED ANNUALLY

DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP
SOURCE: DGHC, GOI

SIGNIFICANCE OF IRANIAN GAS

INDIAN DOMESTIC SUPPLY : 170 MMSCMD IMPORT : 80 MMSCMD TOTAL SUPPLY : 250MMSCMD ADDING:18(IRAN)LNG)+9(ENNOREMYSORE)+60(IPI)+40(TAPI) =127MMSCD. GRAND SUPPLY ESTIMATED DEMAND SURPLUS =250+127 =377MMSCD =263 -314MMSCMD :377-314=63

IRAN SUPPLY IS
IPI GAS

60 +18 =78

OR

30+18=48

:UPTO 16% OF SUPPLY.

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WHY PIPELINE THROUGH PAK

OPTIONS
LNG SHIPMENT

DEEP SEA PPL SHALLOW WATER PPL OVERLAND

COST OF MAINT
OPTIONS FOR IRAN ?

ALTERNATE ROUTE FOR IRAN GAS

REGIONAL PLAYERS

VIEWED FROM TEHRAN

DEBILITATING SANCTIONS- IPI A POTENTIAL SOURCE OF CAPITAL

ASSURED MARKET OVER LAND ROUTE.

TRIPLE WIN : ECONOMIC, POLITICAL, AND STRATEGIC GAINS OPPORTUNITY TO PROVIDE TRANSIT TO CASPIAN OIL AND GAS

IRANIAN EAST WARD ENERGY MOVES ARE LARGELY DRIVEN BY DIFFICULTIES IN WESTERN MARKET.
EUROPE IS IRANS PREFERRED OPTION: TURKEY ROUTE.

PAKISTAN VIEW
ASSURED SOURCE OF ENERGY- ALREADY HAS DEVP GAS INFRASTRUCTURE ECONOMIC GAINS - TRANSIT AND TRANSPORTATION FEE OPPORTUNITY TO SIT ASTRIDE INDIAN ENERGY SUPPLY

IN FAVOUR

PLAYING TO PRECONCEIVED CHINESE AGENDA ?

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INDIAN VIEW
ASSURED SOURCE OF ENERGY ECONOMIC GAIN CHEAPEST MODE OF TRANSPORTATION OF ENERGY OPAQUE DECISION MAKING IN TEHRAN REVISION OF LNG PRICING AYATULLAH VIEW- CONSERVE SOURCES UNCERTAINITY PAKISTAN SITS ASTRIDE YOUR ARTERY STABILITY OF PAKISTAN
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IPI IN THE GREAT GAME

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THE CASPIAN REGION

ROMANIA

UZBEKISTAN

BULGARIA

GEORGIA

TURMENISTAN
AZERBAIJAN

SYRIA

IRAQ

IRAN

THE OIL INTERESTS-CASPIAN

THE OIL INTERESTS-CASPIAN

THE OIL INTERESTS-CASPIAN

INDICATIVE DPLY- AFGHANISTAN

NO

GE SW

AU FR TU NE

CAN

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THE OIL INTERESTS - CASPIAN

THE COMPETING PIPELINES

GAS TO EUROPE

SUMMARY

IRANIAN CAPACITY TO SUPPLY IPI & NABUCCO PIPELINES

IRAN DOES NOT HAVE THE GAS AVAILABLE TO MEET DEMAND FROM TWO OF ITS MAJOR EXPORT INITIATIVES,, UNLESS BUYERS

REDUCE THE VOLUMES DEMANDED.

IRAN

EUROPE IS ASKING FOR 100 MMSCM OF GAS A DAY, WHILE INDIA AND PAKISTAN NEED 150 MMSCU OF IRANIAN GAS,

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US VIEW
IRAN AXIS OF EVIL - UNACCEPTABLE REGIME. IRAN MEDDLING IN MIDDLE EAST. ANY LONG TERM PURCHASE OF OIL/GAS PROVIDES MUCH NEEDED CAPITAL TO IRAN PRESENT SET UP TO SURVIVE LONGER. COMPANIES WITH MORE THAN $20 MILLION PER YR INVESTMENT IN IRAN BARRED IN US . TO OBVIATE IPI - US SUPPORTS TAPI PPL,IE, EXTRACT CASPIAN RESOURCE WITHOUT GOING TO RUSSIA. IRAN NOW ASKING FOR PAYMENTS IN EURO FOR OIL EXPORTS. DEAD AGAINST IPI

RUSSIAN VIEW
IRAN SUPPORTS MULTI POLAR WORLD - REDUCED US INFLUENCE IN THE REGION. IRANIAN OIL/GAS TO EUROPE REDUCES RUSSIAN BARGAINING POWER RUSSIAN COMPANIES PREPARED TO INVEST- OPPORTUNITY FOR LONG TERM INVESTMENT ADDL CAPITAL WITH IRAN BRINGS LARGE ARMS ORDERS TO RUSSIA.

RUSSIA OPPOSES NABUCCO AND TAPI PIPELINES WHICH

REDUCE HER CONTROL OF CASPIAN OIL AND EUROPEAN MARKET
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CHINESE VIEW
IRAN'S SUPPORT FOR MULTI POLAR WORLD COINCIDES WITH HER OWN PERCEPTIONS. ANY NEW SOURCE OF ENERGY IS WELCOME TO FEED HER EVER GROWING DEMAND. HAS OFFERED TO PURCHASE INDIAN SHARE OF PIPELINE CAPACITY. MUCH SHORTER ROUTE TO HER WESTERN REGIONS. OVERLAND ROUTE MAKES HER LESS DEPENDENT ON SEA LANES.

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ISSUES
SECURITY AND COST INCL TRANSIT FEE

SECURITY:
PAKISTANI ASSURANCE IRAN GUARANTEES TO SUP EQUIVALENT AMOUNT OF ENERGY

THROUGH ALT ROUTE.

MULTI LATERAL FUNDING AND PROJECT EXECUTION

CHALLENGES
SECURITY SIT IN PAKISTAN SINCE DETERIORATED -WAIT AND WATCH SIT IN PAKISTAN. MEAN WHILE DEVELOP LNG TERMINALS TO SHIP GAS FROM THE SUPPLIERS.

DO NOT ALLOW THE PROJECT TO DIE DOWN. IT IS THE MOST ECONOMICAL OPTION TO SECURE ENERGYINDIA UNDER EXPLORED AND NOT UNDER ENDOWED - AGGRESSIVE EXPLORATION PLAN.

PREPARE GROUNDS TO DEAL WITH PIPELINE THROUGH POK CHALLENGE

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STUDY VALUE

ISSUES RARELY ARE WHAT THEY SEEM TO BE FIGURE OUT THE MOTIVES - MEDIA USE POWERFUL TOOLS MOSTLY FREE

OWNERSHIP - PASSION - COMPETENCE

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THE NUGGET

"To radically shift regime behavior we must think clearly and boldly for if we have learned anything, it is that regimes do not want to be changed. We must think beyond those who have gone before us and discover technological changes that embolden us with ways to act in which our forebears could not.

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THE NUGGET
"the more secretive or unjust an organisation is, the more leaks induce fear and paranoia in its leadership and planning coterie. ... Since unjust systems, by their nature induce opponents, and in many places barely have the upper hand, mass leaking leaves them exquisitely vulnerable to those who seek to replace them with more open forms of governance."

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INDIA PAK IRAN PIPELINE