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oil_da

oil_da

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Published by: AffNeg.Com on Dec 21, 2008
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05/09/2014

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Baylor Debate InstituteOil DA
Oil DA – Index
Oil DA – Index ......................................................................................................................................................................................1 ___**Oil Prices DA**___ .....................................................................................................................................................................2Oil DA – 1NC (1/2) ...............................................................................................................................................................................3Oil DA – 1NC (2/2) ...............................................................................................................................................................................42NC Overview .......................................................................................................................................................................................52NC Turns Case .....................................................................................................................................................................................62NR Turns Case .....................................................................................................................................................................................7Uniqueness EXT – Alternative Energy Low ..........................................................................................................................................8Uniqueness EXT – Brink ......................................................................................................................................................................9Uniqueness EXT Prices Low ............................................................................................................................................................10OPEC Link Extensions .........................................................................................................................................................................11OPEC Internal Link Extensions ..........................................................................................................................................................12Recession Internal Link EXT ..............................................................................................................................................................13Impact – Economy ..............................................................................................................................................................................14Impact – Food Prices ...........................................................................................................................................................................15Impact – Protectionism .......................................................................................................................................................................16 ___**Oil Prices AFF Answers**___ ...................................................................................................................................................17AFF 2AC Non-Unique ......................................................................................................................................................................18AFF 1AR Non-Unique ......................................................................................................................................................................19AFF – 2AC Link Turn .........................................................................................................................................................................20AFF – 2AC No Internal Link ..............................................................................................................................................................21AFF – 1AR No Internal Link ..............................................................................................................................................................22AFF 2AC OPEC Link Turn ...............................................................................................................................................................23AFF 2AC OPEC No Internal Link ..................................................................................................................................................24AFF 2AC Prices Self-Correcting ......................................................................................................................................................25
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Baylor Debate InstituteOil DA
 ___**Oil Prices DA**___ 
2
 
Baylor Debate InstituteOil DA
Oil DA – 1NC (1/2)
(A) Uniqueness – gas prices are going down but we’re still on the brink – an unexpected jolt in pricescould produce an economic recessionNYT, 6-19-08
[“Driving Less, Americans Finally React to Sting of Gas Prices, a Study Says.”http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/19/business/19gas.html
 
]The Cambridge Energy report cites some fundamental shifts in consumer behavior that suggest the beginning of an enduring trend.
The report noted that
in California, where gas
oline
 prices have historically led the rest of the country,
gasoline
consumption has declinedfor two consecutive years and hybrid vehicle sales are rising.
 Now the rest of the country seems to be following. Sales of pickup trucks, minivans and sport utility vehicles have fallen below 50 percent of new passenger vehicle sales this year for the first time since 2001, the report says, as consumers turned to smaller vehicles in favor of fuel economy.
“It’s kind of stunning,” said
Aaron F. Brady,
a co-author 
of the report. “It was over 50 percent as late as February and by May it fell under 44 percent.
It’s like falling off a cliff.”
Drivers, meanwhile, are becoming more prudent in their driving habits, either by using public transportation, carpooling or just cutting down on unnecessary trips,the two authors said in an interview. “Public transit ridership is surging all over the country,” said Samantha Gross, the other author.While total vehicle miles Americans traveled grew by nearly 3 percent a year from 1984 to 2004, the rate of growth slowed suddenly in 2005 and 2006 and hasdeclined since then.The last time gasoline consumption declined for a prolonged period was during the oil shocks in the late 1970s and early 1980s, when annual United Statesconsumption declined by 12 percent. Fast-rising oil prices, a deep recession and improved fuel efficiency standards drove down demand for gasoline.The same situation is beginning to emerge today, according to the report, and basic home economics explains the trends. Since the 1980s, demand for gasoline hasclimbed fairly steadily, except in late 1990 and 1991 because of a sharp price increase related to Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait and a recession. That is because spendingon gasoline became a smaller percentage of family income, especially through the 1990s.Americans spent about 4.5 percent of their after-tax income on transportation fuels in 1981, according to Global Insight, a forecasting firm. As gasoline pricesdropped and family incomes rose, that percentage dropped to 1.9 percent in 1998. Today, it is back to 4 percent or more.
The national price for unleaded gasoline would need to average $4.23 a gallon “to create the same economic pain as in 1981
 
,” theCambridge Energy report said. “
Once unthinkable, such a level is now within view
.” On Wednesday, gasoline averaged nearly $4.08 a gallon.
It would take a sizable decline in consumption to get back to the levels of 
gasoline
use only a generation ago.
(B) Link – the AFF creates the perfect storm – alternative energy development during a time of declining consumption is OPEC’s biggest fearMufson, ‘6
[Steven. “As OPEC Meets, Fresh Doubts About Its Power.” The Washington Post. September 10, 2006. p. Lexis]"OPEC knows, through both intuition and experience, that it does not operate in a vacuum,"
said Alvaro Silva-Calderón, then the secretarygeneral. "If it wants to sell its oil, then it must attract buyers. And it does not attract buyers by scaring them off, or being unreliable." He added, "Producers needconsumers and consumers need producers."When he gave that speech, OPEC's price target for a barrel of crude oil ranged from $22 to $28. Three years later,
the price of oil has nearly tripled. Andas OPEC prepares
to meet on Monday, the
group is worried that high oil prices will chase consumers to alternate energy sources
 
,
weaken Western and Asian economies to the point of hurting demand and bring about a boost in supply from non-OPEC countries.
(C) Internal link – OPEC pronouncements are key – they can quickly produce price spikesAP Financial, 6-26-08
[“AP Financial NewsBrief.” Associated Press Financial Wire. P. Lexis]Oil prices spike close to $139 after OPEC comment
Oil
 prices surged
Thursday
after OPEC's president said oil could hit $170 a barrel and buyers came back into the market after a sharpdrop the day before
. A slightly weaker U.S. dollar against the euro and the Japanese yen also helped support prices.
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