Books Worth Your Time
What is Most Likely to Matter Tomorrow?
By Ellen Stuhlmann
clear sense of the future empowers
A decisions, gives insights into new
opportunities, and provides an invaluable
perspective of you and of your business
in a bigger world. Therefore, the ability
to keep on top of fast-changing, far-flung,
intersecting trends is a critical skill for
every executive.
Professional futurist, Eric Garland
in his new book, FUTURE, INC.: How
Businesses Can Anticipate and Profit from
What’s Next, shows that this ability to
look for changes on the horizon and
gauge the impact is not that difficult.
By combining a few simple techniques
with curiosity about what’s currently hap-
pening everywhere — you can predict
what is most likely to matter tomorrow.
Eric Garland was very generous in
sharing his time and thoughts about how
you can develop the ability to predict
what’s coming and what trends you
should keep on your radar.
Q. You advise business leaders to
become futurists. What habits or
qualities should they cultivate to
anticipate what’s next?
A. The most important quality is the abil-
ity to think about your business in terms
of holistic systems. This is really tough in
a world of increasing specialization. Most
unexpected future changes come from
outside your field of expertise — other-
wise you would notice them quite natu-
rally! Today, demographics, information
technology, media and communications,
healthcare, materials science — all these
fields are interacting at an unprecedented
rate. You must practice thinking about
how these fields come together:
• aging populations + information
technology
• Latino youth + media
• China + healthcare
It’s this sense of what I call supercon-
nection that will allow you to cultivate
6 | CareerSmart Advisor
a perspective on the future and let you was only focusing on today’s numbers,
act before it’s too late. and not letting distractions from the
My favorite example of this comes wider world change the company’s plans.
from the record industry and their reac-
tion to the MP3. Record executives were
I think we can see the fruits of that kind
of thinking.
so surprised by these “outside” technolo- To anticipate the future and profit
gies, they were left suing teenagers to from it, you must see broadly and be flex-
stem the damage from illegal download- ible about how you will need to change.
ing. They were experts in their industry,
but they weren’t watching the larger Q. New technologies are transforming
changes in information technology. When the world so quickly today — how can
cheap memory, increasing ownership of an executive keep ahead of the curve in
home computers and the Internet all spotting trends, distinguish them from
came together with the transition to the fads, and trust that investment in the
all-digital compact disc, their means of future he envisions is smart business?
distribution changed overnight. If you A. To see the future you must collect
asked them in 1995, they would have trend data from reliable sources. I believe
said “we’re not in the computer business.” that every executive should be able to cite
Maybe not, but computers changed the at least five trends about what will create
music business all the same. the future. What’s more, they should be
Holistic thinking is going to keep the most relevant trends in terms of strat-
you from being blindsided. Every com- egy, not just what’s most sensational at
pany is innovating and trying to improve the moment.
their core services and products. Think We live in a world dominated by
of two companies — Bethlehem Steel 24/7/365 media. In order to keep our
and IBM. Both refined their products fleeting attention, those media sources
every year; both companies were innova- must constantly bombard us with increas-
tive in the traditional sense. Of the two, ingly sensational stories. Consider the fact
only IBM looks out at the future of that CNBC was seriously trying to ana-
business information in a holistic man- lyze the effect of the death of Anna
ner, seeing trends other than just com- Nicole Smith on American financial mar-
puting. To keep relevant to the future, kets. As a result, the media does not give
they barely make hardware anymore! executives a sense of what are really rele-
Bethlehem Steel looked only at the cur- vant changes.
rent model of steel — and they don’t I tell leaders get the hard data about
exist any longer. what is really changing your world. Two
I remember an interview with one mentions in Newsweek does not a trend
of Bethlehem Steel’s corporate planners make. Remember in 2001 when the
back in 1993. This executive bragged media went crazy about shark attacks on
that he didn’t let “intellectual curiosity” America’s beaches? Weeks of stories about
about externalities get in his way of see- shark attacks bombarded the American
ing the future. He claimed his success Continued on page 7
Eric Garland, author of Future, Inc: How Businesses Can
Anticipate and Profit from What’s Next, is a professional futurist
(CompetitiveFutures.com). He is an advisor to executives at top
corporations and government agencies as an expert in futures
research and competitive intelligence. His dozens of major clients
include Ford, Coca-Cola, Johnson & Johnson, Siemens, Wyeth
and Goodyear.
Books Worth Your Time
Continued from page 6
consciousness. They left out one key fact
— shark attacks were actually down for
the third straight year. Only the reporting
of shark attacks was up. You would only
know that if you went to the Florida
Department of Ichthyology. That’s why
executives must transcend the popular
media and go for the hard data in jour-
nals and expert reports.
The trends that create the future are
never out of the blue. They announce
themselves and can be quantified. So
get the real data about what’s changing.
Q. In FUTURE, INC. you highlight
eight drivers of the future that every
decision maker should take seriously.
What makes these areas stand out for
their potential to change tomorrow’s
business environment?
A. I chose to highlight aging populations,
information technology, ecological
changes and energy because those are the
changes that come up in every futures
study, for every industry. Most compa-
nies I talk to are bracing for the Baby
Boomer retirement and the impact of
lost skills and expensive retirement obli-
gations. Whether you are a textile manu-
facturer in Sri Lanka or making wine in
California, you need to think about the
future of the energy supply. Global
warming and a lack of fresh water will
affect every nation. So these eight drivers
struck me as the most universal.
What surprises me is that many exec-
utives are not aware of even the most
basic forecasts about these subjects. Many
people are unaware that every continent
is drawing down its supply of fresh water.
People know that petroleum is scarce, but
most of them half-expect that there’s a
magical technology waiting in the next 20
years that will save us. They might not be
able to tell you that India has 18 percent
of the world’s population and less than
1 percent of its energy reserves, or that
China has hundreds of coal-fired power
plants in the works. And these basic facts
will be the framework of what’s next.
When I talk about becoming a
A New ExecuNet Event!
Future Intelligence: What Every Executive Should Know About Future Trends Technology
— and How to Profit
Eric Garland, author of Future Inc.: How Businesses Can Anticipate and Profit from What’s
Next and president of Competitive Futures, Inc. of Washington DC, a consulting firm that
helps executives to understand future trends and create winning strategies, presents these
six important steps necessary to determine future trends in your industry and how to use
these trends to advance your career.
1. Think broadly and see trends outside of your own industry
2. Distinguish between real trends and media noise
3. Evaluate the forecasts of experts
4. Distill strategic implications from the future trend data you’ve gathered
5. Communicate your findings through the power of vibrant scenarios
6. Share your insights with your colleagues — without being shut down
FREE BONUS
When you register to attend this program, you’ll also receive a FREE copy of Eric Garland’s
book, Future Inc.: How Businesses Can Anticipate and Profit from What’s Next, (AMACOM,
2006, $24.95). This FastTrack program will be presented on Thursday, September 20, 2007,
3:00 to 4:30 PM ET. Registration information for this program can be found at:
www.execunet.com/fasttrack
future-focused organization, I believe that minutes a week discussing trends and
every executive in business and govern- forces. The organizations that take advan-
ment should be conversant in these major tage of the future are the ones that make
drivers of change for our common future. foresight part of their managerial culture.
You get extra credit when you can take This can be accomplished by understand-
this knowledge and see profitable new ing the psychological roadblocks that keep
businesses ahead of the curve. you from seeing possible scenarios for
what’s next, and overcoming them so that
Q. What forward-thinking advice do your team regularly discusses the future.
you have for ExecuNet members?
A. Two things spring to mind. First, Q. When your book becomes a best-
think about the parts of the future that seller and every executive embraces
are not sexy. Everybody wants to talk your recommendations and becomes
about flying cars or nanotechnology, the a futurist, what’s in your future?
scientific wonders, because that’s what A. This is a great question — I really
defined the 20th century. But the next love what I do, because the future is the
phase of the future is really going to be one thing we all share in common, and
a limited future, full of aging populations, we have a never-ending supply of it. So
falling water tables and scarce fossil fuels. I plan on being in the business of fore-
That means the world is going to need sight for a while.
more skilled labor, healthcare, clean However, if the whole world becomes
water and energy than it currently has to so future-focused that my services are
go around. These drivers may appear to no longer needed, I’ll get into starting
have more to do with the 19th century businesses based on all the opportunities
than the 21st, but that’s no cause for I see in my studies of the future. Likely
doom and gloom. Think about how the you will find me starting entertainment
next generation of products and services companies for aging Baby Boomers —
will need to adhere to these limits, and combining healthcare and rock concerts,
you’ll see a world of opportunity. that kind of thing. This is a fascinating
More generally, I’d tell ExecuNet time to be alive — full of challenges and
members to make room in their planning endless possibility. I
for the long-range future — even just 15
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